Astral Foods Limited · JSE:ARL
Astral Foods — Investor Presentation (March 2012)
23 slides from Astral Foods's investor presentation, March 2012
Slide 1: Astral Foods Limited Market Update Presentation
Astral Foods Limited Market Update Presentation March 2012
Slide 2: Contact details
Contact details Astral Foods Limited Chris Schutte Tel: +27 (0) 12 667 5468 Chief Executive Officer Fax: +27 (0) 86 504 2002 Tel : +27 (0) 12 667 5468 Astral Foods Corporate Office Fax : +27 (0) 86 504 2002 92 Koranna Avenue, Email: ces@astralfoods.com Doringkloof Centurion, 0157, Gauteng, South Afr
Slide 3: Market Information
Market Information a \ASTRAL
Slide 4: Raw materials – Yellow Maize
Raw materials – Yellow Maize 12Sep1 11Aug11 12Oct11 09Nov11 09Dec11 12Jan12 09Feb12 09Mar12 Comments 1 Corn acres 84.4 84.4 83.9 83.9 83.9 84.0 84.0 84.0 harveste d (mha) Yield drop from 158.7 in Jul11 to Corn 147.1 in Jan12 yield 153.0 148.1 148.1 146.7 146.7 147.1 147.1 147.1 due to adverse (bu/a)
Slide 5: Raw materials – Soybeans
Raw materials – Soybeans 12Sep1 11Aug11 12Oct11 09Nov11 09Dec11 12Jan12 09Feb12 09Mar12 Comments 1 Soybean acres 73.8 73.8 73.7 73.7 73.7 73.6 73.6 73.6 (mha) Yield drop from 43.4 in Jul11 to Soybean 41.5 in Jan12 due to adverse yield 41.4 41.8 41.5 41.3 41.3 41.5 41.5 41.5 weather resulting (bu/a)
Slide 6: Safex Yellow Maize price from October 2004
Safex Yellow Maize price from October 2004 Source: CJA Strategic Risk Brokers 6
Slide 7: Safex Yellow Maize vs CBOT Corn in Rand terms
Safex Yellow Maize vs CBOT Corn in Rand terms Source: CJA Strategic Risk Brokers 7
Slide 8: Poultry imports
Poultry imports February 2012 (tons) 2011 (tons) Var (tons) Var (%) Chicken 22 099 15 899 6 200 39.0 + 29% MDM/Turkey 14 211 8 057 6 154 76.4 Total 36 310 23 956 12 354 51.6 YTD F2012 (tons) F2011 (tons) Var (tons) Var (%) Chicken 104 342 73 703 30 639 41.6 MDM/Turkey 68 905 53 726 15 179 28.3 Total
Slide 9: Total poultry imports - chicken, turkey and MDM
Total poultry imports - chicken, turkey and MDM Tons 350,000 300,000 +36% 250,000 y on y 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 F2009 F2010 F2011 F2012 0 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Monthly Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep (tons) F2011 24 684 23 424 28 403 26 963 23 955 29
Slide 10: Poultry imports per month
Poultry imports per month Tons 40,000 + 29% 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - OND J FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASOND J F 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 10
Slide 11: Per capita consumption: South Africa
Per capita consumption: South Africa Kg 40.0 36.1 35.0 33.0 31.5 31.8 30.7 31.0 30.0 27.9 25.0 21.7 20.0 17.4 17.6 17.7 15.9 16.4 15.8 16.6 13.8 15.0 10.0 8.9 9.4 7.2 7.8 8.3 8.3 8.5 8.2 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.6 4.6 5.0 2.8 3.2 3.4 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.2 2.7 - 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Chi
Slide 12: Industry broiler selling prices
10.00 11.00 12.00 13.00 14.00 15.00 16.00 17.00 9.00 Source: Apr-06 10.38 10.59 Jun-06 10.56 10.42 Industry Rand per kg Aug-06 11.12 10.79 Oct-06 11.36 12.05 Dec-06 12.45 11.75 Broiler sales Feb-07 11.24 11.88 Apr-07 12.20 12.42 Jun-07 12.29 12.35 Aug-07 12.70 12.39 SAPA trends and statistics | Oct-
Slide 13: Broiler price vs maize price vs feed price vs imports
Broiler price vs maize price vs feed price vs imports Rand per kg Rand & tons 17.00 4500 16.50 4000 16.00 3500 15.50 15.00 3000 14.50 2500 14.00 2000 13.50 13.00 1500 12.50 1000 12.00 500 11.50 11.00 0 Dec-06 Jun-07 Oct-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Jun-11
Slide 14: Broiler price vs food price inflation
Broiler price vs food price inflation Rand per kg 17.00 130 16.50 125 16.00 120 15.50 115 15.00 14.50 110 14.00 105 13.50 100 13.00 95 12.50 90 12.00 11.50 85 11.00 80 Oct-06 Dec-06 Feb-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07 Feb-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Jun-10
Slide 15: Anti-dumping tariffs
Anti-dumping tariffs USA Bone-in portions / leg quarters • General tariff and rate of duty on bone-in portions: 220 c/kg • In addition, an anti-dumping duty on US producers: Tyson 224 c/kg, Gold Kist 245 c/kg & others 696 c/kg Brazil Boneless cuts • General tariff and rate of duty on boneless cuts:
Slide 16: Brazil provisional anti-dumping duty
Brazil provisional anti-dumping duty % of Brazil imports affected - 5 months ending February (F2012) • % boneless cuts 6.1 % • % frozen whole 10.4 % • % of Brazil 16.6 % [≈ 8.8% of Total imports] % imports by country - 2011 16
Slide 17: Brazil provisional anti-dumping duty
Brazil provisional anti-dumping duty Influence on local importers? • Minimal impact expected on local importers through the imposition of the Brazilian provisional anti-dumping duty • The two categories on which the additional duty is applied are small • Importers will likely source these products e
Slide 18: Brazil benchmark – broiler efficiencies (2011)
Brazil benchmark – broiler efficiencies (2011) BRAZIL USA ASTRAL Age days 35 35 35 + 29% Live weight kg 1 883 1 805 1 840 Average daily gain g/day 53.81 51.59 52.56 Mortality % 3.14 2.37 4.52 Feed conversion ratio 1.658 1.802 1.671 PEF factor 314 280 301 18 Source: Astral, trends Industry USDA and &
Slide 19: Astral broiler production performance
Astral broiler production performance 106% 104% 102% 100% (37.8 days) 98% 96% 94% (34.7 days) 92% Key indicators baselined to 100% in 2007 90% F2007 F2008 F2009 F2010 F2011 YTDF2012 Slaughter age Live weight Processing yield 19
Slide 20: Competition commission matters
Competition commission matters Specific allegations – Astral Foods Astral currently negotiating one settlement to close all open matters Poultry industry investigation - 2009 The industry wide investigation into the animal feed and poultry industry initiated in 2009 is on-going 20
Slide 21: Outlook – short term
Outlook – short term Negative Positive High industry chicken stock levels Anti-dumping tariff application and provisional anti-dumping duties on Brazil High imports (Brazilian leg quarters) Upward price potential and long term upward Maize price gap closing – old vs new season trend in chi
Slide 22: Q&A
“ASTRAL NationalChicks Moe than just fond east balt.sa & | eampysive => egnutec (2) TICERCcs Q&A
Slide 23: DISCLAIMER
DISCLAIMER The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled or arrived at by Astral Foods from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made to their accuracy, completeness or appropriateness. All opinions