Vistra Corp. · NYSE:VST
Vistra — Investor Presentation (December 2024)
39 slides from Vistra's investor presentation, December 2024
Slide 1: Investor Presentation
Investor Presentation December 2024 1
Slide 2: Safe Harbor Statements
Safe Harbor Statements Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements The information presented herein includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements, which are based on current expectations, esti
Slide 3: Vistra Overview
Vistra Overview 3 Vistra Investor Presentation / December 2024
Slide 4: America's Leading Integrated Energy Company
America’s Leading Integrated Energy Company Products and services in 18 states and Washington D.C. covering all major competitive markets in the U.S. Generation • Largest competitive power generator in the U.S. at ~41,000 MW • Second largest competitive nuclear power fleet in the U.S. • Owns and ope
Slide 5: Our Four Strategic Priorities Guide Execution
Our Four Strategic Priorities Guide Execution Balancing operational and financial risk with capital return and sustainable energy transition Integrated Disciplined Resilient Strategic Business Model Capital Allocation Balance Sheet Energy Transition Strong operating performance in Expect to execute
Slide 6: Long-term Earnings Outlook
Long-term Earnings Outlook Integrated model driving increasing visibility and profitability in out years Comprehensive hedging program provides increased visibility3 Long-term Earnings Outlook • Adjusted EBITDA1,2 ($ in millions) • ~100% hedged for remainder of 2024 • ~96% hedged for 2025 , 00 ,000
Slide 7: Nuclear Production Tax Credit (PTC) Overview
Nuclear Production Tax Credit (PTC) Overview1 ’ v ii yd i gp i d f p pi f g i Illustrative Revenue Support PTC Mechanism2 • The nuclear PTC is a tax credit of up to $15/MWh • When gross receipts exceed $25/MWh, the PTC amount is reduced by i 80% of gross receipts exceeding $25/MWh Thresholds at whic
Slide 8: Balanced Approach to Capital Allocation
Balanced Approach to Capital Allocation1 Third quarter update reveals balanced approach to shareholder return, financial leverage, and growth • Executed ~$4.6 billion in share repurchases from Nov. 2021 through Nov. 4, 2024 at an average price below $29/share • On Oct. 30, 2024, the board authorized
Slide 9: New Demand Paradigm in Power Markets
New Demand Paradigm in Power Markets Multiple demand drivers for accelerating load growth projections in the geographic regions we serve U.S. Data Centers1 Actual and Projected Peak Demand3 Demand (GW) Demand (GW) 0.9% CAGR ~1.8% CAGR PJM 2024 (1.8%) +55 GW PJM 2023 (0.9%) ERCOT July. 2024 (50% Real
Slide 10: Retirements of Thermal Generation Driving Larger Supply Gaps
Retirements of Thermal Generation Driving Larger Supply Gaps Policy-driven retirements coupled with demand will highlight the value of dispatchable assets PJM Supply / Demand 2024-20301 ERCOT Supply / Demand 2024-20302 Peak Load (GW) Peak Load (GW) 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 ~40 GW 110 ~40 GW 1 0 Potential
Slide 11: Load Growth Expectations are Materializing
Load Growth Expectations are Materializing Industrial and manufacturing activity are key drivers of year-to-date growth in our core markets Oil and Gas2 Semiconductor3 PJM / ERCOT Actual and Projected Demand Peak Load (GW)1 Austin, Sept. 26, 2024 – The Public April 15, 2024 – …The U.S. Department Ut
Slide 12: Large Interconnection Queues Across all ISOs
Large Interconnection Queues Across all ISOs Current interconnect queues dominated by intermittent resources 320 324 312 310 306 308 284 16 16 16 1 12 13 14 13 200 212 110 111 111 136 138 138 127 158 6 8 2 79 38 39 40 90 23 27 29 91 20 96 58 21 3 14 43 1 15 27 37 135 140 140 36 145 146 147 6 124 0 1
Slide 13: Not all MW are Created Equal
Not all MW are Created Equal To power 200,000 homes reliably significant trade-offs exist when comparing renewables to gas generation • To power 200,000 homes reliably would require either: 1,000 MW of modern 9,000MW of renewable energy • 1,000 MW modern gas plant efficient gas plant (Wind + Solar +
Slide 14: Not all MW are Created Equal
Not all MW are Created Equal Example of 9,000 MW of installed renewables represents a significant commitment of dedicated land About 60% of land in Dallas 1.7x the size of Philadelphia Philadelphia Dallas Estimated land required for 9,000MW of renewables. 147,540 acres (230sq. miles) 14 Vistra Inves
Slide 15: Higher ERCOT Renewable Capacity May Not Be Available
Higher ERCOT Renewable Capacity May Not Be Available Renewables growth has been strong in Texas but performs significantly below headline capacity Renewable Generation Renewable Capacity Factors by Season ERCOT Nameplate Capacity (GW) ERCOT Effective Capacity (GW) ~4.5x -55% -79% p pi g i i d i d So
Slide 16: Dispatchable Assets Are Essential for Reliability
Dispatchable Assets Are Essential for Reliability Gas plants fill the reliability gap even in markets with high renewables penetration like ERCOT ERCOT generation during Winter Storm Elliott ERCOT generation during Winter Storm Mara MWh per hour MWh per hour 70,000 70,000 60,000 60,000 50,000 50,000
Slide 17: Reliability, Affordability, and Sustainability
Reliability, Affordability, and Sustainability 17 Vistra Investor Presentation / December 2024
Slide 18: Environmental Stewardship
Environmental Stewardship Vistra’s GHG targets emphasize an energy transition that balances reliability and affordability of power EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS1 PORTFOLIO TRANSFORMATION2 Scope 1 and Scope 2 Emissions SO2 Emissions ~15,150 MW Zero Carbon Capacity MW (Million mtCO2e) (‘000s mt) fossil generat
Slide 19: Social Responsibility & Governance
Social Responsibility & Governance Vistra’s Purpose: Lighting up lives, powering a better way forward PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES GOVERNANCE Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion • Oversight of Vistra’s ESG initiatives is governed by the full Vistra board, with oversight of subject matter-specific components
Slide 20: Vistra Zero Portfolio and Development Pipeline
Vistra Zero Portfolio and Development Pipeline Effective September 30, 2024 DeCordova Energy Moss Landing Energy Storage Facility Storage Facility 260 MW/260 MWh 750 MW/3,000 MWh 350 MW/1,400 MWh expansion came Battery + CT Hybrid online in June 2023 20 Vistra Investor Presentation / December 2024
Slide 21: Vistra Zero Portfolio and Development Pipeline
Vistra Zero Portfolio and Development Pipeline Effective September 30, 2024 Online Assets Location ISO In-Service Year Net Capacity (MW) Development Pipeline Location ISO Status, In-Service Year Net Capacity (MW) Beaver Valley I & II Shippingport, PA PJM 1976 / 1987 1,872 Baldwin Baldwin, IL MISO In
Slide 22: Clean Technologies Have Incentives But are Still Under Development
Clean Technologies Have Incentives But are Still Under Development While many technologies hold promise – reliability and affordability will remain important criteria SMR Nuclear Hydrogen Long Duration Energy Technology Storage Design flexibility and Could be a form of energy Can help shape the modu
Slide 23: Appendix
Appendix 23 Vistra Investor Presentation / December 2024
Slide 24: Corporate Debt Profile Q3 2024
Corporate Debt Profile Q3 2024 Vistra remains committed to a long-term net leverage target below 3x1 Balances ($ in millions) Q3 2024 Funded Revolving Credit Facilities $0 Vistra Operations Term Loan B 2,481 Senior Secured Notes 3,894 Senior Unsecured Notes 7,300 2 Revenue Bond Obligations 431 Accou
Slide 25: Select Debt Balances Q3 2024
Select Debt Balances Q3 2024 Principal outstanding for secured and unsecured debt issued from Vistra Operations Vistra Operations Secured Debt ($ in millions) Q3 2024 Senior Secured Term Loan B-3 due December 2030 $2,481 5.125% Senior Secured Notes due May 2025 744 3.700% Senior Secured Notes due Ja
Slide 26: Retail Overview Q3 2024
Retail Overview Q3 2024 Continued delivery of strong margin and count results driving consistent Adj. EBITDA performance Highlights • Grew residential customer count organically in the quarter and year-over-year • Total residential count at quarter end increased 13% YoY driven by organic growth, the
Slide 27: Generation Metrics
Generation Metrics Effective September 30, 2024 Total Generation (TWh) Q3 2023 Q3 2024 YTD 2023 YTD 2024 CCGT Capacity Factor (%) Q3 2023 Q3 2024 YTD 2023 YTD 2024 Texas 27.8 26.8 65.8 66.1 Texas 77% 78% 57% 61% East 17.0 25.8 45.5 62.7 East 69% 71% 63% 61% West 1.4 1.0 3.7 2.9 West 65% 44% 56% 44%
Slide 28: Capital Expenditures Q3 2024
Capital Expenditures1 Q3 2024 Category ($ in millions) 2023A 2024E 2025E 2,3 Nuclear & Fossil Maintenance $730 $808 ~$875 Nuclear Fuel 206 361 ~300 4 Non-Recurring 8 13 - 5 Solar & Energy Storage Development 550 707 ~725 6 Other Growth 120 164 ~325 Total Capital Expenditures $1,614 $2,053 ~$2,225 4
Slide 29: Comprehensive Hedging Program Overview
Comprehensive Hedging Program Overview Effective September 30, 2024 Balance of 2024 2025 Texas West East Sunset Total Texas West East Sunset Total Nuclear/Renewable/Coal Gen Position Expected Generation (TWh) 12 8 8 28 48 32 25 106 % Hedged 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 66% 90% 88% Sensitivity to Power P
Slide 30: Forward Market Pricing
Forward Market Pricing Effective September 30, 2024 2024 2025 2026 2024 2025 2026 Power (ATC, $/MWh) Spark Spreads (ATC, $/MWh) ERCOT North Hub $34.77 $48.39 $47.15 ERCOT West Hub $40.48 $51.65 $50.48 Texas cont. PJM AD Hub $39.69 $42.08 $44.10 ERCOT North Hub-Houston Ship Channel 90% $12.98 $23.77
Slide 31: Capacity Positions
Capacity Positions Effective September 30, 2024 Tenor Zone Position (MW) Average Price ($/MW-day) Tenor Zone Position (MW) Avg. Price ($/KW-mo) East East 2024/2025 PJM - RTO 5,170 $34.30 Summer 2024 NYISO 982 $3.90 2024/2025 PJM - ComEd 1,373 $32.45 Winter 24/25 NYISO 1,002 $3.07 2024/2025 PJM - DEO
Slide 32: Asset Fleet Details
Asset Fleet Details Effective September 30, 2024 Asset Location ISO Technology Primary Fuel Net Capacity (MW) Ennis Ennis, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 366 Forney Forney, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,912 Hays San Marcos, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,047 Lamar Paris, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,076 Midlothian Midlothian, TX ERCOT CCGT G
Slide 33: Asset Fleet Details
Asset Fleet Details Effective September 30, 2024 Asset Location ISO Technology Primary Fuel Net Capacity (MW) Independence Oswego, NY NYISO CCGT Gas 1,212 Bellingham Bellingham, MA ISO-NE CCGT Gas 566 Blackstone Blackstone, MA ISO-NE CCGT Gas 544 Casco Bay Veazie, ME ISO-NE CCGT Gas 543 Lake Road Da
Slide 34: Non-GAAP Reconciliations
Non-GAAP Reconciliations 34 Vistra Investor Presentation / December 2024
Slide 35: Non-GAAP Reconciliations
Non-GAAP Reconciliations 2024 Guidance (Unaudited, Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Operations Asset Closure Vistra Corp. Consolidated Low High Low High Low High Net Income (loss) $2,750 $2,910 $(80) $(80) $2,670 $2,830 Income tax expense 740 780 0 0 740 780 Interest expense and related charges (a) 980
Slide 36: Non-GAAP Reconciliations
Non-GAAP Reconciliations 2024 Guidance (Unaudited, Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Operations Asset Closure Vistra Corp. Consolidated Low High Low High Low High Adjusted EBITDA guidance $5,000 $5,200 $(85) $(85) $4,915 $5,115 Interest paid, net (941) (941) 0 0 (941) (941) Tax (paid) / received (66) (66
Slide 37: Non-GAAP Reconciliations
Non-GAAP Reconciliations 2025 Guidance (Unaudited, Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Operations Asset Closure Vistra Corp. Consolidated Low High Low High Low High Net Income (loss) $2,310 $2,780 $(90) $(90) $2,220 $2,690 Income tax expense 620 750 0 0 620 750 Interest expense and related charges (a) 1,07
Slide 38: Non-GAAP Reconciliations
Non-GAAP Reconciliations 2025 Guidance (Unaudited, Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Operations Asset Closure Vistra Corp. Consolidated Low High Low High Low High Adjusted EBITDA guidance $5,500 $6,100 $(90) $(90) $5,410 $6,010 Interest paid, net (1,098) (1,098) 0 0 (1,098) (1,098) Tax (paid) / received
Slide 39: Lighting up lives, powering a better way forward
Lighting up lives, powering a better way forward 39 Vistra Investor Presentation / December 2024