Slide 1: WG Adequacy #12
WG Adequacy #12 28 October 2022
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda Welcome Public consultation on the methodology, the basis data and scenarios used for the study regarding the adequacy and flexibility needs of the Belgian power system for the period 2024-2034 and including also the scenario parameters for the ‘Low Carbon Tender’ 2024-25 Next meetings
Slide 3: Public consultation
Public consultation 28.10.2022 The start of a new cycle...
Slide 4: Agenda
Agenda 1. Context of the Adequacy & Flexibility study (timeline, process, regulatory framework) 2. Methodology General description Adequacy Flexibility Economic viability (incl. study by Prof. Boudt on the hurdle rates) 3. Detailed scenario assumptions Study on residential and tertiary fle
Slide 5: Context of the study
lia Context of the study
Slide 6: Belgian legal & regulatory framework related to this study
Belgian legal & regulatory framework related to this study JUN 2023 Adequacy & Flexibility 2024 – 2034 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 6
Slide 7: High level timeline of the study delivery
High level timeline of the study delivery TODAY 2022 2023 AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN 30/06 Legal publication date 1 month public consultation Comité de Collaboration - CdC (CREG, Federal Planning Bureau & FPS Economie) Note that although not mentioned on this slide, the scenario pro
Slide 8: Scenario, methodology and sensitivities submitted for public consultation
The scenario, methodology and request for sensitivities are submitted for a public consultation of 1 month starting today. Scenario assumptions – A main document describing the different data submitted to the consultation including explanations and sources used to make the different forecasts; – An
Slide 9: Methodology description
lia Methodology description
Slide 10: Agenda
Agenda 1. Context of the Adequacy & Flexibility study (timeline, process, regulatory framework) 2. Methodology General description Adequacy Flexibility Economic viability (incl. study by Prof. Boudt on the hurdle rates) 3. Detailed scenario assumptions Study on residential and tertiary fle
Slide 11: General methodology description
General methodology description
Slide 12: The study will consist of several interlinked parts
The study will consist of several parts which are interlinked Flexibility assessment Scenario Flexibility needs Flexibility Flexibility means reservation Economic dispatch Adequacy Economic Economic results viability results Adequacy assessment Economic assessment 12
Slide 13: Study meets European requirements faster than ENTSO-E plans
This study will meet the European requirements and will implement those faster than what is planned to be implemented by ENTSO-E in the coming years Comparison of the methodology foreseen for the ERAA and Elia’s Adequacy and Flexibility studies Adequacy & Flexibility study 2023 Based on the current
Slide 14: 28 European countries simulated with hourly resolution
The study will look 10 years ahead and 28 European countries will be simulated Today 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Main scenarios analysed for adequacy Detailed analysis and sensitivities for adequacy and economics Detailed analysis and sensitivities for adequacy, econo
Slide 15: Adequacy assessment
ria Adequacy assessment
Slide 16: Adequacy methodology in line with ERAA methodology
The adequacy methodology will be in line with the ERAA methodology. Monte Carlo years ANTARES is a perfect foresight economic Forward looking climate dispatch model, also used by RTE and ENTSO-E database for adequacy and electricity market simulations. (200 climate years) • The forward looking clima
Slide 17: Simulations on several hundreds of Monte-Carlo years
Simulations will be performed on several hundreds of ‘Monte-Carlo’ years. M climate conditions M wind time M solar time M hydro time M load time series series series series • The thermal availability will be reviewed (see later for the study from N-SIDE and the proposed values for outages) • The amo
Slide 18: Iterative process in steps of 100 MW
An iterative process per steps of 100 MW to determine the needed volume to be adequate is performed Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 18
Slide 19: Methodology documents for adequacy assessment
Overview of methodology documents available and submitted to public consultation linked to the adequacy assessment - Unit commitment o Details the unit commitment model used for the adequacy and economic simulations - Adequacy study o Details the way that the adequacy simulations and Monte-Carlo app
Slide 20: Flexibility assessment
ria Flexibility assessment
Slide 21: Methodology overview
Methodology overview The flexibility study is an integrated part of Elia’s adequacy and flexibility study Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 21
Slide 22: Public consultation on the methodology
Public consultation on the methodology Methodology • At this point, Elia has no information which should justify new modifications to the methodology. It welcomes any remarks based on the methodology. •The methodology was presented in specific TF iSR workshops towards the first AdFlex study 2019. •A
Slide 23: Public consultation on the data and assumptions
Public consultation on the data and assumptions Data • Besides new technologies and characteristics based on the end-user flexibility study (electric vehicles, heat pumps and home batteries), no fundamental revisions are proposed to the flexibility characteristics of technologies. • The forced outag
Slide 24: Attention points
Attention points •In its study, Elia will give particular attention to the impact of expected system evolutions : • The impact of the expected offshore wind power development on the flexibility needs • The impact of end-user flexibility on the available flexibility means • The impact of balancing ma
Slide 25: Methodology documents for flexibility assessment
Overview of methodology documents available and submitted to public consultation linked to the flexibility assessment - Flexibility assumptions - Details the assumptions regarding flexibility characteristics of the different technologies - Flexibility methodology - Details the methodology to be used
Slide 26: Economic viability assessment (EVA)
Economic viability assessment (EVA)
Slide 27: EVA methodology further improved in an ERAA-compliant way
The Economic Viability Assessment methodology will be further improved in an ERAA- compliant way • Taking into account risk aversion via the hurdle premium (methodology developed by Prof. Boudt) Economically viable if • Considering that the market price cap can be increased over the lifetime of the
Slide 28: Recap of methodology; hurdle premium updated
Recap of the methodology which is not changed, only the level of the hurdle premium is updated in the new study Economic viability Expected project return > Hurdle rate WACC (cost of capital) Hurdle Premium Based on the classic Capital Asset Pricing The hurdle premium accounts for the following ri
Slide 29: Overview of the proposed hurdle premium
Overview of the proposed hurdle premium Technology Reference WACC Hurdle Premium Hurdle Rate New CCGT 4,9% 5,0% 9,9% New OCGT 4,9% 6,5% 11,4% Existing CCGT (no refurbishment) 4,9% 3,5% 8,4% Existing CCGT (refurbishment) 4,9% 4,5% 9,4% DSM 300 4,9% 4,0% 8,9% DSM 1000 & 2000 4,9% 4,7% 9,6% Wind & sola
Slide 30: Net balancing revenues in the EVA revenues
Net balancing revenues to be considered in the EVA revenues Proposed approach • For the yearly calibration of the CRM, Elia has to provide an estimation of net balancing revenues earned both for netCONE & IPC purposes : • To perform this estimation, Elia follows a methodology established in the Roya
Slide 31: Documents linked to the EVA
Overview of documents available and submitted to public consultation linked to the EVA - Economic Viability Assessment - Details the methodology to perform the economic viability assessment of technologies - Study by Prof. Boudt: “Analysis of hurdle rates for Belgian electricity capacity adequacy an
Slide 32: Scenario assumptions
lia Scenario assumptions
Slide 33: Agenda
Agenda 1. Context of the Adequacy & Flexibility study (timeline, process, regulatory framework) 2. Methodology General description Adequacy Flexibility Economic viability (incl. study by Prof. Boudt on the hurdle rates) 3. Detailed scenario assumptions Study on residential and tertiary fle
Slide 34: Study on residential and tertiary flexibility potential
Study on residential and tertiary flexibility potential presented by Elia & DELTA-EE
Slide 35: Why this study?
Why this study? • In the past, Elia received several comments during public consultations on the lack of consideration of the residential & tertiary flexibility. It is the goal to improve it in the next AdFlex23 thanks to this study; • A first presentation was already given in the last WG Adequacy •
Slide 36: Determining MW and MWh available for flexibility
Goal: Determine the amount of MW & MWh available for flexibility each hour An illustrative example for EVs: Asset Asset Volume + Flexibility + Enablers = Forecast A fleet of EVs natural charging (V0) Control signal Forecast of unlocked flexibility for each scoped year Or Control capability smart cha
Slide 37: Categories and profiles of flexibility
Reminder from last WG Adequacy on 13th October Categories & profile of flex were presented Technology Profile name Description Enablers Electric V0 Natural Charging : charges as soon as plugged-in / Vehicles (EV) V1H Smart charging based on local signal (Home) Smart meter, Smart charger & communicat
Slide 38: Forecast of flex type for EV
Forecast of flex type for EV EV – Flex type penetration Forecast made based on: [% of installed base] • BEV owners to buy smart chargers and 100% with« dumb » chargers replacement 90% every 4 years, infrastructure is planned 80% to be available 70% • Maximum V1H uptake expected 60% with appropriate
Slide 39: Forecast of flex type for HP
Forecast of flex type for HP HP flex type penetration Forecast assuming: [% of installed assets] • HP1H: dynamic contract are 100% already available. 90% If Capacity and/or ToU tariffs come into place, 80% profiles will change based on cost structure. 70% 60% • HP1M: with smart meter rollout, 50% ke
Slide 40: For public consultation (1/2)
For public consultation (1/2) Data in an excel file, full DELTA-EE report in Powerpoint A tab in the Excel of the public consultation – 28/10 1. Tab ‘3.3 DSR end-user’ a. Assumptions on smart metering technology penetration b. Flexibility options (V0, V1H, V1M, etc…) forecasts as % of installed base
Slide 41: For public consultation (2/2)
For public consultation (2/2) Data in an excel file, full DELTA-EE report in Powerpoint A tab in the Excel of the public consultation – 28/10 1. Tab ‘3.3. DSR end-user’ 2. Tab ‘4.4 Flexibility characteristics’ a. Ramp rate [%Pmax/min] b. Maximum upward & downward flexibility [%Pmax] (Ramping, Fast &
Slide 42: Study on outage rates
Study on outage rates presented by Elia & N-SIDE
Slide 43: Forced outages and maintenance
Forced outages and maintenance Study performed in the framework of the Adequacy & Flexibility study to be published in June 2023 October 2022
Slide 44: Adequacy & Flexibility study (Elia, 2021)
Adequacy & Flexibility study (Elia, 2021) Overview of the data from previous study
Slide 45: Where do we come from?
Where do we come from ? In the previous Adequacy & Flexibility study, §3.3.9 described the forced outages and maintenance applied in the model. Those values were also updated on a yearly basis to take the latest data into account. Belgian thermal generation units took into account: - planned unavail
Slide 46: How indicators were calculated in previous AdFlex study
How were the indicators calculated in previous AdFlex study ? Concerning forced outages, an analysis was carried out for each generation type. For generation technologies, these indicators have been calculated using availability data of the last 10 years (from 2011 up to and including 2020). The dat
Slide 47: AdFlex 21 indicators calculation imperfections
AdFlex 21 indicators calculation presented some imperfections • No data available in ETP (ENTSO-E Transparency Platform) before 2015. • ETP dataset is not available for units < 100 MW. • Elia’s internal database only provides a daily granularity. • Some discrepancies were observed between the databa
Slide 48: Objectives
Objectives Oo FE . lia
Slide 49: Objectives
Objectives Consolidate the dataset from ETP and Elia’s internal database Data Quality of the dataset Validation of the indicators with other countries or other sources Calculate required indicators Perform additional analysis on the indicators Provide updated indicators to be used in the
Slide 50: Methodology
Methodology Oo FE . lia
Slide 51: Indicators to be assessed
Indicators to be assessed Planned unavailability Forced outage 𝑇 𝑇 1 𝑃𝑂 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝑡 1 𝐹𝑂 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝑡 Average rate 𝑇 . 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝑡 𝑇 . 𝐹𝑂 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝑡 + 𝐴𝑣𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝑡 𝑡=1 𝑡=1 𝑇 𝑃𝑂𝑡 𝑇 𝐹𝑂𝑡 1 1 1 1 Average duration 𝑇 . 𝑃𝑂𝑡 𝑃𝑂…
Slide 52: Dataset assessed
Dataset assessed ETP Elia DB Transparency Platforms ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (ETP) Elia’s internal database Producer‘s transparency platforms such ENTSO-E Transparency Platform as NordPool, EDF database or Description (entsoe.eu) TotalEnergies Transparency • Legal obligation for units >100 MW t
Slide 53: General Methodology
General Methodology Data Quality Literature Review Elia DB* & pre-processing** Calculation of indicators by technology for BE Final indicators Data Quality Validation of ETP* proposal by & pre-processing** ETP dataset technology Calculation of indicators by technology for EU*** Transparency Platform
Slide 54: Adequacy & Flexibility study (Elia, 2023)
Adequacy & Flexibility study (Elia, 2023) Overview of the indicators proposed for next study
Slide 55: Forced outage rates for CCGT & OCGT
Result of Forced Outage rates for CCGT & OCGT Result CCGT: 5.5% Only ETP data, 20 units for Belgium, 175 for other countries Many units, stable value across years Drop from the FO rates used in the CRM calibration 2027-28 value explained by high outage rates observed in the 2012-2014 period Re
Slide 56: Forced outage rates for CHP & TJ
Results of Forced Outage rates for CHP & TJ Result CHP: 6.4% For Belgium, 26 units from Elia data, 1 from ETP 3 units for other countries ENTSO-E value used is for “conventional gas” category Drop from the FO rates used in the CRM calibration 2027-28 value explained by high outage rates obse
Slide 57: Forced outage rates for PSP & DC links
Result of Forced Outage rates for PSP & DC links Result PSP: 6.8% 1 from Elia data and 1 in ETP for Belgium 87 units for other countries Increase due to inclusion of other countries and a high forced outage rate in 2021 No ENTSO-E reference available No other sources found Result DC links: 6.7
Slide 58: Proposed indicators – Forced outage rates
Proposed indicators – Forced outage Rates Category Average FO rate [%] AdFlex 23 AdFlex 21 ** Nuclear 4.0 %* - 20.5%** 3.7%* CCGT 5.5% 8.4% OCGT 8.2% 9.2% TJ 9.8% 3.6% CHP, waste, 6.4% 7.0% * Pumped Storage 6.8% 4.5% DC links 6.7% 6.0% (in each direction) * only technical FO rate considered ** consi
Slide 59: Proposed indicators – Number of FO per year
Proposed indicators – Number of FO per year Category Number of FO per year AdFlex 23 AdFlex 21 Nuclear 1.3* 1.6* CCGT 9.4 7.0 OCGT 9.2 3.1 TJ 3.2 2.0 CHP, waste, 2.9 3.8 Pumped Storage 6.7 3.0 DC links 1.9 2.0 (in each direction) * only technical FO rate considered Study on FO and maintenance
Slide 60: Proposed indicators – Outage rates
Proposed indicators – Outage Rates Category Average duration of FO rate [hours] AdFlex 23 AdFlex 21 Nuclear 199* 240* CCGT 110 101 OCGT 221 201 TJ 130 82 CHP, waste, 111 124 biomass Pumped Storage 179 181 DC links 158 168 (in each direction) * only technical FO rate considered Study on FO and mainte
Slide 61: Summary of resulting forced outage indicators
Summary of resulting forced outage indicators to be used Category Number of FO per year Average FO rate [%] Average duration of FO rate [hours] Nuclear 1.3* 4.0%* - 20.5%** 199 hours* CCGT 9.4 5.5% 110 hours OCGT 9.2 8.2% 221 hours TJ 3.2 9.8% 130 hours CHP, waste, biomass 2.9 6.4% 111 hours Pumped
Slide 62: Sources used for the literature review
Overview of sources used for the literature review • MA: Monitoring Analytics - 2021 State of the Market Report for PJM, • National Grid: NGESO - Electricity Capacity Report, • NERC - 2021 State of Reliability • REE (ES): Spanish electricity system 2019 report • ENTSO-E common data used in the ERAA
Slide 63: Belgian generation, storage and demand
Belgian generation, storage and demand
Slide 64: General considerations
General considerations – The current context adds several uncertainties on the future assumptions one can make. Several assumptions (e.g. prices) are experiencing high volatility – The goal of the presented values is to get feedback from market parties and ideally challenge the proposed figures with
Slide 65: Scenario definition elements
Scenario definition elements Electricity demand and demand side response Available generation & storage Reference grid and XB capacities Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 65
Slide 66: Forecast of total electricity demand
Forecast of total electricity demand 25/08/2022 – On the WG Adequacy of 25/08/2022 Climact presented the forecast of total electricity demand with focus on 2027/28 in the context of the CRM. This forecast included: – The impact of macro-economic forecasts based on the report published by the Federal
Slide 67: EV trajectory – passenger cars
The latest trends and policies are reflected in the trajectory EV trajectory – passenger cars Assumed evolution of the EV fleet in Belgium (EV + PHEV units) Measure CENTRAL 3,0 ~50% 2,7 Company cars: +/- 1.3 M cars, new sales of +/- 260k/y 2,5 2,5 2,3 235k/y New sales Avg covid years 2,2 ~35% 2,0 ‘L
Slide 68: Other transport segments electrification
Other transport segments assume a slower degree of electrification than in the passenger car segment Assumed evolution of EV+PHEV in the LDV freight fleet (vans) Assumed evolution of EV+PHEV in the HDV freight fleet (trucks) • Total market +/- 850k with +/- 60k sales/y (counted both private & compan
Slide 69: HP trajectory: Residential
The latest trends and policies are reflected in the trajectory HP trajectory: Residential Assumed evolution of the # of heat pumps in Belgium - Residential [Million units] ~25% 1,8 1,69 Measure CENTRAL 1,6 1,6 1,5 Total Dwellings: +/- 5.2M 1,3 1,4 ~18% 1,2 New builds 55k/y (current +/- 55k) Avg last
Slide 70: HP trajectory: Tertiary
The latest trends and policies are reflected in the trajectory HP trajectory: Tertiary Assumed evolution of the # of heat pumps in Belgium - tertiary [Thousand units] 250 ~28% 233 215 Measure CENTRAL 198 200 181 Total buildings: +/- 780k 164 ~17% New builds 5.8k/y 147 Avg last 5y (current +/- 5.8k)
Slide 71: Electricity consumption in Belgium – summary of the proposal
Electricity consumption in Belgium – summary of the proposal including additional electrification from industries and new data centers Evolution of total electricity demand for Belgium [TWh] Normalised, excl. electrolysers, incl. losses and refineries The ranges for additional electrification are ba
Slide 72: Electricity consumption comparison with other recent studies
Electricity consumption for Belgium: comparison with other recent studies Evolution of total electricity demand for Belgium [TWh] Normalised, excl. electrolysers, incl. losses and refineries 141 140 131.4 130 118 120 114 119 110 113.0 107 [TWh] 105.5 100 100.2 90 84.7 80 70 60 2021 2022 2023 2024 20
Slide 73: Demand side response to be taken into account
Demand side response to be taken into account DSR from residential • Cfr study DELTA-EE • Flexibility in EV, HP (and different and tertiary sector mode of optimizing their assets) • Quantified based on historical values (E-CUBE study) assuming that those volumes DSR from existing large are from exis
Slide 74: Proposal for DSR from existing industry/large clients
Proposal for DSR from existing industry/large clients Evolution of DSR capacities for existing industry/large clients to be used in the study – considered as shedding capacity 4 3 1 2 1 Value for winter 2021-22 from the latest E-cube study. 2 Extrapolation from e-cube study, considering a growth rat
Slide 75: Scenario definition elements
Scenario definition elements Electricity demand and demand side response Available generation & storage Reference grid and XB capacities Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 75
Slide 76: PV – proposal for future evolution
PV – proposal for future evolution • An important jump in capacity is expected for 2022. • The high demand for PV has lead to important delays in supply chain and installation. Therefore, not all the expected capacity will be installed in 2022. A yearly increase of 1000 MW per year is also assumed f
Slide 77: Wind onshore – proposal for future evolution
Wind onshore – proposal for future evolution • In Flanders, the yearly increase has recently been updated from 108 MW to 150 MW for 2022 and 2023 [VEKA], while keeping 2500 MW as target for 2030. • In Wallonia, around 70-100 MW is assumed each year from 2022 to 2026 [SPW], with extra potential capac
Slide 78: Offshore wind – proposal for future evolution
Offshore wind – proposal for future evolution • The latest planning of MOG 2 published on the SPF Economie website is used to build the projection • First 700 MW is expected for Q1/Q2 2028; • The other 2800 MW of MOG2 is expected for 2030 • Those developments are under the condition that the necessa
Slide 79: Small scale batteries – proposal for future evolution
Small scale batteries – proposal for future evolution - Bonus/incentive for home battery in Flanders: from max 2550 EUR in 2021 to max 425 EUR in 2024 (stop in 2025). - Around 19,000 bonus were asked in 2021 in Flanders for home batteries, similar amount expected for 2022. Assuming - Battery of 4,5
Slide 80: Large scale batteries – proposal for future evolution
Large scale batteries – proposal for future evolution 3 2 1 1 Capacity ‘in service’ today and capacity already contracted in the CRM Y-4 auction DY 2025/26 (considered ‘in service’ in 2025). Additional potential batteries capacity for each year, based on projects in ‘realization’, with ‘feasibility
Slide 81: Thermal fleet in Belgium – CENTRAL scenario
Thermal fleet in Belgium – proposal for the CENTRAL scenario • Nuclear • Closure of the other nuclear units as planned currently in the law; • 10-year nuclear extension of Doel 4 & Tihange 3 as of winter 2026-27; • Gas • Closure of Vilvoorde ST (2023) and Vilvoorde GT (2025) & Seraing ST (2025); • 2
Slide 82: Scenario definition elements
Scenario definition elements Electricity demand and demand side response Available generation & storage Reference grid and XB capacities Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 82
Slide 83: Evolution of cross border capacity calculation parameters
Proposal for the evolution of cross border capacity calculation parameters Market Parameters 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Flow-based perimeter CORE Bidding zones As Is minRAM See table below Standard Hybrid Coupling Treatment of external flows Advanced Hybrid Coupling
Slide 84: Evolution of offshore cross border capacity with Belgium
Proposal for the evolution of offshore cross border capacity with Belgium * *to be published in a few days Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 84
Slide 85: Economic parameters
lia Economic parameters
Slide 86: Forward prices
Proposal for fuel and CO2 prices General approach: - The latest forwards (27/10/2022) are be proposed. An update will be foreseen in the beginning of 2023 (in the framework of the ‘reality check’ process). - For the long term, the use of the World Energy Outlook 2022 published on 27th of October (ye
Slide 87: Proposal for fuel and CO2 prices
Proposal for fuel and CO2 prices Note that given the volatility of fuel and CO2 prices, sensitivities can be foreseen. Proposed evolution of the gas price [€/MWh] Proposed evolution of the carbon price [€/tCO2] Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 87
Slide 88: Proposal for investment costs
Proposal for investment costs General approach: - AFRY numbers (presented in the last WG Adequacy) and which report will also be submitted to the public consultation, will be taken into account. An aggregation per type of unit will be taken into account. 4000 running hours will be taken as basis for
Slide 89: Other countries' assumption
Other countries’ assumption
Slide 90: General aspects
General aspects • Starting point: European Resource Adequacy Assessment – Edition 2022 (ENTSO-E) – (not yet published) • Complemented by latest policies/published studies* • Discussion / Validation with neighboring TSO’s July 2021 EC published "Fit for 55" package + May 2022 EC published “REPowerEU”
Slide 91: Global trend at European level
Global trend at European level • Electricity demand • Many uncertainties regarding the demand in the short-run, explained by the current geopolitical context. • Significant increase of the demand in the mid and long-run (after 2025) due to additional electrification. • Renewables • Significant incre
Slide 92: EU Assumptions - France
EU Assumptions - France 92 *reduction by a factor 2 of the onshore installed capacity from 2026 compared to ERAA22 (to be further aligned with latest RTE BP public consultation) **to be further aligned with latest RTE BP public consultation
Slide 93: EU Assumptions - Germany
EU Assumptions - Germany + ERAA22 * Easter package (April 2022) * NEP 2023, scenario from 2037 (January 2022) & elia RES Capacity [GW] —_ Onshore Wind Offshore Wind m™ Solar g 300 8 200 _ 38 2° gm <o 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Electricity demand [ 1000 830 800 6
Slide 94: EU Assumptions - Netherlands
EU Assumptions - Netherlands 94
Slide 95: EU Assumptions – United Kingdom
EU Assumptions – United Kingdom 95
Slide 96: EU Assumptions – Denmark
+ Analyseforudszetninger til Energinet (23/09/2022) + Energy Agency revisits cases of planned coal plant closures (01/10/2022) Sia S Capacity [GW] Onshore Wind mOffshore Wind m™ Solar S 30.0 & 20.0 elke 5° a 7 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 64 57 2022 2023 2024 2025
Slide 97: Documents linked to the scenario assumptions
Overview of documents available and submitted to public consultation linked to the scenario assumptions - Main consultation document - Details the assumptions for each technology, sources used. - Excel file containing the scenario data - Gives an overview of the data proposed for the scenario for Be
Slide 98: Agenda
Agenda 1. Context of the Adequacy & Flexibility study (timeline, process, regulatory framework) 2. Methodology General description Adequacy Flexibility Economic viability (incl. study by Prof. Boudt on the hurdle rates) 3. Detailed scenario assumptions Study on residential and tertiary fle
Slide 99: LCT ('Low Carbon Tender') 24-25
LCT (‘Low Carbon Tender’) 24-25
Slide 100: Scenario and parameters for the LCT calibration
As part of the public consultation, the scenario and additional parameters needed for the LCT calibration are also provided – The values for 2024 are corresponding to the values to be used in the context of the LCT (indeed those are corresponding to the values of the period 2024-25). – The comments
Slide 101: Public consultation will start today
Public consultation will start today
Slide 102: Documents submitted for consultation
Documents submitted for consultation • Document providing explanations on the input data • Excel file with detailed input data • 9 comprehensive methodology appendixes • Separate document focusing on 2024-25 for the LCT • AFRY study on fixed costs of existing units • DELTA EE study on residential an
Slide 103: Public consultation on data & methodology: How?
Public consultation on data & methodology: How ? From 28/10 until 28/11/2022 6 PM – Data: – Any feedback is welcome on the proposed values for the CENTRAL scenario – Sensitivities: – As for the previous study, we are open for quantified suggestions for sensitivities from stakeholders. Those will be
Slide 104: Next meetings
lia Next meetings
Slide 105: Foreseen timeslots for next meetings
Foreseen timeslots for next meetings • Thursday 17th November 2022 pm • Friday 16th December 2022 pm • Friday 27th January 2023 am • Friday 17th February 2023 am 105
Slide 106: Have a nice weekend!
1.Have a nice weekend ! Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 106