Cf Industries Holdings, Inc. · NYSE:CF
Cf Industries — Q3 2024 Earnings Presentation
19 slides from Cf Industries's earnings presentation, Oct 31, 2024
Slide 1: 2024 Third Quarter Financial Results
2024 Third Quarter Financial Results October 30, 2024 NYSE: CF
Slide 2: Safe harbor statement
Safe harbor statement All statements in this presentation by CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, the “Company”), other than those relating to historical facts, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements can generally be identified by their use of terms such
Slide 3: Note regarding non-GAAP financial measures
Note regarding non-GAAP financial measures The Company reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). Management believes that EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, and free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion, which are non-GAAP financi
Slide 4: Industry leading operational excellence drives cash generation
Industry leading operational excellence drives cash generation $276M $511M $2.3B $1.7B Q3 2024 Q3 2024 LTM Cash from LTM Capital Returned to Net Earnings Adjusted EBITDA(1) Operations Shareholders (2) $890M $1.7B $1.5B $1.4B 9M 2024 9M 2024 LTM FCF(3) Remaining in Current $3B Net Earnings Adjusted E
Slide 5: First nine months and third quarter 2024 adjusted EBITDA
First nine months and third quarter 2024 adjusted EBITDA 9M 2024 vs 9M 2023 Adjusted EBITDA(1) Q3 2024 vs Q3 2023 Adjusted EBITDA(1) $ millions $ millions $2,168 $40 $511 $390 $1,722 $52 $445 $(13) $(40) $(13) $(680) $(116) Adj. EBITDA Realized Adj. EBITDA Adj. EBITDA Realized Adj. EBITDA 9M 2023 Pr
Slide 6: Strong cash generation with significant return to shareholders
Strong cash generation with significant return to shareholders Q3 2024 Cash Sources and Uses 9M 2024 Cash Sources and Uses $ millions $ millions $1,851 $(321) $(308) $(1,412) $931 $(139) $(164) $(580) $1,819 $10 $1,877 $2,032 $35 $1,877 Cash(1) Cash from CHS Return to Cash(1) Cash(1) Cash from CHS R
Slide 7: Pathways to grow shareholder value
Pathways to grow shareholder value Disciplined Invest in high Low-carbon ammonia Margin enhancing growth initiatives return projects production growth projects & clean energy within our network Share repurchases Return capital Inorganic growth Evaluate accretive and quarterly dividends to shareholde
Slide 8: Creating value by increasing nitrogen participation per share
Creating value by increasing nitrogen participation per share Intend to repurchase remaining $1.4B of authorization by December 2025 expiration Annual Nitrogen Equivalent Tons per 1,000 Shares Outstanding Since 2010: Increased production capacity 36% Decreased share count 51% 47 39 30 17 2010 2015 2
Slide 9: Highlights: Strategic Initiatives
Highlights: Strategic Initiatives Donaldsonville Dehydration & Compression Unit On track to complete construction in 2025 Capture up to 2M metric tons of CO2 per year Partnered with ExxonMobil for sequestration 45Q tax credit generation expected in 2025 ~$100M projected in FCF annually for 12 years
Slide 10: Positive global nitrogen supply-demand dynamics
Positive global nitrogen supply-demand dynamics Nitrogen Market Outlook Chinese exports expected <1MMT Near-term global nitrogen India and Brazil remain significant importers market remains constructive North American producer inventories low Russian exports remain below pre-war levels L
Slide 11: 2025 global delivered U.S. Gulf urea cost curve suggests elevated pricing
2025 global delivered U.S. Gulf urea cost curve suggests elevated pricing on high European costs 2025 Monthly Delivered U.S. Gulf Urea Cost Curve Y-axis: USD/st X-axis: Monthly Production Capacity at 95% Operating Rate, 85% Operating Rate in China, million short tons 2025F Shipments: 18.0M Tons Avg.
Slide 12: Appendix
Appendix
Slide 13: Advancing decarbonization through significant progress on strategic initiatives
Advancing decarbonization through significant progress on strategic initiatives PROJECTS Purchased natural Purchased 2.2 BCF Purchased 4.4 BCF gas certified by MiQ Integration continues Donaldsonville green ammonia Engineering 2025 project activities start-up Donaldsonville CCS low-carbon ammonia De
Slide 14: CF Industries Adjusted EBITDA sensitivity table
CF Industries Adjusted EBITDA sensitivity table Table illustrates the CF Industries business model across a broad range of industry conditions Adjusted EBITDA Sensitivity to Natural Gas and Urea Prices(1) $ billions CF Realized Natural Gas Cost ($/MMBtu) $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 $5.00 $1.
Slide 15: 2025 cost curve assumptions
2025 cost curve assumptions Annual Average Energy Cost Location Source 2024E(1) Current(2) 2025F(3) Gas Prices ($/MMBtu) Henry Hub NYMEX 2.96 2.30 3.23 TTF ICE 10.35 12.75 12.60 NBP ICE 10.06 12.74 12.87 JKM ICE 11.66 13.47 13.35 Oil ($/Bbl) Brent Crude NYMEX 78 79 77 China Coal ($/tonne) Thermal 10
Slide 16: Financial results – third quarter and first nine months 2024
Financial results – third quarter and first nine months 2024 In millions, except percentages, per MMBtu and EPS Q3 2024 Q3 2023 9M 2024 9M 2023 Net sales $ 1,370 $ 1,273 $ 4,412 $ 5,060 Gross margin 444 377 1,532 2,044 - As a percentage of net sales 32.4 % 29.6 % 34.7 % 40.4 % Net earnings attributa
Slide 17: Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA
Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA In millions Q3 2024 Q3 2023 9M 2024 9M 2023 Net earnings $ 341 $ 230 $ 1,085 $ 1,486 Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interest (65) (66) (195) (235) Net earnings attributable to common stockholders 276 164 890 1,
Slide 18: Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA, continued
Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA, continued In millions Q3 2024 LTM Net earnings $ 1,437 Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interest (273) Net earnings attributable to common stockholders 1,164 Interest expense (income)—net (24) Income tax provisi
Slide 19: Non-GAAP: reconciliation of cash from operations to free cash flow
Non-GAAP: reconciliation of cash from operations to free cash flow and free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion In millions, except percentages Q3 2024 LTM Cash provided by operating activities $ 2,331 Capital expenditures (509) Distributions to noncontrolling interest (308) Free cash flow $ 1,5
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