Slide 1: North American Phosphate Outlook
North American Phosphate Outlook Dr. Michael Rahm Vice President Market and Strategic Analysis CRU Phosphates 2012 Conference Hotel Mazagan El-Jadida, Morocco March 19-21, 2012 Exhibit 99.1
Slide 2: Topics
Topics Current Situation and Near Term Outlook Long Term Outlook Evolving Role of U.S. Industry
Slide 3: Current Situation and Near Term Outlook
Current Situation and Near Term Outlook
Slide 4: Expected Features
Expected Features Positive crop nutrient demand drivers Record global phosphate shipments but . . . A slow start followed by a fast finish this year Lower and less volatile raw materials costs Several supply and demand uncertainties Impacted by sentiment and intangibles
Slide 5: Positive crop nutrient demand drivers
Positive crop nutrient demand drivers Markets still signaling for more area and yield 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 8.00 O N D J F M A M J J US$ BU New Crop Corn Prices Daily Close of the New Crop Option October 1 to June 30 Source: CBOT 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 11.00 12.00 13.00 14.00 15
Slide 6: High prices in 2011 did not move the needle
High prices in 2011 did not move the needle 10/11E11/12F12/13F13/14F Mil Tonnes World Grain & Oilseed Stocks Source: USDA and Mosaic 2013/14 Grain and Oilseed Scenario Assumptions Low Medium High Harvested Area Change 0.00% 0.25% 0.50% Yield Deviation from Trend * Largest Negative 0.0% Largest Posit
Slide 7: Potential for a strong supply response
Potential for a strong supply response 2.40 2.50 2.60 2.70 2.80 2.90 3.00 3.10 MT Ha Mil Ha World Grain and Oilseed Area and Yields Harvested Area Yield Trend Source: USDA 10/11E 11/12F 12/13F Mil Tonnes World Grain & Oilseed Production Historical 2012/13 Range 2012/13 Medium Scenario Source: USDA a
Slide 8: Positive drivers underpin record phosphate shipment forecasts
Positive drivers underpin record phosphate shipment forecasts Source: Fertecon and Mosaic 62-64 64-66 11E 12F 13F Mil Tonnes DAP/MAP/MES/TSP World Processed Phosphate Shipments
Slide 9: North American phosphate shipments and use have recovered to high levels
North American phosphate shipments and use have recovered to high levels 3.0 4.5 6.0 7.5 9.0 10.5 12.0 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 11E12F 13F Mil Tons Product Mil Tons P O NA Phosphate Use and DAP/MAP/MES/TSP Shipments Phosphate Use Total Shipments Source: AAPFCO, TFI, IFA and Mosaic Fertilizer Year
Slide 10: Strong U.S. shipments last Fall followed by slow movement this Winter
Strong U.S. shipments last Fall followed by slow movement this Winter 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Mil Tons U.S. DAP and MAP/MES Domestic Shipments 2011/12 Fcst 6-Yr Olympic Avg Source: TFI and Mosaic MIN MAX Range (2005/06-2010/11)
Slide 11: Average North American shipments expected this Spring
Average North American shipments expected this Spring Source: TFI, USDC and Mosaic 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 Jul-Dec Jan Jun Mil Tons Implied North American Phosphate Shipments Yr Min-Max Range 2011/12 5-Yr Average - -
Slide 12: U.S. exports have stabilized in the 6-7 million ton range
U.S. exports have stabilized in the 6-7 million ton range during the last five years 12F 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 Mil Tons U.S. DAP and MAP/MES Exports Source: TFI and Mosaic Fertilizer Year Ending June 30
Slide 13: Low shipments during first half of 2012 expected to reduce U.S. exports
Low shipments during the FH of 2012 expected to reduce U.S. exports this fertilizer year 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Mil Tons U.S. DAP and MAP/MES Exports MIN MAX Range (2005/06-2010/11) 2011/12 Fcst 6-Yr Olympic Avg Source: TFI and Mosaic
Slide 14: U.S. DAP/MAP/MES production has remained steady
U.S. DAP/MAP/MES production has remained steady at about 14 million tons 0.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 12.0 15.0 18.0 21.0 12F Mil Tons U.S. DAP and MAP/MES Production Source: TFI and Mosaic Fertilizer Year Ending June 30
Slide 15: Record shattering U.S. imports in 2010/11
Record shattering U.S. imports in 2010/11 but significantly less expected in 2011/12 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 12F Mil Tons U.S. DAP and MAP Imports Source: TFI, USDOC, and Mosaic Fertilizer Year Ending June 30
Slide 16: North American offshore imports have declined from record levels
North American offshore imports have declined from record levels in 2010/11 Mosaic 39.5% Imports 15.0% Other NA 45.5% North American Phosphate Shipments 2010/11 Mosaic 48.6% Imports 4.6% Other NA 46.8% North American Phosphate Shipments 2011/12 YTD
Slide 17: U.S. DAP/MAP producer stocks have increased but remain within recent ranges
U.S. DAP/MAP producer stocks have increased but remain within recent ranges 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Mil Tons U.S. DAP and MAP Producer Stocks Source: TFI
Slide 18: Lower and less volatile raw materials costs
Lower and less volatile raw materials costs $ LT Sulphur Prices c&f Tampa Source: Green Markets $ MT Phosphate Rock Prices fob Morocco Source: Fertilizer Week
Slide 19: Lower and less volatile raw materials costs
Lower and less volatile raw materials costs Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 $ MM Btu Henry Hub Natural Gas Price Daily Closing Price of the Front Month Contract Source: NYMEX $ MT Ammonia Prices c&f Tampa Source: Fertecon
Slide 20: Several Uncertainties
Several Uncertainties Indian demand Chinese exports Ma’aden ramp-up Arab Spring production disruptions
Slide 21: Impact of higher retail prices on Indian demand
Impact of higher retail prices on Indian demand Rupees Tonne Unless Noted 2010/11 2011/12 FH 2011/12 SH 2012/13A 2012/13B 2012/13C (1) DAP Contract Price c&f India (US$ Tonne) $500 $612 $677 $525 $565 $600 (2) Rupee/US$ (Average for Period or Forecast) 45.6 45.3 50.6 49.5 49.5 49.5 (3) DAP Contract
Slide 22: Chinese exports in 2012
Chinese exports in 2012 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 11E Mil Tonnes China Processed Phosphate Export Supply TSP MAP DAP Source: Fertecon, IFA, China Customs and Mosaic
Slide 23: Ma'aden ramp-up
Ma’aden ramp-up 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 11E 12F 13F Mil Tonnes Saudi Arabia DAP Export Supply Source: Fertecon
Slide 24: Arab Spring production disruptions
Arab Spring production disruptions 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 11E 12F Mil Tonnes Tunisia Processed Phosphate Export Supply TSP DAP Source: Fertecon
Slide 25: Key Factors to Handicap
Key Factors to Handicap Agricultural commodity prices - Weather – beware a big supply response - Political and economic developments – impact on energy prices and the value of the dollar - Speculative positions The Uncertainties - Indian demand - Chinese exports - Ma’aden ramp-up - Arab Spring Senti
Slide 26: Long Term Outlook
Long Term Outlook
Slide 27: Expected Developments
Expected Developments Strong demand growth underpinned by the food and energy stories - Relatively high commodity prices - Profitable farm economics - Global phosphate demand growth of 2.5%-3.0% per year - DAP/MAP/TSP shipment growth of ~3% per year Net capacity increases expected to keep pace with
Slide 28: The food story by the numbers
2 3 1 The food story by the numbers 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 Mil Tonnes Source: USDA and Mosaic World Grain and Oilseed Use Actual for U.S. Ethanol Actual Forecast for U.S. Ethanol Forecast 1. Population growth and increases in per capital GDP are expected to gener
Slide 29: Positive long term outlook
Positive long term outlook World Acid Production Million Tonnes P O Capacity Production to Meet Demand World Phosphate Shipments Million Tonnes DAP/MAP/MES/TSP 74% 66% 80% 68% 79% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% World Acid Operating Rates
Slide 30: The Evolving Role of the U.S. Industry
The Evolving Role of the U.S. Industry
Slide 31: Expected Evolution
Expected Evolution Lesser role in a growing global market but . . . Still a large and stable U.S. industry Focus on maintaining a competitive advantage - Florida – large scale, low cost rock mining operations - Louisiana – cost advantaged sulphur, ammonia and access to major U.S. agricultural region
Slide 32: Rock is our competitive advantage in Florida
Rock is our competitive advantage in Florida Ona DeSoto
Slide 33: Our Florida operations have more than 45 years of rock reserves
Our Florida operations have more than 45 years of rock reserves Our Florida chemical plants require about 11.8 million tonnes of rock per year when running at 90% of capacity. Our current reserves are sufficient to run our Florida operations for more than 45 years. Source: Mosaic 2010/11 10-K. Phosp
Slide 34: Innovative Premium Products
Innovative Premium Products MicroEssentials ® deliver significant value - Sulphur in elemental and sulphate form as well as micronutrients ribboned throughout each granule - Yield increases of 3%-7% based on field trials conducted during the last 10 years - Largest yield boost in the most intensive
Slide 35: Thank You!
North American Phosphate Outlook Dr. Michael Rahm Vice President Market and Strategic Analysis CRU Phosphates 2012 Conference Hotel Mazagan El-Jadida, Morocco March 19-21, 2012 Thank You!