Asml Holding Nv · EURONEXT:ASML
Asml Holding Nv — Deutsche Bank European Technology Conference 2006
25 slides from Asml Holding Nv's conference presentation, Oct 4, 2006
Slide 1: European Technology Conference
European Technology Conference Deutsche Bank London – Sept 8, 2006 Eric Meurice, CEO
Slide 2: Safe Harbor
Safe Harbor “Safe Harbor” Statement under the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: the matters discussed in this presentation may include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties including, but not limited to: economic conditions, product demand and se
Slide 3: ASML today
ASML today Market Update Lithography leadership Long term trajectory
Slide 4: Market Update
Market Update
Slide 5: Most business drivers point to sustained ASML revenues mid term
Most business drivers point to sustained ASML revenues mid term IC Semiconductor unit growth Inventory, Utilization and Lithography purchasing intensity Balanced Segmentation Market Share opportunity
Slide 6: Semiconductor Units history and forecast
Semiconductor Units history and forecast 2006 Semiconductor growth driven by higher unit sales (+16%) 25% -21% 14% 9% 18% 4% 16% 7% Semiconductor unit Forecats Semiconductor Units Unit Trend Source: ASML MCC
Slide 7: Semiconductor Growth Forecast 2006-2007
Semiconductor Growth Forecast 2006-2007 External analysts forecast +5% to +18% for 2007 => positive outlook Consensus: 9.0% 11.4% Semiconductor revenue forecast 2006 & 2007 8.9% 19.0% 9.0% 12.0% 10.0% 17.8% 11.0% 4.9% 11.0% 10.6% 14.0% 8.0% 7.9% 7.6% 7.9% 4.7% 12.0% 9.8% 8.8% 10.1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Slide 8: IC unit sales and inventory
IC unit sales and inventory Inventories reasonably under control Source: WSTS, VLSIResearch, ASML Last data point: June 2006 IC unit sales and inventory - IC inventory 3mma IC unit Sales 3mma IC unit sales corrected for Inventory
Slide 9: Utilization remains high and is under constant monitor
Utilization remains high and is under constant monitor Sources: SiCAS (August 2006) Quarter Memory utilization Foundry utilization
Slide 10: Expose & Write Bookings and Billings as % of Semiconductor sales
Expose & Write Bookings and Billings as % of Semiconductor sales 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% E&W bookings as % of Semi $Sadj 3MMA E&W billings as % of Semi $ Sadj 3MMA Litho Bookings and Billings as % of Semiconductor Revenue Relative spending rising but within controlled range Source: SEMI, WSTS, ASML Las
Slide 11: New fab capacity and equipment take-in by customer
Max.Capacity [KWSPM] Node [nm] Wafer size [mm] Main application Name of Factory Customer Quarter/Year equipment take-in Memory/Flash SP-1 SPANSION Q1/2007 350-180 Logic Fab 11 SMIC Q1/2007 Memory/Flash M11/R3 HYNIX Q3/2006 Micro Fab 32 INTEL Q4/2006 Memory/Flash Fab 2 (Lehi) IM Flash Q3/2006 Logic F
Slide 12: Growth from Multiple independent Segments
Growth from Multiple independent Segments Each Segment with its own investment cycle Flash shrink - 12 to 15 month investment cycle DRAM – closely follows Flash investment cycle Foundries represent classic supply/demand cycle Moore’s law, 18 to 24 months - invest for new product development - volume
Slide 13: Market share gains through immersion lithography and value of ownership
Market share gains through: Immersion lithography Superior Value of Ownership ArF, KrF and I-line Japan 8” & i-line 6” & early i-line Market share growth opportunity 12” & ArF KrF & Step & Scan 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2 002 2005 ArF immersion Source: Gartner Data
Slide 14: Strong Drivers leading to ASML Guidance Upside
Strong Drivers leading to ASML Guidance Upside (press release 9/06/06) Q3 ’06 Bookings at about Q2 ‘06 order intake level - In Q2 ASML booked 93 orders Strong demand from memory makers Bookings across ASML 300mm product line Bookings support customer’s New Fab ramps 75% of new orders will be for shi
Slide 15: Lithography Leadership
Lithography Leadership
Slide 16: ASML overview
Dataquest SEMI VLSIR* ASML overview The world’s leading supplier of Lithography equipment Leaders in Innovation ASML TWINSCAN Key facts: Headquarters: Veldhoven, the Netherlands Revenue 2005 ~ €2.5 B Market cap ~ €7.75 B Employees 5200 Growing market share (revs) 2000 34.6% 32.9% 34.9% 2001 29.0% 31
Slide 17: ASML's Productivity leadership
ASML’s Productivity leadership * 300mm wafers 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 ASML ArF ASML ArFi Competitor ArF Competitor ArFi
Slide 18: ASML Leadership - R&D costs versus total sales
ASML Leadership - R&D costs versus total sales 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 R&D costs exclude settlement with Nikon Corp. in 2004 and reflect costs for continuing operations
Slide 19: TWINSCAN creating value in all applications
TWINSCAN ™ creating value in all applications XT:1700Fi Resolution: 45nm Throughput: 122wph Volume manufacturing immersion ASML market share in 2005 i-line 29% KrF 51% ArF wet + dry 68% XT:400F Resolution: 350nm Throughput: 135wph Lowest CoO in 300mm i-line XT:760F Resolution: 130nm Throughput: 134w
Slide 20: Long-Term Trajectory
Long-Term Trajectory
Slide 21: Expose & Write as % of Total Equipment
Source: SEMI Last data point: June 2006 Expose & Write as % of Total Equipment Litho share of equipment approaching 18% level ! Expose & Write Equipment Sales as % of Total Equipment Sales 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% Expose & Write as % of Total Equipment Expon. (Expose & Write as % of Total
Slide 22: Lithography Equipment - a growing market with three major value drivers
Lithography Equipment - a growing market with three major value drivers Accelerating roadmap forcing more complexity… ASP increase not compensated by throughput …and more processing layers Alternative shrink solutions (Spacer, 3D, Vertical gates) Double Patterning …with increased Performance Overlay
Slide 23: Natural growth potential towards 4-5 B € range
Natural growth potential towards 4-5 B € range ASML’s opportunity window ASML press release: Revenue 2006 ~40% increase y-o-y ASML’s growth potential Average WW litho sales ASML’s potential Status quo Assumption: 9% IC unit growth/year Source: Average of Dataquest, VLSI Research and ASML fab based m
Slide 24: ASML is well positioned for value generation
ASML is well positioned for value generation Business Model based on Technology Leadership enabled by accumulated experience and scale Semiconductor cycle effect reduced by Moderate cycles – as forecasted by analyst community for 2006-2007 Market share gains Variable cost structure allowing signific
Slide 25: Commitment
Commitment
Asml Holding — Deutsche Bank European Technology Conference 2006 on 6ix