Slide 1: 2025 Gas IRP Technical Advisory Committee Meeting No. 8 Agenda
2025 Gas Integrated Resource Plan Technical Advisory Committee Meeting No. 8 Agenda Wednesday, September 25, 2024 Virtual Meeting Topic Time (PTZ) Staff Feedback from prior TAC 10:30 All Heat Pump Efficiency 10:40 Tom Pardee Electrification Costs 11:20 Tom Pardee Microsoft Teams Need help? Join the
Slide 2: Heat Pump Efficiency
Heat Pump Efficiency September 25, 2024 1
Slide 3: Climate Zones
Climate Zones • Avista LDC territory comprises 3 climate zones • Climate Zone 4: Roseburg, Medford • Climate Zone 5: Klamath Falls, La Grande, Spokane • Climate Zone 6: Northern WA and ID • Climate zones help determine sizing of heat pumps and furnaces Zone btu needed per sq. ft 1 35 2 40 3 45 4 50
Slide 4: Basic Calculation Considerations of Heat Pumps
Basic Calculation Considerations of Heat Pumps • Output Btu • Input Btu 60,000 350% 50,000 300% • Temperature in Fahrenheit 40,000 250% BTU PER HOUR 200% COP 30,000 • Coefficient of Production 20,000 150% 100% • Climate zone 10,000 Input in Btu 50% Output Btu COP - 0% 65 61 57 53 49 45 41 37 33 29 2
Slide 5: COP including auxiliary
COP including auxiliary 350% HP COP Combined COP 300% 250% 200% COP 150% 100% 50% 0% 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 HDD 4 Assumes 100% efficient electric furnace as auxiliary backup heat
Slide 6: Detailed Calculation and Considerations
Detailed Calculation and Considerations • Cubic foot of heating volume (L x W x H) of structure • Exposure to elements (shade, direct exposure) • Window glaze (double pane, single pane) • Room type (kitchen, hall, bedroom) • Desired temperature increase • (desired temperature change) x (cubic feet o
Slide 7: Rates of Energy
Rates of Energy • The energy rate (kWh or therm) has a great deal of impact on overall costs with switchover temperature • Although heat pumps provide a great deal of savings of btus, when colder weather occurs the efficiency declines (COP) 6
Slide 8: Oregon Example
120,000 Current Heat Pump Efficiency Auxiliary Needs for HP Desired Temp Change (Btus per hour) Basic Calculation of Heat needs by zone Oregon Example 100,000 80,000 • Avista 2024 Rate per therm: $1.26 r u o H re 60,000 p U T B • 2024 Res Rate per kWh:$0.13 (blended PAC and 40,000 City of Ashland) 2
Slide 9: Washington Example
120,000 Current Heat Pump Efficiency Auxiliary Needs for HP Washington Example 100,000 Desired Temp Change (Btus per hour) Basic Calculation of Heat needs by zone 80,000 r u o H re 60,000 • Avista 2024 Rate per therm: p U T B 40,000 $1.556 20,000 • Avista 2024 Res Rate per 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25
Slide 10: Current Rates with a 95% efficient NG furnace
Current Rates with a 95% efficient NG furnace Oregon Washington $5.00 Avista Electric HP Costs per hour Residential $4.50 Avista Gas Costs per hour $4.00 Residential $3.50 Economic Hourly cost to Heat $3.00 Switchover $2.50 Economic at 42 HDD $2.00 Switchover at to NG $1.50 14 HDD to NG furnace $1.0
Slide 11: Single Zone - Ductless
Single Zone - Ductless • Smaller area for single units or multiple heat pumps for several areas • High efficiency • Cheaper to install 2000 sq ft house (zone 5) 16,000 350% 140,000 14,000 300% 120,000 12,000 250% 100,000 Current Heat Pump Efficiency Auxiliary Needs for HP 10,000 Desired Temp Change
Slide 12: Summary
Summary • Heat pumps may be a good alternative depending on climate zone, house size and insulation as a primary source of heating • This is magnified in areas of low electricity rates • Heat pump life cycle is generally less than half of expected life cycle of a gas/electric furnace (Additional cap
Slide 13: Electrification Costs
Electrification Costs Oregon and Washington
Slide 14: High Level Diagram of Process
High Level Diagram of Process Electrification Estimated cost for evaluated/selected AEG Load Cost of Equipment space heat and Forecast Rebates/Incentives water heat by area prior to gas load and class forecast Use per Customer Equipment cost by day by area by estimate class Electricity rate by End u
Slide 15: Electrification Costs in the CROME Model
Electrification Costs in the CROME Model • Provides a price elastic response to higher gas costs and compliance to the CCA and CPP • Customers were electrified in the end use model prior to the final gas load forecast • Once a unit is chosen at any point in time within the analysis, it is removed fo
Slide 16: Clean Energy Targets
Clean Energy Targets AIVISTA
Slide 17: Oregon Clean Energy Targets
Oregon Clean Energy Targets • Oregon • In 2021 Oregon State Legislature passed the Clean Energy Targets bill. This bill requires Portland General Electric, PacifiCorp and Electricity Service Suppliers to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity they provide. The bill also created targets
Slide 18: Washington Clean Energy Targets
Washington Clean Energy Targets • CETA applies to all electric utilities serving retail customers in Washington and sets specific milestones to reach a 100% clean electricity supply. • The law requires utilities to phase out coal-fired electricity from their state portfolios by 2025. • By 2030, thei
Slide 19: Electric Rates
Electric Rates AIVISTA
Slide 20: Electric Rate assumptions
Electric Rate assumptions • Current Rates for each provider and inflated to 2026 $ then increased by estimated rate impact for Avista’s electric $ per kWh from Washington territory • The resource mix of Avista as compared to Pacific Power is much cleaner so the impacts to Pacific Power would likely
Slide 21: Washington Electric Provider Rates
Washington Electric Provider Rates Est.Total E. Wash electric • Washington rates are weighted by # of customers with crossover from natural customers for each provider. VERA Modern Inland Avista gas territory • These providers are Avista (81%), WA % of Total Customers 13,000 4% 16,000 5% 32,000 10%
Slide 22: Oregon Electric Provider Rates
Oregon Electric Provider Rates • Southern Oregon rates are weighted by # of customers Total Avista Gas Customers from each electric provider. City of Ashland Pacific Power S. Oregon • These providers are the City of Ashland (12%) and Customers 11,000 83,601 94,601 Pacific Power (88%) % of Total Cust
Slide 23: Electric Rate forecast
Electric Rate forecast Commercial Rate Estimate Residential Rate Estimate $0.40 $0.400 WA Com Rate S. OR Com Rate La Grande Com Rate WA Res Rate S. OR Res Rate La Grande Res Rate $0.35 $0.350 $0.30 $0.300 $0.25 $0.250 $ per kWh $ per kWh $0.20 $0.200 $0.15 $0.150 $0.10 $0.100 $0.05 $0.050 $- $- 2039
Slide 24: Equipment Costs and Rebates/Credits
Equipment Costs and Rebates/Credits 12
Slide 25: Equipment Costs
Equipment Costs • Assumes a 3-ton ducted heat pump is needed for space heat (2,000 sq. ft. house) • Full electrification cost for all appliances is assumed at $13,162 (2024 $)* • 3-ton ducted heat pump $5,993 • Heat pump water heater $3,528 • Electric Range $2,038 • Electric Dryer $1,602 • Costs are
Slide 26: IRA Rules
IRA Rules • Depending on income level, rebates for these home efficiency upgrades can be as much as 100% of the costs, up to $14,000 • Avista will assume 50% of costs for all residential customers are covered by the IRA or other pathways Maximum Allowed Rebate Amount Per Maximum Allowed Rebate Amoun
Slide 27: Input
15 Input AIVISTA
Slide 28: Weather
Weather • RCP 4.5 weather is used at a daily level to estimate energy needs by planning region. • This is then rolled up to an average monthly level by end use 9000 6500 7500 8500 Spokane 6000 Roseburg 7000 Medford 8000 5500 6500 Annual HDDs 7500 Annual HDDs 6000 Annual HDDs 5000 7000 5500 4500 6500
Slide 29: COP including auxiliary
COP including auxiliary 350% HP COP Combined COP 300% 250% 200% COP 150% 100% 50% 0% 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 Degrees of desired temperature change (Heating only) - Fahrenheit Assumes 100% efficient electric furnace as auxiliary backup heat Below
Slide 30: Use per customer
18 Therms 0 100 120 20 40 60 80 Jan-26 Sep-26 May-27 Jan-28 Sep-28 May-29 Use per customer Jan-30 Sep-30 May-31 Jan-32 Sep-32 May-33 Jan-34 Sep-34 May-35 Natural Gas (Therms) Jan-36 La Grande Space Heat Sep-36 May-37 Jan-38 Sep-38 May-39 Jan-40 Sep-40 Electric (Therm eq.) May-41 Jan-42 Sep-42 May-43
Slide 31: Daily Conversion to kWh
Daily Conversion to kWh Peak Day Washington Residential Medford Residential Space Heat Space Heat 30.00 30.00 25.00 25.00 20.00 20.00 kWh Per therm kWh Per therm 15.00 15.00 10.00 10.00 5.00 5.00 - - 2042 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2043 2044 2045
Slide 32: Electrification Cost Estimates
Electrification Cost Estimates 20
Slide 33: Levelized Cost
Example with No Equipment Costs: Levelized beginning in 2026 Levelized Cost $12.80 per month levelized • Calculated at 20 year increments • Includes inflation adjustment for each year • Current cost of capital is included in levelized costs • (6.71% OR, 6.51% WA) • This is done each year from 2026-2
Slide 34: Cost without equipment costs
Cost without equipment costs • Per customer, per month, per end use, without appliance cost $90.00 $90.00 La Grande Res - Water Heat La Grande Res - Space Heat $80.00 $80.00 Klamath Falls Res - Space Heat Klamath Falls Res - Water Heat Medford Res - Space Heat $70.00 Medford Res - Water Heat $70.00
Slide 35: Cost with equipment costs
Cost with equipment costs $350.00 $250.00 La Grande Res - Water Heat La Grande Res - Space Heat $300.00 Klamath Falls Res - Water Heat Klamath Falls Res - Space Heat Medford Res - Water Heat $200.00 Medford Res - Space Heat $250.00 Roseburg Res - Water Heat Roseburg Res - Space Heat WA Res - Water H
Slide 36: Questions and/or Feedback?
Questions and/or Feedback? 24
Slide 37: Future ways to make this analysis better
Future ways to make this analysis better • Actual rate forecasts from each electric provider based on their most recent forecast • Would likely need help from OPUC and WUTC • Break down costs by income level to understand incentives available • Break down costs for retrofit, specifically, to include