Blue Bird Corporation · NASDAQ:BLBD
Blue Bird — Investor Presentation (May 2024)
39 slides from Blue Bird's investor presentation, May 2024
Slide 1: Blue Bird Corporation Investor Presentation May 2024
“A Leader in zero- and low-emission transportation” BLUE BIRD CORPORATION (NASDAQ: BLBD) Investor Presentation May 2024
Slide 2: Important Disclaimers
Important Disclaimers Forward Looking Statements This presentation includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the “safe harbor” provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements relate to expectations for future financial performance,
Slide 3: Important Disclaimers: Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Important Disclaimers Non-GAAP Financial Measures This presentation may include the following non-GAAP financial measures: “Adjusted EBITDA,” "Adjusted EBITDA Margin," “Adjusted Net Income,” “Adjusted Diluted Earnings per Share,” “Free Cash Flow” and “Adjusted Free Cash Flow.” Adjusted EBITDA is def
Slide 4: Agenda
Agenda Investment Highlights School Bus Industry Overview Company & Product Highlights FY2024 Objectives Growth Runway 4
Slide 5: Investment Highlights
Investment Highlights Countercyclical Strong industry growth ahead with a backdrop of healthy funding and an aging school bus fleet National Commitment Beneficiary of $5B US Government’s commitment to the electrification of school buses The Leader Leading market position in alternative power and ele
Slide 6: School Bus Industry Overview
School Bus Industry Overview 6
Slide 7: Industry Highlights
Industry Highlights OEMs School Bus Customers Lion ~3,400 Contractors 500k+ Thomas Blue Bird ~10,000 School Districts IC High barriers to entry Highly specialized product -- Complex state and customer requirements -- Dealer and service network -- Customer relationship driven business Demand Drivers
Slide 8: Type C & D School Bus Industry
Type C & D School Bus Industry ▪ Industry avg size is 30,500 new units annually based on Polk registrations ▪ Total fleet of school buses is ~515,000 units and average age is about 10 years ▪ Industry size is driven by: ▪ Number of school age children ▪ Age of existing fleet – most states set 15 yea
Slide 9: Fleet Age Profile Supports Industry Levels
Fleet Age Profile Supports Industry Levels ~515K School Buses on the Road as of the end of CY2022 40,000 43%+ of the fleet is 35,000 10 years and older 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 ~221K bus
Slide 10: Company & Product Highlights
Company & Product Highlights 10
Slide 11: Introduction to Blue Bird
Introduction to Blue Bird ▪ Headquartered in Macon, Georgia Dedicated Manufacturing Micro Bird JV Facility ▪ Leader in alternative power; #1 in electric & propane school buses (Drummondville, Quebec, Canada) ▪ 60%+ of Blue Bird sales are non-diesel; <10-20% for competitors Footprint Parts Distributi
Slide 12: Proven Leadership in Clean Technologies
Proven Leadership in Clean Technologies ▪ Proven track record of leadership in new technologies; more than 60% of unit sales are non- diesel ▪ Leader in electric and propane- powered school buses; the future of school transportation ▪ $5B of Federal funding secured in the infrastructure bill for ele
Slide 13: Abundance of Federal Funding for EV School Buses
Abundance of Federal Funding for EV School Buses The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law of 2021 authorizes EPA to offer rebates and grants to New Program announced, utilizing Inflation replace existing school buses with clean / zero-emission models – $5B Funding over 5 years: Reduction Act funding: EPA C
Slide 14: Build Complete Ecosystem for EV School Bus Deployment
Build Complete Ecosystem for EV School Bus Deployment END OF LIFE ASSESSMENT Determine recycling program for Determine what bus best fits the used batteries after use customer’s needs based on terrain, climate and route planning SERVICE & SUPPORT FINANCING Connect with dealer and EV system Identify
Slide 15: Fueling Our EV Long-Term Growth: Fleet-as-a-Service JV
Fueling Our EV Long-Term Growth: Fleet-as-a-Service JV ➢ Formed “Clean Bus Solutions” – 50/50 JV with Generate Capital and Blue Bird to accelerate electric school bus adoption; exclusive to Blue Bird customers and dealers ➢ Buses purchased By JV through dealer network ➢ Offers affordable monthly ser
Slide 16: FY2024 Objectives
FY2024 Objectives 16
Slide 17: 2024 Priorities Align with Our Strategy
2024 Priorities Align with Our Strategy Leader in Safety Best Great Products Service & Features Sustained Profitable Growth 8% 12% 14%+ EBITDA Margin Highest Competitive Quality & Cost Durability Alt Power Leader Our core strategies drive our plans towards profitable growth 17
Slide 18: Significant Investments Ramping-up in 2024
Significant Investments Ramping-up in 2024 Products and Powertrain Manufacturing and Supply Chain People and Processes • Next gen Ford Gas / Propane • Evaluate capacity expansion • Inflationary pressures and labor • Product enhancements for EV • Production facility updates • Competitive employee ben
Slide 19: FY2024 Guidance Raised to $155M and 12% EBITDA
FY2024 Guidance Raised to $155M and 12% EBITDA 1 +67 Adj. EBITDA (+75%) ($M) 155 145 - 165 FY24 Updated Scenarios Downside Guidance Upside FY24 Q3-Q4: 88 Supply Chain Qtr. Revenue $300 - $350M Units 8,600 8,800 9,000 Adj. EBITDA Revenue $M $1,275 $1,300 $1,325 $25 - $35M 9% - 11% Adj. EBITDA $M $145
Slide 20: FY2024 Guidance Raised to $155M and 12% EBITDA
FY2024 Guidance Raised to $155M and 12% EBITDA FY2023 FY2024 FY2024 B/(W) $ Millions Actuals Feb. May Updated Vs. Prior Year Guidance Guidance Net Revenue $1,133 $1,150 - $1,250 $1,275 - $1,325 $142 - $192 Adj. EBITDA1 $88 $120 - $140 $145 - $165 $57 - $77 Adj. Free Cash Flow1 $121 $60 - $70 $70 - $
Slide 21: Capital Allocation Update – Revolver Balance at $0
Capital Allocation Update – Revolver Balance at $0 Sources of Cash Uses of Cash Cash Flow from Operations FY24 R&D Expenditures <$25M Growth (incl. Tax, Interest, ∆WoC; excl. R&D) ~$158M CAPEX (incl. maintenance) <$25M JV CBS / Small M&A <$25M Existing Cash at YE23 ~$77M Total Funds Shareholders Ava
Slide 22: Wrap-Up: Record Profit Outlook in FY2024 & Beyond
Wrap-Up: Record Profit Outlook in FY2024 & Beyond NA School Bus Industry Thousands Bookings 3%+ = ~8,800 units Class 6-7* 39.6 39.9 40.5 38.7 36.8 36.1 36.6 35.8 33.0 Revenue 15%+ = ~$1.3 Billion 29.6 30.5 26.4 25.7 ~7% Adj. EBITDA 75%+ = ~$155 Million CAGR Adj. EBITDA 4 ppts+ = ~12% Margin EV Booki
Slide 23: Solid Growth Runway
Solid Growth Runway 23
Slide 24: We Are Raising the Bar on Our Long Term Outlook to 14%+
We Are Raising the Bar on Our Long Term Outlook to 14%+ Revenue $M Diesel Gas/Propane EV New Outlook New Outlook Units May Rev. Updated Short/Mid Term Long Term $M 11,317 11,646 Guidance 12,000 12,000 11,017 11,000 3,000 9,500 10,000 10,000 8,878 8,514 8,800 2,500 8,000 6,679 6,822 $1,850 $2,000 2,0
Slide 25: We Are Raising the Bar on Our Long Term Outlook to 14%+
We Are Raising the Bar on Our Long Term Outlook to 14%+ Units Revenue $M Diesel Gas/Propane EV QTR Full YR May New Outlook New Outlook Rev. Updated Short/Mid Term Long Term $M Guidance 12,000 2,500 2,304 2,254 400 12,000 11,000 3,000 2,137 2,116 2,129 10,000 1,957 10,000 8,800 9,500 2,000 350 8,514
Slide 26: Strong Outlook Ahead for Blue Bird / Investment Highlights
Strong Outlook Ahead for Blue Bird / Investment Highlights Countercyclical Strong industry growth ahead with a backdrop of healthy funding and an aging school bus fleet National Commitment Beneficiary of $5B US Government’s commitment to the electrification of school buses The Leader Leading market
Slide 27: Appendix
Appendix 27
Slide 28: Best-Ever Second Quarter Results – Key Takeaways
Best-Ever Second Quarter Results – Key Takeaways All-Time Q2 Record Profit; All-Time Record Quarterly Revenue; Increasing Full Year Guidance Robust Market Demand; Significantly Increasing Our Strong Backlog Supply Chain Largely Stable; Highly Engaged with Two Key Constrained Suppliers Substantially
Slide 29: FY2024 Q2 Financial Results and Key Business Highlights
FY2024 Q2 Financial Results and Key Business Highlights FY2024 Q2 Results BUSINESS HIGHLIGHTS FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Alt. Power Sales UNITS NET Mix of 55%; 255 Unit Propane SOLD SALES Strong 60% YTD Order for Omaha Public Schools ~$850M 2,254 $346M Backlog of 5.9k Units1 EV (50) vs.’23 $46M vs.’23 Boo
Slide 30: FY2024 Q2 and YTD Financial Results
FY2024 Q2 and YTD Financial Results FY2024 Q2 Results FY2024 H1 Results QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS FIRST HALF HIGHLIGHTS UNITS NET UNITS NET SOLD SALES SOLD SALES 2,254 $346M 4,383 $664M (50) vs.’23 $46M vs.’23 122 vs.’23 $128M vs.’23 Adjusted Adjusted Adjusted Adjusted EBITDA FCF EBITDA FCF $46M $54M $93
Slide 31: Income Statement
Income Statement ($ Millions) FY2024-Q2 FY2023-Q2 B/(W) Unit Volume 2,254 2,304 (50) Backlog Units / $ Revenue 5,904 / $849M 5,783 / $777M 121 / $72M Net Revenue $345.9 $299.8 $46.1 Bus Rev./Unit ($000's) $141.1 $118.7 $22.4 / 18.9% Gross Margin 18.4% 11.9% 6.5 ppts Adj. EBITDA1 $45.8 $21.1 $24.7 Ad
Slide 32: FY23-Q2 to FY24-Q2 Adj. EBITDA Walk: +$25M YoY
FY23-Q2 to FY24-Q2 Adj. EBITDA Walk: +$25M YoY ($ Millions) +24.7 Unit Volumes FY23-Q2 2,304 33.1 FY24-Q2 2,254 1.5 Delta (50) 45.8 (6.6) (3.3) Higher Rev. t/o EV Volumes Labor and Margins FY23-Q2 135 Labor Costs Costs FY24-Q2 210 SG&A and Delta 75 Engineering 21.1 Pricing, EV Mix 7.0% 13.2% FY23-Q2
Slide 33: FY23-H1 to FY24-H1 Adj. EBITDA Walk: +$76M YoY
FY23-H1 to FY24-H1 Adj. EBITDA Walk: +$76M YoY ($ Millions) +75.9 Unit Volumes FY23-H1 4,261 81.5 0.0 2.6 FY24-H1 4,383 93.4 Delta 122 Higher Rev. (8.2) and Margins t/o EV Volumes Labor Costs FY23-H1 227 SG&A and FY24-H1 416 Engineering Delta 189 17.5 Pricing, 3.3% EV Mix 14.1% FY23-H1 Bus Vol., Bus
Slide 34: Balance Sheet and Cash Flow
Balance Sheet and Cash Flow ($ Millions) FY2024-Q2 FY2023-Q2 B/(W) Cash $93.1 $17.8 $75.3 Debt $(97.3) $(139.6) $42.3 Liquidity $236.4 $101.5 $134.9 Operating Cash Flow $54.6 $24.8 $29.8 Adj. Free Cash Flow1 $53.7 $23.4 $30.3 Trade Working Capital2 $22.1 $7.0 $15.1 Very strong Operating Cash Flow fo
Slide 35: TTM Performance Shows Sustained Profitable Growth
TTM Performance Shows Sustained Profitable Growth Rev. $294 $303 $318 $346 $1,261 $M 1 ~165 Adj. EBITDA ✓ Consistent Revenue in the $300M range and growing ✓ Improved EV mix and Pricing realization maintained ✓ We beat and raised guidance for the last five quarters ✓ Record levels of 10%-15% Adj. EB
Slide 36: Adj. EBITDA Reconciliation
Adj. EBITDA Reconciliation 36
Slide 37: Free Cash Flow Reconciliation
Free Cash Flow Reconciliation 37
Slide 38: Adjusted EPS Reconciliation
Adjusted EPS Reconciliation 38
Slide 39: Investor Relations Contact Information
Investor Relations Contact Information Mark Benfield Mark.Benfield@Blue-Bird.com 39