Elia Group SA/NV · EURONEXT:ELI
Elia Group SA/NV — Investor Presentation (March 2024)
124 slides from Elia Group SA/NV's investor presentation, Mar 27, 2024
Slide 1: WG Balancing of March 27th 2024
WG Balancing of March 27th 2024 Hybrid meeting 27/03/2024
Slide 2: For a smooth teleconference with 30+ people
For a smooth teleconference with 30+ people … Some rules apply - Please put yourself on mute at any time that you are not speaking to avoid background noise. - If you receive a call, please ensure that you do not put this meeting on hold. - You can quit and reconnect later on. - You will be muted or
Slide 3: Agenda
Agenda 09:00 – 09:30: Overview of the 2023 balancing volumes & costs 09:30 – 10:00: EU & BE Balancing program update 10:00 – 10:45: Flexibility Roadmap (Energy & Grid) 10:45 – 11:15: DFD Report and milestones 2024 11:15 – 11:45: Smart Testing 11:45 – 12:00: Reserve dimensioning 12:00 – 12:45: Incomp
Slide 4: Minutes of Meeting for approval
Minutes of Meeting for approval Minutes of Meeting of WG Balancing of 07/02/2024 Comments • Suggestion to approve: • The MoM of 07/02/2024 4
Slide 5: Customers, Markets & System
ia | Ela Group Customers, Markets & System James Matthys-Donnadieu Chief Officer Market Market: Grids & Transformation, Digital & Energy Solutions Offshore Concepts Grid Development National Control Center Data, implementation Presentation title | 5
Slide 6: Overview of the 2023 balancing volumes & costs
Overview of the 2023 balancing volumes & costs Patrick Buijs
Slide 7: General market evolution
General market evolution
Slide 8: General market evolution: 2023 returns to pre-crisis level for electricity and gas prices
General market evolution: 2023 returns to pre-crisis (=2021) level for electricity and gas prices DAM (€/MWh) GAS-ZTP (€/MWh) CO2 (€/ton) 2020 31,9 10,76 24,77 2021 104,1 51,74 53,01 2022 244,5 114,33 80,87 2023 97,27 44,93 83,38 ‒ 2023 has continued the downward trend on electricity prices (observe
Slide 9: Belgian average DAM price was rather close to its direct neighbours
General market evolution Belgian average DAM price was rather close to its direct neighbours 316 301 222 147 111 86 ‒ Electricity market prices were characterized in 2023 by “Back-to-pre-crisis level” on the wholesale electricity market Yearly average AT BE DE FR GB NL DAM (€/MWh) ‒ Clean Spark Spre
Slide 10: FCR – aFRR - mFRR
FCR – aFRR - mFRR
Slide 11: Wrap-up of capacity costs in 2023
Wrap-up of capacity costs in 2023: net recovery compared to 2022, especially thanks to lower aFRR capacity costs. Total capacity costs in 2022 & 2023 Costs in M€ FCR aFRR* mFRR 2022 20,1 174,7 78,0 2023 16,4 74,2 70,9 (*) Note: In 2023, the volume to procure for aFRR was 117 MW during the entire yea
Slide 12: FCR capacity auctions
FCR capacity auctions 2022 2023 – Belgian FCR capacity coupled with the cross-border price about half of the year. – Liquidity remained very tight the entire year Year FCR to Core Avg BE Avg XB Total FCR procure Share price price capacity ➢ Resulting in a number of Gate 2 auctions (11) for Belgium t
Slide 13: aFRR capacity cost: Clean Spark Spread still main cost driver
aFRR capacity cost: Clean Spark Spread (CSS) still appears the main cost driver, but it is evolving. TCO degradation capping ‒ The relative share of downwards capacity cost is decreasing ➢ 2022 (173 M€) : 59 % Up / 41 % Down ➢ 2023 (74 M€) : 77 % Up / 23 % Down ‒ CSS remained the main driver of the
Slide 14: In 2023 mFRR capacity costs remained linked to DAM
In 2023 mFRR capacity costs remained linked to DAM, insofar there is high liquidity Reduced liquidity Gate2 Reduced liquidity ‒ DAM prices remained a main driver of mFRR capacity prices, but increasing number of outliers smoothens the relationship. Outliers are 2022 - 2023 mostly linked to periods w
Slide 15: System Imbalance mainly short and imbalance prices followed DAM
System Imbalance (SI) mainly short and imbalance prices followed the DAM evolution. ‒ System imbalance (SI) was on average negative throughout the year, i.e. -29,4 MW in 2023 compared to -26,3 MW in 2022. Zoom on 2023 ‒ Imbalance price followed the average (DAM) electricity price trend. Volatility w
Slide 16: Transfer of Energy
Transfer of Energy Statistics 2023
Slide 17: ToE statistics – mFRR DPPG
ToE statistics – mFRR DPPG Situation December 2023: ToE Opt-Out Pass Through Total 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 ➢ Number of BSPs with mFRR DPPG: 5 # Delivery Points 25 28 223 297 0 0 248 325 Sum DP mFRR,Max,Up (MW) 128 132 1292 1805 0 0 1420 1937 ➢ Number of Suppliers:
Slide 18: Balancing energy
Balancing energy Statistics 2023
Slide 19: Contracted mFRR Standard & Flex Energy Bids
Contracted mFRR Standard & Flex Energy Bids (offered) mFRR Std & Min (€/MWh) Average (€/MWh) Max (€/MWh) Flex 2022 0 1.400 4.670 2023 10 1.103 4.206 ➢ Important decrease of average price for mFRR WG BAL 27/3/2024 19
Slide 20: Non-Contracted mFRR - Energy Bids DPPG
Non-Contracted mFRR - Energy Bids DPPG No energy bids mFRR NC submitted in 2022 from delivery points DPPG. mFRR DPPG NC submitted as from March 2023 20 WG BAL 27/3/2024
Slide 21: Balancing Energy Activated
Balancing Energy Activated Total balancing energy activated or satisfied via IGCC [MWh] 2022 2023 1.383.441 1.383.031 Total balancing energy activated (incl. satisfied volume via IGCC) remains similar to previous year WG BAL 27/3/2024 21
Slide 22: Balancing Energy - automatic activation
Balancing Energy - automatic activation Balancing aFRR + aFRR - IGCC + IGCC - Energy [MWh] 2022 248.308 -216.886 276.154 -240.505 2023 142.896 -184.195 344.908 -322.276 ➢ Lower aFRR activated volume than previous year. ➢ Higher volume satisfied with IGCC WG BAL 27/3/2024 22
Slide 23: Balancing Energy - Manual activation Upwards
Balancing Energy - Manual activation Upwards (mFRR UP) Balancing Energy mFRR NC + mFRR Std in MWh 2022 205.906 61.564 2023 231.497 54.590 ➢ No mFRR flex and InterTSO activated upwards in 2023. WG BAL 27/3/2024 23 NC = non-contracted
Slide 24: Balancing Energy - Manual activation Downwards
Balancing Energy - Manual activation Downwards (mFRR DOWN) Balancing Energy in mFRR NC- InterTSO Export MWh 2022 -133.107 -1.011 2023 -101.427 -1.242 ➢ On average lower volumes activated downwards, especially at the end of 2023 with respect to previous year. WG BAL 27/3/2024 24 NC = non-contracted
Slide 25: FCR Activation Control
FCR Activation Control ‒ Maximum 6 controls and 2 controls per CCTU per month ‒ Failure factor = (FCR Requested - FCR Supplied ) / FCR Requested ‒ Criteria of classification in table below: ➢ If failure factor ≤ 0% → Sufficient ➢ If 0% < failure factor ≤ 30% → Lightly insufficient ➢ If failure facto
Slide 26: aFRR Activation Control
aFRR Activation Control ‒ Continuous control based on telemeasures ‒ Penalized energy equals to the difference between the aFRR Supplied and aFRR Requested taking into account a tolerance of 15% of energy bid volume Penalized energy MWh Total Penalized energy MWh 11.734 2023 aFRR energy activated MW
Slide 27: mFRR Activation Control
mFRR Activation Control – Control based on metering data. – Missing energy equals to the difference between the mFRR Supplied and mFRR Requested. mFRR Total Energy Requested MWh 38.369 Energy Missing MWh 2.977 2023 % Energy Missing / Energy 7,76% Requested Energy Requested MWh 44.546 Energy Missing
Slide 28: Quality
Quality Statistics 2023
Slide 29: Evolution System Imbalance
Evolution System Imbalance (last 5 years) WG BAL 27/3/2024 29
Slide 30: Quality Results
Quality Results Monitoring FRCE Niveau 1 Niveau 2 Ref Niveau 2 Levels 1 & 2 Ref Niveau 1 (MW): 85 (MW): 160 ➢ Limits established in SOGL for FRCE (or ACE) Period # QH Target % Ref 30% Target % Ref 5% # QH > Ref # QH > Ref ➢ Level 1 is similar to prior ACE Std Deviation Period Niveau 1 % Ref Niveau 2
Slide 31: EU & BE Balancing Program Update
EU & BE Balancing Program Update Cécile Pellegrin
Slide 32: Agenda of today's presentation
Agenda of today’s presentation • MARI & iCAROS phase 1 Update of the Roadmap • Local go live of the new mFRR bidding and iCAROS • aFRR Design Evolutions phase 1 Mid May 2024 & Connection to PICASSO • Connection to EU mFRR balancing energy platform June 2024 • Coming stakeholder management • Connecti
Slide 33: MARI & iCAROS phase 1
MARI & iCAROS phase 1 • As indicated in the WG BAL of 18th of December, the new local go live remains conditioned to: • The effective approval of these regulated documents before end of February 2024 • The approval of the Amended T&C BRP • The readiness of the market parties (i.e. successful testing
Slide 34: Business testing protocols with market parties
Reminder WG BAL 07/02/24 BUSINESS TESTING PROTOCOLS WITH MARKET PARTIES 13/02 + 22–23/02 iCAROS & MARI Ind.Test 1&2 End March Go/No- 26/02 Back-up iCAROS & MARI Ind. Test 1&2 4-8/03 Common testing week 1 Go MP readiness March February • Common testing: submission of production-like data (# of units,
Slide 35: PICASSO & aFRR Design evolutions
PICASSO & aFRR Design evolutions ACER Decision Elastic Demand (expected) Aug 7 Formal submission BR Targeted Approval BR Submission PfA T&C BSP aFRR Aug 30 Targeted approval T&C BSP aFRR Go-Live aFRR design evolutions (and aFRR dynamic dimensioning) Workshop elastic demand Informal submission BR Feb
Slide 36: Coming stakeholder management interactions
Coming stakeholder management interactions - Next interactions - Ongoing & coming consultations - Consultation of aFRR T&C [28/02/24-29/03/24] - Consultation of Balancing rules updated for PICASSO [End of March till end of April 24] (exact start and end date to be confirmed) - Announcements & commun
Slide 37: Contact persons
Contact persons KAM Energy Amandine Leroux / Arno Motté / Nicolas Koelman / Sybille Mettens Implementation ad hoc sessions (on request) • Q&A sessions dedicated to design and implementation questions • IT questions & Live debugging sessions with ELIA IT-team 37
Slide 38: Flexibility Roadmap
Flexibility Roadmap Anna Tsiokanos – Amandine Leroux – Nicolas Pierreux
Slide 39: Towards Energy & Grid Solutions 2027
Towards Energy & Grid Solutions 2027… 01.03.2024 | Brussels | CMS
Slide 40: Clear ambitions
Clear ambitions… 2021 2022 2022 2023 2023 FIT FOR 55 REPowerEU Green Deal Industrial Plan North Sea Summit Increased More renewables More investments More offshore decarbonisation development Accelerated expansion of Anchoring Europe’s net zero -55% renewable energy resources industry in 2030 (compa
Slide 41: Electricity consumption
Leading to a significant increase in expected electricity demand driven by electrification in industry, transport and heating Leading to an accelerated integration of renewable energy sources in Belgium Consumption Production +10TWh +20TWh Solar PV Onshore Wind Offshore Wind x2.2 x2.1 x2.5 +10TWh In
Slide 42: Our Priorities
Our Priorities 1 2 3 Grid Infrastructure Adequacy Flexibility For an efficient and orderly energy Ensure security of supply during the Ensure consumers and industry transition, the grid needs to be increase of electricity consumption can valorize their flexibility and ready on time and intermittent
Slide 43: Flexibility outlook: ADFLEX 2023
Flexibility outlook: ADFLEX 2023 Sufficient flexibility means will be available in the system… … the challenge is to unlock this flexibility (industrial flex, end-user flex such as electric vehicle, heat pumps, home batteries & solar panels,…). Development of downward flexibility will become increas
Slide 44: Flexibility challenges: affordability
Flexibility challenges: affordability – The energy transition should not endanger the reliability of the system but also be affordable for consumers – Elia will therefore strive for an efficient system management, with regards to both energy solutions and grid solutions 44
Slide 45: Towards Energy Solutions 2027
Towards Energy Solutions 2027… 45
Slide 46: Efficient balancing model combines implicit and explicit flexibility
Efficient balancing model combines Implicit and explicit flexibility Maximize welfare by using the most optimal mix of implicit and explicit Increasing flexibility Covered by flexibility needs means Price-based FOSTER (implicit) implicit contribution to system balance Driven by generation mix Volume
Slide 47: Energy Solutions 2024-2027: Initiatives to minimize balancing costs
Energy Solutions 2024-2027: Initiatives to minimize balancing costs Flexibility Needs and Means: efficient reserves dimensioning 2024 2025 2026 2027 Deepen the understanding on the market: FLEX TRACK & TRACE Dimension precisely: aFRR DYNAMIC DIMENSIONING (Oct 2024) Procure efficiently: PARTIAL PROCU
Slide 48: Increase liquidity and competition in Balancing Products
Energy Solutions 2024-2027: Initiatives to minimize balancing costs Increase liquidity and competition in Balancing Products 2024 2025 2026 2027 XB liquidity & competition: MARI (Jun 2024) PICASSO (Oct 2024) aFRR evolutions: Value stacking: AUCTION IN D-1, RT BASELINE, ACTIVATION Further facilitate
Slide 49: Initiatives to minimize costs: Increase competition
Energy Solutions 2024-2027: Initiatives to minimize costs Increase competition Customers want to be We develop energy services to increase participation of flexible assets driven by in control of their financial incentives (day-ahead, intraday and real-time balancing) energy costs Who is directly in
Slide 50: STEP 1 - Digitalize and facilitate BRP of tomorrow
STEP 1 - Digitalize and facilitate BRP of tomorrow 2024 2025 Digitalization BRP DiMaX (Direct Market Access) Multiple BRP Digital BRP of Additional functionalities tomorrow E-Wallet & faster settlement 2024 Epex/NordPool Discussions 2024 BRP Contract rewriting 2024 Review inconsistence penalties 202
Slide 51: STEP 2 - Evolve to a Real-Time Price
STEP 2 - Evolve to a Real-Time Price Game changer for Real-Time Price : 2024 2025 large scale batteries! Smart Real-Time Price Balancing Controller Simplify 2024 Second design note (formula) 2024 Parallel run 2024 Campaign European TSOs 2024 Hackathon 2024 & RTP Event 51
Slide 52: STEP 3 - Remove non-related obligations from the BRP role
STEP 3 - Remove all “non-related obligations” from the BRP role 2024 2025 mFRR HV & MV & LV EoEB for aFRR HV & MV & LV Explicit Flex EoEB 2024 2025 ToE Rules & related implementation plan 2024 Study on combos (xBRP & explicit flex) 2024 2025 Split BRP/SA Request from Customers 52
Slide 53: STEP 4 - Energy Community
STEP 4 - Energy Community (on request only) 2024 2025 TSO only Energy Community Cross-voltage 2024 Prospection on possible POC for Cross-voltage 53
Slide 54: Towards Grid Solutions 2027
Towards Grid Solutions 2027… 54
Slide 55: Grid Solutions RoadMap (1/2)
Grid Solutions RoadMap (1/2) Improve information and bidding process with all relevant resources and redispatch them in a reliable way in order to optimize usage of existing grid Icaros: deep review of the process of coordination of assets and congestion management in line with EU legislation SOGL/E
Slide 56: Grid Solutions RoadMap (2/2)
Grid Solutions RoadMap (2/2) Develop a grid that can host the increase of RES and demand in time while rationalizing the (investment) costs for society Flexibility will allow to: • connect grid users ahead of realisation of grid investments; • rationalise grid investments (CAPEX) in particular cases
Slide 57: Grid Solutions 2024-2027: GUFlex4CM
Grid Solutions 2024-2027: GUFlex4CM - Develop a grid that can host the increase of RES and demand in time while rationalizing the (investment) costs for society 2024 2025 > 2026… INCENTIVE study Clarify methodologies for grid development and connection : • Methodology & criteria for connection studi
Slide 58: Grid Solutions 2024-2027: iCaros
Grid Solutions 2024-2027: iCaros - Develop a grid that can host the increase of RES and demand in time while rationalizing the (investment) costs for society 2020- 2023 2024 2025 > 2026 Icaros phase I Important note: timings phase II are provisional Go live in Q2 2024 • Delayed effective go-live of
Slide 59: Grid Solutions 2024-2027: Non-frequency Ancillary Services
Grid Solutions 2024-2027: Non-frequency Ancillary Services Ensure liquidity, foster competition and ensure cost effectiveness 2024 2025 2026 2027 Foster competition by allowing more time to plan investments: INTRODUCTION OF COMPETITIVE Black Start DIALOGUE in T&C RSP Increase transparency: SUPPORTIN
Slide 60: DFD
DFD Feedback on report and milestones 2024 Aline Mathy
Slide 61: Definition and Planning
Reminder on incentive Definition DFDs are phenomena occurring on a regular basis resulting from a load and generation difference during a change of market time unit which generate a frequency deviation > 75mHz The incentive consisted in: Scope - the development of 2 forecasts (DFD + ACE contribution
Slide 62: ACE DFD Model performances in POC
Model performances in POC - Model, data and training set length possibly needs to be adapted for seasonality and DFD yearly variation - Limited DFD up occurrences during the last 3 months led to very few events for training - Model, data and training set ACE length possibly needs to be adapted for s
Slide 63: Conclusions on mitigation measures
Conclusions on mitigation measures Mitigation measures selection are highly depending on forecast efficiency. Mitigation measure selection to be reperformed after model improvement based on updated model performances. Improving forecast efficiency should allow the selection of the cheapest measure a
Slide 64: Next steps according to Implementation Plan
Next steps according to Implementation Plan 1 year 2024 Improve forecast Step 1 Derive mitigation measure Go/No-Go months +/- 6 > Step 2 Implementation Apply mitigation measure + Step 3 follow-up and report Presentation title 64
Slide 65: 2024 Step 1 Detailed Planning
1. Implement changes in forecasting 2024 Step 1 Model according to the conclusions of Detailed Planning the study 2. Implement the changes in the mitigation measure code wrt product evolutions in the framework of MARI/Picasso HL draft planning Info session Status Meeting 1 Status Meeting 2 (Status M
Slide 66: Smart Testing
Smart Testing Analysis of changes to the regulatory framework Carsten Bakker
Slide 67: Topics
Topics The goal of today is to present the elements that can have an impact on the methodology of smart testing that was defined in the incentive from 2020. Before going into the analysis, a short context is given regarding the smart testing methodology: 1. Context smart testing 2. Feedback on the p
Slide 68: Context Smart testing
-€ elia Context Smart testing
Slide 69: A small reminder – Smart testing methodology
A small reminder – Smart testing methodology Smart testing uses two scoring systems to select the bids for an availability test: • A scoring system to select the CCTU for an availability test • A scoring system to select a bid within that CCTU for an availability test The scoring is based on activat
Slide 70: CCTU scoring system
CCTU scoring system determines which CCTU to select for an availability test The Score per CCTU is based on 3 features: • Activation control: past activations structured data is required (date & time, • Availability test: past test failure/success, involved bid, DPs and their contribution, off-take
Slide 71: Bid scoring system
Bid scoring system determines which bid to select for an availability test Calibration to be done Features Weight Bid 1 Bid 2 Bid 3 • The Score per Bid is based on same 3 features but Volume 60 MW 30 MW 10 MW are adapted to the Bid Scoring System. Activation Control 33% 39 12 34 • The results of con
Slide 72: Test regimes
Test regimes • In addition to the scoring system, two test regimes are introduced to limit the impact (in volume) of availability tests: 1. The first test regime aims to ensure that a significant part of the contracted capacities from a BSP is compliant 2. The second test regime aims to keep in chec
Slide 73: Feedback on Consultation Report Smart Testing Methodology
Feedback on Consultation Report Smart Testing Methodology Stakeholders feedback 15 September 2020 – 15 October 2020
Slide 74: Scoring System - Availability test
Scoring System - Availability test Elia response: Regarding the scoring system for availability test, a score of 50 has been chosen As regards the availability test, why a score of 50 is to differentiate the situation where there are no test performed and failed tests. A attributed to the Score ref
Slide 75: Scoring System - Margin Analysis
Scoring System - Margin Analysis Elia response: From the supplied materials it is not clear to Flexcity Elia confirms the understanding of the stakeholder. If during one quarter hour a negative how the margin score for a CCTU would be determined margin is identified, the Scoremargin of the CCTU is n
Slide 76: Scoring System - Margin Analysis
Scoring System - Margin Analysis Elia response: For downward product, the reference to be used for a generation unit will be the The margin analysis, as described in the note, seems Pmin instead of Pmax. For DSM, the maximum measured off-take can be only applicable for mFRR, but not for FCR nor aFRR
Slide 77: Scoring System - Margin Analysis
Scoring System - Margin Analysis Elia response: Flexcity Elia agrees with the stakeholder on the possible impact of the baselining on the ScorerefMargin. For the sake of simplicity, Elia proposes to not consider such detail for which For sites which use ‘high X of Y’ baselining the margin the added
Slide 78: mFRR Impact of Contract Evolution
mFRR Impact of Contract Evolution
Slide 79: mFRR Contract Evolution & impacts
mFRR Contract Evolution & impacts 1. Energy Bidding → Not relevant for smart testing methodology 2. Bids selection → Not relevant for smart testing methodology 3. Activation → Not relevant for smart testing methodology 4. Remuneration → Not relevant for smart testing methodology 5. Activation contro
Slide 80: ELIA deleted the additional control for the Contracted Bids
ELIA deleted the additional control for the Contracted Bids • Purpose of this control: Ensure that the volume offered in a contracted Bid is available & that a lack of volume cannot be compensated through DP offered in a non-contracted bid → Availability test aims at addressing that risk too • Concl
Slide 81: aFRR Impact of Contract Evolution
aFRR Impact of Contract Evolution
Slide 82: aFRR Contract Evolution & impacts
aFRR Contract Evolution & impacts 1. Real-time baseline → Relevant, no impact on Smart testing methodology 2. 5’ FAT (Full Activation Time) → Relevant, no impact on Smart testing methodology 3. Move aFRR capacity auction to D-1 → Not relevant for smart testing methodology 4. Incentive 2022: activati
Slide 83: Incentive on Prequalification and penalties
Incentive on Prequalification and penalties Incentive on Prequalification, Control, and Penalties for the aFRR and mFRR Services
Slide 84: Incentive PQ & penalties Contract Evolution & impacts
Incentive PQ & penalties Contract Evolution & impacts 1. Onboarding & prequalification → Not relevant for smart testing methodology 2. Penatly MW made available → Not relevant for smart testing methodology 3. Activation control aFRR → Not relevant for smart testing methodology 4. Baseline aFRR → Rel
Slide 85: Reserve dimensioning
Reserve dimensioning Yearly reporting on FRR dimensioning Kristof De Vos
Slide 86: RECAP - Dynamic dimensioning methodology
RECAP - Dynamic dimensioning methodology • FRR reserve capacity is determined based on a probabilistic methodology in line with Article 157(2)b of the SOGL covering 99.0% of the LFC block imbalance risks • It takes into account two deterministic thresholds : • Always larger than the dimensioning inc
Slide 87: Available information
Available information ➢ Daily publication of the results (before 7 AM D-1): final FRR needs and mFRR balancing capacity (to be procured) ➢ Yearly analysis of the FRR needs and means : assess whether the positive and negative FRR needs have been sufficiently covered by the resources available. ➢ In l
Slide 88: FRR needs
FRR needs Upward FRR needs remain set by dimensioning incident (by largest nuclear generation unit) Downward FRR needs are pre- dominantly (73% of time) determined by dimensioning incident (by Nemo Link) 88
Slide 89: Nemo Link
Nemo Link 1. The informative forecasts, i.e. a forecast where Nemo Link is not predicted as “undefined” remains stable at 94% (compared to 93%) 2. The wrongful forecasts, i.e. situations where Nemo Link is predicted in import but observed in export or vice versa has nevertheless also decreased to 16
Slide 90: Upward compliance
Upward compliance Reporting Period 2021 2022 2023 Periods in which the FRR means > FRR needs 99,93% 99,80% 99,99% needs were not covered are related to FRR means > SI 100,00% 99,99% 100% periods with limited 99,99% 99,99% 99,99% sharing availabilities FRR needs > SI 90
Slide 91: Downward compliance
Downward compliance 1. FRR means Reporting cover FRR needs2021 Period for 99.46% of the time (vs. 98.46% in the previous2023 2022 reporting) Periods in which the needs were not covered are 97,70% related to periods with FRR means > FRR needs 2. FRR means cover SI for 99.99% of the time (same as in98
Slide 92: Incompressibility
Incompressibility Action plan 2024 and beyond Kristof De Vos
Slide 93: Context
Context Planning WG BALANCING • In 2023, Elia identified multiple incompressibility events in March and April which triggered an action plan to cover operational risks during the rest of Spring and Summer 27/3 Presentation action plan 2024 • May 16, 2023 : WG BAL presentation problem and outlook tog
Slide 94: Structure of the presentation
Structure of the presentation – Identification of the situation and outlook for Summer 2024, and beyond – Identification of the problem – Legal compliancy on FRR dimensioning versus operational risks – Outlook 2024 and beyond – Action plan Summer 2024 – Maintain and improve the incompressibility shu
Slide 95: Identification of the situation and outlook for Summer 2024 and beyond
Identification of the situation and outlook for Summer 2024 and beyond 95
Slide 96: Identification of the problem
Identification of the problem Day-ahead : incompressibility Real-time : operational risk • During incompressibility, it is likely that the FRR needs cannot be covered with non-contracted balancing means (FRR compliancy). • When all flexibility is offered to the day-ahead market • Low residual demand
Slide 97: A. Compliancy: FRR needs were covered within acceptable limits
Cf. Presentation on Yearly reporting on FRR dimensioning A. Compliancy : FRR needs were covered within acceptable limits Coverage of the downward FRR needs attains similar values as upward FRR needs 1. FRR means Reporting cover FRR needs2021 Period for 99.46% of the time (vs. 98.46% in the previous2
Slide 98: B. Operational risks during incompressibility triggers
B. Operational risks : risks during periods with incompressibility trigger Large positive imbalance combined with low market reaction may result in high area control errors 1. FRR needs are typically not covered by local means alone (ARC without sharing) during triggered events ➢ FRR needs are not n
Slide 99: Projection 2024 and beyond
Projection 2024 and beyond : no large improvements expected before 2026 ENTSO-E Summer outlook is expected to be available as from May 1. While renewable generation increases, the amount of hours with low prices and excess generation will continue to increase ➢ Current best estimates a yearly increa
Slide 100: Summary of Elia's understanding of the situation
Summary of Elia’s understanding of the situation The concern about incompressibility follows a combination of two separate problems: A. Ability of the market to manage well ‘predicted’ situations of high renewable generation. It is related to the ability of market parties to maintain a balanced port
Slide 101: Action plan 2024 and beyond
Action plan 2024 and beyond 101
Slide 102: Action plan 2024
Action plan 2024 A. Maintain and improve the measures implemented in 2023 ➢ Main mechanism : incompressibility shut down (mainly targeting ancillary service providing units), ➢ Facilitated by old regulatory framework (until 22/5/2024), and adapted to new regulatory framework (as from 22/5/2024) ➢ Ma
Slide 103: Context
Context In preparation of the summer period, Elia investigated the possible procedures that can be activated within the current legal framework LFCBOA Art. 7. 2 and 7.3 • Exceptional measures on top of balancing resources to reduce FRCE (cf. SOGL 152.12) • Activation of units that cannot provide FRR
Slide 104: Maintain and improve the incompressibility shut-down
Maintain and improve the incompressibility shut-down 3. How can the activation trigger be 1. What are units targeted by the measure ? improved in line with the escalation procedure? From 10 AM 1. Coordinable units (including CCGTs providing ancillary services at that time, e.g. aFRR) to 12 AM D-1 In
Slide 105: Revision of the shut down measure under the new framework
Revision of the incompressibility shut down measure under the new framework Existing framework Potential Framework as from mFRR prolonged following delayed activation go live (22/5) mFRR go live (22/5) as from 16/4 • Activation of Slow Start units ( ~units > 25 MW that have the Activation of Slow St
Slide 106: Process (until 22/5)
WG BAL 29/6 Process (until 22/5) 1. Detection 2. Reception bids & 3. Balancing 4. Activation of RD bids Notification to Market (shut down) • After reception of bids • 1x/week , on Thursday Full MO is followed • Once all balancing at D-1 8pm UMM 3* 6pm according to balancing means are depleted Market
Slide 107: Introduction of shutdown redispatching energy bid (until 22/5)
WG BAL 29/6 Introduction of “shutdown” redispatching energy bid (until 22/5) Concerned Delivery Points Activation Profile Production units included in SA Contract Elia will request the shutdown on 2 QH (30min) Coordinable (C) : time to shutdown (Pmin to 0 MW) > 15 min Total cost should take into a
Slide 108: Process (as from 22/5)
Process (as from 22/5) 1. Incompressibility Risk 2. Escalation procedure 3. Balancing 4. Activation of RD bids Detection trigger (shut down) • 10am until 12am D-1 • as from D-1 3 pm until • Once all balancing RT, a regular Full MO is followed Incompressibility risk according to balancing means are d
Slide 109: Introduction of shutdown redispatching energy bid (as from 22/5)
Introduction of “shutdown” redispatching energy bid (as from 22/5) Concerned Delivery Points Activation Profile Production units included in SA Contract Elia will request the shutdown according to the re- dispatching bids provided by the SA Coordinable (C) : time to shutdown (Pmin to 0 MW) > 12.5 mi
Slide 110: B. Further elaborate understanding based on monitoring
B. Further elaborate understanding of the situation based on monitoring Compliancy reporting (Q1 2024) Operational risk (post Summer reporting) Yearly FRR dimensioning reporting (assess FRR reserve capacity • Potential to elaborate ex post event reporting with : needs against the means) : • Incompre
Slide 111: C. Continue efforts on mid-term and long-term solutions
C. Continue efforts on mid-term and long-term solutions Elia is working development of solutions reduce entry barriers, increase competition and provide adequate price signals in order to facilitate and foster access of decentral flexibility to CCMD market design the electricity markets, and this as
Slide 112: Summary of Elia's understanding of the situation
Summary of Elia’s understanding of the situation The concern about incompressibility follows a combination of two separate problems: A. Ability of the market to manage well ‘predicted’ situations of high renewable generation. It is related to the ability of market parties to maintain a balanced port
Slide 113: Faster Settlement for Ancillary Services
Faster Settlement for Ancillary Services Martine Verelst
Slide 114: Current process
-€ elia Current process
Slide 115: Current Ancillary Services settlement process
Current Ancillary Services settlement process A. Calculation of remuneration and C. Invoicing and payment B. Iteration with BSP penalties Elia performs auctions & activations Email – Phone Elia calculates remuneration & penalties If BSP not agrees Elia sends “invoice proposal”/ BSP verifies “CN prop
Slide 116: Goal
Goal Elia would like to reduce the time between the delivery of the service and the payment of the renumeration and penalty regulation for the ancillary services. Elia whishes to achieve this through : - Optimising and automating as much as possible the internal processes and tools - Improving the w
Slide 117: Proposal for the future
-€ elia Proposal for the future
Slide 118: Faster Settlement AS – how the future process could look like
Faster Settlement AS – how the future process could look like Internal Elia tool Elia calculates remuneration & penalties automatically If BSP not agrees: Ticketing System in EPIC BSP Elia publishes reports on EPIC verifies Explicit/Implicit Launch of self-billing Elia automatic approval by BSP proc
Slide 119: Consider the introduction of the principle of Self-Billing
Consider the introduction of the principle of Self-Billing Self-billing is a process in which a buyer prepares its own invoice for the goods and services provided by another party. Traditionally, the supplier of the goods and services prepares and sends the invoice, and then the buyer checks and pay
Slide 120: Contextualization: main working areas
5 main working areas • Efficiency • Publication of • Implement • Provide • Define 4. Contextualization 3. Self-Billing 2. Connection to EPIC 5. Ticketing system 1. Settlement Tool gains by settlement Self-billing additional standard automatic reports process in information FAQ and robust which ELIA
Slide 121: Planning
-€ elia Planning
Slide 122: Desired high-level planning
Desired high-level planning 2024 2025 2026 • Internal • Implementation • Contextualisation settlement tool of interactions • Ticketing system automation with EPIC and • Process SAP description for • Not a big bang, interactions with but a phased EPIC & SAP approach per product - Next steps : organiz
Slide 123: AOB – Next WG Balancing
AOB – Next WG Balancing Thomas Van der Vorst
Slide 124: Next WG Balancing
Next WG Balancing • Dates for 2024: • WG Balancing 07/02/2024 09:00 – 13:00 • WG Balancing 02/04/2024 09:00 – 13:00 • WG Balancing 21/05/2024 09:00 – 13:00 • WG Balancing 28/06/2024 13:30 – 17:30 • WG Balancing 30/09/2024 14:00 – 18:00 • WG Balancing 22/11/2024 13:30 – 17:30 • WG Balancing 19/12/202