Dollar Tree, Inc. · NASDAQ:DLTR

Dollar Tree — Q3 2024 Earnings Presentation

21 slides from Dollar Tree's earnings presentation, Dec 4, 2024

  1. Slide 1: Supplemental Financial Presentation 3rd Quarter 2024

    Supplemental Financial Presentation 3rd Quarter 2024

  2. Slide 2: Forward-looking Statements

    Forward-looking Statements This Supplemental Financial Presentation contains “forward-looking statements,” as that term is used in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, concerning our business and outlook, including our expected sales, comparable store sales, new store openings, depr

  3. Slide 3: Key Takeaways Third Quarter 2024

    KEY TAKEAWAYS Third Quarter 2024  Adjusted diluted EPS of $1.12  Comp Growth o 1.8% Enterprise || 1.8% Dollar Tree || 1.9% Family Dollar o Driven by traffic gains in both segments and modest average ticket growth in Dollar Tree segment o Dollar Tree 1st positive ticket since Q4 2022, Family Dollar

  4. Slide 4: Comparable Store Sales Composition

    Comparable Store Sales Composition Traffic, Average Ticket, Consumables, and Discretionary1 FISCAL 2023 FISCAL 2024 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 YTD Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 YTD TOTAL 3.4% 7.8% 5.4% 6.3% 5.8% 1.7% 1.3% 1.8% - 1.6% Customer Traffic 5.5% 9.6% 7.0% 7.1% 7.4% 2.8% 1.4% 1.5% - 1.9% Average Ticket (2.1%) (1.6%) (1.5%)

  5. Slide 5: Dollar Tree Consumables vs. Discretionary Mix Shift

    Dollar Tree Consumables vs. Discretionary Mix Shift Over Time Quarterly Results Annual Results YOY Consumables Mix Shift +180 +170 +220 +210 +220 +210 +150 -90 -280 -20 +190 +190 bps bps bps bps bps bps bps bps bps bps bps bps 48.0% 48.5% 48.4% 44.6% 49.9% 48.3% 45.5% 45.3% 47.2% 50.2% 50.6% 49.2% 5

  6. Slide 6: Family Dollar Consumables vs. Discretionary Mix Shift

    Family Dollar Consumables vs. Discretionary Mix Shift Over Time Quarterly Results Annual Results YOY Consumables Mix Shift +200 +230 +290 +290 +70 +60 -10 -100 -20 +140 +260 +40 bps bps bps bps bps bps bps bps bps bps bps bps 80.1% 79.6% 82.0% 79.5% 80.8% 80.2% 81.9% 77.5% 76.5% 76.3% 77.7% 80.3% 80

  7. Slide 7: Dollar Tree Consumables Market Share

    Dollar Tree Consumables Market Share % Change vs. Last Year Market DT 12.1% 8.7% 9.2% 9.4% 7.2% 7.9% 7.5% 4.8% 3.5% 2.7% $ Sales 2.2% 1.3% 2.2% 1.1% Volume 8.4% 8.0% 6.4% 4.7% 3.6% 3.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% Unit Volume -0.5% -1.5% -2.8% -3.0% -2.5% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY 2023 FY 2024 Source: Nielsen M

  8. Slide 8: Family Dollar Consumables Market Share

    Family Dollar Consumables Market Share % Change vs. Last Year Market FD 11.4% 10.7% 8.9% 7.5% $ Sales Volume 4.8% 3.9% 3.8% 2.5% 2.1% 2.0% 2.7% 2.4% 2.0% 1.2% 2.7% 1.5% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.5% Unit Volume -0.8% -1.8% -2.1% -2.6% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY 2023 FY 2024 Source: Nielsen

  9. Slide 9: Sales per Square Foot by Business Segment

    Sales per Square Foot by Business Segment $234 $220 $200 $201 $203 $235 $235 $234 $233 $227 $225 FY 19 FY 20 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 $221 $225 Dollar Tree $220 $227 $223 $216 $220 $218 $218 $212 $216 $210 $214 $214 $214 $220 $212 $211 $191 $210 $209 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 F

  10. Slide 10: Operating Margin (GAAP) - Dollar Tree

    Operating Margin (GAAP) Year-Over-Year Basis Point Change FY 2024 Q3 Trend Drivers Q1 Q2 Q3 Prior Year - GAAP 13.6% 10.3% 12.1% ↑ Lower freight costs ↓ Increased markdowns Cost of sales 10 80 60 ↓ Higher distribution costs ↓ Increased sales of higher cost consumables merchandise ↓ Increased occupanc

  11. Slide 11: Operating Margin (Non-GAAP) - Dollar Tree

    Operating Margin (NON-GAAP) Year-Over-Year Basis Point Change FY 2024 Q3 Trend Drivers Q1 Q2 Q3 Prior Year - Non-GAAP 13.6% 10.3% 12.1% ↑ Lower freight costs ↓ Increased markdowns Cost of sales 10 80 60 ↓ Higher distribution costs ↓ Increased sales of higher cost consumables merchandise ↓ Increased

  12. Slide 12: Operating Margin (GAAP) - Family Dollar

    Operating Margin (GAAP) Year-Over-Year Basis Point Change FY 2024 Q3 Trend Drivers Q1 Q2 Q3 Prior Year - GAAP 0.3% 0.3% (2.0%) ↑ Lower freight costs ↑ Lower markdown costs due to OTC recall in prior year ↑ Higher promotional allowances Cost of sales 40 50 130 ↑ Improved shrink ↑ Lower occupancy cost

  13. Slide 13: Operating Margin (Non-GAAP) - Family Dollar

    Operating Margin (NON-GAAP) Year-Over-Year Basis Point Change FY 2024 Q3 Trend Drivers Q1 Q2 Q3 Prior Year - Non-GAAP 1.2% 0.3% (2.0%) ↑ Lower freight costs ↑ Lower markdown costs due to OTC recall in prior year ↑ Higher promotional allowances Cost of sales 40 50 130 ↑ Improved shrink ↑ Lower occupa

  14. Slide 14: Fiscal 2024 New Store Openings

    Fiscal 2024 New Store Openings Pivot to Dollar Tree 255 250 6 197 200 157 155 150 90 41 28 118 249 107 100 Year-to-Date 70 2023 2024 75 127 116 107 235 75 50 187 492 48 32 422 567 0 0 0 2023 2024 2023 2024 2023 2024 2023 2024 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Dollar Tree Family Dollar 14

  15. Slide 15: Projected 2024 Import Volume by Type of Contract

    Projected 2024 Import Volume by Type of Contract One-Year Contracts These annual contracts are typically negotiated in March and April and Spot go into effect at the beginning of May and run through April of the Rates following year. As such, ocean freight costs in any given fiscal year 5% under the

  16. Slide 16: Updated Outlook: Fourth Quarter and Full-Year Fiscal 2024

    Updated Outlook Fourth Quarter and Full-Year Fiscal 2024 Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year Sales - Enterprise $8.1B - $8.3B $30.7B - $30.9B Comparable Sales - Dollar Tree LSD LSD Comparable Sales - Family Dollar LSD LSD Comparable Sales - Enterprise LSD LSD New Store Openings - 600-650 Depreciation - ~$1.0

  17. Slide 17: Outlook Details

    Outlook Details Full-Year Fiscal 2024 Underlying Factors Impacting FY 2024 Outlook  Fiscal Year 2024 is a 52-week year and ends February 1, 2025  Gross Margins • Expect full-year gross margin of approximately 36.0% in the Dollar Tree segment • Expect full-year gross margin of approximately 25.0% i

  18. Slide 18: Appendix: Non-GAAP Financial Measures

    Appendix: Non-GAAP Financial Measures From time-to-time, the Company discloses certain financial measures not derived in accordance with GAAP. These non-GAAP financial measures should not be used as a substitute for GAAP financial measures, or considered in isolation, for the purposes of analyzing o

  19. Slide 19: Appendix: Non-GAAP Financial Measures

    Appendix: Non-GAAP Financial Measures Reconciliations of projected adjusted diluted EPS and selling, general and administrative expense rate, which are forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures, to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures, are not provided because the company is unable

  20. Slide 20: Appendix: Reconciliation of Adjusted Operating Income

    Appendix: Non-GAAP Financial Measures Reconciliation of Adjusted Operating Income - Dollar Tree Segment 13 Weeks Ended 39 Weeks Ended November 2, 2024 October 28, 2023 November 2, 2024 October 28, 2023 Operating income (GAAP) $ 465.2 10.7% $ 482.7 12.1% $ 1,329.5 10.6% $ 1,416.2 12.0% SG&A adjustmen

  21. Slide 21: Appendix: Reconciliation of Adjusted Diluted Earnings Per Share

    Appendix: Non-GAAP Financial Measures Reconciliation of Adjusted Diluted Earnings Per Share 13 Weeks Ended 39 Weeks Ended November 2, October 28, November 2, October 28, 2024 2023 2024 2023 Diluted net income per share (GAAP) $ 1.08 $ 0.97 $ 3.08 $ 3.23 SG&A adjustments: Add: Store Closure Costs 0.0

Dollar Tree — Q3 2024 Earnings Presentation on 6ix