Mol Hungarian Oil & Gas Plc Class A · BET:MOL
Mol Hungarian Oil & Gas Plc Class A — MOL Group — Q4 2024 Earnings Presentation
43 slides from Mol Hungarian Oil & Gas Plc Class A's earnings presentation, Feb 21, 2025
Slide 1: Fourth Quarter 2024 Results
FOURTH QUARTER 2024 RESULTS 21 FEBRUARY 2025
Slide 2: Disclaimer
DISCLAIMER "THIS PRESENTATION AND THE ASSOCIATED SLIDES AND DISCUSSION CONTAIN FORWARD -LOOKING STATEMENTS. THESE STATEMENTS ARE NATURALLY SUBJECT TO UNCERTAINTY AND CHANGES IN CIRCUMSTANCES. THOSE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS MAY INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO, THOSE REGARDING CAPITAL EMPLOYED, CAPI
Slide 3: Highlights of the Quarter
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE QUARTER
Slide 4: 2024 Guidance Delivered on All Fronts
2024 GUIDANCE DELIVERED ON ALL FRONTS OPERATIONAL AND EBITDA EXPECTATIONS FULLY- OR OVERACHIEVED; PBT GUIDANCE IN SLIGHT UNDER- PERFORMANCE FY 2023 2024 FY 2024 RESULTS GUIDANCE RESULTS GROUP PROFIT BEFORE USD 1,936 MN ~USD 1.6 BN USD 1,500 MN TAX 1 GROUP CLEAN CCS USD 3,093 MN ~USD 3.0 BN USD 3,073
Slide 5: Healthy Operations in Q4 2024 Despite Industry Headwinds
HEALTHY OPERATIONS IN Q4 2024 DESPITE INDUSTRY HEADWINDS CONSUMER SERVICES ORGANIC GROWTH CONTINUES WHILE MACRO PRESSURE REMAINS IN DOWNSTREAM FINANCIALS Full year 2024 Profit before tax at USD 1,500 mn, down by 23% year-on-year on lower reported EBITDA and FX effect Clean CCS EBITDA down by 31% YoY
Slide 6: TRIR Clearly Beats Guidance in 2024
TRIR CLEARLY BEATS GUIDANCE IN 2024 WITH IMPROVEMENT ON YOY RESULTS TOTAL RECORDABLE INJURY RATE (TRIR) TRIR RESULTS -65% -21% TRIR well below the tolerable limit of 1.3 set for 2024 Significant improvement achieved compared to 2023 both in Q4 1.4 (-65%) and in the full year (-21%) as safety project
Slide 7: 2025 Guidance
2025 GUIDANCE FY 2023 FY 2024 2025 RESULTS RESULTS GUIDANCE GROUP PROFIT BEFORE USD 1,936 MN USD 1,500 MN ~USD 1.6 BN TAX 1 GROUP CLEAN CCS USD 3,093 MN USD 3,073 MN >USD 3.0 BN EBITDA OIL & GAS 90.4 MBOEPD 93.8 MBOEPD ~92-94 MBOEPD PRODUCTION1 CRUDE PROCESSING2 11.8 MT 11.3 MT ~12 MT GROUP CAPEX ~1
Slide 8: Key Group Quarterly Financials
KEY GROUP QUARTERLY FINANCIALS
Slide 9: EBITDA at USD 682 mn in Q4 2024
EBITDA AT USD 682 MN IN Q4 2024 DOWNSTREAM AND CES UNDERPERFORMANCE WEIGH ON RESULTS SEGMENT CLEAN CCS EBITDA (USD mn) COMMENTS -31% -20% Upstream 992 976 Stable QoQ EBITDA delivery with further success in combating natural decline 847 375 825 Downstream 682 718 279 Challenging margin environment co
Slide 10: Q4 2024 CAPEX Flat YoY
Q4 2024 CAPEX FLAT YOY FULL YEAR 2024 ORGANIC INVESTMENTS UP BY 16% DUE TO SUSTAIN-TYPE CAPEX HIGHER IN TURNAROUND-HEAVY YEAR TOTAL GROUP CAPEX (USD mn) TOTAL GROUP CAPEX (USD mn) 0% +46% 0% +46% 605 603 605 603 52 52 113 80 413 413 370 12 370 12 350 350 320 282 320 81 486 1 262 14 3 474 222 341 266
Slide 11: Full Year Ended with Over USD 1bn Net Income
FULL YEAR ENDED WITH OVER USD 1BN NET INCOME FY 2024 EARNINGS (USD mn) 1 – BELOW THE EBITDA LINE ITEMS 3,073 81 0 DS 1,267 1,377 CS 743 2,992 181 66 397 80 1,615 1,500 US 1,099 1,103 1,023 Other 36 Clean CCS CCS EBITDA excl. Special items DD&A and Profit from Total finance Income from Profit Income
Slide 12: Net Financial Expense Above USD 100 mn Due to HUF Weakening
NET FINANCIAL EXPENSE ABOVE USD 100 MN DUE TO HUF WEAKENING CCS effect, gain / loss (USD mn) Comments -18 CCS modification negative in Q4 due to higher -100 -89 CO2 adjustment Q4 2023 Q3 2024 Q4 2024 DD&A (USD mn) -14% +26% DD&A lower YoY due to lower net impairment 499 341 429 Q4 2023 Q3 2024 Q4 20
Slide 13: Operating Cash Flow Above USD 2.2 bn in 2024
OPERATING CASH FLOW ABOVE USD 2.2 BN IN 2024 NET WORKING CAPITAL BUILD POSITION IN THE FULL YEAR OPERATING CASH FLOW FOR TOTAL OPERATION IN FY 2024 (USD mn) 2,488 540 263 270 2,218 1,377 1,636 1,500 112 1,388 Profit before tax Profit before tax Profit before tax DD&A Income tax paid Other Operating
Slide 14: Balance Sheet Strength Upheld Throughout 2024
BALANCE SHEET STRENGTH UPHELD THROUGHOUT 2024 INDEBTEDNESS SAFELY BELOW TOLERANCE THRESHOLD OF 1X EBITDA NET DEBT TO EBITDA (x) GEARING (%) 2.0 30 27.3 25.2 1.61 25 1.5 20.6 1.31 19.6 19.4 20 18.6 18.1 17.5 0.97 14.2 15.0 14.9 1.0 15 14.0 0.82 0.82 12.0 0.74 0.74 11.4 0.65 0.65 0.64 0.65 0.59 10 0.5
Slide 15: Downstream Q4 2024 Results
DOWNSTREAM Q4 2024 RESULTS
Slide 16: Downstream EBITDA at USD 267 mn in Q4 2024
DOWNSTREAM EBITDA AT USD 267 MN IN Q4 2024 FY 2024 CLEAN CCS EBITDA KEPT ABOVE USD 1.2 BN, IN LINE WITH STRATEGIC GOAL QUARTERLY CLEAN CCS EBITDA (USD mn) CRUDE PROCESSED (kt)1 TOTAL PRODUCT SALES (kt)2 +3% +10% +9% -2% -42% -11% 469 456 3,148 3,095 5,384 5,322 5,191 3,009 5,005 2,819 2,809 288 4,76
Slide 17: Refining Margin Continues Downtrend
REFINING MARGIN CONTINUES DOWNTREND INTEGRATED PETCHEM MARGIN DOWN 35% QOQ REFINING MARGIN (USD/bbl) COMMENTS Brent-based MOL Group refinery margin (USD/bbl) 14 13.2 Brent-based refining margins continued to trend downwards in Q4 to Brent-based Complex refinery margin (MOL+Slovnaft) (USD/bbl) below
Slide 18: Volume Effect Positive Despite Petchem Turnarounds
VOLUME EFFECT POSITIVE DESPITE PETCHEM TURNAROUNDS MARGIN WEAKNESS THE MAIN DRAG ON PROFITS IN Q4 DOWNSTREAM CLEAN CCS EBITDA YoY, Q4 2024 VS. Q4 2023 (USD mn) COMMENTS 456 R&M price & margin contribution significantly negative due to normalization in refining margins 136 63 11 128 267 Petchem price
Slide 19: Consumer Services Q4 2024 Results
CONSUMER SERVICES Q4 2024 RESULTS
Slide 20: Q4 EBITDA Driven by Non-Fuel Expansion
Q4 EBITDA DRIVEN BY NON-FUEL EXPANSION ORGANIC EXPANSION CONTINUES DESPITE FEWER FUEL STATIONS QUARTERLY EBITDA (USD mn) EBITDA YoY, Q4 2024 VS. Q4 2023 (USD mn) +8% +8% -37% 250 249 156 2 2 4 144 14 2 194 156 144 144 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024 EBITDA Q4 2023 Fuel volume Non-fue
Slide 21: Fuel Sales Driven by Seasonality and Network Size
FUEL SALES DRIVEN BY SEASONALITY AND NETWORK SIZE STRONGER NETWORK DRIVES THROUGHPUT UPWARDS TOTAL VOLUMES SOLD (mn litres) FUEL THROUGHPUT/SITE1 (mn litres) -1% -12% 2 243 3% 2 057 1 991 1 980 1 817 4Y CAGR: +6.6% 0.91 0.89 0.92 0.78 0.72 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024 Q4 2020 Q4 2021 Q4 2
Slide 22: Non-Fuel Margin Continues to Trend Upwards
NON-FUEL MARGIN CONTINUES TO TREND UPWARDS FRESH CORNER ROLLOUT SUPPORTED NON-FUEL RESULTS TOTAL NON-FUEL TURNOVER (USD MN) 1 NON-FUEL MARGIN (USD MN) 1 +4% -14% +11% -17% 546 554 173 496 159 475 149 456 445 143 128 119 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024
Slide 23: Upstream Q4 2024 Results
UPSTREAM Q4 2024 RESULTS
Slide 24: E&P Contribution to Group EBITDA Above USD 1bn in 2024
E&P CONTRIBUTION TO GROUP EBITDA ABOVE USD 1BN IN 2024 Q4 RESULTS SUPPORTED BY BOTH PRICE ENVIRONMENT AND VOLUMES QUARTERLY EBITDA (excl. special items) (USD mn) OIL PRICES 134.0 -27% -1% 140 120 100.8 88.9 102.4 81.4 100 81.2 84.3 83.2 85.0 80.3 78.1 86.8 74.7 80 97.1 77.8 76.3 75.1 75.4 81.8 66.8
Slide 25: Unit Free Cash Flow Stable at 24 USD/bbl
UNIT FREE CASH FLOW STABLE AT 24 USD/BBL IN LINE WITH THE STRATEGIC GUIDANCE SIMPLIFIED FCF REALIZATION CLOSE TO USD 200 MN QUARTERLY PRICE REALIZATION, EBITDA, SFCF (USD/boe) 90 87 84 85 83 80 80 75 70 63 65 60 62 67 50 49 67 78 40 Brent 34 37 35 35 30 Realised HC price 28 20 42 Unit EBITDA 24 27 2
Slide 26: Stable EBITDA Delivery Compared to the Previous Quarter
STABLE EBITDA DELIVERY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS QUARTER UPSTREAM EBITDA QoQ, Q3 2024 VS. Q4 2024 (USD mn) COMMENTS -3 Higher gas prices compared to base period (TTF +36 -16 -4 +7 -19 -5 +12%), while Brent prices stabilized in the 70-80 USD/boe range. Volumes: Entitlement production slightly lower 27
Slide 27: 2024 Production of 93.8 mboepd at the Top of Guidance Interval
2024 PRODUCTION OF 93.8 MBOEPD AT THE TOP OF GUIDANCE INTERVAL EFFECTIVE COMBAT AGAINST NATURAL DECLINE AND KAZAKHSTAN RAMP-UP CONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY ENTITLEMENT PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY (mboepd) COMMENTS Production totalling 94.8 mboepd in Q4 2024, down 1.4 96.2 94.8 mboepd QoQ: 92.3 92.8 93.8 92-9
Slide 28: CAPEX Discipline Remains Strong
CAPEX DISCIPLINE REMAINS STRONG SLIGHT INCREASE IN GROUP UNIT OPEX DUE TO EOY OPEX-CAPEX RECLASSIFICATION UNIT OPEX (USD/boe) UNIT OPEX YTD (USD/boe) GROUP FULLY CONSOLIDATED (INCL. JVS/ASSOC.) SUBS. 7.9 8.0 +2% 7.5 7.2 7.3 +3% 7.0 6.8 6.5 6.6 6.3 6.4 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.2 6.2 5.9 5.9 6.0 5.9 6.0 5.7 5.8
Slide 29: Circular Economy Services Q4 2024 Results
CIRCULAR ECONOMY SERVICES Q4 2024 RESULTS
Slide 30: CES EBITDA Shows USD 48 mn Loss in Q4
CES EBITDA SHOWS USD 48 MN LOSS IN Q4 DRS’ HIGHER OPERATING COSTS PUT PRESSURE ON RESULTS QUARTERLY EBITDA (USD mn) COMMENTS Q4 EBITDA at a loss of USD 48 mn, due to cost pressure in Deposit Return 20 System (DRS) ramp-up phase, a receivables impairment, and seasonally 18 16 -10 -10 low secondary ra
Slide 31: Supporting Slides
SUPPORTING SLIDES
Slide 32: FY 2024 SFCF Above USD 1.4 bn
FY 2024 SFCF ABOVE USD 1.4 BN SIMPLIFIED FCF1 (USD mn) 639 -66% -71% 386 446 457 198 402 262 131 78 195 174 210 4 62 89 6 0 42 33 27 -89 -78 -144 -105 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024 US DS CS CES GM C&O (incl. intersegment) (1) Simplified Free Cash Flow = Clean CCS EBITDA – total org
Slide 33: Working Interest Based Production Firmly Above 120 mboepd
WORKING INTEREST BASED PRODUCTION FIRMLY ABOVE 120 MBOEPD QUARTERLY WORKING INTEREST PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY1 (mboepd) 129.1 126.0 121.8 122.8 122.9 117.5 20.3 17.3 17.2 20.3 16.0 Associated 17.0 companies* 3.9 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.7 Other 4.8 8.9 3.8 6.4 8.1 6.7 KRI 2.8 6.0 6.1 5.3 4.6 5.9 5.1 Pakistan 33.6
Slide 34: Upstream: Operational Update (1)
UPSTREAM: OPERATIONAL UPDATE (1) Hungary Croatia EXPLORATION EXPLORATION Görgeteg-Babócsa-33 shallow gas well: drilling was finished, well test in 2025 Block DR-03: Obradovci-5 exploration well test operations were finished, gas Q1. discovery is confirmed. Somogysámson-8 well: Drilling was finished,
Slide 35: Upstream: Operational Update (2)
UPSTREAM: OPERATIONAL UPDATE (2) Pakistan Russia EXPLORATION 24 well workovers (WWOs) were performed YTD, 8 WWOs in Q4. TAL block (Operated): Razgir-1 well post-drill volumetric estimates have Construction work program fully delivered: pipelines construction and been finalized. reconstruction, power
Slide 36: Upstream CAPEX by Region and by Type in FY 2024
UPSTREAM CAPEX BY REGION AND BY TYPE IN FY 2024 ORGANIC CAPEX BY REGION AND BY TYPE (USD mn) HUN CRO KRI PAK AZE OTHER Total – 2024 Total – 2023 EXP 25.3 14.3 0.0 1.9 5.2 0.1 46.8 32.5 DEV 38.7 38.4 (0.1) 3.7 114.7 10.6 206.0 268.4 Other 16.8 30.2 4.3 0.7 3.9 (0.2) 55.7 64.9 Total – 2024 80.8 82.9 4
Slide 37: Gas Midstream: Key Financials
GAS MIDSTREAM: KEY FINANCIALS EBITDA excl. spec. items (USD mn) CAPEX (USD mn) -1% -9% 25 79 74 19 55 57 52 52 15 7 6 1 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024 KEY FINANCIALS (USD mn) COMMENTS Q4 2024 Q4 2023 YoY % FY 2024 FY 2023 YoY % EBITDA
Slide 38: Sustainability Indicators
SUSTAINABILITY INDICATORS CO2 under ETS (mn t) HC Spill above 1bbl (m3) Tier1 PSE +6% 4 4 2.0 1.52 1.61 3 3 3 1.40 1.33 1.32 3 1.5 600 499 2 1.0 400 1 0.5 200 0 23 16 17 5 0 0 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024 Tota
Slide 39: Macro Indicators
MACRO INDICATORS BRENT (USD/bbl) MOL REFINERY MARGIN* (USD/bbl) HUF/USD (Q avg.) 120 25 450 Brent-based MOL Group 100 20 400 Brent-based Complex (MOL + Slovnaft) 80 15 350 60 10 300 40 5 250 20 0 200 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2022
Slide 40: Consolidated Statement of Profit or Loss
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF PROFIT OR LOSS YoY Q3 2024 Q4 2024 Q4 2023 Income Statement (HUF million) FY 2024 FY 2023 Ch % Ch % 2,464,123 2,295,704 2,333,273 (2) Net sales 9,178,677 8,908,499 3 11,240 18,682 18,914 (1) Other operating income 69,837 57,537 21 2,475,363 2,314,386 2,352,187 (2) Total ope
Slide 41: Consolidated Statement of Financial Position
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION Balance Sheet (HUF million) 31 Dec 2024 31 Dec 2023 Ch % Balance Sheet (HUF million) 31 Dec 2024 31 Dec 2023 Ch % Assets Equity and Liabilities Non-current assets Equity Property, plant and equipment 4,632,771 3,997,801 16 Share capital 79,443 79,192 0 In
Slide 42: Consolidated Statement of Cash Flow
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF CASH FLOW YoY Q3 2024 Q4 2024 Q4 2023 Cash Flow (HUF million) FY 2024 FY 2023 Ch % Ch % 180,738 29,729 169,950 (83) Profit / (loss) before tax for continuing operation 542,303 691,418 (22) 0 0 (2,740) (100) Profit / (loss) before tax for discontinued operation (40,893) (449
Slide 43: External Parameters
EXTERNAL PARAMETERS YoY Q3 2024 Q4 2024 Q4 2023 Macro figures (average) FY 2024 FY 2023 Ch % Ch % 80.3 74.7 84.3 (11) Brent dated (USD/bbl) 80.8 82.6 (2) (3.4) (3.7) (4.3) (14) Urals-Brent spread (USD/bbl, DAP India Urals quotation)(11) (3.6) (9.6) (63) 35.7 43.3 43.0 1 TTF gas price (EUR/MWh) 34.6