Orlen Spolka Akcyjna · GPW:PKN
Orlen Spolka Akcyjna — Grupa LOTOS — Q3 2016 Earnings Presentation
27 slides from Orlen Spolka Akcyjna's earnings presentation, Oct 27, 2016
Slide 1: LOTOS Group 3Q 2016 consolidated financial results
LOTOS Group 3Q 2016 consolidated financial results October 27, 2016 1
Slide 2: Agenda
1 Key highlights 3-6 2 External environment 7 - 11 3 Upstream 12 - 16 4 Downstream 17 - 21 5 Consolidated financial results 22 - 26 2
Slide 3: Key highlights
Ss LOTOS Pe Key highlights
Slide 4: Key Highlights 3Q 2016
Key Highlights 3Q 2016 y/y % change EBITDA Clean(1) EBITDA PLN m Clean EBITDA reported LIFO LIFO Consolidated 670 641 + 5% upstream 103 117 +29% downstream 568 525 +1% Operating cash flow 1 177 m PLN (+108% y/y) Crude oil throughput 2 716 k tons (+2.5% y/y) Upstream production(2) 28 696 boe/d (+144%
Slide 5: Key Highlights – Clean EBITDA LIFO and key macro factors
Key Highlights – Clean EBITDA LIFO and key macro factors On the continuous path of operational result improvement despite deteriorating macro environment m PLN 2 156 109 99 (1) 1 739 (1) 8,29 1 669 7,77 1 391 (1) 6,34 (2) (1) 6,08 5,70 1 091 1 779 1 265 875 1 359 58 52 796 42 505 339 469 304 269 201
Slide 6: Financial highlights – CAPEX vs Operating Cash Flow
Financial highlights – CAPEX vs Operating Cash Flow Generating sufficient cash flow to finance the development program m PLN 2127 1416 1488 1347 1381 902 1420 1132 980 962 710 814 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 9M 2016 CAPEX Operating Cash Flow 6
Slide 7: External environment
Ss LOTOS ey External environment
Slide 8: External environment - crude oil prices and natural gas prices
External environment - crude oil prices and natural gas prices USD/boe USD/bbl 60 57 9 55 48 8 48 47 48 47 50 47 45 46 44 7 45 42 38 38 38 40 6 34 35 34 35 32 30 31 5 29 27 30 26 25 24 23 23 25 22 4 25 21 20 3 15 2 10 3,16 2,85 2,73 2,55 2,34 2,68 2,58 2,70 2,69 2,64 2,44 2,17 1 5 1,25 1,52 1,47 0 0
Slide 9: External environment - key product crack spreads
External environment - key product crack spreads USD/bbl 30 27,2 25,2 25 17,7 19,2 19,3 20 17,7 18,0 17,4 16,2 15,9 14,7 16,0 15,2 12,9 13,3 15 12,2 16,6 11,5 15,4 16,6 14,5 10 12,3 13,3 12,2 13,0 11,7 11,7 11,5 11,7 11,8 5 0 -6,3 -8,3 -7,7 -8,0 -9,3 -10,4 -9,4 -10,7 -11,8 -10,5 -10 -12,0 -11,9 -13,
Slide 10: Model refining margin vs. peers
Model refining margin vs. peers (1) (1) (2) USD/bbl LOTOS PKN ERMI 12.00 11.40 10.00 8.00 7.45 8.60 8.20 8.00 6.00 5.18 6.60 4.77 4.76 4.00 3.46 7.41 6.21 6.51 6.49 6.00 2.00 0.00 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 (1) Source: Company data; based on websites of the companies; LOTOS methodology explained on sl
Slide 11: External environment – GDP growth, FX development & domestic fuel consumption
External environment – GDP growth, FX development & domestic fuel consumption (1) % Polish GDP growth mln m3 Diesel consumption (4) 3.8 3.9 4.4 3.5 3.3 3.9 3.8 3.1 3.1 3.7 3.7 3.6 (2) 2Q 2015 3Q 2015 4Q 2015 1Q 2016 2Q 2016 3Q 2016 2Q 2015 3Q 2015 4Q 2015 1Q 2016 2Q 2016 3Q 2016 (3) (4) USD/PLN mln
Slide 12: Upstream
Ss LOTOS iy Upstream 12
Slide 13: Hydrocarbons reserves and production figures
Hydrocarbons reserves and production figures Average daily oil&gas production (boe/d)(1) 2P(2) oil&gas reserves (m boe) 28 555 61.8 28 696 59.7 1 111 1 074 6.9 6.6 51.8 5 595 5 463 7.3 39.6 39.1 11 740 1 278 21 849 22 159 41.1 3 232 7 230 15.4 14.0 3.5 3Q'15 2Q'16 3Q'16 Sep 15 Jun 16 Sep 16 Norway P
Slide 14: Quarterly sales split by products and countries
Quarterly sales split by products and countries Ths boe 3Q 2016 3Q 2015 2Q 2016 1 791 (1) (1) 74% 1 084 (1) 601 73% 500 443 (1) 72% 3% 3% 206 9% 91 91 92 Norway Poland Lithuania Norway Poland Lithuania Norway Poland Lithuania Crude Oil Natural Gas (1) share of natural gas in total sales (in %) 14
Slide 15: Upstream: quarterly clean EBITDA
Upstream: quarterly clean EBITDA m PLN +29% 197 91 117 Clean EBITDA 3Q 2015 Clean EBITDA 2Q 2016 Clean EBITDA 3Q 2016 17 14 83 -58 -138 91 197 117 -115 74 33 103 59 114 2 (1) (1) (1) EBITDA One offs Clean Depreciation Clean EBIT EBITDA One offs Clean Depreciation Clean EBIT EBITDA One offs Clean Dep
Slide 16: Upstream: cumulative 9 month clean EBITDA
Upstream: cumulative 9 month clean EBITDA m PLN +74% 469 269 Clean EBITDA 9M 2015 Clean EBITDA 9M 2016 17 102 190 395 252 269 469 79 367 74 (1) (1) EBITDA 9M 15 One offs Clean EBITDA Depreciation Clean EBIT EBITDA 9M 16 One offs Clean EBITDA Depreciation Clean EBIT 9M 15 9M 15 9M 16 9M 16 (1) Assets
Slide 17: Downstream
Ss LOTOS Downstream 17
Slide 18: Refinery production - volumes, throughput & utilisation rate
Refinery production - volumes of key products, crude oil throughput & utilisation rate k tons Oil throughput (k tons) Refinery utilisation (%) 120% 3 600 100% 100% 103% 110% 97% 99% 3 200 93% 100% Crude oil throughput at 2 716 k tons, 2 628 2 651 2 555 2 716 90% with capacity utilisation rate at c.1
Slide 19: Retail performance and domestic fuel sales
Retail performance and domestic fuel sales Quarterly retail EBITDA(1) Petrol stations network (no. of units) Quarterly retail sales volumes(1) m PLN k tons +29% r/r +13% r/r 478 480 198 198 62 365 48 324 336 280 282 27 3Q 2015 2Q 2016 3Q 2016 Jun 2016 Sep 2016 3Q 2015 2Q 2016 3Q 2016 Premium Optima
Slide 20: Downstream: Quarterly clean EBITDA LIFO
Downstream : Quarterly clean EBITDA LIFO m PLN +47% 519 525 357 Clean EBITDA 3Q 2015 Clean EBITDA 2Q 2016 Clean EBITDA 3Q 2016 -7 -12 -17 -11 -14 161 -327 37 519 704 -7 568 525 318 357 10 (4) (1) (2) (3) EBITDA LIFO effect LIFO FX (3) Clean LIFO EBITDA LIFO effect LIFO (4) FX (3) Clean LIFO EBITDA L
Slide 21: Downstream: Cumulative 9 month clean EBITDA LIFO
Downstream : Cumulative 9 month clean EBITDA LIFO m PLN -7% 1 359 1 265 Clean EBITDA 9M 2015 Clean EBITDA 9M 2016 -1 163 -63 161 -387 272 -24 1 359 1 513 990 1 265 (1) (2) (3) (4) (3) EBITDA 9M 15 LIFO effect LIFO inventory One offs FX differences Clean EBITDA EBITDA 9M 16 LIFO effect LIFO inventory
Slide 22: Consolidated financial results
Consolidated financial results 22
Slide 23: Decomposition of consolidated quarterly operational results
Decomposition of consolidated quarterly operational results 3Q 2016 m PLN 238 -17 -15 3 641 432 403 (1) EBIT LIFO effect FX differences One offs (2) Clean EBIT LIFO Depreciation Clean EBITDA LIFO 3Q 2015 176 215 609 433 -7 318 -94 (1) (3) EBIT LIFO effect FX differences One offs Clean EBIT LIFO Depr
Slide 24: Decomposition of consolidated 9 month cumulative operational results
Decomposition of consolidated 9 month cumulative operational results 9M 2016 m PLN 760 163 -24 -285 1 734 1 120 974 (1) (2) EBIT LIFO effect FX differences One offs Clean EBIT LIFO Depreciation Clean EBITDA LIFO 9M 2015 540 115 272 -1 1 669 1 129 743 (1) (3) EBIT LIFO effect FX differences One offs
Slide 25: Quarterly operating cash flows and CAPEX
Quartely operating cash flows and CAPEX Operating cash flows CAPEX m PLN m PLN 325 308 289 100 83 77 1 176 (1) (1) (2) (3) 225 212 225 564 631 402 319 3Q 15 4Q 15 1Q 16 2Q 16 3Q 16 1Q 2016 2Q 2016 3Q 2016 upstream downstream (1) Including EFRA Programme – PLN 189m (2) Including EFRA Programme – PLN
Slide 26: Debt
Debt (2) (1) Net debt Gearing ratio Net debt/LTM clean EBITDA LIFO 74% 5 701 67% 2.6x 5 366 2.5x 4 401 52% 2.0x Dec 2015 Jun 2016 Sep 2016 Dec 2015 Jun 2016 Sep 2016 Dec 2015 Jun 2016 Sep 2016 Net debt figures include: interest bearing loans and borrowings, finance lease and bonds less cash&cash e
Slide 27: Grupa LOTOS S.A. Investor Relations
Grupa LOTOS S.A. Investor Relations tel. +48 58 308 73 93 fax +48 58 346 22 35 e-mail ir@grupalotos.pl Twitter : @GrupaLOTOS 27