T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. · NASDAQ:TROW
T. Rowe Price — Annual US Equities Conference (2026)
37 slides from T. Rowe Price's conference presentation, 2026
Slide 1: Outlook for US Equities
Annual US Equities Conference Outlook for US Equities FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY. NOT FOR FURTHER DISTRIBUTION.
Slide 2: Josh Nelson, Head of Global Equity
Josh Nelson Head of Global Equity T. R O W E P R I C E 2
Slide 3: Agenda
Agenda 1 ▪ OBBBA Impacts Looking Back ▪ Inflation ▪ Market Opportunities 2 ▪ Company Fundamentals Market Structure & ▪ Themes Observations ▪ Performance Drivers 3 ▪ Value Opportunities in a Broadening ▪ Small & Mid Caps Market ▪ Geopolitical Considerations T. R O W E P R I C E 3
Slide 4: Looking back a year…
Looking back a year… What we thought could happen… What did happen… GDP growth remained strong in 2025 but slowed to end the year. Trump & OBBBA Ongoing tariff volatility with future fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s tariffs in Feb 2026
Slide 5: Market Structure & Observations
Market Structure & Observations
Slide 6: Company fundamentals: Market concentration
Company fundamentals: Market concentration 1 January1995 to 31 December 2025 Alpha impact of not owning the top five contributors to Russell 1000 Index annual returns 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% 2003 2016 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Slide 7: Thematic baskets: cumulative excess return
Vehicles: Thematic ETFs 05 November 2024–31 December 2025 Select thematic baskets—Cumulative excess returns since election (SMID universe) 400% Cryptocurrency 900% 350% AI data centers 800% Cumulative Excess Return - Quantum Computing Only Excluding Quantum Computing AI hardware 700% 300% Cumulative
Slide 8: YoY Earnings Growth
Earnings is converging across market cap 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2026 Earnings Growth Convergence 60% Russell 2500 Index S&P 500 ex Mag 7 Mag 7 50% YoY Earnings Growth 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26E 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E Past performance i
Slide 9: US Equity Volume (%)
Participants: Retail & Quant Trading 31 December 2009–31 December 2025 US Equity Volume % 60 50 40 US Equity Volume (%) Retail now 30 accounts for 36% of equity volumes 20 excluding market makers and HFT’s, 10 up from just 20% in 2010. 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20
Slide 10: Factor returns in 2025 vs 2026
Factor returns in 2025 vs 2026 Rotation and growth weakness to start 2026 As of 31 March 2026 2025 2026 YTD Russell 1000 Index 20% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% 0% -5% -10% -5% -15% -10% -20% -15% Total Risk Momentum Size Growth Profitability Valuation Quality Total Momentum Valuation Size Quality Ri
Slide 11: Summary
Summary ▪ As market structure changes, investor best practices may need to evolve (although some may be cyclical) ▪ More complicated landscape, but with increased alpha potential ▪ Framework for manager evaluation Category Market Structure Change Potential Implications for Portfolio Managers (PM’s)
Slide 12: Opportunities For Broadening Markets
Opportunities For Broadening Markets
Slide 13: Top 10 Stocks % in S&P 500
We have reached unprecedented concentration levels December 1965 through March 31, 2026 S&P 500 Historical Concentration Levels and Cumulative Performance Post Peak Concentration 40% Peak to Average Dec. 1965 – Mar. 1981 Top 10 107% 35% Rest of Index 190% Peak to Average Historically, when Spread -8
Slide 14: Capex & Cash Flow of Top Mega-Cap Tech Companies
Capex & Cash Flow of Top Mega-Cap Tech Companies As of 28 February 2026 Capex spending by the top mega-cap technology Hyperscalers have seen free cash flow projections flatten companies continues to be a key economic driver with out as capex spending sharply rises with returns on capex increased spe
Slide 15: Growth Valuation Premium to Value
A Decade Ago, Growth Had Better Valuation Support Growth Premium to Value Percentiles of Growth Premium to Value Relative Forward Price-to-Earnings Ratio of Russell 1000 Growth Index Divided by Russell 1000 Value Index Forward Price-to-Earnings Ratio (weighted average) of Russell 1000 Growth Index d
Slide 16: Valuations in SMID remain attractive
Valuations in SMID remain attractive As of 31 March 2026 Large-Cap Valuations remain elevated SMID Valuations have come down post- relative to history COVID S&P 500 26x 24x S&P Mid Cap 400 24x S&P Small Cap 600 22x 22x 19.7 12M Forward P/E Multiple 20x NTM P/E Ratio 20x 18x 18x 16.3 16.2 15.7 16x 16
Slide 17: Why “beyond the first derivative” matters
Why “beyond the first derivative” matters As of 28 January 2026 AI winners broaden as spending moves from chips to systems, networks, and deployment First derivative (obvious) — where the market started Second derivative (where SMID can matter) ▪ GPUs / accelerators ▪ Networking: switches, routers,
Slide 18: Buildout of AI and increasing geopolitical risk drive demand for old world industries
Buildout of AI and increasing geopolitical risk drive demand for old world industries ▪ The Iran conflict poses significant energy market risk, with the Strait of Hormuz representing the most critical chokepoint for global oil supply. Oil flowing through the Strait: − Origin country %: Saudi Arabia
Slide 19: The active advantage in uncertain markets
The active advantage in uncertain markets As of 31 March 2026 T. Rowe Price composites have historically delivered across styles and market caps. Core Excess return % vs S&P 500 Growth Excess return % vs Russell 1000 Growth YTD 1-Yr 3-Yr 5-Yr 10-Yr YTD 1-Yr 3-Yr 5-Yr 10-Yr Exc Rtn M* % Exc Rtn M* %
Slide 20: Appendix
Appendix
Slide 21: Vehicles: Passive investing
Vehicles: Passive investing (December 31, 2006–December 31, 2025) Cumulative Equity Fund Flows $6,000 +$5,500B $5,000 $4,000 Billions USD $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 Passive Equity $0 Active Equity -$1,000 -$2,000 -$3,000 -$3,617B -$4,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201
Slide 22: Retail’s impact is growing
Retail’s impact is growing As of 30 September 2025 Percentage of US Trading Volume Retail (left (LHS) hand side) Long Only & Hedge Fund (right (RHS)hand side) 30 28 28 26 23 24 22 20 18 18 16 13 14 12 8 10 Q1 10 Q1 13 Q1 16 Q1 19 Q1 22 Q1 25 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Jefferies. T. R O W E P R
Slide 23: Firms with the highest capex to sales have tended to underperform
Firms with the highest capex to sales have tended to underperform January 1, 1995 to December 31, 2025 Historical returns for capex to sales quintiles in the Russell 1000 Index Equal-weighted 12-month relative returns 1.4% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% -2.7% Quintile 5 Quintile 4 Quintile 3 Quintile 2 Quintile 1 (
Slide 24: Please share your feedback
Please share your feedback For every survey completed, £10 will go to One for the World Charity Enter passcode USEQUITY26 Scan QR code Enter your email address Complete surveys T. R O W E P R I C E 24
Slide 25: GIPS Composite Report: US All-Cap Opportunities Equity
GlPS" Composite Report Us All-Cap Opportunities Equity Composite Period Ended Decomber 31, 2005 ‘Figures shown in U5. dollar 206 2 pats pry 20 poy mz mamta ‘arose annus Returns (8) 221 56 207 aso 4879s) 20e5 sodas Net Annual Returns (5)? 110 33 os7 38600 425208922876 2877S ‘bench (4)? 708 ya ast a9
Slide 26: GIPS Composite Report: US Impact Equity
GIPS” Composite Report US Impact Equity Composite Period Ended December 32, 2025 Figures shown in US. dollar 2? 2028 Net Annual Returns (%)* 1812 604 “Pure” Gross Annual Returns (%)* 2015 7330 925, ‘S&P 500 Index (%) 1517 25.02 1788 ‘Composite 3.¥r St. Dev N/A N/a N/A ‘S&P 500 Index 3-¥r St. Dew. N/
Slide 27: GIPS Composite Report: US Large-Cap Core Equity
IPS" Composite Report US Large-Cap Core Equity Composite Period Ended December 31,2025 Fgures Showin Us, dolar rose Annual Returns (8) yal m2) toss 28S aT Net Annual Retr (4) Ss 2035 ane? ass? seS ss 3220 ‘P00 Index 6)? 9s usa ae aoa 2871 ants uzzll 1000 Index (12 pos somes, 0982s 932887 ‘RP 500 Net
Slide 28: GIPS Composite Report: US Large-Cap Core Growth Equity
IPS” Composite Report US Large-Cap Core Growth Equity Composite Period Ended December 31, 2025 Figures Shown in US. dollar 2018 2017 poe 2013 2020 pout 2022 2023 pore 2028 (ross Anal Returns (6) 167 3735 273 20.83 95.53 az 38055007 3672 1356 Net annual Returns (8) 0.35, 35.82 40 ar 33.82 qes1 389859
Slide 29: GIPS Composite Report: US Large-Cap Growth Equity
GIPS" Composite Report US Large-Cap Growth Equity Composite Period Ended December 31,2025 Figures Shown in US. dallar we ke am am am am am am ama aa ‘Gross Annual Returns (4) Bal 38S2 928320. Net Annual Returns (8)? 1703628035722 798202435835 A829 T1622 Russell 1000 Growth index), roe «302143839 384
Slide 30: GIPS Composite Report: US Large-Cap Value Equity
GIPS* Composite Report US Large-Cap Value Equity Composite Period Ended December 31,2025 Figures Shown in Us dollar por OC OT) vue amma mma mm am cross annual Returns (6) wen a9 aT yess 431 tes Net Annual Return (4)? ae sso taa7 3523 an mae 5.29 as jo 1087 use 1000 Value Inox (4)? vse 1368272558280
Slide 31: GIPS Composite Report: US Structured Research Equity
GIPS* Composite Report US Structured Research Equity Composite Period Ended December 31,2025 Fares shown in Us. dolar 21g fined os prod po) zon Farry ma pes zoe ‘Gross Annual Returns (26), 1090 238 wise aaa4 2068 vest tgao 30.33 2697 1681 Net Annual Retuins (2%)? 943 274 S24 3140 13.03 2682-1352 28.
Slide 32: GIPS Composite Report: US Select Value Equity
GIPS” Composite Report Us Select Value Equity Composite Period Ended December 31,2025 Figures Shown in US. dollar wuz waa maa, Gross Annual Returns (26) 16.87 5.98 28,00 165 2715, 1340, 9.62 15.78, ‘Net Annual Returns (36)2 1540 759 25.86 0.09 25.02, 14s ww 13.83 Basel 100 Valu index (8) aor 827 tod
Slide 33: GIPS Composite Report: US Smaller Companies Equity
GIPS" Composite Report US Smaller Companies Equity Composite Period Ended December 31, 2025 Figures Shown in US, dollar 2016 20 par 209 2020 pant 22 2003 oe 2005 ‘Gross annual Reuens(%) 16091901 53 gras ans] tS 980 28.8 59 5353 et annual Returns (9)? a2, 7a a7 avo mayen a eas 336 Russell 2500 Net 20
Slide 34: Risks
Risks The following risks are materially relevant to the portfolios: Equity – Equities can lose value rapidly for a variety of reasons and can remain at low prices indefinitely. Geographic concentration – Geographic concentration risk may result in performance being more strongly affected by any soc
Slide 35: Additional Disclosure
Additional Disclosure Bloomberg: Bloomberg®” and Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Long Index are service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates, including Bloomberg Index Services Limited (“BISL”), the administrator of the index (collectively, “Bloomberg”) and have been licensed for use for certa
Slide 36: Important Information
Important Information This material is being furnished for general informational and/or marketing purposes only. The material does not constitute or undertake to give advice of any nature, including fiduciary investment advice. Prospective investors are recommended to seek independent legal, financi
Slide 37: Thank You
D4 T.RowePrice Thank You
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