Mosaic Company (the) · NYSE:MOS

Mosaic Company (the) — The Mosaic Company — Q3 2024 Earnings Presentation

25 slides from Mosaic Company (the)'s earnings presentation, Nov 12, 2024

  1. Slide 1: The Mosaic Company Third Quarter 2024 Results

    The Mosaic Company Third Quarter 2024 Results November 12, 2024

  2. Slide 2: Forward Looking Statements & Non-GAAP Financial Measures

    Forward Looking Statements & Non-GAAP Financial Measures This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements may include, but are not limited to, statements about proposed or pending transactions or strateg

  3. Slide 3: Third Quarter 2024 Performance

    Third Quarter 2024 Performance CONSOLIDATED OPERATING NET ADJUSTED (1) REVENUES EARNINGS INCOME EBITDA $2,811M $115M $122M $448M PHOSPHATE POTASH MOSAIC FERTILIZANTES Net Operating Adjusted(1) Net Operating Adjusted(1) Net Operating Adjusted(1) Revenues Earnings EBITDA Revenues Earnings EBITDA Reven

  4. Slide 4: Third Quarter 2024 Key Takeaways

    Third Quarter 2024 Key Takeaways ➢ Weather-related impacts and other production issues are behind us ➢ On track to achieve targeted phosphate production run rate of 7.8-8.2 million tonnes by end of 2024 Business ➢ Making good progress in achieving $150 million annual run rate cost saving target by e

  5. Slide 5: Mosaic Biosciences

    Mosaic Biosciences Acres Covered 9 million 112% CAGR 3.9 million 2 million 2022 2023 2024 Mosaic Biosciences Markets Mosaic Biosciences growth accelerated and achieved 9 million acres in key markets in 2024. 5 Source: Mosaic data

  6. Slide 6: Investing in Our Strengths

    Investing in Our Strengths Strategic Advantages Initiatives/Projects Progress Esterhazy Compaction ➢ Completed and fully ramped up Optimized Operations ➢ On-track for completion in 2H 25 Esterhazy Hydrofloat Riverview MicroEssentials ➢ Completed and fully ramped up Capacity Conversion A Value-Added

  7. Slide 7: Market Highlights

    Market Highlights

  8. Slide 8: World Grain and Oilseed Growth

    World Grain and Oilseed Growth Bil Tonnes World Grain and Oilseed Use Grain & Oilseed Production Growth breakdown by region 3.7 Brazil Other 3.6 20% 25% 3.5 3.4 India Other Asia / 16% Oceania 3.3 13% 2023 2030F North China America Feed Food+Other Biofuels (MOS baseline) Biofuels (IEA accel) 13% 13%

  9. Slide 9: Fertilizer Affordability

    Fertilizer Affordability P&K Affordability DAP + MOP Price Index / Crop Price Index 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Average (2010-present) DAP+MOP Average Phosphate and potash are affordable. Source: Weekly Price Publication

  10. Slide 10: Brazil Fertilizer Shipments

    Brazil Fertilizer Shipments Bag/MT Brazil Soybean Barter Ratio Mil Tonnes Brazil Fertilizer Shipments 40 50 45 – 46.6 Less Affordable Fertilizers 30 Actual/Estimate Forecast Range 20 40 10 More Affordable Fertilizers 0 30 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Bag/MT Brazil Corn Barter Ratio 20 80 Less Affor

  11. Slide 11: Global Potash Market

    Global Potash Market Mil Tonnes Global MOP Shipments $/MT MOP Prices Published Spot Prices 80 1,400 c&f Brazil 75 72 - 74 1,200 c&f SE Asia delivered Cornbelt 70 1,000 fob NOLA 65 800 60 600 55 400 50 200 45 0 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24F 25F Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Potas

  12. Slide 12: Global Phosphate Supply and Demand

    Global Phosphate Supply and Demand Mil Tonnes Phosphate S/D Changes 2019-2024F 5.0 4.0 ~3.0 MMT gap between trend 3.0 demand and supply from 2.0 2019-2024 1.0 0.0 FSU Morocco Saudi Other China Other Lithuania Implied Cumulative Arabia Ramp-Up/ Operational Demand Demand Closures Changes Change (Trend

  13. Slide 13: Global Phosphate Inventories

    Global Phosphate Inventories Global Phosphate Inventories Index1 175 150 125 100 75 50 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Global phosphate inventories remain below historical average. 1. Estimated end-Sep inventories in China (producers), Brazil, India and the U.S. (producers). Index: end-201

  14. Slide 14: China Phosphate Exports

    China Phosphate Exports Mil Tonnes China Phosphate Exports 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Average Average 2025F 2015-21 2022-24F China phosphate exports will likely remain at historically low levels in 2025. Source: China Customs, Mosaic MOSAIC CONFIDENTIAL 14

  15. Slide 15: Global Phosphate Market

    Global Phosphate Market Mil Tonnes Global Phosphate Shipments $/MT Benchmark DAP Stripping Margin DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP Calculated from Published Weekly Spot Prices 80 700 75 - 77 75 600 70 500 65 400 average 60 300 55 200 50 100 45 0 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24F 25F Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22

  16. Slide 16: Appendix

    Appendix

  17. Slide 17: 2024 Assumptions

    2024 Assumptions Pricing & Sensitivities FY 2023 Sensitivity Average DAP fob plant ($/tonne)(1) $573 $10 price = $70 mm adjusted EBITDA Average MOP fob mine ($/tonne)(2) $308 $10 price = $60 mm adjusted EBITDA BRL/USD(3) 5.00 Unhedged: $0.10 = $10 mm adjusted EBITDA (1) Approximately 20% of DAP pric

  18. Slide 18: Potash

    Potash Y/Y Adjusted EBITDA(1) Bridge Variance $(87) Q1 2024 Q1 2023 $267 $(46) Q3 2024 Q3 2023 Variance Sales Volumes (mt in millions) 1.996 2.220 (0.224) MOP Selling Price (FOB Mine) ($/mt) $ 215 $ 266 $ (51) MOP Cash Costs of Production ($/mt) $ 74 $ 73 $ 1 $(89) $ in millions $ in millions $13 $(

  19. Slide 19: Phosphate

    Phosphate Y/Y Adjusted EBITDA(1) Bridge + $64 Q3 2024 Q3 2023 Variance Sales Volumes (mt in millions) 1.475 1.651 (0.176) $130 $(65) DAP Selling Price (FOB Plant) ($/mt) $ 569 $ 487 $ 82 Production Volume (mt in millions) 1.625 1.593 0.032 $7 $265 FL Cash Rock Cost of Production ($/mt) $ 56 $ 56 $ -

  20. Slide 20: Mosaic Fertilizantes

    Mosaic Fertilizantes Y/Y Adjusted EBITDA(1) Bridge Q3 2024 Q3 2023 Variance Sales Volumes (mt in millions) 2.879 3.060 (0.181) Average Finished Product Selling Price ($/mt) $ 486 $ 566 $ (80) $(64) MAP Price (delivered price to third party) ($/mt) $ 601 $ 533 $ 68 $147 $(6) $8 $(3) $(63) Cash Rock C

  21. Slide 21: Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures

    Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures Consolidated Earnings (Loss) (in millions) Q3 2024 Q3 2023 Consolidated net earnings (loss) attributable to Mosaic $122 $(4) Less: Consolidated interest expense, net (42) (17) Plus: Consolidated depreciation, depletion and amortization 238 239 Plus: Accretion expe

  22. Slide 22: Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures

    Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures Potash Earnings (in millions) Q3 2024 Q3 2023 Operating earnings (loss) $109 $200 Plus: Depreciation, depletion and amortization 69 66 Plus: Accretion expense 2 2 Plus: Foreign exchange gain (loss) 48 (26) Plus: Other Income (Expense) - (43) Plus: Notable items (4

  23. Slide 23: Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures

    Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures Phosphate Earnings (in millions) Q3 2024 Q3 2023 Operating earnings (loss) $8 $(58) Plus: Depreciation, depletion and amortization 118 117 Plus: Accretion expense 20 16 Plus: Foreign exchange gain (loss) (5) 4 Plus: Other income (expense) 1 (6) Less: Earnings from

  24. Slide 24: Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures

    Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures Mosaic Fertilizantes Earnings (in millions) Q3 2024 Q3 2023 Operating earnings (loss) $56 $77 Plus: Depreciation, depletion and amortization 39 54 Plus: Accretion expense 4 5 Plus: Foreign exchange gain (loss) 17 (48) Plus: Other income (expense) (2) (1) Less: Ear

  25. Slide 25: ©2024 The Mosaic Company

    ©2024 The Mosaic Company

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