Exelon Corporation · NASDAQ:EXC
Exelon — Edison Electric Institute Conference 2007
91 slides from Exelon's conference presentation, Nov 5, 2007
Slide 1: Value Driven
Value Driven Edison Electric Institute Conference Orlando, Florida November 5-6, 2007 John F. Young Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Exhibit 99.1
Slide 2: Forward-Looking Statements
2 Forward-Looking Statements This presentation includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, that are subject to risks and uncertainties. The factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking stat
Slide 3: Today's discussion will focus on Exelon's five-year outlook
3 Today’s discussion will focus on Exelon’s five-year outlook Agenda Industry & Market Dynamics PECO ComEd Exelon Generation Exelon Appendix • O&M and Capital Expenditure Expectations • Pennsylvania Legislative/Regulatory Snapshot • ComEd Transmission Settlement and Distribution Case Summaries • Gen
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Slide 5: Exelon Position, Macro Trends, Market Response
4 Exelon Position Macro Trends Market Response Energy dependency / geopolitical concerns Declining US reserve margins Environmental / climate change concerns Continued strong global growth in energy consumption Continued high fossil fuel prices Massive capital investment Increasing cost of new build
Slide 6: Exelon Is Uniquely Positioned for Continued Strong Value Creation
5 PECO ExGen ComEd PECO ExGen ExGen ComEd ~10%+ Compound Annual Growth Rate in EPS from 2007 to 2012 Operating EPS (3) : $2.41 Operating EPS Guidance (3) : $4.15 – $4.30 (1) Total Shareholder Return for the period 12/31/01 – 10/31/07. (2) ~65% EPS growth assumes $10/tonne carbon and equates to ~10%+
Slide 7: PECO
el => PECO. An Exelon Company ff
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Slide 9: ComEd
el ComEd. An Exelon Company ff
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Slide 11: Exelon Generation
_—_—lUl ee Exelwn. Generation ff
Slide 12: Exelon Generation
Exelon. Generation v v v v v v v
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Slide 15: Exelon Generation is the premier unregulated generation company
11 Average Capacity Factor Value Proposition Protect Value Grow Value Exelon Generation is the premier unregulated generation company – positioned to capture market opportunities and manage risk z Large, low-cost, low-emissions, exceptionally well-run nuclear fleet Complementary and flexible fossil
Slide 16: World-Class Nuclear Operator
12 Average Capacity Factor Range of Fleet 2-Yr Avg Capacity Factor (2002-2006) Sustained production excellence World-Class Nuclear Operator 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Exelon Industry Note: Exelon data prior to 2000 represent ComEd-only nuclear fleet. Sources: Platt’s, Nuclear News,
Slide 17: Positively Exposed to Market Dynamics
13 Reserve Margins Declining Natural Gas Prices Remaining High Carbon Legislation Progressing Construction Costs Escalating -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 PJM-West PJM-East NI-Hub ERCOT $5 $6 $7 $8 $9 $10 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 NYMEX Positively Expo
Slide 18: Nuclear is the least expensive generation option in a carbon-constrained environment
14 Excluding energy efficiency, nuclear is the least expensive generation option in a carbon-constrained environment Long-Run Marginal Cost of Electricity IGCC – No CO2 Recapture Pulverized Coal CCGT Nuclear CCGT = Combined Cycle Gas Turbine; IGCC = Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle CO2 Price (
Slide 19: Exelon Generation – Long-Term Value
15 Exelon Generation is poised for significant earnings growth driven by improving market fundamentals, the end of the Pennsylvania transition period, and carbon legislation Exelon Generation – Long-Term Value 2007 Guidance (1) 2012 2008 (1) 2007 Operating Earnings Guidance; see Appendix for reconci
Slide 20: Impact of Refueling Outages
16 Based on the refueling cycle, we will conduct 12 refueling outages in 2008, versus 9 in 2007, and 10 to 11 in a typical year Nuclear Refueling Cycle 2008 Refueling Outage Impact Refueling Outage Duration Nuclear Output 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Impact of Refueling Outages Note:
Slide 21: Effectively Managing Nuclear Fuel Costs
17 Components of Fuel Expense in 2007 Projected Total Nuclear Fuel Spend Projected Exelon Average Uranium Cost vs. Market Projected Exelon Uranium Demand 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Effectively Managing Nuclear Fuel Costs Enrichment 38% Fabrication 17%
Slide 22: Open EBITDA drives Exelon Generation's value
18 Un-hedged (“Open”) EBITDA plus upside from energy, capacity, and carbon drives Exelon Generation’s value Hedged – 2008 Un-Hedged – 2008 (1) Hedged – 2007 2008 Open EBITDA (1) Assumptions 2008 Open EBITDA (1) Sensitivities 2008 “Open” EBITDA 2008 EBITDA 2008 Open EBITDA (No Carbon) $ Millions ~$4,
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Slide 24: Exelon's Strategic Direction
20 Protect Today’s Value Grow Long-Term Value Exelon’s Strategic Direction Deliver superior operating performance Support competitive markets Protect the value of our generation Build healthy, self-sustaining delivery companies Take the organization to the next level of performance Advance an enviro
Slide 25: Advancing Exelon's Low-Carbon Strategy
21 Advancing Exelon’s Low-Carbon Strategy Advocating in favor of climate change legislation that is national, mandatory and economy-wide Taking voluntary action to reduce our greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 8% by 2008 (1) Continuing to invest in our low-carbon generation portfolio Developing a compre
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Slide 28: 2007 Exelon Investor Conference
24 2007 Exelon Investor Conference Conference Topics 2008 earnings guidance by operating company 2008 sources & uses of cash Operational & regulatory updates Strategic outlook The Waldorf Astoria New York, NY December 19 th Conference Agenda 7:15 AM: Registration & Breakfast 8:00 AM: Conference Prog
Slide 29: Exelon – Value Driven
25 With numerous forces driving the industry, Exelon is uniquely positioned for continued strong value creation Exelon – Value Driven Continued strong financial and operating performance >80% EPS from unregulated generation Largest, lowest-cost nuclear fleet in competitive markets Executing regulato
Slide 30: Exelon vision, goals and values
Exelwn. our vision Exelon will be the best group of electric generation and electric and gas delivery companies in the United States — providing superior value for our customers, employees, investors and the communities we serve. our goals > Keep the lights on and the gas flowing > Run the nuclear f
Slide 31: Appendix
27 Appendix
Slide 32: The Exelon Companies
28 ’06 Earnings (1) : $1,275M ’07E Earnings (2) : $2,320 - $2,385M ’06 EPS (1) : $1.88 ’07 EPS Guidance (2) : $3.45 - $3.55 Total Debt (3) : $1.8B Credit Rating (4) : BBB+ The Exelon Companies Nuclear, Fossil, Hydro & Renewable Generation Power Marketing ‘06 Operating Earnings (1) : $2.2B ‘07E Opera
Slide 33: Multi-Regional, Diverse Company
29 Multi-Regional, Diverse Company Note: Megawatts based on Generation’s ownership as of 10/1/07, using annual mean ratings for nuclear units (excluding Salem) and summer ratings for Salem and the fossil and hydro units; capacity excludes New Boston Unit and State Line PPA. Mid-Atlantic contracts in
Slide 34: Strong Financial Performance
30 YTD 2007 weather-normalized operating earnings are 29% higher than 2006 YTD ‘07 Highlights • Solid financial operating EPS results - Higher generation margins - Favorable weather - Strong nuclear performance • Illinois settlement • Value return plan implementation • ComEd regulatory recovery plan
Slide 35: Exelon
Exelon.
Slide 36: O&M and CapEx Expectations
32 Capital O&M O&M and CapEx Expectations Exelon (1) NM (2) 1-2% 3-4% NM (2) ~15% 2008-2012 CAGR $3,110 $390 $1,000 $870 $730 2008E $2,740 $350 $1,060 $720 $580 2007E Other Nuclear Fuel 2-3% 2-3% 2-3% 2-3% 2008-2012 CAGR $4,240 $650 $1,010 $2,620 2008E $4,090 $620 $1,030 $2,450 2007E Exelon (1) Note
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Slide 38: Exelon
Exelon.
Slide 39: PECO
el => PECO. An Exelon Company ff
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Slide 41: PECO Average Annual Rate Base
37 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 PECO Average Annual Rate Base 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.3 2.7 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E Gas CTC Electric Transmission Electric Distribution 6.9 6.3 5.8 5.2 4.9 5.0 ($ in Billions)
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Slide 45: Pennsylvania Snapshot
38 Current State of Play Position of Stakeholders PECO Actions Pennsylvania Snapshot Governor Rendell proposed an Energy Independence Strategy (EIS) in February 2007 Aimed at reducing energy costs, increasing clean energy sources, reducing reliance on foreign fuels and expanding energy production in
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Slide 47: ComEd
el ComEd. An Exelon Company ff
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Slide 49: Annual updating and true-up virtually eliminates regulatory lag
42 42 The combination of annual updating and true-up virtually eliminates regulatory lag Formula Transmission Rate Annual Update Process (1) Annual filing by May 15 th will update the current year revenue requirement and true-up prior year to actual: Update current year Estimate current year revenue
Slide 50: ComEd
ComEd. ‘An Exelon Company
Slide 51: ComEd Delivery Service Rate Case Filing
44 ComEd Delivery Service Rate Case Filing – Tentative Schedule Filed – October 17, 2007 Rebuttal Testimony – February 2008 Hearings – May 2008 Administrative Law Judge (ALJ) Order – July 2008 Final Order Expected – September 2008 Note: Dates are based on typical approach to rate cases but the Illin
Slide 52: Financial Swap Agreement
45 Financial Swap Agreement 3,000 $53.48 January 1, 2013 - May 31, 2013 3,000 $52.37 January 1, 2012 - December 31, 2012 3,000 $51.26 January 1, 2011 - December 31, 2011 3,000 $50.15 June 1, 2010 - December 31, 2010 2,000 $50.15 January 1, 2010 - May 31, 2010 2,000 $49.04 June 1, 2009 - December 31,
Slide 53: Exelon Generation
_—_—lUl ee Exelwn. Generation ff
Slide 54: Generation
_ULU Generation li
Slide 55: Total Portfolio Characteristics
48 40,900 41,100 31,600 33,800 Expected Total Supply (GWh) Expected Total Sales (GWh) The value of our portfolio resides in our nuclear fleet Total Portfolio Characteristics 23,300 23,100 5,100 126,500 120,000 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 2007 2008 Actual Hedges & Open Position ComEd Swap
Slide 56: Generation
— Generation : ee ee ee
Slide 57: Financial Swap Agreement
50 Financial Swap Agreement 3,000 $53.48 January 1, 2013 - May 31, 2013 3,000 $52.37 January 1, 2012 - December 31, 2012 3,000 $51.26 January 1, 2011 - December 31, 2011 3,000 $50.15 June 1, 2010 - December 31, 2010 2,000 $50.15 January 1, 2010 - May 31, 2010 2,000 $49.04 June 1, 2009 - December 31,
Slide 58: PJM RPM Auction Results
51 2009 / 2010 2008 / 2009 2007 / 2008 PJM RPM Auction Results ($/MW-day) Reliability Pricing Model Auction 40.80 197.67 111.92 148.80 102.04 191.32 191.32 Rest of Market Eastern MAAC MAAC + APS 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 1,500 MW N/A N/A N/A N/A MAAC + APS (7) 9,750 - 9,950 MW (3) 9,500 MW 9,550
Slide 59: Exelon Generation
Exelon. Generation (UMS) 22Ud OLY Ul eseesoUl (SUOMI! $) ewi0dUT XeI-e1d SUEDX Ul eSee1U|
Slide 60: Required Break-Even Cost by Technology
53 Required Break-Even Cost by Technology (Illustrative) Nuclear Coal Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Combined Cycle Gas Turbine In 2008$ CO2 @ $10/tonne Fixed / Variable Cost Recovery Note: See following page for assumptions. Break-even price determined by using mid-point of capital cost. (1
Slide 61: Required Break-Even Cost – Illustrative Assumptions
54 Required Break-Even Cost by Technology – Illustrative Assumptions Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) Coal (Pulverized) Nuclear (Dual-Unit) Assumption Construction time (years) Permitting time (years) CO2 - $/tonne 2008 Market fuel cost (held flat for f
Slide 62: Exelon Nuclear Fleet Overview
55 Exelon Nuclear Fleet Overview 2011 42.6% Exelon, 56.4 % PSEG 2016, 2020 (1) W PWR Salem, NJ Life of plant capacity 100% AmerGen 2014; renewal to be filed 2008 B&W PWR TMI-1, PA Dry cask 100% AmerGen 2009; renewal filed 2005 GE BWR Oyster Creek, NJ Dry cask 50% Exelon, 50% PSEG Renewed: 2033, 2034
Slide 63: Exelon Generation
Exelon. Generation J v J _ ¥
Slide 64: Announced Nuclear Projects
57 21 projects totaling ~39,000 MWs have been announced Announced Nuclear Projects Announced intent Greenfield San Joaquin Valley CA EPR Fresno Nuclear Energy Announced intent Greenfield Bruneau ID EPR Alternative Energy Hldings Letter of intent Operating Turkey Pt FL TBD TBD FPL Letter of intent Op
Slide 65: Advanced Nuclear Designs – U.S. Market
58 Advanced Nuclear Designs – U.S. Market Luminant (formerly TXU) Will apply for design certification in 2008 1700 MW Mitsubishi APWR (Advanced PWR) NRG Evolutionary improvement from current BWR. Design certification in 1997. In operation in Japan since 1996. 1350 MW GE-Hitachi ABWR (Advanced BWR) U
Slide 66: Roadmap to Nuclear Commercial Operation
59 1 2 3 Building a new nuclear plant is not a one-step process or decision: It is a sequence of 3 successive decisions Years (estimates) First Decision: File an application for a COL Second Decision: Procure major long-lead procurement components and commodities Third Decision: Proceed with constru
Slide 67: Uranium Price Volatility
60 Long-term Uranium Price Trend Seven-Month Uranium Price Trend Long-term equilibrium price expected to be $40-$60/lb Uranium Price Volatility Spring 2003 McArthur River flood December 2003 GNSS/Tenex termination; ConverDyn UF6 release and shutdown Early 2004 ERA / Ranger water problems Early 2006
Slide 68: Current Market Prices
61 Current Market Prices 1. 2004, 2005 and 2006 are actual settled prices. 2. Real Time LMP (Locational Marginal Price). 3. Next day over-the-counter market. 4. Average NYMEX settled prices. 5. 2007 information is a combination of actual prices through 10/31/07 and market prices for the balance of t
Slide 69: Market Price Snapshot
62 62 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.1 1/2/07 2/2/07 3/2/07 4/2/07 5/2/07 6/2/07 7/2/07 8/2/07 9/2/07 10/2/07 1/2/07 2/2/07 3/2/07 4/2/07 5/2/07 6/2/07 7/2/07 8/2/07 9/2/07 10/2/07 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.2 9.4 1/2/07 2/2/07 3/2/07 4/2/07 5/2/07 6/2/07 7/2/07 8/2/07 9/2/07 10/2/07 Marke
Slide 70: Market Price Snapshot
63 63 1/2/07 2/2/07 3/2/07 4/2/07 5/2/07 6/2/07 7/2/07 8/2/07 9/2/07 10/2/07 1/2/07 2/2/07 3/2/07 4/2/07 5/2/07 6/2/07 7/2/07 8/2/07 9/2/07 10/2/07 1/2/07 2/2/07 3/2/07 4/2/07 5/2/07 6/2/07 7/2/07 8/2/07 9/2/07 10/2/07 1/2/07 2/2/07 3/2/07 4/2/07 5/2/07 6/2/07 7/2/07 8/2/07 9/2/07 10/2/07 Market Pri
Slide 71: Market Price Snapshot
64 64 1/2/07 2/2/07 3/2/07 4/2/07 5/2/07 6/2/07 7/2/07 8/2/07 9/2/07 10/2/07 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 1/2/07 2/2/07 3/2/07 4/2/07 5/2/07 6/2/07 7/2/07 8/2/07 9/2/07 10/2/07 1/2/07 2/2/07 3/2/07 4/2/07 5/2/07 6/2/07 7/2/07 8/2/07 9/2/07 10/2/07 7.5 8.5 1/2/07 2/2/07 3/2/07 4/2/07 5/2/07 6/2/07 7/2
Slide 72: Market Price Snapshot ERCOT
65 65 1/2/07 2/2/07 3/2/07 4/2/07 5/2/07 6/2/07 7/2/07 8/2/07 9/2/07 10/2/07 Market Price Snapshot ERCOT North On-Peak Forward Prices 2008 2009 As of October 31, 2007. Source: OTC quotes and electronic trading system. Quotes are daily.
Slide 73: Exelon – Climate Change
66 Exelon – Climate Change
Slide 74: Recognized Environmental Leadership
67 Recognized Environmental Leadership Named to the 2006/2007 and 2007/2008 Dow Jones Sustainability North America Index Named to Climate Disclosure Leadership Index of the Carbon Disclosure Project in 2005, 2006 and 2007 Signatory to the Global Roundtable on Climate Change and the Ceres/Investor Ne
Slide 75: Exelon's Climate Actions
68 Committed to going beyond world-class nuclear performance and compliance with regulations, Exelon is taking voluntary action to address climate change Exelon’s Climate Actions Achieved SF6 leak rate of under 10% for 2006 Provides customer-based energy-efficiency programs (compact fluorescent ligh
Slide 76: Exelon and Federal Climate Change Legislation
69 Exelon and Federal Climate Change Legislation Actively involved in the climate debate in Washington, D.C. Lobbying in favor of enacting legislation that is national , mandatory and economy - wide Favors a cap-and-trade system over a carbon tax Believes that any allocation scheme should include al
Slide 77: Comparison of Economy-wide Cap-and-Trade Emissions Targets
70 Comparison of Economy-wide Cap-and-Trade Emissions Targets Includes Legislation Introduced in the 110th Congress as of September 2007 Reduction Goals 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Historical U.S. emissions (EPA, 1990-
Slide 78: CO2 Reductions Demand Multiple Generation Technologies
71 To stabilize emissions at 1990 levels, multiple technologies and intensive R&D will be required Technology CO2 Reductions Demand Multiple Generation Technologies Source: Electric Power Research Institute EIA Base Case 2007 The technical potential exists for the U.S. electricity sector to signific
Slide 79: Key Climate Bills
72 Key Climate Bills Several bills and white papers and drafts are gaining support in Washington: • Bingaman-Specter (S. 1766, the Low Carbon Economy Act of 2007) Economy-wide: All major GHG producing sectors o Point of regulation: Oil and natural gas refineries and coal-fired generators Increasing
Slide 80: Credit Measures & GAAP Reconciliation
73 Key Assumptions, Projected 2007 Credit Measures & GAAP Reconciliation
Slide 81: Exelon's balance sheet is strong
74 Exelon’s balance sheet is strong Projected 2007 Key Credit Measures 62% – 52% 52% 53% Rating Agency Debt Ratio Adjusted Book Debt Ratio: 49% 12% – 20% 18% 17% FFO / Debt 2.5x – 3.5x A 4.4x 4.4x FFO / Interest PECO: 52% – 42% 58% 61% Rating Agency Debt Ratio Adjusted Book Debt Ratio: 43% 25% – 40%
Slide 82: FFO Calculation and Ratios
75 FFO Calculation and Ratios (updated) FFO Calculation = FFO - PECO Transition Bond Principal Paydown + Gain on Sale, Extraordinary Items and Other Non-Cash Items (3) + Change in Deferred Taxes + Depreciation, amortization (including nucl fuel amortization), AFUDC/Cap. Interest Add back non-cash it
Slide 83: GAAP EPS Reconciliation 2000-2002
76 GAAP EPS Reconciliation 2000-2002 2000 GAAP Reported EPS $1.44 Change in common shares (0.53) Extraordinary items (0.04) Cumulative effect of accounting change -- Unicom pre-merger results 0.79 Merger-related costs 0.34 Pro forma merger accounting adjustments (0.07) 2000 Adjusted (non-GAAP) Opera
Slide 84: GAAP EPS Reconciliation 2003-2004
77 2004 GAAP Reported EPS $2.78 Charges associated with debt repurchases 0.12 Investments in synthetic fuel-producing facilities (0.10) Employee severance costs 0.07 Cumulative effect of adopting FIN 46-R (0.05) Settlement associated with the storage of spent nuclear fuel (0.04) Boston Generating 20
Slide 85: GAAP Earnings Reconciliation
78 GAAP Earnings Reconciliation Year Ended December 31, 2006 - - - Impairment of ComEd’s goodwill (52) - - (52) - Recovery of debt costs at ComEd (89) - - - (89) Nuclear decommissioning obligation reduction (95) - - (95) - Recovery of severance costs at ComEd $(83) - - $(144) Other $2,175 (58) $1,59
Slide 86: GAAP EPS Reconciliation
79 GAAP EPS Reconciliation Year Ended December 31, 2006 $3.22 (0.11) 0.67 $0.78 $1.88 2006 Adjusted (non-GAAP) Operating EPS $2.35 (0.21) 0.65 (0.17) $2.08 2006 GAAP Reported EPS - - - - - 0.05 0.04 - Other (1) (0.14) 1.15 (0.08) - 0.01 0.01 - - ComEd (1) - - - (0.13) 0.01 0.01 - (0.09) ExGen (1) -
Slide 87: GAAP EPS Reconciliation
80 GAAP EPS Reconciliation Nine Months Ended September 30, 2006 $2.50 Q3 2006 YTD Adjusted (non-GAAP) Operating EPS (0.08) Recovery of debt costs at ComEd 1.15 Impairment of ComEd's goodwill 0.02 Severance charges (0.13) Nuclear decommissioning obligation reduction 0.09 Charges related to now termin
Slide 88: GAAP EPS Reconciliation
81 GAAP EPS Reconciliation Nine Months Ended September 30, 2007 $3.31 Q3 2007 YTD Adjusted (non-GAAP) Operating EPS (0.01) Sale of Generation's investments in TEG and TEP 0.14 2007 Illinois electric rate settlement (0.01) Settlement of a tax matter at Generation related to Sithe (0.03) Nuclear decom
Slide 89: 2007/2008 Earnings Outlook
82 2007/2008 Earnings Outlook Exelon’s outlook for 2007/2008 adjusted (non-GAAP) operating earnings excludes the earnings impacts of the following: • mark-to-market adjustments from economic hedging activities • significant impairments of intangible assets, including goodwill • significant changes i
Slide 90: Reconciliation of Net Income to EBITDA
83 Net income (loss) +/- Cumulative effect of changes in accounting principle +/- Discontinued operations +/- Minority interest + Income taxes Income (loss) from continuing operations before income taxes and minority interest + Interest expense + Interest expense to affiliates - Interest income from
Slide 91: Exelon Investor Relations Contacts
84 Exelon Investor Relations Contacts Inquiries concerning this presentation should be directed to: Exelon Investor Relations 10 South Dearborn Street Chicago, Illinois 60603 312-394-2345 312-394-4082 (Fax) For copies of other presentations, annual/quarterly reports, or to be added to our email dist