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London Stock Exchange — LSEG Webinar: Navigating the palm oil market: Insights amid global trade shifts and geopol (October 2025)
53 slides from London Stock Exchange's conference presentation, Oct 14, 2025
Slide 1: Navigating the palm oil market: Insights amid global trade shifts
LSEG WEBINAR Navigating the palm oil market: Insights amid global trade shifts and geopolitic LSEG anatyrics
Slide 2: Speakers
Speakers Laurent Crastre (Moderator) Kian Pang Tan Senior Manager, Agriculture Research Research Lead, Agriculture Research LSEG LSEG Brandon Chia Issabelle Cheah Assistant Vice President, Investor Management Senior Manager, Derivatives Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Berhad UOB KayHian LSEG anaivincs
Slide 3: 2025/26 Palm Oil Market Outlook: Navigating Climate Challenges & EUDR Regulations
2025/26 Palm Oil Market Outlook: Navigating Climate Challenges & EUDR Regulations Kian Pang Tan, PhD Research Lead, Agriculture
Slide 4: 2025/26 Palm Oil Market Outlook: Navigating Climate Challenges & EUDR
2025/26 Palm Oil Market Outlook: Navigating Climate Challenges & EUDR Regulations Kian Pang Tan, PhD Research Lead, Agriculture 14 October 2025 LSEG 4
Slide 5: LSEG Agriculture Research
LSEG Agriculture Research Providing independent analysis on area, yield, production, weather and trade flows for the world’s major grains, oilseeds and softs LSEG 5
Slide 6: Production Outlook
Production Outlook Indonesia Production Outlook Indonesia CPO production Preliminary 2025/26 (Oct-Sep) Indonesia palm oil - Indonesia's cumulative CPO production production is placed at 49 million tonnes, down 1% (January–July 2025) from the 2024/25 season. - Increased by 11.1% year- on-year to 30.5
Slide 7: Past Weather
Past Weather Dry Weather - May to July-palm oil regions faced dry, hot weather with rainfall deficits and increased hotspots, leading to transboundary haze. Wet Weather Transition - August - September, wet conditions replenished soil moisture but caused Dry spell localized flooding and infrastructur
Slide 8: Regional Rainfall Variations
Regional Rainfall Variations Regional Rainfall Variations -The northern part of Sumatra (Aceh and Sumatera Utara, accounting for about 14% of the national production) experienced rainfall deficits, which may affect palm oil yields during the 2025/26 season. -Remaining key palm regions observed sligh
Slide 9: Global ENSO Outlook
Global ENSO Outlook Weak La Niña Development A weak La Niña is forecasted with cooling sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 Region, indicating climate impacts ahead. Regional Weather Impacts in Southeast Asia Forecasts indicate a return to wetter conditions in late October and early November, ra
Slide 10: South American Soybean Weather and Production Outlook
South American Soybean Weather and Production Outlook The weather forecast for December-February Brazil's soybean planting for 2025/26 season has indicates that Argentina will face hot and dry started. 9% of expected area reached. Fastest planting conditions detrimental to corn and soy crops, while
Slide 11: EUDR Regulation Background and Market Uncertainties
EUDR Regulation Background and Market Uncertainties EUDR (EU Deforestation Regulation) Objectives Impacts on Palm Oil Market Uncertainties around compliance have reduced EUDR focuses on reducing forest degradation, liquidity in the CIF Rotterdam market and created greenhouse gas emissions, and biodi
Slide 12: Trade Policies Favouring Palm Oil Exports
Trade Policies Favouring Palm Oil Exports Indonesia-EU Trade Agreement The Indonesia-EU CEPA (Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement) removes import duties on most EU exports to Indonesia EU-27 palm oil imports and offers zero tariffs on 90% of Indonesian goods entering the EU, 8000 including
Slide 13: Conclusions
Conclusions 2025/26 Production Challenges Modest declines in palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia are expected due to structural challenges and disease pressures. Weather and Climate Risks Weather variability including flooding and weak La Niña forecast increase market uncertainty. Trade Po
Slide 14: Thank you
Thank you © LSEG 2025. All rights reserved. London Stock Exchange Group plc and its Group companies (“LSEG”) do not guarantee that any information contained in this document is and will remain accurate or that use of the information will ensure correct and faultless operation of the relevant service
Slide 15: BMD's Roadmap to a Global Edible Oil Hub
BMD’s Roadmap to a Global Edible Oil Hub – Strengthening CPO Benchmark and Expanding Products Brandon Chia Derivatives & Carbon Markets, Bursa Malaysia
Slide 16: BMD's Roadmap to a Global Edible Oil Hub
BMD’s Roadmap to a Global Edible Oil Hub – Strengthening CPO Benchmark and Expanding Products Presented by Brandon Chia Derivatives & Carbon Markets, Bursa Malaysia
Slide 17: Overview of Bursa Malaysia Derivatives and the Malaysian Derivatives Market
Overview of Bursa Malaysia Derivatives and the Malaysian Derivatives Market
Slide 18: Changing Landscape of the Malaysian Derivatives Exchange
Changing Landscape of the Malaysian Derivatives Exchange YEAR 1980 YEAR 1995 YEAR 1996 YEAR 1998 Kuala Lumpur Commodity Exchange Kuala Lumpur Options and Financial Malaysian Monetary Exchange (MME) KLCE and MME merged to form the (KLCE) was the first Commodity Futures Exchange (KLOFFE) was set was f
Slide 19: Governance Structure
Governance Structure BURSA MINISTRY SECURITIES BURSA MALAYSIA MALAYSIA OF FINANCE COMMISSION DERIVATIVES BERHAD BERHAD The Federal Treasury as a Established on 1 March 1993 An exchange holding company A wholly-owned subsidiary of central agency is entrusted under the Securities incorporated in 1976
Slide 20: Bursa Malaysia Derivatives (BMD) Key Highlight
Bursa Malaysia Derivatives (BMD) Key Highlight 2024 NEW HIGH RECORD OVERALL F C P O F K L I NEW HIGH SINGLE-DAY TRADING VOLUME TRADING VOLUME 22.75mil 18.95mil 3.65mil F C P O F K L I Last, 19.10mil year 2022 Last, 16.21mil year 2022 Last, 3.50mil year 2020 166,266 95,240 AVERAGE DAILY CONTRACT (ADC
Slide 21: Bursa Malaysia Derivatives (BMD) Product Overview
Bursa Malaysia Derivatives (BMD) Product Overview FKLI OKLI F4GM FM70 COMMODITY FTSE Bursa Malaysia FTSE Bursa Malaysia FTSE4Good Bursa Mini FTSE Bursa KLCI Futures KLCI Options Malaysia Index Futures Malaysia Mid 70 AGRICULTURE & METAL Index Futures 2025 NEW EDIBLE OIL PRODUCT SUITE EQUITY INDEX &
Slide 22: Introduction to Bursa Malaysia Crude Palm Oil Futures (FCPO) Contract
Introduction to Bursa Malaysia Crude Palm Oil Futures (FCPO) Contract
Slide 23: The Global Price Benchmark For Crude Palm Oil
The Global Price Benchmark For Crude Palm Oil F C P O Crude Palm Oil (“CPO”) Futures 4 countries in the world offer 6 similar 97% of global trades products which are India, Indonesia, Malaysia and United States of America. Bursa Malaysia is holding 97% of futures trades in the world which is the mos
Slide 24: FCPO Price and Physical CPO Price (MPOB)
FCPO Price and Physical CPO Price (MPOB) Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) Daily Price vs FCPO Spot Month Contract Price (Jan – Dec 2024) 6000 5000 4000 RM 3000 2000 1000 0 Date MPOB Price FCPO Spot Price 24
Slide 25: The Global Centre for Palm Oil Price Discovery
The Global Centre for Palm Oil Price Discovery Bursa Malaysia Derivatives offers the most liquid and successful crude palm oil futures (FCPO) contract in the world, consolidating Malaysia’s position as the global FCPO FPOL OCPO OPOL Options on US Dollar Crude Palm Oil US Dollar RBD Palm Options on C
Slide 26: The Global Centre for Palm Oil Price Discovery
The Global Centre for Palm Oil Price Discovery Fresh Fruit Bunches Milling Crude Palm Oil Palm Kernel Refining Crushing IV RBD Palm Oil 50-55 Crude Palm Kernel Oil Fractionating Refining IV Processing RBD Palm Olein 56-60 RBD Palm Kernel Oil Processing Oleochemicals/Food Products/Home & Personal Car
Slide 27: The Significance of Palm Oil & Its Usage
Restricted The Significance of Palm Oil & It’s Usage Reference Number #000000 Page 27
Slide 28: FCPO Journey
FCPO Journey • On 13 November 2024, BMD • FCPO was • Starting from 1 achieved a historic launched in Oct April 2021, all milestone as the 1980, setting the CME Globex FCPO physical daily trading stage for palm oil Electronic deliveries require Member of volume for Crude futures trading. Trading an M
Slide 29: Crude Palm Oil Futures (FCPO)
Crude Palm Oil Futures (FCPO) PRODUCT SPECIFICATION 1 Underlying Asset Crude Palm Oil F C P O 2 3 Settlement Method Contract Size Physical Delivery 25 Metric Tons (MT) CRUDE PALM OIL FUTURES 4 Minimum Price MYR1.0/MT Fluctuation Global price benchmark and reference point for 5 Contract Months Spot m
Slide 30: Crude Palm Oil Futures (FCPO) Growth and Price Trend
Crude Palm Oil Futures (FCPO) Growth and Price Trend FCPO CONTRACTS 8mil 15mil 19mil >100% TRADED YEAR 2013 YEAR 2023 YEAR 2024 GROWTH RATE ADC 32,000 ADC 61,000 ADC 76,705 2013 – 2024 FCPO PRICE TREND YEAR 2013 – 2024 17% 50% 9,000 22% DOMESTIC > RM8,000 VOLATILITY RETAIL 22% 8,000 63% 7,000 9% 6%
Slide 31: Trading volume of FCPO
Trading volume of FCPO FCPO 20,000,000 18,000,000 16,000,000 Increase in Trading Volume Percentage (%) 14,000,000 1 Year 27.85 12,000,000 21.39 3 Years Global Russia Covid- 10,000,000 Financial El Niño Ukraine 5 Years 77.00 Crisis 19 War 8,000,000 10 Years 86.55 20 Years 1534.40 6,000,000 4,000,000
Slide 32: Factors Affecting FCPO Price
Factors Affecting FCPO Price Factor Impact on FCPO Prices Price Direction Higher supply leads to lower prices, while higher demand Supply and Demand ↑ Demand: ， ↑ Supply: leads to higher prices. Adverse weather (e.g., droughts, excessive rainfall) can reduce Adverse weather, ↓ Weather Conditions pro
Slide 33: Bursa Malaysia DCE Soybean Oil Futures (FSOY)
Bursa Malaysia DCE Soybean Oil Futures (FSOY)
Slide 34: Bursa Malaysia DCE Soybean Oil Futures (FSOY)
Bursa Malaysia DCE Soybean Oil Futures (FSOY) PRODUCT SPECIFICATION F S OY 1 Underlying Asset Crude Soybean Oil (Quality Standard as per the Soybean Futures Contract of Dalian Commodity Exchange 2 Contract Size 25 Metric Tons (MT) BURSA MALAYSIA DCE 3 Minimum Price USD 0.25/MT SOYBEAN OIL FUTURES Fl
Slide 35: Introduction Of FSOY
Introduction Of FSOY USE OF WHAT IS FSOY ? PRODUCT SOYBEAN OIL Cooking oil, salad dressings, Crude soybean oil future contracts Mainly processed for margarine licensed from Dalian Commodity human consumption Exchange China (DCE). & biodiesel FCPO and FSOY Price Chart Benefits of FSOY 1400 1200 MARGI
Slide 36: Argentine SO vs CBOT BO & DCE BO
Argentine SO vs CBOT BO & DCE BO Page 36
Slide 37: USD Used Cooking Oil FOB Straits (Platts) Futures Contracts (FUCO)
USD Used Cooking Oil FOB Straits (Platts) Futures Contracts (FUCO)
Slide 38: Introduction Of FUCO
Introduction Of FUCO WHAT IS UCO ? SOURCES ? PRODUCT ? Cooking oils and fats that are used Various vegetable oils such as Biodiesel, animal feed, for cooking or frying in the food corn, canola, olive, palm and oleochemicals, and renewable processing industry (restaurants, animal fats. energy. food s
Slide 39: New: USD Used Cooking Oil FOB Straits (Platts) Futures (FUCO)
New: USD Used Cooking Oil FOB Straits (Platts) Futures (FUCO) PRODUCT SPECIFICATION F U C O Underlying Asset Used cooking oil (quality standard as per the Specification for Used Cooking Oil (UCO) FOB Straits set out in the Global Biofuels Specifications Guide issued by S&P Global Commodity Insights)
Slide 40: Thank You
Restricted Brandon Chia AVP, Derivatives Business Development Derivatives & Carbon Markets THANK YOU brandon@bursamalaysia.com DISCLAIMER: These presentation slides are owned by Bursa Malaysia Berhad and/or the Bursa Malaysia group of companies (“Bursa Malaysia”). Whilst Bursa Malaysia endeavours to
Slide 41: 4Q2025 Palm Oil Market Outlook Balancing Demand, Supply & Policies
4Q2025 Palm Oil Market Outlook Balancing Demand, Supply & Policies Issabelle Cheah Senior Manager, Derivatives
Slide 42: 4Q2025 Palm Oil Market Outlook
4Q2025 Palm Oil Market Outlook Balancing Demand, Supply & Policies Presented by Issabelle Cheah Senior Manager, Derivatives
Slide 43: Seasonally Tighter Production in Q4
Seasonally Tighter Production in Q4 Malaysia CPO Production & Endstocks Domestic Consumption 2,500,000 600,000 500,000 2,000,000 400,000 1,500,000 300,000 1,000,000 200,000 500,000 100,000 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 10Y Avg 202
Slide 44: Key Destinations - China
Key Destinations - China China Vegoils Ending Stocks vs Soybean Crushing Activity Palm Oil Imports and Ending Stocks 3.00 12.00 800,000 Millions Millions 700,000 Soybean Crushing (MT) 2.50 10.00 Ending Stocks ( MT) 600,000 2.00 8.00 500,000 1.50 6.00 400,000 1.00 4.00 300,000 200,000 0.50 2.00 100,0
Slide 45: Key Destinations - India
Key Destinations - India India Palm Imports and Ending Stocks India Import Margin vs POBO Spread 1,200,000 USD 200 1,000,000 USD 150 USD 100 800,000 USD 50 600,000 USD 0 400,000 -USD 50 200,000 -USD 100 -USD 150 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -USD 200 1/2024 4/2024 7/2024 10/2024
Slide 46: Indonesia's Biodiesel Drive
Indonesia’s Biodiesel Drive Indonesia’s biodiesel program remains the most pivotal domestic demand driver for palm oil, but its next phase is now at a crossroads. • Strong B40 uptake: As of Aug 2025, Indonesia had utilized 9.38 million kl, or 60% of its 15.6 million kl quota, signaling stronger-than
Slide 47: EPA SRE: Political Tailwinds for Higher Reallocation
EPA SRE: Political Tailwinds for Higher Reallocation The pending EPA ruling on Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) is emerging as a key swing factor for soybean oil heading into final quarter. • U.S. EPA SRE: 2.18bn RINs at stake for 2023–25; full reallocation could safeguard up to 510m lbs of soybean
Slide 48: CFTC SBO - Managed Money Turned Short
CFTC SBO - Managed Money Turned Short Source: LSEG • Prices rallied mid-Aug on EPA’s SRE reallocation proposal but have since retreated from high of 56, erasing most gains. • Open interest expanded into the rally, then contracted as prices fell; signaling long liquidation. • CFTC reported that manag
Slide 49: FCPO 4Q2024 Price Forecast
FCPO 4Q2024 Price Forecast • Trading range: RM4269-4788 • Upside target of daily Elliott Wave impulse wave v : 61.8% of wave 3 at 4788, mirroring high of daily uptrend channel since May 2025 • Support: Low of corrective wave v at 4269, coincided with SMA200 4274 and Parabolic SAR 4288
Slide 50: Key Takeaways & Factors to Watch
Key Takeaways & Factors to Watch Supportive Drivers • Seasonally weaker production in Malaysia expected post-August peak, with yields tapering through Q4. • Indonesia’s biodiesel program (B40 to B45) adds fresh demand momentum: potential for 1.9m kl increase if fully rolled out (equivalent to 1.7m M
Slide 51: Thank You
Thank You Contact us: derivativesdealing@uobkayhian.com uobkhmyfutures@uobkayhian.com
Slide 52: Q&A
Q&A LSEG &natviics
Slide 53: Thank you
Thank you LSEG anatyrics