Slide 1: European Hotel Performance Update
European Hotel Performance Update Q3 Pandox Earnings Call 24th October 2024 Thomas Emanuel | Senior Director All information is provided “as is” and only as of the date referenced and may change. While the information is believed to be accurate, neither CoStar Group nor STR guarantees that it is fre
Slide 2: Demand keeps growing
Demand keeps growing Global demand YoY % chg., Jan 2023 – September 2024 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Source: STR. © 2024 CoStar Group 2
Slide 3: Occupancy (slowly) growing
Occupancy (slowly) growing Occupancy, YTD September 2024 and % change to 2023 Europe North America Mainland China 70% 156 64% 158 143 1% 65% 69 151 0% -2% 57 Middle East Northern Africa Central America Asia (excl. Mainland China) 67% 165 67% 126 59% 121 63% 156 163 2% 101 3% -2% 89 159 3% Australia
Slide 4: Which means ADR is still rising, too
Which means ADR is still rising, too ADR, USD & CC, YTD September 2024 and % change to 2023 Europe North America Mainland China 164 156 162 158 143 5% 58 69 151 2% -4% 57 Middle East Northern Africa Central America Asia (excl. Mainland China) 164 165 126 126 146 121 173 156 163 3% 101 9% 25% 89 159
Slide 5: However, Europe remains in positive territory (just)
However, Europe remains in positive territory (just)….. Europe demand YoY % chg., Jan 2023 – September 2024 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: STR. © 2024 CoStar Group 5
Slide 6: ADR the consistent driver of European growth in 2024
ADR the consistent driver of European growth in 2024 Europe, EUR & CC, KPI % change YoY, Jan 2024 – Sep 2024 Occupancy % Chg. ADR % Chg. RevPAR % Chg. 10% 9% 8% 8% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 3% 2% 0% -2% Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Source: STR. © 2024 CoStar Group 6
Slide 7: No surprises that occupancy growth is 'sluggish' in comparison to ADR
No surprises that occupancy growth is ‘sluggish’ in comparison to ADR Europe, Supply, % change YoY, Full Year 2018 – 2019 & 2023 and September YTD 2024 2018 2019 2023 2024 YTD 3% 2% 1% 0% Luxury Class Upper Upscale Class Upscale Class Upper Midscale Class Midscale Class Economy Class Source: STR. ©
Slide 8: Growth moderately balanced by hotel class
Growth moderately balanced by hotel class Europe, EUR & CC, KPI % change YoY, September YTD 2024 Occ % chg. ADR % chg. RevPAR % chg. 10% 8% 7,9% 6% 6,0% 6,1% 5,6% 4% 4,3% 2% 1,5% 0% -2% Luxury Class Upper Upscale Class Upscale Class Upper Midscale Class Midscale Class Economy Class Source: STR. © 20
Slide 9: Weekdays are the primary driver in growth across all classes, except economy
Weekdays are the primary driver in growth across all classes, except economy Europe*, Occ % change YoY, September YTD 2024 Luxury Class Upper Upscale Class Upscale Class Upper Midscale Class Midscale Class Economy Class 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% Shoulder Weekday Weekend * Excl. Turkey Source: STR. © 202
Slide 10: ADR growth weakest at the lower end, 'squeezed middle' doing well
ADR growth weakest at the lower end, ‘squeezed middle’ doing well Europe*, ADR (EUR, CC) % change YoY, September YTD 2024 Luxury Class Upper Upscale Class Upscale Class Upper Midscale Class Midscale Class Economy Class 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Shoulder Weekday Weekend * Excl. Turkey Source: STR. ©
Slide 11: There is one remaining piece of the puzzle left
There is one remaining piece of the puzzle left….. Europe, Luxury & Upper Upscale classes, occupancy % chg. to 2019 Transient Occ Group Occ 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Source: STR. © 2024 CoStar Group 11
Slide 12: Return to 2019 occupancies led by UK&I and Southern Europe
Return to 2019 occupancies led by UK&I and Southern Europe Occupancy, indexed to 2019, R12 September 2024 UK & I Southern Europe Rest of Europe 101 100 99 99 98 97 96 96 94 93 93 93 92 Ireland United Italy Spain Greece Portugal Switzerland France Nordics Belgium Benelux Germany CEE Kingdom YoY % Chg
Slide 13: ADR recovery showcases a north south divide
ADR recovery showcases a north south divide ADR, indexed to 2019, R12 September 2024 Southern Europe Rest of Europe 153 150 149 138 136 132 128 128 124 123 121 118 117 Greece Italy France Spain Portugal Ireland United CEE Benelux Belgium Nordics Germany Switzerland Kingdom YoY % Chg. 13% 5% 7% 11% 8
Slide 14: Growth has started to wane in some major markets
Growth has started to wane in some major markets… European markets, Occ, YoY % change, September YTD 2024 +5 Helsinki +4 Tallinn +7 Riga Edinburgh +2 Copenhagen +4 +7 Vilnius Dublin -1 Amsterdam +0 +1 Berlin +2 Warsaw London +1 +1 Brussels Prague +6 +24 Kiev Paris -3 Vienna +2 Zurich +2 Budapest +2
Slide 15: Mostly in areas where rate growth remains on the high side
… Mostly in areas where rate growth remains on the high side European markets, ADR (LC), YoY % change, September YTD 2024 +0 Helsinki -1 Tallinn -7 Riga Edinburgh +11 Copenhagen -0 -3 Vilnius Dublin -3 Amsterdam -3 +8 Berlin +1 Warsaw London -0 +0 Brussels +10 Prague +3 Kiev Paris +6 Vienna +5 Zuric
Slide 16: Occupancy tracking above 2023, though 2019 results not quite achieved
Occupancy tracking above 2023, though 2019 results not quite achieved Germany R7 occupancy, 2019, 2023 & 2024 2019 2023 2024 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: STR. © 2024 CoStar Group 16
Slide 17: YoY performance steady with boost from the Euros and the summer so far
YoY performance steady with boost from the Euros and the summer so far Germany R7 ADR (EUR), 2019, 2023 & 2024 2019 2023 2024 € 190 € 170 € 150 € 130 € 110 € 90 € 70 € 50 € 30 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: STR. © 2024 CoStar Group 17
Slide 18: A very solid year of growth across Germany, with ADR the main driver
A very solid year of growth across Germany, with ADR the main driver Germany, KPI % change YoY, September YTD 2024 Occupancy ADR RevPAR 10% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Luxury Class Upper Upscale Class Upscale Class Upper Midscale Class Midscale Class Economy Class *Excluding Turk
Slide 19: In terms of ADR growth, YTD, it is all about the Euros
In terms of ADR growth, YTD, it is all about the Euros Germany, KPI % change YoY, October 2023 – September 2024 Occupancy % Chg. ADR % Chg. RevPAR % Chg. 20% 18% 16% 16% 15% 13% 10% 11% 9% 7% 5% 5% 3% 2% 0% -2% -5% -5% -10% Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24
Slide 20: Positive occupancy growth for key markets
Positive occupancy growth for key markets….. Occupancy, % change YoY, September YTD 2024 Baltic Coast 0 Hamburg +1 +1 Berlin Dusseldorf +2 +3 Leipzig +1 Dresden Cologne +2 Frankfurt +6 +3 Nuremburg Mannheim -6 Stuttgart +8 Munich +5 Source: STR. © 2024 CoStar Group 20
Slide 21: With all cities registering ADR growth, led by Munich & Stuttgart
.....with all cities registering ADR growth, led by Munich & Stuttgart ADR, % change YoY, September YTD 2024 Baltic Coast +4 Hamburg +5 +8 Berlin Dusseldorf +1 +10 Leipzig +6 Dresden Cologne +5 Frankfurt +7 +9 Nuremburg Mannheim +2 Stuttgart +12 Munich +8 Source: STR. © 2024 CoStar Group 21
Slide 22: Steady but unspectacular growth from 2025 in Europe
Steady but unspectacular growth from 2025 in Europe European markets*, KPI YoY % change, 2024-2028 as of August 2024 Occ ADR (EUR) RevPAR (EUR) 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 *Aggregated performance of Amsterdam,Barcelona,Belfast,Berlin,Birmingham,Brussels,Budapest,Cologne,Dublin, Dus
Slide 23: German cities scattered when looking at this year's forecast
German cities scattered when looking at this year's forecast Forecast Markets, Occupancy and ADR % Chg., 2024 Forecast Occ ADR 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Source: STR. © 2024 CoStar Group 23
Slide 24: Thank you!
Thank you! Thomas Emanuel temanuel@str.com Source: 2023 STR, LLC / STR Global, Ltd. trading as "STR". © CoStar Group. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically cre