Oatly Group AB · NASDAQ:OTLY
Oatly Group AB — Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation
30 slides from Oatly Group AB's earnings presentation, November 2021
Slide 1: Oatly Q3 2021 Financial Presentation
‘THE ORIGINAL Ly! OATLY 3021 FINANCIAL PRESENTATION
Slide 2: Forward-looking statements
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical facts contained in this presentation, including statements regarding our future results of operations and financial position, industry dynamics, business strategy and plans and our objectives fo
Slide 3: It's like milk but made for humans
It’s like milk but made for humans.
Slide 4: Notes on Nielsen market data
– Notes: Nielsen only covers measured channels (~40% of total America revenue). 1. In key markets of Sweden, Germany, the U.S. and the U.K. for the last 52 weeks ending week 40, 2021 in Sweden, ending week 39 2021 in Germany, October 9, 2021 in the US, and October 9, 2021 in The U.K. Calculated as O
Slide 5: Oatly at a glance: revenue by region and channel
LTM Q3 2021 Revenue 2018 – Q3’21 Revenue CAGR (3) EMEA Americas Asia Planned Production Facilities by 2023 in 20+ markets Approx. Retail Doors(4) Approx. Foodservice locations(4) Food retail Foodservice(1) Other(2) Total Addressable Market Nearing Product Categories the Tipping Point of Adoption (5)
Slide 6: Total addressable market nearing tipping point
Source: Nielsen, IRI, management projections, Tmall Database Notes: Nielsen only covers measured channels (~40% of total America revenue). 1. In key markets of Sweden, Germany, the U.S. and the U.K. for the last 52 weeks ending week 40, 2021 in Sweden, ending week 39 2021 in Germany, October 9, 2021
Slide 7: Revenue and gross profit growth 2018 to LTM Q3 2021
(USD in millions) (USD in millions) ’18 - LTM Q3’21 $584 CAGR: 2018 – LTM Q3 2021 2018 – LTM Q3 2021 CAGR CAGR $161 $421 $129 $204 $67 $118 $48 Notes: % Margin 1. Revenue and gross profit for the year ended December 31, 2018 are management’s estimates that were derived from our audited Swedish conso
Slide 8: Plant-based milk penetration of dairy category
PBM penetration % of total retail dairy category based on volume (1) Based on value (1) 2019 3Q 2021 3Q 2021 8% +34% 11% 16% 6% +35% 8% 14% 4% +134% 9% 14% 5% +80% 9% 13% Source: Nielsen, Commissioned Consumer Insights survey. Notes: Sweden Nielsen data as of week 1, 2019 and week 32, 2021; U.K. IRI
Slide 9: Oat share of plant-based milk market
Inherent sustainable characteristics Flexible within the supply chain Widely accessible to a range of eaters Nutritional advantages % of total plant-based milk retail market (1) Oat Soy Almond Oat Dairy Alternatives 50% Oat surpassed Oat surpassed almond Oat surpassed soy Oat Oat 80% almond and soy
Slide 10: Oatly contribution to plant-based milk growth
Total plant-based market share (1) 50% 70% 30% 60% 25% 40% 50% 20% 30% 40% 15% 30% 20% 10% 20% 10% 5% 10% 0% 0% 0% Oct ‘18 Sep ‘21 Oct ‘18 Sep ‘21 Oct ‘18 Sep ‘21 50% contributed by Oatly 27% contributed by Oatly 22% contributed by Oatly of plant-based milk growth of plant-based milk growth of plant
Slide 11: EMEA historical quarterly revenue
Historical Quarterly Revenue Since Q1 2019 $87.4 (USD in millions) $81.7 15+ markets $77.9 $78.5 $71.0 $59.1 $59.7 $46.4 $38.1 43,000+ Retail Doors(1) $36.5 $33.7 13,000+ Foodservice Locations(1) Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Source: Unaudite
Slide 12: EMEA velocity and distribution points
Velocity: Units per store selling per week (1) Total distribution points (3) Velocity: Units per store selling per week (1) Total distribution points (3) Based on largest oatmilk SKUs MAT (1) Oatly’s TDP vs. largest PBM brand Based on largest oatmilk SKUs MAT (1) Oatly’s TDP vs. largest PBM brand 34
Slide 13: United States historical quarterly revenue
$49.5 Historical Quarterly Revenue Since Q1 2019 (USD in millions) United States $41.3 $33.5 $28.2 $26.4 $25.1 $20.3 18,000+ Retail Doors(1) $14.7 $11.7 $7.4 $5.3 34,000+ Foodservice Locations(1) Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Source: Unaudite
Slide 14: Oatly oatmilk velocity and stores selling
Oatly brand-level oatmilk velocity & number of stores selling 14,000 Stores Scanned 50 Units/Store/Week 45 12,000 40 41 40 10,000 35 12,037 32 Units/Store/Week 30 Store Scanned 8,000 25 6,000 20 18 4,000 15 7,840 10 4,556 2,000 5 1,919 0 0 Source: Nielsen xAOC Notes: Nielsen only covers measured cha
Slide 15: Velocity versus other milk brands and %ACV
Velocity: Dollars per store selling per SKU per week (1) Brand-level %ACV Oatly brand-level velocity vs. other milk brands Oatly’s %ACV vs. largest PBM brand (3) 89% $69 $64 Δ $50 $49 55 p.p. $39 $38 $33 $29 34% Oatly Organic dairy Organic dairy Lactose-free Nondairy Dairy Nondairy Nondairy Oatly La
Slide 16: Asia historical quarterly revenue
Historical Quarterly Revenue Since Q1 2019 $34.2 (USD in millions) 5 core markets Mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea $26.3 $24.9 $21.0 $17.3 13,000+ Retail & Specialty Doors(1) $10.6 $4.5 $4.8 $2.6 $1.3 $1.8 25,000+ Foodservice Locations(1) Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2
Slide 17: Oatly #1 selling oatmilk on Tmall
Localized production at our Maanshan, China facility to begin production in November • Oatly is the #1 selling oatmilk on (1) • Significant room for distribution expansion in retail as we scale capacity – even within existing retail locations 1. On Tmall, from Tmall database as of November 2021.
Slide 18: Q3 2021 consolidated results
Production volume(1) 74 131 % % Margin 31.3% 26.2% Margin (4.0%) (15.8%) Sales 76 110 volume(1) +49% (2) $171 $115 $52 $45 $36 $33 ($5) ($27) • Broad-based growth across all • Strong demand for our products has • Adjusted EBITDA loss increased due • Continued to invest in capacity to regions and cha
Slide 19: Q3 2021 results by region
Production volume(1) 57 97 17 32 – 2 74 131 Sales 51 63 16 30 10 17 76 110 volume(1) +49% (2) $171 +23% $87 (3) +87% +98% $115 $71 $49 (4) $26 $34 $17 • All-time production high in EMEA • All-time production high in Americas • Growth across sales channels • Total revenue growth continued to reflect
Slide 20: Key drivers of profitability in the medium term
KEY DRIVERS OF PROFITABILITY IN THE MEDIUM-TERM INCREASING IN-HOUSE PRODUCTION THROUGH HYBRID AND END-TO-END MODELS LOCALIZATION OF PRODUCTION ALLOWS US TO IMPROVE ECONOMICS AND IMPROVE SERVICE LEVELS OPERATING LEVERAGE FROM RAPID INCREASE IN SALES COUPLED WITH A LOWER INCREASE IN SG&A SIGNIFICANT M
Slide 21: Production models: co-pack, hybrid, end-to-end
▪ Quickest and easiest option to market ▪ Oat base is transported via pipeline to ▪ In-house oat base manufacturing, mixing partners who execute the mixing and filling and filling in one location ▪ Higher costs from shipping and profit share process ▪ Flexibility to build value-added processes ▪ Oat
Slide 22: Global production footprint and expected capacity
Date of go-live Peterborough, U.K. = Established capacity = Capacity added in 2021 (2022/2023) = Near-term capacity expansions Maanshan, CN = Self-Manufacturing Ogden, U.S. = Hybrid (Year) = Expected expansion (2022) Asia III Millville, U.S. (2022/2023) Total expected capacity at Fort Worth, U.S. La
Slide 23: 3Q21 production commentary
3Q21 Commentary • Increased our quarterly production output by 23% vs prior Ogden production quarter and 78% prior year (Million litres of finished goods) delays 52.0 ending at 131ML 45.7 46.3 • Third quarter below expectations due to slower ramp up in Ogden 40.1 39.4 • Ogden production improved sin
Slide 24: Capacity expansion and capital expenditures
(USD in millions) (Million litres of finished goods)(1) 2021 2022 (1) 2023 (1) 2021 2023 (1) • Vlissingen (NL) • Landskrona (SE) • Landskrona (SE) • Ogden (U.S.) • Peterborough (U.K.) Historic production volume ~1,475 • Millville (U.S.) • Ogden (U.S.) • Maanshan (CN) • Asia III • Ogden (U.S.) • Sing
Slide 25: 2021 revenue outlook bridge
(USD in millions) Prior forecast for illustrative purposes >51% growth YoY >$635 $421 2020 EMEA Americas Asia 2021E
Slide 26: Revenue forecast versus prior plan
Strong 49% revenue growth y/y partially offset by: • Americas: $3M below plan due to lower than expected production output at the Company’s facility in Ogden, UT primarily due to (USD in millions) temporary mechanical and automation issues in late August. Prior forecast for illustrative purposes • A
Slide 27: Adjusted EBITDA margin outlook notes
Notes: 1. Adjusted EBITDA margin is a non-IFRS measure. See the Appendix to this presentation for a reconciliation to the nearest IFRS measure. The Company cannot provide a reconciliation between of EBITDA guidance to the corresponding IFRS metric without unreasonable efforts, as we are unable to pr
Slide 28: Growth strategy priorities
Accelerate brand awareness and consumer trial Invest in global production capacity to capture immense demand Expand into new markets with proven, disciplined and thoughtful multi-channel strategy Drive category growth through distribution, velocity and market share gains in existing markets Roll out
Slide 29: Appendix
| b (Beaty festival APPENDIX
Slide 30: Adjusted EBITDA reconciliation
Three months ended September 30, Nine months ended September 30, 2021 2020 2021 2020 (in thousands $) Loss for the period attributable to shareholders of the parent (41.193) (10,407) (132,640) (23,370) Income tax expense 567 554 2,779 1,326 Finance income and expenses, net (3,831) 1,971 8,785 4,644