Selvaag Bolig Asa · OSL:SBO
Selvaag Bolig Asa — Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation
76 slides from Selvaag Bolig Asa's earnings presentation, Nov 11, 2021
Slide 1: Q3 2021
Q3 2021 Oslo, 11 November 2021 Sverre Molvik, CEO Christopher Brunvoll, CFO
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda Highlights Operational update Financial update Market Outlook and summary 2
Slide 3: Highlights Q3
Highlights Q3 · Solid revenues and high margins · Units sold first 9 months up 13% year over year · Solid pipeline for coming quarters Completed, ongoing and upcoming projects 3
Slide 4: Key financials Q3 2021
Key financials Q3 2021 887 25.0 Operating revenues Adjusted EBITDA* margin NOK million Per cent 774 14.8 Operating revenues (NGAAP) EBITDA** margin (NGAAP) NOK million Per cent * EBITDA is profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. EBITDA adjusted is excluding financial expenses i
Slide 5: Agenda
Agenda Highlights Operational update Financial update Market Outlook and summary
Slide 6: Sales value and units sold
Sales value and units sold Sales value Number of units sold per quarter NOK million Units 1 242 1 010 910 871 Q4 634 159 182 125 Q3 178 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.1 178 Q2 Q1 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total sales value Average sales value 9M sales 533 547 612 484 546 Note: Sales
Slide 7: Rolling sales value and units sold
Rolling sales value and units sold Sales value 12-month rolling Units sold 12-month rolling NOK million Units 4 034 894 888 3 859 3 757 816 826 3 457 760 3 151 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.0 767 798 745 683 624 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Total sales value Average sales value *T
Slide 8: Construction starts and completions
Construction starts and completions Construction starts and completions per quarter Units 318 286 254 212 196 142 148 134 120 95 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Number of construction starts Number of units completed Note: Number of units are adjusted for Selvaag Bolig’s share in joint ventures. 8
Slide 9: Units under construction and completions
Units under construction and completions Sales value units under construction Expected completions per quarter NOK million Units 6 660 6 627 6 749 6 413 6 200 334 1 342 1 310 1 349 1 371 1 201 208 162 169 86 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 22 Q2 22 Q3 22 Q4 22 Sales value Number of units unde
Slide 10: Agenda
Agenda Highlights Operational update Financial update Market Outlook and summary
Slide 11: Income statement highlights Q3 2021 (IFRS)
Income statement highlights Q3 2021 (IFRS) Operating revenues (IFRS) · 314 units delivered (212) NOK million - 89 units from share of JVs (18) · Revenues NOK 887m (706) 1 347 - Other revenues NOK 19m (16) · Project costs NOK 699m (562) 887 706 - Of which NOK 32m is interest (26) 568 394 · Other cost
Slide 12: Q3 2021 proforma figures including proportionate share of JV
Q3 2021 proforma figures including proportionate share of JV Operating revenues (IFRS) NOK million · 314 units delivered (212) · Revenues NOK 1 337 (861) 1 438 1 337 - Other revenues NOK 22m (20) · Project costs NOK 1 067m (688) 861 - Of which NOK 49m is interest (28) 636 645 · Other costs NOK 64m (
Slide 13: Income statement highlights Q3 2021 (NGAAP)
Income statement highlights Q3 2021 (NGAAP) Revenues and EBITDA margin (NGAAP)* 12 month-rolling revenues (NGAAP)* NOK million NOK million 949 858 881 3 395 3 462 3 329 3 317 3 216 774 707 21% 21% 20% 19% 18% 17% 18% 17% 17% 15% Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Operating r
Slide 14: Cash flow development Q3 2021
Cash flow development Q3 2021 NOK million 133 78 81 187 186 580 610 Cash and cash Profit (loss) before Changes in trade CF from investment Net change in Dividends paid to Cash and cash equivalents at 30 June income taxes receivables activities borrowings equity holders of equivalents at 30 2021 Selv
Slide 15: Balance sheet highlights Q3 2021
Balance sheet highlights Q3 2021 Balance sheet composition NOK million · Book value of equity NOK 23.8 per share 7 000 - Equity ratio 34.9% 6 000 Non-current assets - Equity reduction as dividend payout > EPS Equity 5 000 · Changes from Q2 2021: - Inventories stable, down NOK 34m 4 000 Non-current -
Slide 16: Inventories (property) Q3 2021
Inventories (property) Q3 2021 Q3 21 vs Q2 21 Inventory value development NOK million 102 109 124 182 120 · Land value down NOK 81m - Mainly due to construction starts 3 543 3 584 3 172 · Work in progress up NOK 41m 2 911 2 983 - Mainly due to construction starts · Finished goods up NOK 7m 979 909 1
Slide 17: Debt structure
Debt structure Interest-bearing debt at 30.9.21 Drawn at NOK million 30.9.21 Interest rate Loan facility (NOKm) margin* Construction loan facilities from 1 1 956 1.75% - 2.60% a range of Nordic credit institutions 2 Land loans Urban Property** 733 3.75%*** NOK 1 956 Land loan facilities from a range
Slide 18: Return on equity (IFRS)
Return on equity (IFRS) 12-month rolling net income (NOKm) ROE (%) Q1 2020 Net income excluding Other gains of NOK 1 029m 770 739 655 613 610 567 520 530 530 495 479 471 397 401 27% 354 356 366 25% 335 326 24% 301 22% 21% 253 20% 20% 19% 20% 18% 17% 15% 15% 15% 13% 14% 13% 14% 12% 12% 10% Q3 16 Q4 1
Slide 19: Agenda
Agenda Highlights Operational update Financial update Market Outlook and summary
Slide 20: Estimated completions in Oslo well below forecasted need
Estimated completions in Oslo well below forecasted need Units 6 000 5 000 Forecasted housing need of ~4 000 units per year (medium growth) Average number of 4 000 completions (2006-20): ~3 000 units 3 000 2 150** 2 000 1 800 1 600 1 000 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 202
Slide 21: Estimated completions in Akershus
Estimated completions in Akershus* Units 6 000 Forecasted housing need of ~4 900 units per year (medium growth) 5 000 Average # of completions (2006-20): 4 100 ~3 750 units 3 950 4 000 3 000*** 3 000 2 000 1 000 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023e Actual completions Esti
Slide 22: Newbuild market update
Newbuild market update Oslo – 1.1.21 - 31.10.21 Akershus – 1.1.21 - 31.10.21 Units Units 4 634 4 369 1 664 1 819 3 482 3 217 997 842 Available Supplied to Sold Available Available Supplied to Sold Available 31.12.2020 market* 31.10.2021 31.12.2020 market* 31.10.2021 Source: SA - ECON Nye Boliger. *
Slide 23: Newbuild market update
Newbuild market update Bergen – 1.1.21 - 31.10.21 Trondheim – 1.1.21 - 31.10.21 Stavanger & Sandnes – 1.1.21 - 31.10.21 Units Units Units 1 431 1 633 455 845 765 843 1 103 1 113 911 851 931 715 Available Supplied to Sold Available Available Supplied to Sold Available Available Supplied to Sold Avail
Slide 24: Regional Newbuild availability at 31.10.21
Regional Newbuild availability at 31.10.21 3 482 842 911 931 715 Oslo Akershus* Bergen Trondheim Stavanger & Sandnes Population 697 000 674 000 285 000 207 000 225 000 Available units 1.2 5.2 2.5 4.5 4.1 per 1 000 capita Source: SA - ECON Nye Boliger, Statistics Norway. * Includes municipalities pre
Slide 25: Regional Second-hand inventory at 31.10.21
Regional Second-hand inventory at 31.10.21 1 562 1 175 615 529 406 Oslo Akershus* Bergen Trondheim Stavanger-area** Population 697 000 674 000 285 000 207 000 264 000 Available units 2.2 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.7 per 1 000 capita Source: SA - ECON Nye Boliger, Statistics Norway. * Includes municipalities prev
Slide 26: Oslo second-hand market update
Oslo second-hand market update Units sold 1.1 - 31.10, 2010-21 Inventory 31.10, 2010-21 Units Units 19 000 6 000 18 500 5 000 18 000 17 500 4 000 17 000 16 500 3 000 16 000 2 000 15 500 15 000 1 000 14 500 14 000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Slide 27: Akershus second-hand market update
Akershus* second-hand market update Units sold 1.1 - 31.10, 2010-21 Inventory 31.10, 2010-21 Units Units 12 000 6 000 10 000 5 000 8 000 4 000 6 000 3 000 4 000 2 000 2 000 1 000 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20
Slide 28: Regional price development 1.1-31.10, 2012-21
Regional price* development 1.1-31.10, 2012-21 Oslo Bergen 20.1% 11.1% 9.0% 7.8% 8.4% 7.3% 4.7% 9.6% 9.1% 2.4% 8.7% 6.6% 6.4% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% 3.8% 3.2% -4.0% -8.9% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 • YTD increase of 8.7% = NOK 3 950 pe
Slide 29: Strong pipeline
Strong pipeline RingvePluss | Trondheim Skårerbyen | Greater Oslo Lørenskog stasjonsby | Lille Løren Park | Oslo Greater Oslo · ~ 650 units total · ~ 1 100 units total · ~ 348 units total (50/50 JV) · ~ 2 000 units total · ~ 600 units remaining for sale · ~ 700 units remaining for sale · Expected sa
Slide 30: Significant upcoming projects
Significant upcoming projects Source: www.barkarby.se Fredrikstad | Greater Oslo Barkarby | Stockholm Bjerke | Oslo Fornebu | Greater Oslo · ~ 2 000 units (50/50 JV) · ~ 250 units total · ~ 1 200 units total · ~ 2 000 units total (50/50 JV) · ~ 400 Pluss units · ~ 250 Pluss units · ~ 300 Pluss units
Slide 31: Agenda
Agenda Highlights Operational update Financial update Market Outlook and summary
Slide 32: Outlook
Outlook · Continued good market · Macro conditions remain sound · Solid pipeline – planning sales start of more than 500 units in Q4 2021 and Q1 2022 32
Slide 33: Summary
Summary · Solid earnings with good margins · Units sold first 9 months up 13% year over year · Solid pipeline for coming quarters 33
Slide 34: Thank you for your attention – follow us online!
Thank you for your attention – follow us online! Next event: 4th quarter 2021 @SelvaagAksjen 15 February 2022
Slide 35: Appendix
Appendix
Slide 36: Return on equity (IFRS)
Return on equity (IFRS) 12-month rolling net income (NOKm) ROE (%) 12-month rolling net income (NOKm) ROE (%) Q1 2020 Net income excluding Other gains of NOK 1 029m Q1 2020 Net income including Other gains of NOK 1 029m 1 799 1 639 1 558 1 524 58% 53% 51% 739 770 739 45% 655 610 655 530 495 479 530
Slide 37: Earnings and dividend per share since IPO
Earnings and dividend per share since IPO Annual dividend and earnings per share Accumulated dividend and earnings per share 48.89 47.47 Earnings per share Earnings per share 45.80 7.04 43.80 Dividend per share Dividend per share 6.14 6.00 5.31 31.14 4.50 4.35 24.10 3.50 3.21 2.95 3.00 3.00 17.96 2.
Slide 38: Dividend policy
Dividend policy Revised dividend policy: Selvaag Bolig’s ambition is to pay high and stable dividends to its owners. The company aims to pay dividends of minimum 60 per cent of net annual profit, paid in two instalments over the year. However, the size of the dividend will be weighed against the com
Slide 39: Share performance since IPO in June 2012
Share performance since IPO in June 2012 NOK 70 60 50 40 30 20 0.50 1.20 0.70 0.80 0.65 0.95 1.20 1.80 2.00 2.50 2.00 22.00 3.00 2.00 10 0 Share price Dividend Source: Oslo Børs. 39
Slide 40: Share information
Share information 5 000 4 000 · Total number of shares: 93.8 million # of shareholders · Number of shareholders: 4 619 (4 665)* 3 000 - 20 largest controlling 81.0% (80.2) - Selvaag AS largest shareholder - 53.5% 2 000 · Trading - 3.5 million shares during the quarter (4.7) 1 000 - Share turnover to
Slide 41: Largest shareholders at 30.9, 2021
Largest shareholders at 30.9, 2021 Shareholder # of shares % share SELVAAG AS 50 180 087 53.5% Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB* 7 504 973 8.0% PARETO INVEST AS 3 290 989 3.5% VERDIPAPIRFONDET ALFRED BERG GAMBA 3 117 700 3.3% JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., London* 1 943 435 2.1% State Street Bank and Tr
Slide 42: Addressing the long term housing need
Addressing the long term housing need · Nearly 60 000 homes over the last 70 years Trondheim 486 units · Housing for all Bergen 671 units Greater-Oslo · Focus on fast growing urban regions 8 529 units Stockholm Stavanger 590 units · Large projects with more than 150 units 736 units 42
Slide 43: Positioned to realize large projects in Norway's four largest growing urban areas
Positioned to realize large projects in Norway’s four largest growing urban areas Land-bank strategy Land bank exposure Geographical spread • Acquire the right mix of zoned and un-zoned land in suitable locations • Land acquisitions in defined core areas in co-operation with Urban Property • High de
Slide 44: Change in needs calls for new concepts
Change in needs calls for new concepts Selvaag Pluss • Lifestyle concept • Attractive common areas • Professional hosting services • Service offerings and good neighbourliness, make every day living easier • Guestrooms for family and friends • Work-out- and fitness centre Selvaag City • Urban lifest
Slide 45: Bergen second-hand market update
Bergen second-hand market update Units sold 1.1 - 31.10, 2010-21 Inventory 31.10, 2010-21 Units Units 7 000 2 000 6 000 1 500 5 000 4 000 1 000 3 000 2 000 500 1 000 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Ei
Slide 46: Trondheim second-hand market update
Trondheim second-hand market update Units sold 1.1 - 31.10, 2010-21 Inventory 31.10, 2010-21 Units Units 6 000 2 000 5 000 1 500 4 000 3 000 1 000 2 000 500 1 000 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Eiend
Slide 47: Stavanger-area second-hand market update
Stavanger-area* second-hand market update Units sold 1.1 - 31.10, 2010-21 Inventory 31.10, 2010-21 Units Units 6 000 2 000 5 000 1 500 4 000 3 000 1 000 2 000 500 1 000 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source:
Slide 48: Land bank acquisitions
Land bank acquisitions • Land bank replacement secure long-term Land bank exposure growth Trondheim 486 units • Persistent presence in established areas in Norway Bergen 671 units Greater-Oslo • Increasing exposure in new growth area Stavanger 8 529 units Stockholm 590 units 736 units Lilleakerveien
Slide 49: Land bank in Oslo and Greater Oslo at 30.9.21
Land bank in Oslo and Greater Oslo at 30.9.21 Lørenskog 1 861 units Bærum 2 129 units Lørenskog Stasjonsby 613 units Avløs 504 units Kjelsås 315 units Skårer bolig 673 units Ballerud 150 units Kjelsåsveien 161 315 units LSV 300 units Eyvind Lyches vei 123 units Løren/Økern/Ensjø 324 units Pallplasse
Slide 50: Land bank in Stavanger area at 30.9.21
Land bank in Stavanger area at 30.9.21 Stavanger 202 units Lervig brygge 202 units Sola 154 units Jaasund 154 units 154 units 202 Stavanger units Sandnes 380 units Aase gård 41 units Sola Sandnes Vågen 300 units Luratoppen 39 units Sandnes 380 units *The numbers are adjusted for Selvaag Bolig’s shar
Slide 51: Land bank in Bergen, Trondheim and Stockholm at 30.9.21
Land bank in Bergen, Trondheim and Stockholm at 30.9.21 Trondheim 486 units Heimdal 42 units Haakon VII gate 4 314 units Migosenteret 130 units Sweden 486 units Stockholm 590 units Løvholmen 50 units Bergen 671 units Årsta 140 units Sandsliåsen 57 132 units Slakthusområdet 170 units Sandsliåsen 59 6
Slide 52: Cooperation with Urban Property from 1.1.2021
Cooperation with Urban Property from 1.1.2021 Selvaag Bolig sold most of its land bank to Urban Property in January 2020, entering a long-term and strategic partnership. Urban Property is a financially sound, well capitalized and predictable partner. • How it works: • Benefits for Selvaag Bolig: - U
Slide 53: Reduced capital binding in practice, in effect no equity needed for land
Reduced capital binding in practice, in effect no equity needed in Selvaag Bolig for land Residential development value chain: cooperation between Selvaag Bolig and Urban Property Acquisition of land Zoning Sales start Construction start Delivery 6 – 36 months 6 – 12 months 3 – 9 months 12 – 24 mont
Slide 54: Example project calculations before and after
Example project calculations before and after PROJECT CALCULATIONS PROJECT CALCULATIONS 1 BEFORE URBAN PROPERTY 2 AFTER URBAN PROPERTY Figures for illustration purposes only MNOK % MNOK % Sales revenue 348.5 100.0% 348.5 100.0% Construction cost 195.8 56.2% 195.8 56.2% Land cost 69.7 20.0% 85.2 24.4
Slide 55: Margin development through project stages
Margin development through project stages* 6 – 36 MONTHS 6 – 12 MONTHS 3 – 9 MONTHS 12 – 24 MONTHS 0 MONTHS Acquire and refine Contracting, marketing Project design Construction and sales Delivery to customers land for development and pre-sales Project margin 20% 15% Project margin 10% 18% 5% 0% · L
Slide 56: Project margin development
Project margin development NOK million 3 342 3 406 3 194 3 239 3 204 3 277 3 215 3 271 3 264 3 179 3 165 3 038 2 931 2 929 2 683 2 586 2 377 30% 28% 29% 28% 27% 28% 28% 27% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 25% 24% 23% 21% Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 21 Q
Slide 57: Substantial portfolio for development
Substantial portfolio for development Total land bank portfolio at 30.9.2021 Units 5 870 11 000 5 130 Total land bank Options and obligations to acquire Land bank in balance sheet 57
Slide 58: Valuation of remaining land bank
Valuation of remaining land bank* NOK million 582 1 491 909 Book value 31.12.2020 Gap Valuation: 60 Grader Næringsmegling (Nov 2020) * Part of SBO land bank not included in the UP transaction. 58
Slide 59: Value of units sold - gross and net
Value of units sold - gross and net Sales value of units sold NOK million 1 393 1 431 1 314 1 320 209 1 177 1 104 1 031 914 920 927 849 862 861 859 788 710 696 731 660 487 443 1 183 1 242 394 1 106 999 1 010 840 910 871 751 771 756 705 696 633 690 632 693 634 614 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18
Slide 60: Number of units sold - gross and net
Number of units sold - gross and net Number of units sold Units 209 270 276 274 238 216 225 207 203 201 209 187 192 196 182 186 180 487 169 158 443 394 147 243 248 210 199 190 178 185 181 182 178 173 165 168 159 164 148 140 142 125 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4
Slide 61: Income statement IFRS
Income statement IFRS (figures in NOK million) Q3 2021 Q3 2020 9M 2021 9M 2020 2020 Total operating revenues 886.9 706.1 1 848.9 1 350.7 2 698.0 Project expenses (698.5) (562.0) (1 404.5) (1 032.7) (1 967.6) Other operating expenses (53.8) (61.7) (158.4) (176.0) (256.8) Associated companies and join
Slide 62: Balance sheet
Balance sheet (figures in NOK million) Q3 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2020 2020 Intangible assets 383.4 383.4 383.4 383.4 Property, plant and equipment 6.6 6.8 5.3 7.3 Investments in associated companies and joint ventures 342.6 438.6 398.6 406.9 Other non-current assets 271.7 237.8 236.2 228.1 Total non-curren
Slide 63: Cash flow statement
Cash flow statement (figures in NOK million) Q3 2021 Q3 2020 9M 2021 9M 2020 2020 Net cash flow from operating activities 174.5 (266.8) (328.6) 692.8 1 615.7 Net cash flow from investment activities 133.4 31.7 169.1 409.1 413.8 Net cash flow from financing activities (278.3) (82.3) (116.2) (1 919.3)
Slide 64: Operational highlights – key operating figures
Operational highlights – key operating figures Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Units sold 164 142 178 199 248 173 125 Construction starts 15 31 196 254 134 142 148 Units completed 89 104 212 286 95 120 318 Units delivered 114 122 212 272 124 132 314 Units under construction 1 431 1 357 1 3
Slide 65: EBITDA Q3 2021
EBITDA Q3 2021 Property (figures in NOK million) development Other Total Operating revenues 756.5 17.4 774.0 Project expenses (603.2) (0.2) (603.3) Other operating expenses (10.3) (46.0) (56.3) EBITDA (percentage of completion) 143.0 (28.7) 114.3 Note: Construction costs are exclusive of financial e
Slide 66: EBITDA 9M 2021
EBITDA 9M 2021 Property (figures in NOK million) development Other Total Operating revenues 2 468.3 44.6 2 512.9 Project expenses (1 936.3) (0.4) (1 936.7) Other operating expenses (36.6) (129.4) (166.0) EBITDA (percentage of completion) 495.4 (85.2) 410.2 Note: Construction costs are exclusive of f
Slide 67: Norwegian housing market
Norwegian housing market · Low risk for housebuilders · Advance sales: banks require that 50-70% of homes are sold before construction starts · Binding offers: offer to purchase is a binding sales contract, and requires a minimum 10% cash deposit · High level of home ownership · 85% (one of the worl
Slide 68: Regional price development October, 2010-21
Regional price* development October, 2010-21 Oslo Bergen 2.4% 1.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% -0.2% -0.3% -0.3% -0.7% -0.8% -0.6% -0.7% -1.1% -1.3% -2.3% -1.7% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20
Slide 69: Total household debt and homeownership
Total household debt and homeownership 257% 247% 236% 223% 91% 80% 200% 82% 79% 74% 76% 75% 71% 71% 72% 69% 69% 64% 65% 64% 61% 149% 55% 142% 51% 131% 123% 122% 117% 42% 105% 98% 96% 90% 88% 83% 76% 76% Household debt in % of net disposable income (2020) Homeownership rate (2019) Source: OECD, Stati
Slide 70: Shift in demographics trigger new housing needs
Shift in demographics trigger new housing needs Annual population growth* by age Number of people by age in 2020 6% 200 000 150 000 4% 100 000 2% 50 000 0% 0 -2% OSLO STAVANGER BERGEN TRONDHEIM OSLO STAVANGER BERGEN TRONDHEIM 19-23 24-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ 16-23 24-34 34-44 45-54 55-64 65-7
Slide 71: Price development Norway and selected regions (2005-21)
Price development Norway and selected regions (2005-21) Price development (rebased 1.1.2005) 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Norway Oslo Bergen Stavanger-area* Trondheim Source: Eiendomsverdi. * Stavanger area includes: Randaberg, Sandnes, Sola, Stavanger. 71
Slide 72: Increasing share of population growth in Oslo and Akershus
Increasing share of population growth in Oslo and Akershus 55% 55% 45% 43% 42% 40% 25.3 % 38% 35% 35% 25.1 % 35% 24.9 % 33% 24.8 % 24.6 % 24.5 % 24.3 % 24.0 % 24.2 % 23.9 % 23.7 % 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Share of total population in Oslo and Akershus Share of total pop
Slide 73: Immigration increases demand over time
Immigration increases demand over time Homeownership rate among immigrants in Norway (per year living in Norway) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
Slide 74: Norway – relatively limited volatility
Norway – relatively limited volatility GDP growth 2013 - 2023e Unemployment 2013 - 2023e 10% 10% 8% 5% 6% 0% 4% -5% 2% -10% 0% 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023e 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023e Norway Sweden Denmark Germany UK Norway Sweden Denmark Germany UK Population growth 2020 - 2030e and 2040e
Slide 75: Norway – moving back to normal through 2022
Norway – moving back to normal in through 2022 Real economy 2019 - 2024e Demand 2019 - 2024e 6% 15% 4% 10% 2% 5% 0% 0% -2% -5% -4% -10% 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024E 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e GDP GDP mainland Unemployment rate Mainland demand Household consumption Housing investment Wage
Slide 76: SELVAAG BOLIG
SELVAAG BOLIG