Slide 1: Natural catastrophes in 2025: the persistent rise of wildfire and storm risk
Media Dialogue 2026 Natural catastrophes in 2025: the persistent rise of wildfire and storm risk
Slide 2: Lessons learned from 2025
Lessons learned from 2025 Dr. Jérôme Haegeli Group Chief Economist and Head Swiss Re Institute 1
Slide 3: Losses driven by fires and storms in benign 2025 – loss growth trend persists
Losses driven by fires and storms in benign 2025 – loss growth trend persists 107 5–7% 49% 400 USD bn insured nat-cat losses in 2025 long-term annual real growth trend of losses covered by insurance in 2025 USD bn by 2030 in peak loss scenario below trend still intact despite benign 2025 USD 220 bn
Slide 4: Secondary perils dominating insured losses again in 2025 with trend likely to remain
Secondary perils dominating insured losses again in 2025 with trend likely to remain Global insured losses from natural catastrophes by peril in 2025 and previous year averages, % • Secondary perils drove 92% of 2025 global insured losses 1995-2004 11% 26% 2% 8% 9% 39% 5% • Wildfire loss record: Los
Slide 5: Protection gaps: decreased, but more is needed with insurance and adaptation combined strengthening resilience
Protection gaps: decreased, but more is needed with insurance and adaptation combined strengthening resilience Insured share of global natural catastrophe losses • Insurance coverage is rising; 49% of USD 220bn 50% global economic losses in 2025 and ~40% on average over the past decade (vs 23%, 30 y
Slide 6: Higher economic inflation: increased loss sensitivity risks enhance benefits of adaptation
Higher economic inflation: increased loss sensitivity risks enhance benefits of adaptation • Global growth is structurally lower than in the pre-pandemic period, while rising exposure and event-driven economic inflation surges increase the likelihood of stagflation and greater macro volatility amid
Slide 7: What drives losses from secondary perils?
What drives losses from secondary perils? Dr. Balz Grollimund Head Catastrophe Perils 1
Slide 8: Secondary perils: fastest growing source of insured losses in the past 55 years
Secondary perils: fastest growing source of insured losses in the past 55 years Long-term insured loss trend confirmed: 5–7% annual growth rate Wildfires wildfire fastest-growing peril (~12% p.a.), followed by SCS (~7%) and floods (~6%) Three perils Pronounced regional and peril differences: account
Slide 9: Global insured losses: 80% of loss growth in the past 55 years explained by exposure growth
Global insured losses: 80% of loss growth in the past 55 years explained by exposure growth • Exposure, vulnerability and hazard, together with insurance penetration, shape insured loss trends globally • Most annual weather-related loss growth since 1970 attributable to increased exposure and higher
Slide 10: Wildfire losses: exposure alone does not explain fast growth
Wildfire losses: exposure alone does not explain fast growth • Wildfire insured losses have grown by more than 14% per year in North America, with 98% of those losses occurring in the US • Exposure explains only about one third of growth; ~ 60% remains residual, pointing to changes in underlying ris
Slide 11: Flood losses: large protection gaps in Asia versus efficient adaptation in Europe
Flood losses: large protection gaps in Asia versus efficient adaptation in Europe • Floods contributed less to global insured loss growth due to low insurance penetration across many rapidly developing regions • Asia contributes the largest growth in historical economic flood losses; flood protectio
Slide 12: Risk reduction: investment in adaptation and in modelling of secondary perils
Risk reduction: investment in adaptation and in modelling of secondary perils Narrowing protection gaps Effective risk reduction and adaptation are 80–90% prerequisites for expanding insurance coverage. of natural catastrophe Together these measures are key to narrowing losses are uninsured in prote
Slide 13: Any questions?
Any questions?
Slide 14: Thank you!
Thank you! Contact us Follow us Dr. Jérôme Haegeli Dr. Balz Grollimund Group Chief Economist and Head Catastrophe Perils Head Swiss Re Institute balz_grollimund@swissre.com jerome_haegeli@swissre.com
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Slide 16: Legal notice
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