Expand Energy Corporation · NASDAQ:EXE
Expand Energy — Q1 2025 Earnings Presentation
30 slides from Expand Energy's earnings presentation, Apr 30, 2025
Slide 1: 1Q 2025 Earnings
1Q 2025 Earnings APRIL 29, 2025
Slide 2: Forward-Looking Statements
Forward-Looking Statements This presentation includes “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Forward-looking statements include our current expectations or forecasts
Slide 3: 1Q25 Operational and Financial Highlights
1Q25 Operational and Financial Highlights Largest Domestic On Track to Capture Upgraded to Investment Natural Gas Producer ~$400mm of Synergies Grade from Moody’s 1Q25 beat with net production of ~6.8 Bcfe/d, ~$1.4bn of Adj. EBITDAX(1) and ~$660mm of Capex in 2025 Investment Grade credit ratings by
Slide 4: Attractive, Connected Portfolio
Expanding Returns, Expanding Opportunities Attractive, Peer-leading Resilient Responsible Connected Returns Financial Stewardship Portfolio Foundation Premium rock, returns, Most efficient operator Investment Grade Connecting affordable, runway with access to with proven track record balance sheet p
Slide 5: Attractive, Connected Portfolio
Attractive, Connected Portfolio Superior Portfolio Characteristics Northeast Appalachia ~700,000 net acres >1,500 gross locations Scale: Largest natural gas producer in FY25E Prod: ~2,600 MMcfe/d North America with ~1.9mm net acres, ~7.1 Bcfe/d in 2025 Southwest Appalachia ~566,000 net acres Flexibi
Slide 6: 2025 Synergy Capture
2025 Synergy Capture Annual Synergy Outlook ~$500/yr ($mm) 2025 Synergy $100 expected by YE26 2026+ Synergy $70 $40 $130 $50 ~$400/yr ~$400 expected in 2025 $200 $110 $200 Corporate & D&C Other Operating Initial Synergy Additional Identified Updated Regional Costs Cost Savings & Capital Target @ 1/1
Slide 7: Capital Outlook
Capital Outlook 2025 Capital Expenditures Demonstrate Significant ~$3.0bn of total capital Efficiency Relative to Standalone 2024 Programs (Implied Midpoints of 2025 Guidance, $mm) spend for 2025 ~$3.0bn ~$2.7bn capital delivers Productive capacity build ~7.1 Bcfe/d in 2025 ~$300 (+300 MMcfe/d ~
Slide 8: Minimal Near-term Impact from Tariffs
Minimal Near-term Impact from Tariffs Illustrative AFE Components and Cost Trends YE24 compared to YE25 expectations Favorable near-term outlook for service pricing offsets potential tariff impacts PHASE SUB-CATEGORY % OF AFE TREND • OFS demand remains near recent-term lows OCTG 8% – 12% • Weak oi
Slide 9: Production Outlook
Production Outlook Growing Annual Production from 2025 Production Plan: 2024 Productive Capacity Activation (MMcfe/d) ~7.1 Bcfe/d Actual Estimates Generating attractive FCF from 2024 productive ~7,500 capacity ~300 Expecting to exit 2025 at ~7.2 Bcfe/d, turning in line substantially all producti
Slide 10: EXE is Positioned to Meet Demand
EXE is Positioned to Meet Demand NE App Quarterly Production Haynesville Quarterly Production (MMcfe/d) (MMcfe/d) 2,950 2,900 2,425 2,668 2,615 2,600 2,617 2,338 4Q24A 1Q25A 2Q25E FY25E 4Q24A 1Q25A 2Q25E FY25E Rigs 2 2 2 2–3 Rigs 8 7 7 7–9 Crews 2 2 2 2 Crews 3 3 4 3–4 SW App Quarterly Production
Slide 11: Optimizing Maintenance Production to Maximize Free Cash Flow
Optimizing Maintenance Production to Maximize Free Cash Flow (1) Centering activity to deliver ~7.5 Bcfe/d through-cycle maximizes FCF at mid-cycle prices between $3.50 to $4.00 Illustrative Annual FCF(2) at Various Mid-cycle Prices, Maintenance Production and Capital Mid-cycle Price, $/Mcf $2.50 $2
Slide 12: Productive Capacity Success Story
Productive Capacity Success Story Illustrative Productive Capacity Strategy 2024 Productive Capacity Generated Significant Value ~$225mm increase in FCF over first (1) 12 months of volume from productive capacity wells(2) OVERPRODUCING BAND ~7.5 Bcfe/d midpoint aligns with $3.50 – $4.00 mid-cycle pr
Slide 13: Ready to Answer the Call for Growing Demand
Ready to Answer the Call for Growing Demand Advantaged transportation portfolio expected to provide deliverability, diversification and flexibility Haynesville NE Appalachia • Haynesville portfolio balanced between growing LNG demand • ~1 Bcf/d flows East to premium priced Northeast points and S
Slide 14: Being LNG Ready Will Create Meaningful Value and Enhance Returns
Being LNG Ready Will Create Meaningful Value and Enhance Returns Growing Exports Expected to be Significant to U.S. Gas Demand (U.S. LNG Capacity, Bcf/d)(1) Fully financed, under construction LNG projects Plaquemines increase U.S. capacity >40% ~29 Bcf/d Lake Charles Magnolia Sempra – Cameron of t
Slide 15: Enhanced Capital Returns Framework
Enhanced Capital Returns Framework Program designed to return cash to shareholders and reduce net debt $2.30/ Annual Base Dividend share Tranche 1 – Annual Base Dividend EXCESS FCF • $2.30/share • Remains priority and is paid through-cycle • 1Q25 DPS of $0.575/sh to be paid in June $116mm Net Debt
Slide 16: Investment Grade Rating Demonstrates Resilient Financial Foundation
Investment Grade Rating Demonstrates Resilient Financial Foundation Investment Grade Ratings Expand Energy Debt Maturity Profile ($mm)(2) • Baa3 from Moody’s (New!) ~6.00% • BBB- from S&P EXE ~6.10% RBL Capacity • BBB- from Fitch $700 5.375% Financial Policy Targets $500 5.375% 4.75% • ~$1.1bn i
Slide 17: Current Hedge Position Preserves Upside as Prices Strengthen
Current Hedge Position Preserves Upside as Prices Strengthen Hedged Natural Gas Volumes Added since 4Q Earnings (Bcf) Last Public Disclosure (Bcf) 23 24 35 40 56 57 341 338 307 271 41 190 158 17 112 36 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26 4Q26 1Q27 Current Hedge Book Supports Near-Term Realizations and Pre
Slide 18: Appendix
Appendix expand 1Q 2025 EARNINGS
Slide 19: Management's Guidance as of April 29, 2025
Management’s Guidance as of April 29, 2025 Production (MMcfe/d) 1Q25A 2Q25E 2025E Operating Costs (per Mcfe of Projected Production) 1Q25A 2025E Total Production 6,788 7,100 – 7,200 7,000 – 7,200 Production Expense $0.24 $0.25 – $0.30 Haynesville 2,617 ~2,950 ~2,900 Gathering, Processing and Transpo
Slide 20: 1Q25 EXE Business Unit Results
1Q25 EXE Business Unit Results Haynesville NE Appalachia SW Appalachia Production (MMcfe/d) 2,617 2,668 1,503 Production Expense ($/Mcfe) $0.30 $0.16 $0.29 Differential to NYMEX ($/Mcf) $(0.17) $0.10 $(0.27) GP&T ($/Mcfe) $0.75 $0.94 $1.19 Rigs 7 2 2 Spuds (by zone) Haynesville 8 Bossier 13 Lower 4
Slide 21: Haynesville, Northeast and Southwest Appalachia Sales Points
Haynesville, Northeast and Southwest Appalachia Sales Points Haynesville Sales Points Northeast Appalachia Sales Points Southwest Appalachia Sales Points DEDUCT FROM NYMEX ($)(1) DEDUCT FROM NYMEX ($)(1) DEDUCT FROM NYMEX ($)(1) Historical Avg Current Historical Avg Current Historical Avg Current CG
Slide 22: Historical and Future Expected Rig and Production Activity
Historical and Future Expected Rig and Production Activity Average Rig Count(1) Historical and Future Estimated Production(1) ~15 rigs Running up to 15 rigs ~300 MMcfe/d of as of in 2H25 creates productive capacity merger productive capacity by 2026 if market close for 2026 fundamentals warrant ~7,5
Slide 23: Fully Diluted Share Count Breakdown
Fully Diluted Share Count Breakdown As of 4/24/2025 3.0 238.0 238.0 241.0 - Shares Warrants Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 23 1Q 2025 Earnings
Slide 24: Reducing Risk, Protecting Returns Through Hedge Program
Reducing Risk, Protecting Returns Through Hedge Program NATURAL GAS ESTIMATED NYMEX GAS SETTLEMENT ($mm) SWAPS COSTLESS COLLARS THREE-WAY COLLARS $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 Date Bought Bought Date Volume Price Volume Sold Call Volume Sold Call Sold Put NYMEX NYMEX NYMEX NYMEX Put Put Bcf $/Mcf Bcf $/Mc
Slide 25: Reducing Risk, Protecting Returns Through Hedge Program
Reducing Risk, Protecting Returns Through Hedge Program NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS ESTIMATED NGL SETTLEMENT ($mm) C2 SWAPS C3 SWAPS C4 SWAPS C5 SWAPS Date Date $0.25 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 Volume Price Volume Price Volume Price Volume Price MBbl $/gal MBbl $/gal MBbl $/gal MBbl $/gal 1Q 2025 900 0.25 603 0.73 1
Slide 26: Reducing Risk, Protecting Returns Through Hedge Program
Reducing Risk, Protecting Returns Through Hedge Program CRUDE OIL ESTIMATED NYMEX WTI SETTLEMENT ($mm) SWAPS COSTLESS COLLARS THREE-WAY COLLARS $60.00 $70.00 $80.00 $90.00 Date Bought Bought Date Volume Price Volume Sold Call Volume Sold Call Sold Put WTI WTI WTI WTI Put Put MBbl $/Bbl MBbl $/Bbl MB
Slide 27: Hedged Financial Basis
Hedged Financial Basis HAYNESVILLE NORTHEAST APPALACHIA CGT MAINLINE TETCO WLA TGT Z1 TETCO M3 TGP Z4 300L LEIDY EASTERN GAS Date Volume Avg. Price Volume Avg. Price Volume Avg. Price Volume Avg. Price Volume Avg. Price Volume Avg. Price Volume Avg. Price Bcf $/Mcf Bcf $/Mcf Bcf $/Mcf Bcf $/Mcf Bcf
Slide 28: Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Non-GAAP Financial Measures As a supplement to the financial results prepared in accordance with U.S. GAAP, Expand Energy’s quarterly earnings presentations contain certain financial measures that are not prepared or presented in accordance with U.S. GAAP. These non-GAAP financial measures include A
Slide 29: Reconciliation of Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities to Adjusted Free Cash Flow
Reconciliation of Net Income (Loss) to Adjusted Reconciliation of Net Cash Provided by Operating EBITDAX (Unaudited) Activities to Adjusted Free Cash Flow (Unaudited) Three Three Three Three Three Months Months Months Months Months Ended Ended Ended Ended Trailing Ended March 31, December 31, Septem
Slide 30: Reconciliation of Total Debt to Total Capitalization
Reconciliation of Net Cash Provided by Operating Reconciliation of Total Debt to Total Capitalization Activities to Adjusted EBITDAX (Unaudited) (Unaudited) Three Months Ended Three Months Ended March 31, 2025 March 31, 2024 March 31, 2025 ($ in millions) ($ in millions) Net Cash Provided by Operati