Slide 1: Results and Outlook
Results and Outlook February 2019
Slide 2: Consistently delivering
Consistently delivering Delivering on objectives • Outstanding production growth • Capex and Opex discipline • Best-in-class Profitability Strong cash flow growth underpins shareholder returns Integrating along the oil, gas and low carbon electricity value chains to capture upside Attractive portfol
Slide 3: Safety, Total's core value
Safety, Total’s core value Cornerstone of operational efficiency Total Recordable Injury Rate for Total and peers* Saft (battery business) TRIR** Per million man-hours Per million man-hours 2 10 1 5 0.9 2013 2018 2016 2017 2018 4 fatalities in 2018 Successfully implementing Total safety culture * Gr
Slide 4: Oil market volatility
Oil market volatility Supply-demand and OECD inventories Mb/d, days of demand cover +1.3 Mb/d demand 100 in 2018* Increasing demand but sensitive to price and emerging market growth Supply Demand Growing supply: opposing trends • OPEC & Russia announced 1.2 Mb/d production cuts Nov. 2018: • Debottle
Slide 5: Strong LNG demand growth driven by Asia
Strong LNG demand growth driven by Asia Supportive government policies for natural gas 2015-30 LNG demand 2015-30 LNG supply Mt/y Mt/y 5% CAGR 500 Other 500 Needs to be Middle East sanctioned 9% CAGR Europe Demand Under construction Rest of Asia 250 250 China Existing supply Japan Korea Taiwan 2015
Slide 6: 2018 results: consistently delivering
2018 results: consistently delivering
Slide 7: Consistently delivering strong results
Consistently delivering strong results Best-in-class profitability with ROACE and ROE at 12% Adjusted net income Return on average capital employed (ROACE) B$ % 15% +28% 13.6 B$ Marketing & Services 10.6 B$ Refining & Chemicals 8.3 B$ 10% Integrated Gas, Renewables & Power* Exploration & Production*
Slide 8: Growing cash flow generation
Growing cash flow generation Increasing contribution from high margin new projects 2018 cash flow allocation Organic free cash flow B$ B$ 10 > 15 B$ CFFO 24.7 15.6 Capital investment 5 1.5 Buyback 2015 2016 7.7 2017 2018 Dividend Sources Uses -5 Brent ($/b) 52 44 54 71 Organic pre-dividend breakeven
Slide 9: Exploration delivery underway
Exploration delivery underway Budget ~ 1.2 B$ in 2019 Discoveries in core area Opening a world-class play Novatek in Russia #2 operator in the North Sea in South Africa (Total, shareholder with 19.4%) 11B-12B Block NAMIBIA Glendronach (Total 60% Op) Alwyn Sheltand Gas Plant North-Obskoye Johan Sverd
Slide 10: M&A highgrading portfolio and renewing reserves
M&A highgrading portfolio and renewing reserves Strong 2018 proved reserve replacement of 157% 2018 E&P M&A and License extensions Proved and probable reserves B$ Bboe Maersk Oil (shares & debt) +1.4 10 Bboe 20 5 Main assets: Main assets: • Adnoc offshore • Martin Linge • Iara • Fort Hills • Lapa •
Slide 11: Downstream: best-in-class >25% ROACE
Downstream: best-in-class >25% ROACE Diversified portfolio generating stable cash flow Downstream CFFO 2018 Downstream CFFO B$ % ~6.5 B$ Refining Chemicals 7 2016 2017 2018 Marketing & Services ERMI ($/t) 34 41 32 Maintaining strong CFFO Non-cyclical M&S while selling 8 B$ assets over 2015-18 Expand
Slide 12: Strong balance sheet
Strong balance sheet Delivering on objective to maintain gearing < 20% Net-debt-to-capital IFRS 16 impact in 2019 % 22% 21% Gearing ~+3% 15.5% 12% Capital employed +5 to 6 B$ DACF ~+1 B$ Adjusted net income ~0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2.1 B$ non-recurring items in 2018 2018 Results and Outlook 12
Slide 13: Delivering on objectives
Delivering on objectives 2018 objectives Target Realized Capital investment ~ 16 B$ 15.6 B$ Cost reduction > 4 B$ 4.2 B$ 5.5 5.7 Upstream Opex $/boe $/boe Production growth 6% 8% Downstream CFFO ~ 7 B$ 6.5 B$ Dividend increase 3.2% 3.2% 5 B$ 1.5 B$ Share buyback 2018-20 2018 2018 Results and Outlook
Slide 14: Outperforming peers in 2018
Outperforming peers in 2018 Production growth Downstream ROACE % % 30% 5% Group ROACE Net-debt-to-capital % -4% % 15% 20% 5% Peers: BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell – based on public data 2018 Results and Outlook 14
Slide 15: Discipline and cash flow growth
Discipline and cash flow growth
Slide 16: Delivering outstanding production growth
Delivering outstanding production growth Best-in-class 5% CAGR for 2017-22 Production* growth Mboe/d > +9% 8 major start-ups in 2018-19 3 • Egina, Kaombo North, Ichthys +8% and Yamal LNG ramp-ups • Iara 1, Kaombo South, Culzean and Johan Sverdrup start-ups 2.5 > 40% increase in LNG production Short
Slide 17: Capital investment discipline
Capital investment discipline Capital investment* 2019 capital investment B$ % Downstream 15.6 15-16 15-17 iGRP: Exploration Integrated & Production Gas Renewables & Power 2018 2019 2020 Guidance Feb 2018 ~16 15-17 15-17 1-2 B$ net acquisitions * Organic Capex + net acquisitions iGRP: integrated LNG
Slide 18: Maintaining discipline on Opex
Maintaining discipline on Opex Competitive advantage on cost Opex savings vs. 2014 base Production costs (ASC 932) B$ $/boe > 5 B$ 4.7 B$ 4.2 B$ 15 Downstream & Corporate 9.9 10 Upstream 7.4 5.9 5.4 5.7 5 2018 2019 2020 2014 2018 Continuing to cut costs Targeting 5.5 $/boe in 2019 2018 Results and O
Slide 19: Clear visibility on cash flow growth
Clear visibility on cash flow growth Debt adjusted cash flow (DACF)* B$ Strong contribution from 2018 project start-ups 30 70 $/b • 3 B$ in 2019** from Kaombo, Ichthys, Egina 26.1 60 $/b 71 $/b 22.2 Solid cash generation from acquisitions 50 $/b 54 $/b • 2.5 B$ in 2019** from Maersk Oil, Brazil and
Slide 20: Clear priorities for cash flow allocation 2018-20
Clear priorities for cash flow allocation 2018-20 1 2 3 4 Capital Balance Share Dividend investment sheet buyback Maintain 15-17 B$ per year 10% increase gearing < 20% 5 B$ over 2018-20 over 2018-20 grade A credit rating 2019 vs. 2017: +6.5% 2018: 1.5 B$ Ending scrip dividend 2019: 1.5 B$ at 60 $/b
Slide 21: Preparing for future growth
Preparing for future growth
Slide 22: Integrating climate into strategy
Integrating climate into strategy Taking into account anticipated market trends Global energy demand Mboe/d Focusing on IEA 2°C oil projects scenario* with low breakeven 300 Renewables Nuclear Expanding along the Coal gas value chain Oil Natural gas Developing profitable & 2017 2040 sizeable low car
Slide 23: Oil & Gas: Building on our strengths
Oil & Gas: Building on our strengths Leveraging expertise in 7 core areas 1 Deepwater 2 LNG 3 Petrochemicals 4 Retail & Lubricants Africa 5 Market leader Middle East & North Africa 6 Partner of choice North Sea 7 #2 operator 2018 Results and Outlook 23
Slide 24: Countercyclical M&A creating value
Countercyclical M&A creating value Acquisitions and divestments 2015-18 B$ E&P 2015-18 acquisitions Maersk Oil 20 (shares & debt) • 7 Bboe of resources added at < 2.5 $/boe • > 4 B$/y CFFO at 60 $/b from 2019 on average • ROACE at 60 $/b ~10% Engie LNG • ~10 Mt/y of LNG contracts • Cameron LNG T1-3
Slide 25: Sanctioning high return projects for future growth
Sanctioning high return projects for future growth Launching > 700 kboe/d by 2020 Prod. growth Troll, Ekofisk Arctic LNG 2 2020-25 360 kboe/d, ~21% average 600 kboe/d, 22%* > 2%/y Energia Costa Azul 2.5 Mt/y, 17% Glendronach Johan Sverdrup 2 25 kboe/d, 60%, Op. 220 kb/d, 8% Cameron LNG T4/T5 9 Mt/y,
Slide 26: Delivering profitable short cycle developments
Delivering profitable short cycle developments Launching 400 Mboe by end-2019 Short cycle reserve split Short cycle projects launched in 2018 Bboe Average IRR Capex Sanctioned in 2018-19 > 20% < 7 $/boe at 50 $/b > 1 Bboe reserves 2020+ sanctions Dalia 3 and Clov 2 (Angola), Elgin Franklin (UK), TFT
Slide 27: Fully integrated along the oil value chain
Fully integrated along the oil value chain Investing through the cycle and resilient in a volatile market 1.6 Mb/d 1.9 Mb/d 1.8 Mb/d Production Refining Marketing & Services Note: 2018 data 2018 Results and Outlook 27
Slide 28: Expanding high return petrochemicals
Expanding high return petrochemicals Leveraging world class integrated platforms Petrochemical projects US: Total Borealis Nova JV South Korea: Hanwha Total JV New ethane cracker Propane cracker expansion PE capacity increase PE & PP capacity increase Start up 2021 Start up 2019-20 Investing in grow
Slide 29: Marketing & Services targeting large growing markets
Marketing & Services targeting large growing markets Expanding worldwide network of 14,000 service stations Marketing & Services CFFO 2018 M&A and partnerships B$ Mexico India Alliance with local partners JV with Adani +100 M$ per year ~400 stations by 2022 Targeting 1,500 stations over 10 years 3 B
Slide 30: iGRP: investing for growth
iGRP: investing for growth Capturing the value of integrated gas and low carbon electricity Capital Investments CFFO B$* B$ 4 4 70 $/b 60 $/b 2 2 71 $/b 2018 2019-20 2018 2019 2020 Accelerating integrated LNG growth CFFO growing ~2x by 2020 * At 60$/b 2018 Results and Outlook 30
Slide 31: Growing world-class LNG portfolio
Growing world-class LNG portfolio Priority to low cost, brownfield projects Integrated LNG CFFO B$* New LNG projects in key supply regions 3 Pre-FID projects Equity Project capa. Arctic LNG 2 Russia 22%** 20 Mt/y Energia Costa Azul Ph1 Mexico 10-17% 2.5 Mt/y Nigeria LNG extension Nigeria 15% 7.5 Mt/
Slide 32: Building a profitable low carbon electricity business
Building a profitable low carbon electricity business Integrated approach: production, trading and marketing Renewables project value creation Nominal IRR % Gas to electricity Renewables to electricity Europe Worldwide >15% ~3 GW* by 2020 ~7 GW by 2022 20% Supply & Trading 5-7% 10% Marketing 4 M cus
Slide 33: Strategy contributing to tackle climate change
Strategy contributing to tackle climate change Reducing the carbon intensity of our energy sales Carbon intensity Base 100 in 2015 (75 gCO2/kbtu) Further improving efficiency of our operations 100 IEA NPS Growing in natural gas Ambition -15% 2015-30 Developing a profitable low carbon electricity bus
Slide 34: Total, the Responsible Energy Major
Total, the Responsible Energy Major Balancing added value distribution among stakeholders 2010-18 added value, ~50 B$/y B$ Net Salaries ~100,000 employees investments & benefits Working in > 130 countries worldwide 450,000 institutional and individual investors Taxes Supporting network of ~100,000 s
Slide 35: Consistently delivering
Consistently delivering Delivering on objectives • Outstanding production growth • Capex and Opex discipline • Best-in-class Profitability Strong cash flow growth underpins shareholder returns • Increasing dividend by 3.1% in 2019 • Ending scrip option from 2019 AGM • 1.5 B$ buyback at 60 $/b in 201
Slide 36: Appendix
Appendix
Slide 37: 2018-20 major start-ups
2018-20 major start-ups Delivering ~600 kboe/d by 2020 kboe/d Share Country Yamal LNG T1 150 29.7% Russia Fort Hills 180 24,5% Canada Vaca Muerta 100 41% Op. Argentina 2018 Timimoun 30 38% Algeria Yamal LNG T2 150 29.7% Russia Kaombo North 115 30% Op. Angola Ichthys LNG 340 30% Australia Halfaya 3 2
Slide 38: Well positioned for new IMO regulation
Well positioned for new IMO regulation Positive for E&P and R&C, a new opportunity for M&S Crude Oil Products value Alternative fuel Low sulfur crude value increasing HSFO decreasing, distillates increasing Development of LNG for bunkering Mt/y 7 Antwerp modernization Port Arthur coker Total: 60% Lo
Slide 39: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This document may contain forward-looking information on the Group (including objectives and trends), as well (ii) Inventory valuation effect as forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, notably The adjusted results of the Refin