BP plc · LSE:BP.
BP — Investor Presentation (2015)
31 slides from BP's investor presentation, Nov 12, 2015
Slide 1: Energy Outlook 2035
< ergy Outlook 2035 —
Slide 2: Economic backdrop
Economic backdrop bp GDP Trillion, $2011 PPP 240 m= Other 180 ™Non-OECD Asia m OECD Contribution to GDP growth Trillion $2011 PPP 2013-35 on = Population = Income per person 60 30 0 = OECD Non-OECD Asia Other 120 60 0 1975 1995 2015 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 3: Global energy demand
Global energy demand bp Consumption by region Billion toe 18 15 12 9 6 3 0 1965 2000 2035 Non-OECD Asia energy growth % per annum 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2000-13 Slower GDP growth Faster decline in energy intensity 2013-35 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 4: Global energy demand by sector and fuel
Global energy demand by sector and fuel
Slide 5: Shares of primary energy
bp Shares of primary energy 50% 40% 30% Oil 20% —Coal ° ee —Gas —Hydro 0, Le Nuclear S—= 0% Ss —Renewables* ‘0 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 *Includes biofuels Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 6: Power sector
Power sector bp Inputs to power as a share of total primary energy Primary inputs to power 50% 100% —— 75% 40% 50% Gas 30% 25% Nuclear 20% 0% 1965 2000 2035 1965 2000 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 7: New sources of energy supply
New sources of energy supply bp Production Billion toe 3 = Renewables in power m= Shale gas 2 wTight oil, oil sands, biofuels 0 1990 2005 2020 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 8: New sources of energy supply
New sources of energy supply bp Production Billion toe 3 = Renewables in power m= Shale gas 2 wTight oil, oil sands, biofuels 0 1990 2005 2020 2035 Technically recoverable resources Billion toe 0 20 40 60 Asia Pacific i) North America | S&C America | a Europe & Eurasia | EZ Middle East fj m Tight oi
Slide 9: New sources of energy supply
New sources of energy supply bp Production Billion toe 3 = Renewables in power m= Shale gas 2 wTight oil, oil sands, biofuels 0 1990 2005 2020 2035 Technically recoverable resources Billion toe 20 40 60 0 Asia Pacific a f North America i | Europe & Eurasia | EZ Middle East | Source: © OECD/IEA 2014
Slide 10: Renewables in power generation
Renewables in power generation
Slide 11: Oil and other liquid fuels
bp Oil and other liquid fuels Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 12: Global liquids demand
bp Global liquids demand Demand Mb/d 115 110 +—— 2035 level 105 100 2013 OECD Non-OECD decline growth Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 13: Global liquids demand and supply
Global liquids demand and supply
Slide 14: Tight oil and OPEC balance
Tight oil and OPEC balance bp Tight oil supply growth Share of global liquids growth Mb/d 6 120% 5 Other ae Other 4 80% 40% 2 20% 1 0% 0 -20% 2005-20 2005-20 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 15: Tight oil and OPEC balance
Tight oil and OPEC balance bp Tight oil supply growth Share of global liquids growth Mb/d 6 120% 5 Oth m@ Russia 100% Oth er mS &CAmerica 30% “ 4 = China ° ; Garads & Mexico 60% | 40% 1 0% 0 -20% 2005-20 2020-35 2005-20 2020-35 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 16: Oil trade
bp Oil trade Regional imbalances Net exports Mb/d Mb/d 75 , mMiddle East mFSU 2 China US India m= Europe m= Asia Pacific 0 S™ — 50 . “Africa mwS&C America = N America -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 14 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 17: Natural gas
bp Natural gas Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 18: Global supply and demand for natural gas
bp Global supply and demand for natural gas Production by type and region Bcf/d 500 ‘| Non-OECD other ™Non-OECD shale 400 = OECD shale Consumption by sector = Transport = Other m Power m OECD other = Industry 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 1990 2005 2020 2035 1990 2005 2020 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 © B
Slide 19: Growth of LNG
Growth of LNG bp ie LNG supply Shares of global gas consumption Bef/d a0 Other a0% © Africa Total trade 60 = Australia 30% — ©US m Russia ali 40 @ Oatar 20% Lo 20 10% 0 0% 1990 2005 2020 2035 1990 2005 2020 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 20: Sources of gas supply to Europe
Sources of gas supply to Europe
Slide 21: Key uncertainties
Key uncertainties bp Low GDP growth - what if growth in China and India slows more rapidly than assumed? Geopolitics - what are the implications of heightened geopolitical risks? Climate policies - what if policymakers take more actions to reduce emissions? China’s electrification - what if China’s
Slide 22: Low GDP growth
bp Low GDP growth what if growth in China and India slows more rapidly than assumed? Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 23: Low GDP growth alternative
Low GDP growth alternative bp Differences from base case in 2035 GDP and energy demand Energy demand by fuel 0% 0% oe oe ee .. -5% ° -4% -10% -6% -15% ° 8% 3 mGDP mEnergy “BO 10% -25% -12% World OECD Non-OECD Other Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Renew. Asia & hydro Energy Outlook 2035 ©BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 24: Climate policies
bp Climate policies what if policymakers take more actions to reduce emissions? Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 25: GDP, energy demand and carbon emissions
GDP, energy demand and carbon emissions
Slide 26: GDP, energy demand and carbon emissions
GDP, energy demand and carbon emissions
Slide 27: GDP, energy demand and carbon emissions
GDP, energy demand and carbon emissions
Slide 28: Carbon emissions
Carbon emissions bp Global emissions Billion tonnes CO, 42 30 24 18 IEA 450 12 Scenario 6 0 1965 2000 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 29: Carbon emissions: some possible options
Carbon emissions: some possible options
Slide 30: Conclusion
bp Conclusion Continuous change is the norm for energy markets e Changing energy mix gas fastest growing fossil fuel, coal the slowest continued rapid growth in renewables e Changing energy trade patterns increasingly flowing from West to East e Changing the carbon emissions path? no silver bullet,
Slide 31: Energy Outlook 2035
< ergy Outlook 2035 —