31 slides from Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.s's earnings presentation, Nov 4, 2021
Slide 1: Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation
Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation 4 November 2021 Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 2: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by variables and changes in und
Slide 3: Q3 2021 Tüpraş Highlights
Q3 2021 Tüpraş Highlights $/bbl Q3 8,0 Strong rebound in cracks restored net refining margin to pre-covid levels 6,0 5,9 4,0 • Ongoing improvement in distillate demand and normalizing inventories 3,6 4,6 4,0 2,1 resulted in strong cracks 0,9 1,5 1,2 0,7 2,0 0,0 • Despite normalized inventory effect,
Slide 4: Market
Market Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 5: Q3 2021 – Key Market Highlights
Q3 2021 – Key Market Highlights Global product inventories significantly declined while road fuel Global commercial flight numbers continue to improve towards demand continued to improve in Q3, moving cracks up pre-covid levels Global Oil Market mn bbl Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Slide 6: Quarterly Crack Margin Comparison ($/bbl) 2016 - 2021
Quarterly Crack Margin Comparison ($/bbl) 2016 - 2021 Improving trend of demand and lower stock levels of oil products supported mid distillate cracks. Gasoline cracks hit last 5-year highs with capacity shutdowns related to Hurricane Ida 2021 2020 2016-2020 Min - Max Diesel Jet Fuel Air traffic sta
Slide 7: Heavy Crude Price Differentials to Brent ($/bbl)
Heavy Crude Price Differentials to Brent ($/bbl) Differentials widened slightly in Q3 and the trend goes on after OPEC+’s agreement on easing cuts by 2 mb/d between Aug-Dec. 2 00 -2 Arab Heavy -4 Basrah Heavy Kirkuk -6 Ural -8 Average* -10 Iran OPEC+ Cut OPEC+ OPEC+ Cut Sanctions Decision disagreeme
Slide 8: Operations
Operations Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 9: Capacity Utilization and Quarterly Production Volume
Capacity Utilization and Quarterly Production Volume • Tüpraş produced 6.9 million tons in Q3 2021. • Capacity utilization for Q3 2021 was 96% - higher both on y-o-y and q-o-q Quarterly Production (Million Tons) Capacity Utilization (%) 2018 2019 2020 2021 Crude Oil Semi Product Feedstock Total 8 10
Slide 10: Product Sales in Q3 (Million Tons)
Product Sales in Q3 (Million Tons) Tüpraş generated 8 million tons of sales in Q3 2021. Jet fuel and gasoline sales were strong with improved domestic demand. Total product sales increased 19% y-o-y, 2% higher than same quarter 2019 levels. Total Product Sales Domestic Sales of Selected Products Dom
Slide 11: Financials
Financials Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 12: Tüpraş Net Margin and Med Complex Margin Comparison ($/bbl)
Tüpraş Net Margin and Med Complex Margin Comparison ($/bbl) Q3 Margins Tüpraş Net Med Margin 13,5 8,9 • Tüpraş net refining margin was significantly 6,5 5,1 5,9 better y-o-y, supported with stronger crack 4,0 margins and wider differentials. 3,3 2,8 2,1 -2,0 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 2020 Q3 2021 E
Slide 13: Income Statement (Million TL)
Income Statement (Million TL) EBITDA realized as 2,739 mn TL in Q3 2021. Q3 Q3 9M 9M Million TL % 2021 2020 % 2021 2020 Net Sales 40,993 17,035 141% 94,502 43,254 118% COGS -37,935 -15,845 -139% -86,952 -42,083 -107% Gross Profit 3,058 1,190 157% 7,549 1,171 545% Operating Expenses -782 -500 -57% -2
Slide 14: Q3 Profit Before Tax Bridge (2021-2020)
Q3 Profit Before Tax Bridge (2021-2020) In spite of devaluated TL, Q3 2021 PBT performed strongly with increase in total sales volume, better crack margins, widening differentials and lower interest expenses. Million TL 99,593 1155,0 706,816 754,344 1322,486 -556,0 -923,239 -249,0 Q3 2020 PBT Invent
Slide 15: Financial Highlights
Financial Highlights EBITDA (mn TL) Net Income¹ (mn TL) 7.021 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 3.812 3.713 1.887 493 6.421 1.927 4.645 992 1.766 988 1.237 542 526 3.778 2.739 1.457 3.301 186 -2.494 1.027 1.700 1.528 738 869 870 378 376 956 545 -375 -760 1.542 2.512 2.210 -155 1.495 383 -2.265 1.575 977 1.033
Slide 16: Balance Sheet Analysis
Balance Sheet Analysis Net Debt Redemption Schedule (Billion TL) bn TL bn $ In Billion TL In Billion $ TL Hard Currency 20 17,8 6 12,4 5 15 12,5 9,4 12,0 12,2 4 11,0 11,3 9,4 9,3 6,3 10 8,4 3 6,2 2 5 2,3 2,3 1,9 1 1,6 1,7 1,4 1,6 1,5 0,3 1,3 1,3 0,0 1,0 0 0 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20
Slide 17: FX Exposure Management (30 September 2021)
FX Exposure Management (30 September 2021) Consolidated Hard Consolidated Hard Currency Assets Currency Liabilities Million $ Payables & Other Cash Liabilities 506 3,425 Tüpraş continues to employ strict FX Receivables & Other Assets ST Financial Loans policies to mitigate currency risks 79 660 • RU
Slide 18: Outlook for 2021
Outlook for 2021 Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 19: 2021 Refinery Maintenance Schedule
2021 Refinery Maintenance Schedule Refinery Unit Starting Quarter Duration (weeks) Purpose Status Batman Crude Oil & Vacuum Q1 7* Seasonal Done Crude Unit Q1 9 Done CCR Q1 10 Done Revamp / Opportunity FCC Q1 9 Done Maintenance İzmir Isomerization Q1 10 Done Desulphurizer Q1 11 Done Vacuum Q4 6 Perio
Slide 20: 2021 Expectations
2021 Expectations Med Complex Refining Margin 1.5-2.0 $/bbl Tüpraş Net Refining Margin 4.5-5.0 $/bbl • 25-26 mt production, 26-27 mt sales and 85 - 90% capacity utilization Consolidated Capex ~175 million $ • ~50% of capex for sustainability focused energy efficiency and environmental projects 17/02
Slide 21: 9M 2021 Results
9M 2021 Results Capacity Utilization (%) Refining Margins ($/bbl) 9M 2021 84,1 84% total capacity utilization in 9M 2021 Med Margin Tüpraş Net Margin Med FY Tüpraş FY 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Exp Target Operationals 1,0 9M 2021 FY Target 19.6 mn tons of sales 27 9M 2021 26 and 18.1 mn tons o
Slide 22: www.tupras.com.tr
www.tupras.com.tr 17/02/2022 Hizmete Özel / Confidential www.tupras.com.tr 22 Earnings Presentation
Slide 23: Appendix
Appendix Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 24: Turkish Market, 8M 2021
Turkish Market, 8M 2021 Diesel Jet1 2,1 Jul - Aug Q2 Q1 16,8 15,9 +83.0% Million -1.5% 1,5 Tons 0,8 4,9 5,0 0,4 +18.4% +258.5% 6,3 0,2 0,7 5,3 +0.6% -36.2% 0,9 5,6 5,6 0,6 2020 2021 2020 2021 LPG Gasoline 1,8 2,6 +3.2% 2,6 1,5 +25.0% 0,8 0,8 0,7 +9.6% 0,5 +40.4% 0,8 0,9 0,5 0,6 -7.9% -5.0% 0,9 0,5 0
Slide 25: OPET
OPET Opet has 1,792 fuel stations as of September 2021 end. Opet Sunpet 1.766 1.792 Market Share 1.670 as of August 2021 1.615 1.560 1.504 1.444 579 1.325 1.356 1.393 495 563 17.5 % 12.1% 1.279 434 463 431 427 435 410 418 White Black 394 Product Product 1.126 1.152 1.175 1.203 1.213 915 938 966 1.00
Slide 26: Crack Margin Effect on Tüpraş in Q3 (FOB Italy Prices)
Crack Margin Effect on Tüpraş in Q3 (FOB Italy Prices) Product Price ($/ton) Tüpraş Crack Margin ($/bbl) Product Production Q3 2021 Q3 2020 Q3 2021 Q3 2020 Yields LPG 635 316 4,7% -17,0 -14,8 Gasoline 717 396 21,9% 14,8 5,8 Naphtha 650 359 0,9% -0,2 -2,4 Jet Fuel 612 322 13,0% 4,4 -2,1 Diesel 600 35
Slide 27: Q3 Product Yields
Q3 Product Yields Q3 2020 Q3 2021 LPG Other Other3% Bitumen 2% LPG Bitumen 3% 1% 11% 15% Kok Gasoline Gasoline Kok Other 3% Other 21% 21% 3% white white Fuel Oil Light Fuel Oil Black Prod. 2% Light Black Prod. 1% 0% Distil. 5% Distil. 18% 19% 25% 25% Naphtha Naphtha 1% 1% Mid. Distil. Jet Mid. Disti
Slide 28: Tüpraş Balance Sheet (Million TL)
Tüpraş Balance Sheet (Million TL) 30.09.2021 31.12.2020 Diff. Diff. (%) Current Assets 49,497 30,663 18,834 61 Cash & C. Equivalents 20,797 19,825 972 5 Trade Receivables 7,941 1,736 6,205 358 Derivatives 736 380 356 94 Inventories 16,260 7,701 8,559 111 Pre-paid expenses 272 234 38 16 Other Current
Slide 29: Tüpraş and Med Margins ($/bbl)
Tüpraş and Med Margins ($/bbl) Average Margins Tüpraş Net Margin Med Margin 10 9,3 8 6 4,6 4,3 3,7 4 1,7 1,3 1,5 2 1,0 0 -0,2 -0,2 -2 2018 2019 2020 9M 2020 9M 2021 Gross Inventory Clean Gross Clean NET Net ($/bbl) Med Margin Margin Effect Margin Margin Margin Q3 2021 10.4 0.5 9.8 5.4 5.9 2.8 9M 202
Slide 30: Finished Product and Semi Product Imports (Thousand Tons)
Finished Product and Semi Product Imports (Thousand Tons) Product Imports Q3 2021 Q3 2020 500 299 292 252 120 63 66 60 60 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 Diesel Jet Fuel HVGO ASR F. Oil LSFO Naphtha Alkylate MTBE 17/02/2022 Hizmete Özel / Confidential Earnings Presentation www.tupras.com.tr 30
Slide 31: www.tupras.com.tr
www.tupras.com.tr 17/02/2022 Hizmete Özel / Confidential www.tupras.com.tr 31 Earnings Presentation