ASML Holding NV · EURONEXT:ASML
ASML Holding NV — UBS Global Technology and Services Conference 2009
26 slides from ASML Holding NV's conference presentation, Jun 9, 2009
Slide 1: UBS Global Technology and Services Conference
UBS Global Technology and Services Conference New York City Craig DeYoung VP, Investor Relations & Corporate Communications June 9, 2009 / Slide 1
Slide 2: Safe Harbor
Safe Harbor "Safe Harbor" Statement under the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: the matters discussed in this document may include forward-looking statements, including statements made about our outlook, realization of backlog, IC unit demand, financial results, average sales pric
Slide 3: The Markets
The Markets DRAM z 300mm litho capacity utilization recovering while 200mm capacity is being built off z DRAM 1Gb prices continue to rise z DRAM manufacturers with 55nm process are making money z DRAM manufacturer without 55nm process resume process “shrink” plans z Some DRAM players preparing 45nm
Slide 4: DRAM Sales: revenues appear to bottom out in March
DRAM revenues appear to bottom out in March YoY DRAM unit growth still well below average of analysts DRAM revenue and unit sales history YoY Seasonal adjusted DRAM revenue YoY Seasonal adjusted DRAM units DRAM unit sales compared with year before Revenue DRAM Seasonal Adjusted Units DRAM Seasonal A
Slide 5: DRAM utilization recovering while 200mm capacity is built off
DRAM 300 mm utilization recovering while 200mm capacity is built off DRAM Utilization Performance 100 STEPPER units SCANNERS units TWINSCAN units 1500 STEPPERS SCANNERS TWINSCAN 1400 ASML Tool Utilization [%] 80 1300 60 1200 1100 40 1000 20 900 800 0 May-08 Mar-08 Mar-09 Aug-07 Nov-07 Aug-08 Sep-07
Slide 6: DRAM Gb prices continue to increase during April
DRAM 1 Gb prices continue to increase during April, due to persistent supply cut-backs, 5x nm manufacturers are cash positive MAIN DRAM SPOT & CONTRACT PRICES (01/2008 - 2009YTD) 2.4 512Mb DDR2 667 SPOT PRICE 2.1 512Mb DDR2 667 CONTRACT PRICE 1Gb DDR2 667 SPOT PRICE 1.8 1Gb DDR2 667 CONTRACT PRICE 3
Slide 7: Q1/09 DRAM operating margins
Q1/09 DRAM operating margins: Production cut-backs resulted in negative op. margins for all players, despite rising ASPs Operating Margins of main DRAM Manufacturers (Q1/06 - Q1/09) 60% 40% 20% Most Operating Margin [% of Sales] advanced 0% prod. node Q106 Q206 Q306 Q406 Q107 Q207 Q307 Q407 Q108 Q20
Slide 8: NAND sales rising with normal seasonal behavior
3mma NAND sales is rising as normal seasonal behavior 1Q09 units growth lower than annual forecast NAND revenue and unit sales history NAND unit sales compared with year before YoY Seasonal adjusted NAND revenue YoY Seasonal adjusted NAND units Revenue NAND Seasonal Adjusted 2008 Cumm 2009 Cumm Grow
Slide 9: NAND utilization, moving back to normal levels
NAND utilization, moving back to normal levels NAND Utilization Performance 100 I-Line units KrF units ArF units ArFi units 500 I-Line KrF ArF ArFi ASML tool utilization [%] 80 450 60 400 40 350 20 300 0 250 May-08 May-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 Mar-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 Mar-09 Dec-07 D
Slide 10: NAND MLC Gb ASPs stabilized above cash-costs
NAND MLC 16 Gb mainstream ASPs stabilized above 4x and 5x nm cash-costs MAIN NAND SPOT & CONTRACT PRICES (01/2008 - 2009YTD) 18 17 16 15 14 13 16Gb NAND SLC SPOT PRICE 12 Chip ASP [$US] 16Gb NAND SLC CONTRACT PRICE 11 10 16Gb NAND MLC SPOT PRICE 9 16Gb NAND MLC CONTRACT PRICE 8 7 300 mm cash-costs f
Slide 11: Q1/09 NAND operating margins
Q1/09 NAND operating margins: Margins driven by raising ASPs. Operating Margins of main NAND Manufacturers (Q1/06 - Q1/09) 60% 40% Operating Margin [% of Sales] 20% Most advanced 0% volume node 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 in Q1/09: -20% 4x nm SE -40% 4x nm SE 3x
Slide 12: Logic sales appear to have reached a bottom in March 2009
Logic sales appear to have reached a bottom in March 2009 LOGIC revenue and unit sales history Logic unit sales compared with year before YoY Seasonal adjusted Logic revenue YoY Seasonal adjusted Logic units 2008 Cumm 2009 Cumm Revenue Logic Seasonal Adjusted Growth YTD YoY-3mma Units Logic Seasonal
Slide 13: Foundry utilizations recovering fast
Foundry utilizations are recovering fast – but well below trigger point for capacity buys Foundry Top-4 Utilization Performance 100 STEPPER units SCANNER units TWINSCAN units 2000 STEPPERS SCANNERS TWINSCAN ASML tool utilization [%] 80 1800 60 1600 40 1400 20 1200 0 1000 Measured ASML systems [units
Slide 14: Market Opportunity
Market Opportunity / Slide 14
Slide 15: Technology developments continue
Technology developments continue Drivers of lower device cost and greater device functionality Logic / SRAM 200 Resolution/half pitch, "Shrink" [nm] 100 80 Logic 60 6 Transistor SRAM Cell DRAM NAND Flash k1 0.40 ~ 0.44 50 40 30 DRAM 20 NAND k1 0.30 ~ 0.35 k1 0.27 ~ 0.30 1/1/04 1/1/05 1/1/08 1/1/09 1
Slide 16: Lithography total market growth opportunity - simulation
Lithography total market growth opportunity - simulation Historical trends projected WW Litho Demand Simulation (2006 - 2015) : Factual until 2008 + • Semiconductor IC trend-based simulation simulation for 2009 unit growth 11000 Lithography System Revenue [Mio. €] 10000 continues at 9% per year 9000
Slide 17: Bottom-up scenario: Four engines of growth
Bottom-up scenario: Four engines of growth Even when assuming slow chip unit growth of 4% (due to Moore’s Law slowdown and slower electronics consumption in the West) More DRAM NAND/DRAM penetration rises to 10% of in expanding hard disk drives storage capacity, versus 7% consumer in slow-down scena
Slide 18: Bottoms-up scenario: significant litho demand indicated
Bottoms-up scenario: significant litho demand indicated Conservative scenario (4% unit growth) + emerging growth markets Worldwide litho demand simulation Factual until 2008 + NAND in servers IC trend-based simulation simulation for 2009 (PCRAM) 11000 Lithography System Revenue [Mio. €] 10000 More D
Slide 19: ASML confirms its strategy
ASML confirms its strategy z The lithography market offers significant growth potential; the company target of EUR 5 billion in annual revenues is still achievable, timing depending on macro economic circumstances z ASML’s key success factor is unmatched R&D innovation which will remain unaffected i
Slide 20: ASML Product Strategy
ASML Product Strategy Enabling the future / Slide 20
Slide 21: Committed to R&D
Committed to R&D New product introduction on track z ASML is using its financial strength to uniquely continue aggressive R&D spending in strategic development programs to ensure timely introduction of next node production solutions z Proved EUV imaging with the first full field 28 nm dense lines z
Slide 22: TWINSCAN NXT - improved overlay and productivity
TWINSCAN NXT - improved overlay and productivity Suitable for double patterning 32 nm and beyond • Platform capability >200 wafers per hour • Excellent overlay shown • during SPIE x, y : 1.9nm, 1.8nm x, y : 1.6nm, 1.7nm overlay overlay 99.7% 99.7% x: 1.9 nm x: 1.6 nm 5 nm y: 1.8 nm 5 nm y: 1.7 nm /
Slide 23: EUV pre-production systems ready in 2010
EUV pre-production systems ready in 2010 First full field 28 nm dense lines imaged Sub-40nm dense line resolution 22.5x15mm2 field size 28nm 1:1 LS 35 Wafer CDU H V 3σ (nm) 40 1.5 1.4 32 1.5 1.6 30 2.1 1.8 28 2.8 2.2 30 32nm Avg. 31.6nm 25 28nm 3σ=2.2nm Resist: Shin-Etsu SEVR-40 Good wafer CD unifor
Slide 24: Summary
Summary //} | a a | / / A a Ps ee Pd ge e . ee Oe of of fy f / y Jf Ff J fr if y y y J / / / f fo / / / Slide 24
Slide 25: Summary
Summary z Litho system utilization at leading edge improving across all sectors z Shrink drivers remain in all sectors (Device cost and functionality improvements) z Technology purchases resume to support litho process node transitions in all sectors z ASML continues to manage the company for cash g
Slide 26: / Slide 26
/ Slide 26
ASML — UBS Global Technology and Services Conference 2009 on 6ix