Xcel Energy Inc. · NASDAQ:XEL
Xcel Energy — Q2 2024 Earnings Presentation
33 slides from Xcel Energy's earnings presentation, Aug 1, 2024
Slide 1: Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Presentation
SECOND QUARTER 2024 EARNINGS PRESENTATION August 1, 2024 © 2024 Xcel Energy 1
Slide 2: Safe Harbor
Safe Harbor Except for the historical statements contained in this presentation, the matters discussed herein are forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Such forward-looking statements, including those relating to 2024 EPS guidance, long-term EPS
Slide 3: Xcel Energy 2024 Q2 Highlights
Xcel Energy 2024 Q2 Highlights • 2024 Q2 EPS of $0.54 compared to $0.52 in 2023 Q2 • 2024 YTD EPS of $1.42 compared to $1.28 in 2023 YTD • Reaffirming 2024 ongoing EPS guidance of $3.50 to $3.60 • Continued progress with clean energy transition RFPs – NSP issued RFP for 1,600 MW of wind, solar, stor
Slide 4: Resource Plan and RFP Schedule
Resource Plan and RFP Schedule RFP In-Service Status 800 MW Firm Dispatchable* By 2028 • Decision expected mid-2025 • Filing recommendations Fall 2024 1,200 MW Build-Own-Transfer Wind** By 2027 • Decision expected mid-2025 NSP • Bids due September 2024 650 MW Solar + Storage** 2027-2029 • Decision e
Slide 5: 2025-2027 Colorado Wildfire Mitigation Plan
2025-2027 Colorado Wildfire Mitigation Plan* Meteorology Risk Mapping / Modelling 300 with remote setting and 100% of Tier 2/3 non- Feeders of EPSS** Situational Awareness AI Cameras underground feeders equipped for fast-trip Continuous Monitoring 150 Miles of small wire rebuild incrementally replac
Slide 6: EPS Results by Operating Company
EPS Results by Operating Company Second Quarter YTD Operating Company 2024 2023 2024 2023 NSPM $ 0.24 $ 0.23 $ 0.61 $ 0.48 PSCo 0.21 0.17 0.61 0.56 SPS 0.16 0.15 0.26 0.25 NSPW 0.04 0.05 0.12 0.13 Earnings from equity method investments 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 Regulated utility 0.66 0.60 1.62 1.43 Holdi
Slide 7: Quarterly GAAP and Ongoing EPS Change
Quarterly GAAP and Ongoing EPS Change 7
Slide 8: YTD GAAP and Ongoing EPS Change
YTD GAAP and Ongoing EPS Change 8
Slide 9: Sales and Customer Data
Sales and Customer Data 2024 YTD W/A Retail Electric Sales Growth 2024 Q2 YoY Electric Customer Growth (leap year adjusted) 4.7% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 0.8% 0.5% -1.5% -0.4% -2.6% -2.6% NSPM NSPW PSCo SPS Xcel Energy NSPM NSPW PSCo SPS Xcel Energy 2024 YTD W/A Natural Gas Sales Growth 2024 Q2 YoY Natural Ga
Slide 10: Keep Customer Bills Low
Keep Customer Bills Low Average Xcel Energy Residential Bill to 2014-2024E Residential Electric CAGR = ~1.5% National Average 2014-2024E Natural Gas CAGR = ~(0.5%) Electric Natural Gas $98 $98 $96 $89 $83 $84 $84 $80 $81 $81 $80 $81 Electric $68 $62 $59 $54 -14% $51 $48 $42 $48 $45 $44 Natural Gas 2
Slide 11: Data Center Growth
Data Center Growth Data Center Load Growth Data Center Wins Data Center Sales CAGR* • Recent Contracts: Meta (MN) and QTS (CO) +9.1% • Land sales to Microsoft and third-party to support multiple data sites at Sherco (MN) • Xcel Energy competitive advantages: Total Customer Requests = ~6,700 MW – Low
Slide 12: NSPM Minnesota Natural Gas Rate Case
NSPM Minnesota Natural Gas Rate Case Proceeding No. 23-413 • In November 2023, NSPM filed a natural gas rate case requesting: − Base rate increase of ~$59 million − ROE of 10.2%, equity ratio of 52.5%, rate base of $1.27 billion and 2024 forward test year • MPUC approved interim rates of $51 million
Slide 13: PSCo Colorado Natural Gas Rate Case
PSCo Colorado Natural Gas Rate Case Proceeding No. 24AL-0049G • In January 2024, PSCo filed a natural gas rate case requesting: − Base rate increase of ~$171 million − ROE of 10.25%, equity ratio of 55%, rate base of $4.2 billion and 2023 historic test year • Procedural Schedule: − Intervenor testim
Slide 14: Smokehouse Creek Fire
Smokehouse Creek Fire • Our distribution poles appear to have been involved in an ignition of the Smokehouse Creek Fire and the smaller Reamer Fire (which burned into the Smokehouse Creek Fire) – We dispute claims that we acted negligently in maintaining and operating our infrastructure – We have es
Slide 15: 2024 Ongoing EPS Guidance: $3.50 - $3.60
2024 Ongoing EPS Guidance: $3.50 - $3.60 Earnings Drivers Key Assumptions (as compared to 2023 levels unless noted) Regulatory proceedings Constructive outcomes in all pending proceedings Weather Normal weather patterns for the remainder of the year W/A retail electric sales Increase of ~1% W/A reta
Slide 16: Attractive Investment Thesis
Attractive Investment Thesis • Vertically integrated utility across eight states Pure-Play, Regulated Utility • Met or exceeded earnings guidance for 19 consecutive years that Consistently Delivers • Dividend increases for 21 consecutive years • Long-term EPS and dividend growth of 5-7% Transparent
Slide 17: Target Returns
Target Returns 5-7% EPS Growth ~9-11% Total Shareholder Return ~4% Dividend Yield 5-7% CAGR | 50-60% Payout Ratio 17
Slide 18: Appendix
APPENDIX 18
Slide 19: ROE Results – Ongoing Earnings
ROE Results – Ongoing Earnings Ongoing ROE* 2023 Rate Base Twelve Months Ended 6/30/2024 SPS 11.09% 17% 9.52% 9.30% 9.94% 8.88% NSPM 7.82% 37% ~$42 PSCo Billion 40% NSPM NSPW PSCo SPS Total Xcel Energy NSPW OpCo 6% * Ongoing ROEs exclude impacts of Comanche Unit 3 litigation and workforce reduction
Slide 20: Base Capital Expenditures by Function
Base Capital Expenditures by Function $ Millions 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Total Electric Transmission $1,710 $2,020 $2,450 $2,850 $2,470 $11,500 Electric Distribution $1,770 $1,960 $2,200 $2,200 $2,470 $10,600 Renewables $1,500 $2,910 $940 $240 $20 $5,610 Electric Generation $940 $1,290 $1,050 $1,06
Slide 21: Base Capital Expenditures by Company
Base Capital Expenditures by Company $ Millions 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Total NSPM $2,660 $2,970 $2,380 $2,500 $2,540 $13,050 NSPW $570 $600 $570 $600 $650 $2,990 PSCo $3,300 $5,230 $4,320 $3,620 $2,730 $19,200 SPS $910 $780 $660 $870 $830 $4,050 Other* ($20) ($300) $10 $10 $10 ($290) Total $7,420
Slide 22: Incremental Capital Investment – Steel for Fuel 2.0
Incremental Capital Investment – Steel for Fuel 2.0 Capital Investment 2024 – 2028 $44,000 $740 $1,640 $ Millions 1,850 MW $39,000 $2,620 Recommended Outstanding RFPs Solar + Storage Future PSCo RFPs Base Capital Plan PSCo Resource Plan SPS Resource Plan NSP RFPs Additional Capital Plan Estimates ar
Slide 23: Potential Investment Not Included in Base or Incremental Plan
Potential Investment Not Included in Base or Incremental Plan • 1,600 MW Solar, Wind, Storage, Hybrid RFP NSP Resource Plan • ~2,100 MW future RFPs • Assuming 50% ownership, capital costs of ~$1,500-2,000/kw • Potential capital investment of $3-4 billion* • 5,000-10,000 MW of incremental generation
Slide 24: Financing Plan 2024 – 2028
Financing Plan 2024 – 2028* $3,500 $500 $ Millions $13,000 $3,780 $3,780 $39,000 $22,000 CFO** Maturing Refinanced Incremental Equity Equity Base Plan LT Debt LT Debt Debt (Other) (DRIP) * Financing plans reflect tax credit transferability and are subject to change ** Cash from operations is net of
Slide 25: 2024 Debt Financing
2024 Debt Financing $ Millions Issuer Security Amount Status Tenor Coupon Hold Co Unsecured Bonds $800 Complete 10-Yr 5.50% NSPM First Mortgage Bonds $700 Complete 30-Yr 5.40% 10-Yr 5.35% PSCo First Mortgage Bonds $1,200 Complete 30-Yr 5.75% NSPW First Mortgage Bonds $400 Complete 30-Yr 5.65% SPS Fi
Slide 26: Strong Balance Sheet and Credit Metrics
Strong Balance Sheet and Credit Metrics Plan 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 FFO/Debt 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% Debt/EBITDA 5.3x 5.3x 5.3x 5.3x 5.2x Equity Ratio 41% 41% 41% 40% 41% Hold Co Debt/Total Debt 24% 22% 23% 23% 23% Credit Ratings Moody’s S&P Fitch Xcel Energy Unsecured Baa1 BBB BBB+ NSPM Secured Aa3 A
Slide 27: 2024 YTD W/A Electric Sales Growth
2024 YTD W/A Electric Sales Growth NSPM NSPW PSCo SPS Residential C&I Total Retail 6.2% 4.7% -0.6% -0.3% -1.5% -2.4% -2.6% -2.8% -2.5% -2.6% -2.1% -3.5% Leap year adjusted Extreme weather variations, windchill and cloud cover may not be reflected in estimates 27
Slide 28: Xcel Energy W/A Sales Growth
Xcel Energy W/A Sales Growth Residential C&I Total Retail Electric Natural Gas Electric Natural Gas 3.2% 1.2% 1.0% 1.8% 1.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.4% -0.1% -0.4% -1.3% -0.9% YTD YTD YTD YTD 2022 2023 2024* 2022 2023 2024* 2022 2023 2024* 2022 2023 2024* * Leap year adjusted Extreme weather variations, windchi
Slide 29: NSPM North Dakota Natural Gas Rate Case
NSPM North Dakota Natural Gas Rate Case Proceeding No. 23-367 • In December 2023, NSPM filed a natural gas rate case requesting: − Base rate increase of ~$8.5 million − ROE of 10.2%, equity ratio of 52.5% and 2024 forward test year − Rate base of $168 million • Interim rates of ~$8 million in effect
Slide 30: NSPW Michigan Electric Rate Case
NSPW Michigan Electric Rate Case Proceeding No. U-21565 • In June 2024, NSPW filed a Michigan electric rate case requesting: − Base rate increase of ~$2.9 million − ROE of 10.0%, equity ratio of 52%, and 2025 forward test year • Proposed an Investment Recovery Mechanism (IRM) seeking additional incr
Slide 31: Marshall Wildfire
Marshall Wildfire • Xcel Energy agrees with the Sheriff that Twelve Tribes caused the first ignition – which was burning for more than an hour before the second ignition • We strongly disagree with the conclusions in the Sheriff’s report that we caused the second ignition, which reportedly started 8
Slide 32: 2024 Q3 Events
2024 Q3 Events Events Dates Midwest / Texas Non-Deal Roadshow August 7-8 UBS Kohler Conference August 14 Barclays Energy & Power Conference September 4 Canada Non-Deal Roadshow September 10-11 32
Slide 33: © 2024 Xcel Energy
© 2024 Xcel Energy 33