Mosaic Company (the) · NYSE:MOS
Mosaic Company (the) — The Mosaic Company — Q3 2023 Earnings Presentation
22 slides from Mosaic Company (the)'s earnings presentation, Nov 8, 2023
Slide 1: Third Quarter 2023 Results
The Mosaic Company Third Quarter 2023 Results November 7, 2023 Date:
Slide 2: Forward Looking Statements & Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Forward Looking Statements & Non-GAAP Financial Measures This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements may include, but are not limited to, statements about proposed or pending future transactions or
Slide 3: Third Quarter 2023 Performance
Third Quarter 2023 Performance CONSOLIDATED OPERATING NET ADJUSTED (1) REVENUES EARNINGS EARNINGS (LOSS) EBITDA $3,548M $146M $(4)M $594M PHOSPHATE POTASH MOSAIC FERTILIZANTES Net Operating Adjusted(1) Net Operating Adjusted(1) Net Operating Adjusted(1) Revenues Earnings(Loss) EBITDA Revenues Earnin
Slide 4: Agricultural Productivity
Agricultural Productivity Agricultural productivity must accelerate significantly to keep up with global food demand. Agricultural productivity needs to accelerate significantly to catch with the pace of global food demand. Total factor productivity (TFP) measures amount of agricultural output produ
Slide 5: Solid Agricultural Fundamentals
Solid Agricultural Fundamentals Demand for global grain and oilseeds will likely outpace production and keep stocks-to-use ratios low. Mil Tonnes World less China Grain and Oilseed Stocks Percent Stocks Percent of Use 500 20% 450 19% 400 18% 350 17% 300 16% 250 15% 200 14% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Slide 6: A Favorable Secular Biofuels Trend
A Favorable Secular Biofuels Trend Biofuels are becoming a significant source of demand for soybeans. Bil Bu U.S. Soybean Use 5.0 30% 4.5 25% 4.0 3.5 20% 3.0 2.5 15% 2.0 10% 1.5 1.0 5% 0.5 0.0 0% 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/20 21/22 23/24 Total use Soybean-equivalent for biofuels To
Slide 7: Under-application of Phosphates and Potash Has Hurt Yields
Under-application of Phosphates and Potash Has Hurt Yields Nitrogen Consumption vs Yield Impact Phosphate Consumption vs Yield Potash Consumption vs Yield Impact Impact 0.05 0.05 0.05 Latin Am Latin Am (excl. Brazil) (excl. Brazil) Latin Am (excl. Brazil) 23 Yield vs. Trend (MT/Ha) 23 Yield vs. Tren
Slide 8: Mosaic Fertilizantes Inventories
Mosaic Fertilizantes Inventories Mosaic completed its destocking of high-cost fertilizer in Brazil. Inventories today are at or below the low end of the historical range. Mil Tonnes Mosaic Fertilizantes MOP Ending Stocks Shaded area = 2-year ranges 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Slide 9: Phosphate and Potash Prices
Phosphate and Potash Prices With sales volume moving higher, phosphate prices strengthened, and potash prices have stabilized. $/MT Global DAP/MAP Benchmark Prices $/MT Potash Prices Published Spot Prices Published Spot Prices 1,400 1,400 c&f Brazil c&f SE Asia fob NOLA delivered Cornbelt 1,200 1,20
Slide 10: Global Phosphate and Potash Demand
Global Phosphate and Potash Demand Demand recovery will likely extend into 2024. Mil Tonnes Global Phosphate Shipments Mil Tonnes Global MOP Shipments DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP 80 80 73-76 75 75 68-72 70 70 65 65 60 60 55 55 50 50 45 45 40 40 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23F 24F 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Slide 11: Highlights
Highlights • Robust demand across all key markets • Florida operations restarted withing three days of Hurricane Idalia; Phosphates Louisiana repairs expected to be completed in the fourth quarter • Expect 4Q realized stripping margin sequentially higher than 3Q • Solid sales volume driven by a robu
Slide 12: Capital Allocation Strategy
Capital Allocation Strategy Our capital allocation strategy remains unchanged. Maintain Strong Balance Return Capital to Invest in the Business Sheet Shareholders High-returning, focused Current balance sheet reflects Continue returning virtually all investments with modest capital investment grade
Slide 13: Strategy & Initiatives
Strategy & Initiatives Value-Add Products Expansion Brazil Footprint Expansion • Grow value-added products and target 50% of N.A. phosphates sales volume • Expand our presence in the largest and from MicroEssentials with the expansion growing northern agricultural region in of our Riverview capacity
Slide 14: Outlook for 2023
Outlook for 2023 Pricing & Sensitivities FY 2022 Sensitivity Average DAP fob plant ($/tonne)(1) $804 $10 price = $90 mm adjusted EBITDA Average MOP fob mine ($/tonne)(2) $632 $10 price = $60 mm adjusted EBITDA BRL/USD(3) 5.16 Unhedged: $0.10 = $10 mm adjusted EBITDA (1) Approximately 20% of DAP pric
Slide 15: Appendix
Appendix
Slide 16: Potash Y/Y Adjusted EBITDA Bridge
Potash Y/Y Adjusted EBITDA(1) Bridge $(604) $871 $(830) $ in millions $51 $23 $267 $175 $(23) Q3 2022 Sales Price CRT Sales Idle/TA Other Q3 2023 Adjusted Volume Adjusted EBITDA EBITDA (1)See Non-GAAP Financial Measures for additional information 16
Slide 17: Phosphate Y/Y Adjusted EBITDA Bridge
Phosphate Y/Y Adjusted EBITDA(1) Bridge $(280) $50 $(550) $280 $481 $ in millions $(35) $(5) $(0) $(20) $201 Q3 2022 Raw TA/Idle Sales Conversion Rock Sales Other Q3 2023 Adjusted Materials Price Volume Adjusted EBITDA EBITDA (1)See Non-GAAP Financial Measures for additional information 17
Slide 18: Mosaic Fertilizantes Y/Y Adjusted EBITDA Bridge
Mosaic Fertilizantes Y/Y Adjusted EBITDA(1) Bridge $(196) $343 $(295) $ in millions $30 $147 $54 $15 Q3 2022 Market Sales Idle/TA Other Q3 2023 Adjusted Volume Adjusted EBITDA EBITDA (1)See Non-GAAP Financial Measures for additional information 18
Slide 19: Reconciliation of non GAAP measures
Reconciliation of non GAAP measures Consolidated Earnings (in millions) Q3 2023 Q3 2022 Consolidated net earnings (loss) attributable to Mosaic $(4) $842 Less: Consolidated interest expense, net (17) (31) Plus: Consolidated depreciation, depletion and amortization 239 229 Plus: Accretion expense 23
Slide 20: Reconciliation of non GAAP measures
Reconciliation of non GAAP measures Potash Earnings (in millions) Q3 2023 Q3 2022 Operating earnings $200 $793 Plus: Depreciation, depletion and amortization 66 76 Plus: Accretion expense 2 2 Plus: Foreign exchange gain (loss) (26) (19) Plus: Other income (expense) (43) - Plus: Notable items 68 19 A
Slide 21: Reconciliation of non GAAP measures
Reconciliation of non GAAP measures Phosphate Earnings (in millions) Q3 2023 Q3 2022 Operating earnings (loss) $(58) $131 Plus: Depreciation, depletion and amortization 117 121 Plus: Accretion expense 16 13 Plus: Foreign exchange gain (loss) 4 3 Plus: Other income (expense) (6) 1 Less: Earnings (los
Slide 22: Reconciliation of non GAAP measures
Reconciliation of non GAAP measures Mosaic Fertilizantes Earnings (in millions) Q3 2023 Q3 2022 Operating earnings $77 $323 Plus: Depreciation, depletion and amortization 54 28 Plus: Accretion expense 5 4 Plus: Foreign exchange gain (loss) (48) (66) Plus: Other income (expense) (1) (1) Less: Earning