Slide 1: Q1 2024 Results Presentation
Q1 2024 Results Presentation May 8, 2024
Slide 2: Forward Looking Statements
Forward Looking Statements Forward Looking Statements Certain statements and other information included in this presentation, including under the sections "Financial Guidance" and "Market Outlook", constitute "forward-looking information" or "forward-looking statements" (collectively, "forward-looki
Slide 3: Forward Looking Statements (continued)
Forward Looking Statements Forward Looking Statements (continued) Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control and are difficult to predict, which could cause actual results or events to differ materially from results or events e
Slide 4: Financial Highlights
Financial Highlights “We continued to see strong crop input demand, a normalization of product margins for our North American Retail business and increased global potash shipments in the first quarter. Our results highlighted the capabilities of our flexible, low-cost production assets and downstrea
Slide 5: Strategic Focus
Strategic Focus “Our focus remains on strengthening our capability to serve growers and enhancing our core businesses to improve the quality of our earnings and free cash flow.” Ken Seitz, President and CEO Enhancing Retail margins and asset efficiency, including investing in high value proprietar
Slide 6: Retail Results – Q1 2024
Retail Results – Q1 2024 Gross Margin US$ Millions Higher Crop Nutrients • Higher gross margin per tonne • Higher sales volumes from a more typical start to spring in the US Higher Crop Protection Products • Higher compared to Q1’23 which was impacted by the sell through of higher cost inventory Adj
Slide 7: Potash Results – Q1 2024
Potash Results – Q1 2024 Lower net realized selling price Gross Margin • Decline in benchmark prices US$ Millions compared to the strong prices in Q1’23 Higher sales volumes • Higher in North America due to low channel inventory and more normal buying behaviors • Higher offshore driven by increased
Slide 8: Nitrogen Results – Q1 2024
Nitrogen Results – Q1 2024 Gross Margin Lower net realized selling prices US$ Millions • Weaker benchmark prices resulting from lower energy prices in key nitrogen producing regions Lower COGS • Lower natural gas costs Higher sales volumes • Higher urea and UAN production and strong fertilizer deman
Slide 9: Financial Guidance
Y Financial Guidance d > | Vd
Slide 10: Financial and Operational Guidance
Financial and Operational Guidance 2024 Guidance1 Ranges as of May 8, 2024 February 21, 2024 (billions of US dollars, except as otherwise noted) Low High Low High Retail adjusted EBITDA 1.65 1.85 1.65 1.85 Potash sales volumes (million tonnes)2 13.0 13.8 13.0 13.8 2 Nitrogen sales volumes (million t
Slide 11: Retail Adjusted EBITDA, Market Outlook and Assumptions
Retail Adjusted EBITDA, Market Outlook and Assumptions Retail Adjusted EBITDA Market Outlook and Assumptions US$ Billions $2.3 • Expect US corn plantings of approximately 90 million acres in 2024 and soybean plantings of approximately 87 million acres. $1.9 $1.85 • Soybean margins in Brazil are expe
Slide 12: Potash Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions
Potash Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions 2024 Potash Adjusted EBITDA Sensitivity1 Market Outlook and Assumptions US$ Billions 4.0 • Maintained our 2024 full-year global potash shipment forecast of 3.5 68 to 71Mmt. 3.0 • North American channel inventories were tight to start the year and we
Slide 13: Nitrogen Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions
Nitrogen Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions 2024 Nitrogen Adjusted EBITDA Sensitivity1, 2 Market Outlook and Assumptions US$ Billions 3.5 • Global nitrogen markets have fluctuated in 2024 driven by seasonal buying patterns, production outages and uncertainty over 3.0 Chinese urea export res
Slide 14: Phosphate Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions
Phosphate Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions 2024 Phosphate Adjusted EBITDA Sensitivity1 Market Outlook and Assumptions US$ Billions 0.8 • Phosphate fertilizer prices remained firm through the first quarter of 0.7 2024 due to strong demand in the Northern Hemisphere, supportive Indian DAP p
Slide 15: Disciplined approach to capital expenditures
Disciplined approach to capital expenditures Capital Expenditures US$ Billions $2.7B Investing Capital Priorities $2.2B - $2.3B • Retail: investment in high value proprietary products categories, network optimization and Investing digital capabilities Mine Development and pre-stripping • Potash: adv
Slide 16: Market Outlook
Market Outlook 16
Slide 17: Global crop yields have recently been below-trend levels
Global crop yields have recently been below-trend levels, in part due to the decline in fertilizer application Global Fertilizer Consumption and Crop Yields1 Million Nutrient Tonnes Tonnes/Hectare 200 N P2O5 K2O Global Yield Trend Yield 4.00 180 3.50 160 3.00 140 2.50 120 100 2.00 80 1.50 60 1.00 40
Slide 18: Global grain stocks-to-use ratios remain historically low
Global grain stocks-to-use ratios remain historically low going into the 2024 growing season Global Stocks/Use Ratios Percent 18% Corn 30% Wheat 25% Rice World excl. China World excl. China World excl. China 16% 25% 14% 20% 12% 20% 15% 10% 15% 8% 10% 6% 10% 4% 5% 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 2013 2015 2017 2019 2
Slide 19: Wide range of expectations for Brazilian crop production
Wide range of expectations for Brazilian crop production, which could impact global agriculture markets Brazil Soybean Production Brazil Corn Production Million tonnes Million tonnes 137 160 155 USDA Forecast1 124 USDA Forecast1 140 116 131 146 CONAB Forecast1 129 123 121 101 102 111 CONAB Forecast1
Slide 20: Global crop prices remain above 10-year averages
Global crop prices remain above 10-year averages Corn Avg. Realized Price1,2 Soybean Avg. Realized Price1,2 Wheat Avg. Realized Price1,2 US$/bushel US$/bushel US$/bushel $12.55 $7.10 $4.82 $12.01 $4.70 $4.27 $6.43 $10.69 $6.04 10-year Avg. 2023E 2024F 10-year Avg 2023E 2024F 10-year Avg. 2023E 2024F
Slide 21: Crop margins remain elevated relative to history while fertilizer costs have eased
Crop margins remain elevated relative to history while fertilizer costs have eased Key Crop Grower Cash Margins1,2 US Corn Cash Selling Price & Costs3,4 Local Currency Margin/Acre US$/bu US Corn US Soybeans US Wheat US Cotton CAN Canola BRZ Soybeans $7.00 500 4,000 $6.00 400 3,000 $5.00 300 $4.00 2,
Slide 22: Global fertilizer benchmarks are near 10-year averages
Global fertilizer benchmarks are near 10-year averages, and the recent stability of pricing has incented demand Selected Fertilizer Prices1 US$ per Unit Brazil Potash US Midwest Potash Tampa Ammonia NOLA Urea NOLA MAP 383 391 423 514 354 355 600 573 462 465 323 374 374 301 457 10-year 2023 2024 10-y
Slide 23: Global potash demand will continue to recover towards trend levels in 2024
We expect global potash demand will continue to recover towards trend levels in 2024 with shipments projected between 68 to 71 million tonnes Potash Demand Millions of Tonnes KCl 20 15 10 5 0 20 21 22 23 24F 20 21 22 23 24F 20 21 22 23 24F 20 21 22 23 24F 20 21 22 23 24F 20 21 22 23 24F India Other
Slide 24: Relatively balanced global potash market in 2024
We anticipate a relatively balanced global potash market in 2024 with incremental supply from producers in Canada, Russia, Belarus and Laos Potash Production in Selected Regions Millions of Tonnes KCl 25 2022 2023E 2024F 20 15 10 5 0 1 Canada Russia Belarus Europe Middle East China Other 24 1. Inclu
Slide 25: North American natural gas prices remain advantaged
North American natural gas prices remain advantaged compared to Europe and Asia, while key production and exports remain constrained 2024 Key Global Natural Gas Prices1 2024 Global Urea Production Cost Curve2 US$/MMBtu US$/tonne FOB $12 $450 Canada China Coal $400 $10 US Other $350 $8 $300 $250 $6 $
Slide 26: US nitrogen supply and demand balance tight through Q1-24
The US nitrogen supply and demand balance was tight through Q1-24, however urea supply is relatively balanced First 9-Months Fertilizer Year (Jul-Mar) US Nitrogen Trade Balance (imports less exports)1 Thousands of Short Tons Product 3,200 Ammonia UAN +3% 2,800 Urea Total Nitrogen -21% 2,400 2,000 1,
Slide 27: Expect lower Chinese fertilizer exports compared to historical average
Expect lower Chinese fertilizer exports compared to historical average China DAP/MAP Exports China Urea Exports Millions of Tonnes Millions of Tonnes 12 Annual Avg 2017-2021 (~9.2 Mmt) 6 Annual Avg 2017-2021 (~4.6 Mmt) 10 8 4 6 4 2 2 0 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024F 2017 2018 2019 2020
Slide 28: Thank You!
Thank You! For more information, please visit nutrien.com facebook.com/nutrienltd linkedin.com/company/nutrien youtube.com/nutrien @nutrienltd