Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.s. · BIST:TUPRS
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.s — Tüpraş — Q1 2021 Earnings Presentation
31 slides from Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.s's earnings presentation, May 5, 2021
Slide 1: Q1 2021 Earnings Presentation
Q1 2021 Earnings Presentation 5 May 2021 Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 2: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by variables and changes in und
Slide 3: Q1 2021 Tüpraş Highlights
Q1 2021 Tüpraş Highlights $/bbl 10 Q1 Better gasoline cracks partially compensated weak mid distillate cracks 2 • Mid distillate cracks remained flat compared to previous quarter with low season, ongoing demand weakness and elevated stock levels. -6 Diesel Gasoline Jet WACM* • Gasoline cracks mainta
Slide 4: Market
Market Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 5: Q1 2021 – Key Market Highlights
Q1 2021 – Key Market Highlights Brent prices reached pre-covid levels in Q1’21 with vaccine Reduction in OPEC+ production cut continues to widen the heavy news, supportive OPEC+ decision and normalizing demand grade differentials Global Oil Market 70.0 9 8.1 8.1 7.9 1 7.8 7.8 8 7.2 7.3 OPEC+ 60.0 0.
Slide 6: Quarterly Crack Margin Comparison ($/bbl) 2016 - 2021
Quarterly Crack Margin Comparison ($/bbl) 2016 - 2021 Stock levels of Diesel is still elevated resulting in historically lower cracks. Upward trend in gasoline cracks continues. 2021 2020 2016-2020 Min - Max Diesel Jet Fuel Refineries continued to Despite ongoing recovery - switch to diesel to reduc
Slide 7: Heavy Crude Price Differentials to Brent ($/bbl)
Heavy Crude Price Differentials to Brent ($/bbl) Differentials widened slightly in Q1 however still narrow compared to historical averages. OPEC’s latest decision for increasing production has led to widening in April and May. 2 0 -2 Arab Heavy -4 Basrah Heavy -6 Kirkuk Ural -8 Average* -10 Iran OPE
Slide 8: Operations
Operations Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 9: Capacity Utilization and Quarterly Production Volume
Capacity Utilization and Quarterly Production Volume • Tüpraş produced 4.6 million tons in Q1 2021. • Capacity utilization for Q1 2021 was 65% - lower y-o-y due to maintenance shutdown in İzmir for two months. Quarterly Production (Million Tons) Capacity Utilization (%) 2018 2019 2020 2021 Crude Oil
Slide 10: Sales in Q1 (Million Tons)
Sales in Q1 (Million Tons) Tüpraş generated 5 million tons of sales in Q1 2021. Despite resilient domestic demand, total sales decreased due to İzmir maintenance. Total Sales Domestic Sales of Selected Products Domestic Sales Exports Diesel Jet Fuel Gasoline Bitumen 7.2 7.2 6.2 6.2 0.3 0.3 2.3 2.1 0
Slide 11: Financials
Kapak fotolarını yenilesek mi? Financials Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 12: Tüpraş Net Margin and Med Complex Margin Comparison ($/bbl)
Tüpraş Net Margin and Med Complex Margin Comparison ($/bbl) Q1 Margins Tüpraş Net Med Margin • Tüpraş net refining margin was better y-o-y, 8.7 strongly supported with inventory effect despite historically weak crack margins and narrower differentials. 5.0 4.8 4.0 4.2 3.6 • Tüpraş Net Margin outperf
Slide 13: Income Statement (Million TL)
Income Statement (Million TL) EBITDA realized as 1,170 mn TL in Q1 2021. Q1 Q1 Million TL % 2021 2020 Net Sales 19,821 16,940 17% COGS -18,294 -17,849 -2% Gross Profit 1,527 -909 - Operating Expenses -557 -458 -22% Income/Loss from other operations -1,584 -349 -353% Operating Profit -614 -1,716 64%
Slide 14: Q1 Profit Before Tax Bridge (2021-2020)
Q1 Profit Before Tax Bridge (2021-2020) Despite the worsening crack margins compared to the previous year, Q1 2021 PBT has recovered with the positive impact of higher Brent Crude Oil prices. Million TL 05/05/2021 Hizmete Özel / Confidential www.tupras.com.tr 14 Earnings Presentation
Slide 15: Financial Highlights
Financial Highlights EBITDA (mn TL) Q4 Net Income¹ (mn TL) Q4 Q3 3,812 Q3 8,908 3,713 Q2 493 Q2 1,887 Q1 992 1,766 Q1 5,882 1,457 542 526 1,237 3,778 4,039 1,027 186 -2,494 1,528 869 870 -760 738 378 376 -375 956 -155 -760 1,542 2,210 545 1,170 1,495 383 -2,265 1,575 977 1,033 851 1,170 477 -185 -42
Slide 16: Balance Sheet Analysis
Balance Sheet Analysis Net Debt Redemption Schedule (Billion TL) bn TL bn $ In Billion TL In Billion $ 13.9 TL Hard Currency 20 17.8 6 5 11.0 15 12.5 12.0 12.2 4 11.0 9.4 6.2 10 8.4 3 6.2 2 5 2.3 2.3 2.3 1.7 1.9 1 1.4 1.6 1.5 0.1 0.2 1.3 0 0 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 1
Slide 17: FX Exposure Management (31 March 2021)
FX Exposure Management (31 March 2021) Consolidated Hard Consolidated Hard Currency Assets Currency Liabilities Million $ Payables & Other Cash Liabilities 336 2,373 Tüpraş continues to employ strict FX Receivables & Other Assets ST Financial Loans policies to mitigate currency risks 128 1,052 • RUP
Slide 18: Outlook for 2021
Outlook for 2021 Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 19: Q1 2021 Results
Q1 2021 Results Capacity Utilization (%) Refining Margins ($/bbl) Q1 65.0 65% total capacity 2021 utilization in Q1 2021 Med Margin Tüpraş Net Margin 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Med FY Tüpraş FY Exp Target Operationals -0.2 Q1 2021 FY Target 5.0 mn tons of sales and Q1 2021 4.6 mn tons of 26 26
Slide 20: 2021 Refinery Maintenance Schedule
2021 Refinery Maintenance Schedule Starting Refinery Unit Duration (weeks) Purpose Status Quarter Batman Crude Oil & Vacuum Q1 7* Seasonal Done Crude Unit Q1 9 Done CCR Q1 10 Done Revamp / Opportunity FCC Q1 9 Done Maintenance İzmir Isomerization Q1 10 Done Desulphurizer Q1 11 Done Vacuum Q4 6 Perio
Slide 21: 2021 Expectations
2021 Expectations Med Complex Refining Margin 0.0 - 0.5 $/bbl Tüpraş Net Refining Margin 2.5 - 3.5 $/bbl • 26-27 mt production, 26-27 mt sales and 90 - 95% capacity utilization Consolidated Capex ~200 million $ • ~40% of capex for sustainability focused energy efficiency and environmental projects 0
Slide 22: www.tupras.com.tr
www.tupras.com.tr 05/05/2021 Hizmete Özel / Confidential www.tupras.com.tr 22 Earnings Presentation
Slide 23: Appendix
Appendix Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 24: Turkish Market, 2M 2021
Turkish Market, 2M 2021 Million Tons Diesel ¹Jet Fuel -4.1% -45.7% 3.6 3.4 0.7 0.4 2020 Jan-Feb Jan-Feb 2021 Gasoline LPG -17.9% -12.3% 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 Jan-Feb Jan-Feb ¹Transit flight consumption included 05/05/2021 Hizmete Özel / Confidential Earnings Presentation www.tupras.com.tr Turkish Market 2
Slide 25: OPET
OPET Opet has 1,765 fuel stations as of March 2021 end. Opet Sunpet 1,766 1,765 Market Share 1,670 as of February 2021 1,615 1,560 1,504 1,444 1,325 1,356 1,393 495 563 564 18.28 % 10.51 % 1,279 434 463 431 427 435 410 418 White Black 394 Product Product 1,073 1,126 1,152 1,175 1,203 1,201 915 938 9
Slide 26: Crack Margin Effect on Tüpraş in Q1 (FOB Italy Prices)
Crack Margin Effect on Tüpraş in Q1 (FOB Italy Prices) Product Price ($/ton) Tüpraş Crack Margin ($/bbl) Product Q1 2021 Q1 2020 Production Yields Q1 2021 Q1 2020 LPG 511 429 4,8% -15,4 -12,0 Gasoline 558 464 19,9% 7,9 6,9 Naphtha 522 381 3,4% -2,0 -7,3 Jet Fuel 494 458 12,2% 1,9 8,1 Diesel 487 458
Slide 27: Q1 Product Yields
Q1 Product Yields Q1 2020 Q1 2021 LPG Other Bitumen Other 4% Bitumen 2% LPG Kok 7% Kok 7% 3% 1% 4% 5% Gasoline Fuel Oil Gasoline Other Fuel Oil Other 19% 2% 21% white 2% white Light Black Prod. 2% Light Black Prod.2% Distil. 14% Distil. 13% 25% 25% Naphtha Naphtha 1% 3% Mid. Distil. Mid. Distil. Jet
Slide 28: Tüpraş Balance Sheet (Million TL)
Tüpraş Balance Sheet (Million TL) 31.03.2021 31.12.2020 Diff. Diff. (%) Current Assets 39,091 30,663 8,428 27 Cash & C. Equivalents 21,145 19,825 1,319 7 Trade Receivables 3,758 1,736 2,022 117 Derivatives 1,617 380 1,237 325 Inventories 11,385 7,701 3,684 48 Pre-paid expenses 124 234 -109 -47 Other
Slide 29: Tüpraş and Med Margins ($/bbl)
Tüpraş and Med Margins ($/bbl) Average Margins Tüpraş Net Margin Med Margin 10 9.3 8 6 4.6 3.7 4 1.7 1.8 1.5 2 1.3 1.2 0 -0.2 -0.2 -2 2018 2019 2020 Q1 2020 Q1 2021 Gross Inventory Clean Gross Clean NET Net ($/bbl) Med Margin Margin Effect Margin Margin Margin Q1 2020 7.1 -2.7 9.8 3.9 1.2 1.8 202020
Slide 30: Finished Product and Semi Product Imports (Thousand Tons)
Finished Product and Semi Product Imports (Thousand Tons) Product Imports Q1 2021 Q1 2020 270 183 150 148 134 63 66 20 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Diesel Jet Fuel HVGO ASR F. Oil LSFO Naphtha Alkylate MTBE 05/05/2021 Hizmete Özel / Confidential Earnings Presentation www.tupras.com.tr 30
Slide 31: www.tupras.com.tr
www.tupras.com.tr 05/05/2021 Hizmete Özel / Confidential www.tupras.com.tr 31 Earnings Presentation