Ignitis Grupe Ab · OMXVSE:IGN1L
Ignitis Grupe Ab — Investor Day (September 2024)
74 slides from Ignitis Grupe Ab's investor day presentation, Sep 13, 2024
Slide 1: Investor Day 2024
Investor Day 2024 13-14 September 2024
Slide 2: Legal notice
Investor Day 2024 Legal notice This document has been prepared by AB “Ignitis grupė” (Ignitis Group) solely for informational purposes and must not be relied upon, disclosed or published, or used in part for any other purpose. The document should not be treated as investment advice or provide basis
Slide 3: Agenda
Investor Day 2024 Agenda Day one: 13 September Day two: 14 September Management presentations Site visit 11:00–11:40 Strategy – energy in the long-term 09:00–12:00 Travel to Tauragė wind and solar power plant 11:40 –12:20 Financials – long-term potential 12:00–15:00 Tauragė wind and solar power plan
Slide 4: Artūras Ketlerius, Head of Corporate Communications
Investor Day 2024 Artūras Ketlerius Head of Corporate Communications of Ignitis Group 4 /74
Slide 5: Ask at slido.com
Investor Day 2024 Ask at slido.com #IgnitisGroup2024 5 /74
Slide 6: Ainė Riffel-Grinkevičienė, Head of Investor Relations
Investor Day 2024 Ainė Riffel−Grinkevičienė Chief of Staff to CFO and Head of Investor Relations of Ignitis Group 6 /74
Slide 7: Strategy – energy in the long-term
Investor Day 2024 Strategy – energy in the long-term Darius Maikštėnas CEO of Ignitis Group 7 /74
Slide 8: Ignitis Group
Investor Day 2024 Ignitis Group Renewables-focused integrated utility and the largest energy group in the Baltics – 4–5 GW of installed Green Capacities by 2030 – Net zero emissions by 2040–2050 – Focus on green generation and green flexibility technologies: onshore and offshore wind, batteries, pum
Slide 9: Purpose
Investor Day 2024 Purpose Our purpose is to create a 100% green and secure energy ecosystem for current and future generations We fulfil our purpose by leading the regional transition into a climate-neutral, secure and independent energy ecosystem and contributing to Europe’s decarbonisation by faci
Slide 10: Integrated business model
Investor Day 2024 Integrated business model We are utilising integrated business model to maximise potential Green Capacities Adjusted EBITDA 2023 Networks #1 in Lithuania1 Installed capacity: 1.4 GW Fully regulated country-wide #1 in the Baltics2 #2 in the Baltics1 Pipeline: 6.3 GW natural monopoly
Slide 11: Energy Ecosystem Vision for the Baltic Sea Region
Investor Day 2024 Energy Ecosystem Vision for the Baltic Sea Region Security Decarbonisation Export 11 /74
Slide 12: Part of a bigger plan
Investor Day 2024 Part of a bigger plan Pipelines Tankers Energy flows 12 /74
Slide 13: Part of a bigger plan
Investor Day 2024 Part of a bigger plan Nordics and the Baltic States will become substantial suppliers of both electricity and hydrogen for Central Europe and in particular – Germany Zone in structural oversupply H2 pipelines Zone in structural undersupply Electricity Non-modelled Grid Energy flows
Slide 14: Renewable potential
Investor Day 2024 Renewable potential Baltic states’ potential combined: 26 GW offshore wind 18 GW onshore wind 10 solar GW The full potential of the Baltic states ~7x could surpass their energy consumption by seven times 14 /74
Slide 15: Changes in the energy system
Investor Day 2024 Changes in the energy system Traditional energy system Dispatchable peaking Baseload Dispatchable Energy demandpeaking Energy demand 15 /74
Slide 16: Changes in the energy system
Investor Day 2024 Changes in the energy system Emerging renewables Baseload Dispatchable peaking Energy demand Energy RES generation 16 /74
Slide 17: Changes in the energy system
Investor Day 2024 Changes in the energy system Emerging renewables Baseload Dispatchable peaking Energy demand Energy RES generation 17 /74
Slide 18: Changes in the energy system
Investor Day 2024 Changes in the energy system Emerging renewables Baseload Dispatchable peaking Energy demand Energy RES generation 18 /74
Slide 19: Changes in the energy system
Investor Day 2024 Changes in the energy system Emerging renewables Baseload Dispatchable peaking Energy demand Energy RES generation 19 /74
Slide 20: Changes in the energy system
Investor Day 2024 Changes in the energy system Emerging renewables RES WITHOUT FLEXIBLE DEMAND EFFECTS: – Negative energy price periods – Early RES capacity saturation – No new RES investment & development – Need for flexible demand RES oversupply RES oversupply Dispatchable peaking Energy demand En
Slide 21: Changes in the energy system
Investor Day 2024 Changes in the energy system New energy model Short-term Long-term oversupply oversupply Flexible energy Industry demand usage Flexible energy demand H2 & eFuel Short- term flexible storage supply Demand covered by short-term Demand storage power covered by eFuels Dispatchable peak
Slide 22: The need for flexibility in the Baltics
Investor Day 2024 The need for flexibility in the Baltics Installed capacity by 2030, assumption (Baltics) 4.4 3.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 Onshore wind Offshore wind Solar Hydro Note: estimated total Baltics electricity consumption in 2030 – 35,5TWh. 22 /74
Slide 23: The need for flexibility in the Baltics
Investor Day 2024 The need for flexibility in the Baltics Installed capacity by 2030, assumption (Baltics) 3.6 1.3 1.5 1.4 P2X 0.5 0.5 Flexibility in capacities the Baltics x5 -10 BESS BESS Onshore wind Offshore wind BESS Kruonis Kruonis Kruonis PSHP PSHP 4.4 PSHP +expansion +expansion 2024 2026–202
Slide 24: P2X products
Investor Day 2024 P2X products Renewable energy Green H2 electrolysis 24 /74
Slide 25: P2X products
Investor Day 2024 P2X products e-Fuels Renewable energy Methanol Synthetic methane Green H2 Hydrogen electrolysis Ammonia H2 25 /74
Slide 26: Green hydrogen application efficiency
Investor Day 2024 Green hydrogen application efficiency Most effective Grey H2 replacement E-fuels Electricity production Least Other aplications effective 26 /74
Slide 27: Green hydrogen application efficiency
Investor Day 2024 Green hydrogen application efficiency Grey H2 Grey H2 replacement replacement 27 /74
Slide 28: Green hydrogen application efficiency
Investor Day 2024 Green hydrogen application efficiency Globally, 80 million tons of grey 3% hydrogen are being utilised Other 7% Methanol >99% 25% of hydrogen is Oil refining (and hydrocracking, produced in carbon 65% intensive manner hydrotreating) Ammonia production (and polymers & resins) Hydrog
Slide 29: Role of Elektrėnai Onshore Hub – 2030
Investor Day 2024 Role of Elektrėnai Onshore Hub – 2030 Existing unique infrastructure and location of Elektrėnai 2 GW Complex enables regional hydrogen production. electricity supply grid connection Latvia 3 GW Klaipėda electricity consumption grid Jonava / Achema connection Unused premises Kaunas
Slide 30: Role of Offshore Hub
Investor Day 2024 Role of Offshore Hub 26 GW 14 7 2.4 GW 5 1.4 0.5 0.5 Offshore potential without EI, Offshore potential without EI, GW GW Over 2.4 GW of installed offshore capacity, further investments in the Baltics will become less attractive / bankable due to curtailment. Hybrid solution – beyon
Slide 31: Green Energy Corridor
Investor Day 2024 Green Energy Corridor Expected timeline 2026 Expansion of Kruonis PSHP to 1 GW 2030+ First offshore wind parks in the Baltics +1 GW Onshore P2X Hub 2032+ Offshore Hub operational 2035+ +4 GW Offshore Hub P2X operational Offshore Hub-to-Bornholm H2 link established HUB 2038+ H2 link
Slide 32: Huge investment potential
Investor Day 2024 Huge investment potential OFFSHORE 26 GW ONSHORE 18 GW SOLAR 10 GW 10 GW SYNTHETIC FUEL HUB PSHP FULL Onshore Hub 150 bn INVESTMENT POTENTIAL 32 /74
Slide 33: Key takeaways
Investor Day 2024 Keytakeaways Key takeaways The need for Ignitis Group Highly visible energy unique position potential transformation 33 /74
Slide 34: Q&A
Investor Day 2024 Q&A: Ask at slido.com #IgnitisGroup2024 34 /74
Slide 35: Financials – long-term potential
Investor Day 2024 Financials – long-term potential Jonas Rimavičius CFO of Ignitis Group 35 /74
Slide 36: Before and after IPO
Investor Day 2024 Before and after IPO 1. Adjusted EBITDA, 2. Investments, 3. Green Capacities Portfolio, EURm EURm GW 2x 2.0 EURbn >5x 2020–2023 7.7 937.1 484,7 346.8 245.9 1.5 2020 2023 2020 2023 30 Sep 30 Jun 2020 2024 4. Equity, EURbn 5. Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA, 6. Share price, EUR Total asse
Slide 37: Growth across all segments, driven by Green Capacities
Investor Day 2024 Growth across all segments, driven by Green Capacities Green Capacities Networks +342% +11% 222.6 ~210 ~190 50.4 1 1 2020 2024 2020 2023 Customers & Solutions Reserve Capacities +14% +70% 49.9 26.7 30.4 29.3 2020 2023 2020 2023 1 Based on the numbers approved and published by the r
Slide 38: 2020–2023 Strategic Plan targets delivered
Investor Day 2024 2020–2023 Strategic Plan targets delivered Time 2023 KPIs Target period result Adjusted EBITDA 2023 315–350 EURm 485 EURm Investments 2020–2023 1.7–2.0 EURbn 2.0 EURbn Balance sheet strength: 2020–2023 < 5x 2.7x - Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA 2023 1.6–1.8 GW 1.3 GW Green Capacities i
Slide 39: 2024–2027 Strategic Plan targets progress
Investor Day 2024 2024–2027 Strategic Plan targets progress Time 2023 2024–2027 KPIs Target Status period result target Adjusted EBITDA 2023 315–350 EURm 485 EURm 550-650 EURm On track Investments 2020–2023 1.7–2.0 EURbn 2.0 EURbn 3.0–4.0 EURbn On track Balance sheet strength: 2020–2023 < 5x 2.7x <
Slide 40: Commitment to dividend growth
Investor Day 2024 Commitment to dividend growth Minimum annual dividends ≥104.8 ≥101.7 7.3–8.0% ≥98.8 EURm 93.1 ≥95.9 EURm 87.6 90.3 EURm EURm 85.0 EURm EURm EURm EURm implied dividend yield 2024–2027 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Minimum 1.14 1.19 1.24 1.29 ≥1.32 ≥1.36 ≥1.41 ≥1.45 DPS1, E
Slide 41: Share price potential – 60% upside
Investor Day 2024 Share price potential – 60% upside Research company Price target +60% potential EUR 33.0 30 EUR 31.3 18.6 EUR 31.1 EUR 24.0 EUR 24.0–37.0 6 Sep Average closing target EUR 23.5–32.8 price price 41 /74
Slide 42: Our equity story – attractive blend of growth and yield
Investor Day 2024 Our equity story – attractive blend of growth and yield Renewables-focused integrated utility, leading energy transition in the Baltics: – 1.4 GW operational. – 4–5 GW target of installed Green Capacities by 2030 (x4 vs. 2022). – >7 GW Green Capacities Portfolio (x5 vs. 2019). Inte
Slide 43: Q&A
Investor Day 2024 Q&A: Ask at slido.com #IgnitisGroup2024 43 /74
Slide 44: Break
Investor Day 2024 Break 12:20–13:00 44 /74
Slide 45: Agenda
Investor Day 2024 Agenda Day one: 13 September Day two: 14 September Management presentations Site visit 11:00–11:40 Strategy – energy in the long-term 09:00–12:00 Travel to Tauragė wind and solar power plant 11:40 –12:20 Financials – long-term potential 12:00–15:00 Tauragė wind and solar power plan
Slide 46: Green generation – updates on projects under construction
Investor Day 2024 Green generation – updates on projects under construction Gary Bills Chief Operating Officer at Ignitis Renewables 46 /74
Slide 47: Green Capacities targets
Investor Day 2024 Green Capacities targets We are on track to deliver the capacity increase Current Portfolio 7.7 Targets x4 GW Total Portfolio 4–5 GW1 x2 1.4 Installed GW 2.4–2.6 GW1 Capacity 3.1 1.3 GW GW Secured Capacity 2023 2027 2030 Operational Target Target 1 Gross installed capacity (include
Slide 48: Green Capacities Portfolio
Investor Day 2024 Green Capacities Portfolio We are building 1.0 GW with the largest projects in the Baltics; total Portfolio of 7.7 GW Portfolios split by geography 4.5 GW 1.0 Under GW Construction 1.8 GW 1.0 GW 0.4 GW 1 Portfolio (3 September 2024). 48 /74
Slide 49: Focus on: Kelmė WF in Lithuania
Investor Day 2024 Focus on: Kelmė WF in Lithuania The largest wind farm under construction in the Baltics Key milestones – on track FID made. WTG foundations. BoP roads, crane pads, and electrical works. 20/44 WTGs erected. First power to the grid expected in 300 44 250 k Q3 2024. MW turbines capaci
Slide 50: Focus on: Silesia WF II in Poland
Investor Day 2024 Focus on: Silesia WF II in Poland One of the largest wind clusters in Poland; secured the largest external 10-year corporate PPA with Umicore Key milestones – on track FID made. WTG foundations. BoP roads, crane pads, and electrical works. 38/38 WTGs erected. First power to the gri
Slide 51: Focus on: Latvian solar portfolio I in Latvia
Investor Day 2024 Focus on: Latvian solar portfolio I in Latvia The largest solar portfolio under construction in the Baltics; hybridisation potential Key milestones – on track FID made. Building permits received. PV modules and inverters purchased. 0/239 PV modules and inverters installed. First po
Slide 52: Focus on: Tume solar farm in Latvia
Investor Day 2024 Focus on: Tume solar farm in Latvia Our first solar farm developed from greenfield stage with advanced technology; hybridisation potential Key milestones – on track FID made. Building permits received. PV modules and inverters purchased. PV modules and inverters installed. First po
Slide 53: Q&A
Investor Day 2024 Q&A: Ask at slido.com #IgnitisGroup2024 53 /74
Slide 54: Green flexibility – update on Kruonis PSHP expansion
Investor Day 2024 Green flexibility – update on Kruonis PSHP expansion Asta Sungailienė CEO of Ignitis Gamyba 54 /74
Slide 55: Green flexibility: Kruonis PSHP expansion overview
Investor Day 2024 Green flexibility: Kruonis PSHP expansion overview Kruonis PSHP capacity increase from 0.9 GW to 1.0 GW by 2026 Kruonis PSHP is one of the largest energy storage facilities in Europe: Current capacity Expansion in 2026 Capabilities post-2026 900 MW +110 MW 1,010 MW Four operating u
Slide 56: The rationale of Kruonis PSHP expansion
Investor Day 2024 The rationale of Kruonis PSHP expansion 10 GWh Significant increase of system flexibility and enabled development of green capacities hydro flexibility capacity Energy demand Energy generation Kruonis PSPP flexible demand RES oversupply Kruonis PSHP new flexible 110 MW unit Min. 22
Slide 57: Project status: on track
Investor Day 2024 Project status: on track COD in 2026 Key milestones – on track Unit installation contract signed with VOITH Hydro1. Unit model testing implemented successfully. Geological investigation completed and site's suitability confirmed. Penstock and Powerhouse designs – ready for project
Slide 58: Q&A
Investor Day 2024 Q&A: Ask at slido.com #IgnitisGroup2024 58 /74
Slide 59: Networks – grid development update
Investor Day 2024 Networks – grid development update Renaldas Radvila CEO of Energijos skirstymo operatorius 59 /74
Slide 60: Networks overview
Investor Day 2024 Networks overview ESO is one of the 25 largest distribution system operators in the EU; it operates the largest network in the Baltics 130 467 km 9.7 TWh electricity network electricity distributed lines in 2023 +4.3% in 5 years +1.5% in 5 years 65 300 km² 64.1% 35.9% Our networks
Slide 61: Networks importance
Investor Day 2024 Networks importance Key enabler of Lithuania's energy transition # of households Network expansion driven by Thousands electrification +260 MW/y The growth of renewables 32.3 capacity. 20.7 Drivers of grid expansion 6.1 2.1 5.1 % 19.2 20.1 16.6 12.2 15.3 100% Overall electrificatio
Slide 62: Our input to energy transition
Investor Day 2024 Our input to energy transition Electricity network expansion and facilitation of the energy market New connections Network capacity expansion Smart meter rollout New Installed 0 >1.2 connection +231k +280k Renewables 1.1 GW ~ +2.2 GW smart meters connected to in 2020–2023 in 2024–2
Slide 63: Our input to energy transition
Investor Day 2024 Our input to energy transition Electricity network expansion and facilitation of the energy market Network expansion driven by electrification Network resilience and efficiency Network ranked 21st in EU, in terms SAIFI of the share of underground cable 1.08 ≤1.05 Drivers Undergroun
Slide 64: Focus on: management of storm 'Kristi'
Investor Day 2024 Focus on: management of storm ‘Kristi’ 2x more intense than other storms in the last 5 years # of people in managing the storm (change vs status quo) 700 (+6x) for operational troubleshooting (employees in brigades) 90 (+4x) for operational management: dispatchers/coordinators 140
Slide 65: Q&A
Investor Day 2024 Q&A: Ask at slido.com #IgnitisGroup2024 65 /74
Slide 66: Customers & Solutions – update on EV charging network
Investor Day 2024 Customers & Solutions – update on EV charging network Artūras Bortkevičius CEO of Ignitis 66 /74
Slide 67: Building a leading EV charging network in the Baltics
Investor Day 2024 Building a leading EV charging network in the Baltics A platform established to deliver targets Key milestones Established team across the Baltics. KPIs Jan 2023 Sep 2024 2026 target Agreements with Rimi, Maxima, Citro, Grossi, Hesburger. Employees 17 60 80 Multiple agreements with
Slide 68: Strategic priorities
Investor Day 2024 Strategic priorities Utilizing and expanding our customer portfolio to enable the Green Capacities build-out Focus on hubs Network Leveraging and high-power hybridization Ignitis Group charging resources Hubs and high-power charging points in Saving on grid connection, vehicle-to-g
Slide 69: Ignitis ON network
Investor Day 2024 Ignitis ON network Total of 759 EV charging points >2 000 charging points 759 charging points >1 000 699 >500 <500 60 0 Lithuania Latvia Estonia Lithuania Latvia Estonia # of charging points Expected # of charging current points in 2028 Charging points in operation Planned charging
Slide 70: Ignitis ON platform
Investor Day 2024 Ignitis ON platform 28k private and 1k business users Total users # Substantial increase 29,531 21,106 13,525 8,356 4,652 2,337 643 Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Aug 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 70 /74
Slide 71: Q&A
Investor Day 2024 Q&A: Ask at slido.com #IgnitisGroup2024 71 /74
Slide 72: Glossary
Investor Day 2024 Glossary Commercial operation date Projects with installed capacity achieved. Installed Capacity The date at which all the equipment is: (1) installed, (2) connected, (3) authorized by a competent authority to generate energy, and (4) commissioned. Performance testing may still be
Slide 73: Abbreviations
Investor Day 2024 Abbreviations B2B Business to business GW Gigawatt B2C Business to consumer GWh Gigawatt-hour BESS Battery Energy Storage System H2 Hydrogen BoP Balance of Plants m Million DC Direct Current MW Megawatt DPS Dividend Per Share PPA Power Purchase Agreement EBITDA Earnings before inte
Slide 74: More about Ignitis Group
More about Contacts Ignitis Group Reports & presentations IR@ignitis.lt Sustainability Strategy 74 /74