Selvaag Bolig Asa · OSL:SBO
Selvaag Bolig Asa — Q1 2022 Earnings Presentation
75 slides from Selvaag Bolig Asa's earnings presentation, May 25, 2022
Slide 1: Q1 2022
Q1 2022 Oslo, 25 May 2022 Sverre Molvik, CEO Christopher Brunvoll, CFO
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda Highlights Operational update Financial update Market Outlook and summary 2
Slide 3: Highlights Q1 2022
Highlights Q1 2022 · Strong Q1 sales · Strong operational results considering few deliveries · 1,361 units worth NOK 7bn under construction - 73% sold at quarter end · Construction cost secured at fixed rate for all units under construction Completed, ongoing and upcoming projects 3
Slide 4: Key financials Q1 2022
Key financials Q1 2022 356 17.1 Operating revenues Adjusted EBITDA* margin NOK million Per cent 758 14.0 Operating revenues (NGAAP) EBITDA** margin (NGAAP) NOK million Per cent * EBITDA is profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. EBITDA adjusted is excluding financial expenses i
Slide 5: Agenda
Agenda Highlights Operational update Financial update Market Outlook and summary 5
Slide 6: Sales value and units sold
Sales value and units sold Sales value Number of units sold per quarter NOK million Units 1 242 1 265 1 033 871 Q4 634 Q3 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 4.6 Q2 Q1 243 248 201 185 164 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 22 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total sales value Average sales value Note: Sales value is adjusted for Selva
Slide 7: Rolling sales value and units sold
Rolling sales value and units sold Sales value 12-month rolling Units sold 12-month rolling NOK million Units 4 034 4 012 894 888 907 904 3 859 3 757 3 803 826 5.0 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9 798 821 775 767 745 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 22 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 22 Total sales value Average sales value SB
Slide 8: Construction starts and completions
Construction starts and completions Construction starts and completions per quarter Units 456 334 318 142 148 134 120 113 95 74 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 22 Number of construction starts Number of units completed Note: Number of units are adjusted for Selvaag Bolig’s share in joint ventures. 8
Slide 9: Units under construction and completions
Units under construction and completions Sales value units under construction Expected completions per quarter NOK million Units 7 034 210 6 627 6 749 6 736 6 200 172 161 130 1 349 1 371 1 323 1 361 1 201 110 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 22 Q2 22 Q3 22 Q4 22 Q1 23 Q2 23 Sales value Number of units und
Slide 10: Business model minimizes risk
Business model minimizes risk Sales start Construction start • Binding contracts at fixed rates before sale 3 – 9 months 12 – 24 months start - Mitigate cost inflation risk Marketing Construction - Fixed construction cost secured for all units under and sale construction • Minimum presale of 60% bef
Slide 11: Agenda
Agenda Highlights Operational update Financial update Market Outlook and summary
Slide 12: Income statement highlights Q1 2022 (IFRS)
Income statement highlights Q1 2022 (IFRS) Operating revenues (IFRS) · 77 units delivered (124) NOK million - 1 unit from share of JVs (10) 1 554 · Revenues NOK 356m (568) - Other revenues NOK 14m (15) · Project costs NOK 253m (402) 887 - Of which NOK 9m is interest (11) 568 · Other costs NOK 49m (5
Slide 13: Income statement highlights Q1 2022 (NGAAP)
Income statement highlights Q1 2022 (NGAAP) Revenues and EBITDA margin (NGAAP)* 12 month-rolling revenues (NGAAP)* NOK million NOK million 858 881 3 395 3 462 3 317 3 308 795 3 208 774 758 19% 18% 17% 17% 17% 16% 15% 15% 14% 14% Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 22 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 22 Operating r
Slide 14: Cash flow development Q1 2022
Cash flow development Q1 2022 NOK million 401 276 86 694 527 Cash and cash equivalents at Changes in inventories CF from investment activities Net change in borrowings Cash and cash equivalents at 31 December 2021 (property) 31 March 2022 · Cash flow from operations negative at NOK 309m mainly due i
Slide 15: Balance sheet highlights Q1 2022
Balance sheet highlights Q1 2022 Balance sheet composition NOK million · Book value of equity NOK 26.5 per share 7 000 - Equity ratio 41.0% 6 000 · Changes from Q4 2021: Non-current assets 5 000 Equity - Inventories increased by NOK 285m - Trade and Other receivables decreased by 4 000 NOK 73m 3 000
Slide 16: Inventories (property) Q1 2022
Inventories (property) Q1 2022 Q4 21 vs Q1 22 Inventory value development NOK million 102 109 150 · Land value down NOK 26m 182 166 - Due to constructions starts · Work in progress up NOK 327m 3 543 3 584 3 199 2 983 2 872 - Mainly due to construction starts and few deliveries · Finished goods down
Slide 17: Debt structure
Debt structure Interest-bearing debt at 31.3.22 Drawn at NOK million 31.3.22 Interest rate Loan facility (NOKm) margin* Construction loan facilities from 1 1 569 1.65% - 2.40% a range of Nordic credit institutions 2 Land loans Urban Property** 751 3.75%*** NOK Land loan facilities from a range of 75
Slide 18: Return on equity (IFRS)
Return on equity (IFRS) 12-month rolling net income (NOKm) ROE (%) Q1 2020 Net income excluding Other gains of NOK 1 029m 770 739 655 613 610 567 520 530 530 495 505 471 479 466 397 401 354 356 366 335 326 27% 25% 24% 20% 22% 21% 20% 19% 20% 21% 19% 15% 15% 18% 17% 15% 13% 14% 13% 12% 14% Q1 17 Q2 1
Slide 19: Agenda
Agenda Highlights Operational update Financial update Market Outlook and summary
Slide 20: Estimated completions in Oslo well below forecasted need
Estimated completions in Oslo well below forecasted need Units 7 000 6 000 5 000 Forecasted housing need of ~3 700 units per year 4 000 Average number of (medium growth) completions (2006-21): ~3 000 units 3 000 2 000 2 400 1 500 1 000 800** 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022e
Slide 21: ~1 000 units received planning permission in Oslo in 2021
~1 000 units received planning permission in Oslo in 2021 • Only 1 010 planning permissions given in Oslo in 2021 (ex. student housing) • Forecasted housing need of 3,700 units per year Source: Oslo Agency for Planning and Building Services 21
Slide 22: Estimated completions in Akershus
Estimated completions in Akershus* Units 7 000 6 000 Forecasted housing need of Average # of ~4 500 units per year 5 000 completions (2006-21): (medium growth) ~3 000 units 4 000 4 200 3 600 3 000 2 000 2 400** 1 000 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022e 2023e 2024e Actual comple
Slide 23: Newbuild market update
Newbuild market update Oslo – 1.1 - 30.4, 2022 Akershus – 1.1 - 30.4, 2022 Units Units 1 352 1 511 3 624 3 465 517 671 948 794 Available Supplied to Sold Available Available Supplied to Sold Available 31.12.2021 market* 30.04.2022 31.12.2021 market* 30.04.2022 Source: SA - ECON Nye Boliger. * Adjust
Slide 24: Newbuild market update
Newbuild market update Bergen – 1.1 - 30.4, 2022 Trondheim – 1.1 - 30.4, 2022 Stavanger & Sandnes – 1.1 - 30.4, 2022 Units Units Units 514 724 415 407 159 371 1 146 936 801 676 684 589 Available Supplied to Sold Available Available Supplied to Sold Available Available Supplied to Sold Available 31.1
Slide 25: Regional Newbuild availability April, 2019-22
Regional Newbuild availability April, 2019-22 Units 4 000 3 000 2 000 3 195 1 000 794 936 684 589 0 Oslo Akershus* Bergen Trondheim Stavanger & Sandnes 2019 2020 2021 2022 Population** 700 000 685 000 287 000 210 000 265 000 Available units per 1.1 (1.4)*** 4.7 (5.1) 2.4 (2.3) 4.5 (5.1) 2.2 (3.5) 1
Slide 26: Regional Second-hand inventory, 2019-22
Regional Second-hand inventory on 12 May, 2019-22 Units 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 1639 1248 500 453 437 464 0 Oslo Akershus* Bergen Trondheim Stavanger-area** 2019 2020 2021 2022 Population*** 700 000 685 000 287 000 210 000 265 000 Available units per 2.3 1.8 1.6 2.1 1.8 1 000 capita 12 May 2022 Sour
Slide 27: Regional price development 1.1-30.4, 2010-22
Regional price* development 1.1-30.4, 2010-22 Oslo Bergen 9.7% 8.2% 7.8% 8.2% 7.9% 7.9% 7.1% 7.3% 7.0% 7.2% 7.0% 6.5% 6.7% 6.6% 5.9% 6.2% 6.2% 5.6% 4.8% 5.1% 5.0% 4.3% 4.3% 2.0% 0.7% 1.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20
Slide 28: Agenda
Agenda Highlights Operational update Financial update Market Outlook and summary
Slide 29: Outlook
Outlook · Housing shortage in Oslo area provides favorable conditions for new housing · The lending restriction of 5x income determines loan capacity before the ability to repay* · Solid pipeline – planning sales start for an additional 500 units in Q2 and Q3 2022 *At current interest rate level for
Slide 30: Summary
Summary · Strong Q1 sales · Strong operational results considering few deliveries · 1,361 units worth NOK 7bn under construction - 73% sold at quarter end · Construction cost secured at fixed rate for all units under construction 30
Slide 31: Thank you for your attention – follow us online!
Thank you for your attention – follow us online! Next event: 2nd quarter 2022 @SelvaagAksjen 17 August 2022
Slide 32: Appendix
Appendix
Slide 33: Return on equity (IFRS)
Return on equity (IFRS) 12 months rolling net income (NOKm) ROE (%) 12 months rolling net income (NOKm) ROE (%) Q1 2020 Net income excluding Other gains of NOK 1 029m Q1 2020 Net income including Other gains of NOK 1 029m 1 799 1 639 1 558 1 524 58% 770 53% 51% 610 45% 530 495 530 505 471 479 466 53
Slide 34: Earnings and dividend per share since IPO
Earnings and dividend per share since IPO Annual dividend and earnings per share Accumulated dividend and earnings per share 52.87 Earnings per share Earnings per share 48.80 7.04 47.47 Dividend per share Dividend per share 43.80 6.14 6.00 5.31 5.40 5.00 4.50 31.14 4.35 3.50 24.10 3.21 2.95 3.00 3.0
Slide 35: Dividend policy
Dividend policy Revised dividend policy: Selvaag Bolig’s ambition is to pay high and stable dividends to its owners. The company aims to pay dividends of minimum 60 per cent of net annual profit, paid in two instalments over the year. However, the size of the dividend will be weighed against the com
Slide 36: Share performance since IPO in June 2012
Share performance since IPO in June 2012 NOK 70 60 50 40 30 20 0.50 1.20 0.70 0.80 0.65 0.95 1.20 1.80 2.00 2.50 2.00 22.00 3.00 2.00 3.00 10 0 Share price Dividend Source: Oslo Børs. 36
Slide 37: Share information
Share information Number of shareholders 6 000 5 000 · Total number of shares: 93.8 million · Number of shareholders: 4 938 (4 746)* 4 000 - 20 largest controlling 83.2% (81.8) 3 000 - Selvaag AS largest shareholder - 53.5% · Trading 2 000 - 5.0 million shares during the quarter (4.4), 5.3% of total
Slide 38: Largest shareholders at 31.3, 2022
Largest shareholders at 31.3, 2022 Shareholder # of shares % share SELVAAG AS 50 180 087 53.5% Skandinav iska Enskilda Banken AB * 7 104 973 7.6% PARETO INVEST AS 4 311 772 4.6% VERDIPAPIRFONDET ALFRED BERG GAMBA 3 117 700 3.3% The Northern Trust Comp, London Br * 2 158 000 2.3% JPMorgan Chase Bank,
Slide 39: Addressing the long term housing need
Addressing the long term housing need · Nearly 60 000 homes over the last 70 years Trondheim 294 units · Housing for all Bergen 603 units Greater-Oslo · Focus on fast growing urban regions 8 219 units Stockholm Stavanger 790 units · Large projects with more than 150 units 691 units 39
Slide 40: Positioned to realize large projects in Norway's four largest growing urban areas
Positioned to realize large projects in Norway’s four largest growing urban areas Land-bank strategy Land bank exposure Geographical spread • Acquire the right mix of zoned and unzoned land in suitable locations • Land acquisitions in defined core areas • High degree of site utilisation and strategi
Slide 41: Change in needs calls for new concepts
Change in needs calls for new concepts Selvaag Pluss • Lifestyle concept • Attractive common areas • Professional hosting services • Service offerings and good neighbourliness, make every day living easier • Guestrooms for family and friends • Work-out- and fitness centre Selvaag City • Urban lifest
Slide 42: Ongoing and upcoming large projects in Greater Oslo
Ongoing and upcoming large projects in Greater Oslo Lørenskog stasjonsby | Skårerbyen | Greater Oslo Bjerke | Oslo Fornebu | Greater Oslo Greater Oslo · ~ 1 100 units total · ~ 1 200 units total · ~ 2 000 units total (50/50 JV) · ~ 1 500 units total · ~ 250 Pluss units · ~ 300 Pluss units · ~ 500 Pl
Slide 43: Ongoing and upcoming large regional projects
Ongoing and upcoming large regional projects RingvePluss | Trondheim Sandsli | Bergen Elveparken | Stavanger- Fredrikstad | Greater Oslo area · ~ 600 units total · ~ 600 units total · ~ 1 500 units · ~ 600 units total · ~ 400 Pluss units · ~ 250 Pluss units · ~ 400 Pluss units · ~ 250 Pluss units ·
Slide 44: Oslo second-hand market update
Oslo second-hand market update Units sold 1.1 - 31.3, 2010-22 Inventory 31.3, 2010-22 Units Units 6 000 6 000 5 000 5 000 4 000 4 000 3 000 3 000 2 000 2 000 1 000 1 000 0 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Source: Eiendoms
Slide 45: Bergen second-hand market update
Bergen second-hand market update Units sold 1.1 - 31.3, 2010-22 Inventory 31.3, 2010-22 Units Units 2 000 2 000 1 500 1 500 1 000 1 000 500 500 0 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Source: Eiendomsverdi. 45
Slide 46: Trondheim second-hand market update
Trondheim second-hand market update Units sold 1.1 - 31.3, 2010-22 Inventory 31.3, 2010-22 Units Units 2 000 2 000 1 500 1 500 1 000 1 000 500 500 0 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Source: Eiendomsverdi. 46
Slide 47: Stavanger-area second-hand market update
Stavanger-area* second-hand market update Units sold 1.1 - 31.3, 2010-22 Inventory 31.3, 2010-22 Units Units 2 000 2 000 1 500 1 500 1 000 1 000 500 500 0 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Source: Eiendomsverdi. * Includes
Slide 48: Regional price development April, 2012-22
Regional price* development April, 2012-22 Oslo Bergen 2.7% 2.8% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.2% 1.3% 1.8% 0.9% 1.4% 0.6% 1.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.6% -0.1% 0.2% 0.1% -0.7% -0.7% -0.6% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Trondheim Stavanger a
Slide 49: Land bank in Oslo and Greater Oslo at 31.3.22
Land bank in Oslo and Greater Oslo at 31.3.22 Bærum 2 229 units Jessheim 102 units Lørenskog 1 641 units Avløs 504 units Gardermovegen 102 units Lørenskog Stasjonsby 613 units 102 Ballerud 150 units units Skårer Bolig 590 units Løren/Økern/Ensjø 324 units Eyvind Lyches vei 123 units LSV 300 units Si
Slide 50: Land bank in Stavanger area at 31.3.22
Land bank in Stavanger area at 31.3.22 Stavanger 178 units Lervig brygge 178 units Sola 154 units 154 Jaasund 154 units units 178 Stavanger units Sandnes 359 units Aase gård 38 units Sandnes Vågen 300 units Sola Luratoppen 21 units Sandnes 359 units * The numbers are adjusted for Selvaag Bolig’s sha
Slide 51: Land bank in Bergen, Trondheim and Stockholm at 31.3.22
Land bank in Bergen, Trondheim and Stockholm at 31.3.22 Trondheim 294 units Heimdal 42 units Sweden Haakon VII gate 4 252 units 294 units Bergen 603 units Sandsliåsen 57 64 units Stockholm 790 units Sandsliåsen 59 65 units Løvholmen 50 units Finland Sandsliåsen 46 150 units Norway Årsta 140 units To
Slide 52: Cooperation with Urban Property from 1.1.2021
Cooperation with Urban Property from 1.1.2021 Selvaag Bolig sold most of its land bank to Urban Property in January 2020, entering a long-term and strategic partnership. Urban Property is a financially sound, well capitalized and predictable partner. • How it works: • Benefits for Selvaag Bolig: - U
Slide 53: Reduced capital binding in practice, in effect no equity needed for land
Reduced capital binding in practice, in effect no equity needed in Selvaag Bolig for land Residential development value chain: cooperation between Selvaag Bolig and Urban Property Acquisition of land Zoning Sales start Construction start Delivery 6 – 36 months 6 – 12 months 3 – 9 months 12 – 24 mont
Slide 54: Example project calculations before and after
Example project calculations before and after PROJECT CALCULATIONS PROJECT CALCULATIONS 1 BEFORE URBAN PROPERTY 2 AFTER URBAN PROPERTY Figures for illustration purposes only MNOK % MNOK % Sales revenue 348.5 100.0% 348.5 100.0% Construction cost 195.8 56.2% 195.8 56.2% Land cost 69.7 20.0% 85.2 24.4
Slide 55: Margin development through project stages
Margin development through project stages* 6 – 36 MONTHS 6 – 12 MONTHS 3 – 9 MONTHS 12 – 24 MONTHS 0 MONTHS Acquire and refine Contracting, marketing Project design Construction and sales Delivery to customers land for development and pre-sales Project margin 20% 15% Project margin 10% 18% 5% 0% · L
Slide 56: Project margin development
Project margin development NOK million 3 342 3 406 3 239 3 204 3 277 3 215 3 271 3 264 3 251 3 179 3 165 3 152 3 038 2 929 2 683 2 586 2 377 28% 28% 29% 28% 26% 26% 26% 27% 26% 27% 26% 25% 24% 23% 21% 20% 20% Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q
Slide 57: Substantial portfolio for development
Substantial portfolio for development Total land bank portfolio at 31.3.2022 Units 5 250 10 600 5 350 Total land bank Options and obligations to acquire Land bank in balance sheet 57
Slide 58: Valuation of remaining land bank
Valuation of remaining land bank* NOK million 519 1 426 907 Book value at 31.12.2021 Gap Valuation Nov 2021 (60 Grader Næringsmegling) * SBO land bank not included in the UP transaction 58
Slide 59: Value of units sold - gross and net
Value of units sold - gross and net Sales value of units sold NOK million 1 393 1 431 1 401 1 401 1 320 209 1 177 1 104 1 031 914 920 927 862 861 859 788 731 660 487 443 1 242 394 1 265 1 183 1 106 1 033 1 010 840 910 871 751 771 756 705 696 693 634 614 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 1
Slide 60: Number of units sold - gross and net
Number of units sold - gross and net Number of units sold Units 209 270 276 274 238 216 225 207 203 201 209 187 192 196 182 186 487 169 158 443 394 243 248 210 199 190 178 185 181 182 178 165 168 159 164 148 140 142 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20
Slide 61: Q1 2022 proforma figures including proportionate share of JV
Q1 2022 proforma figures including proportionate share of JV Operating revenues (IFRS) NOK million · 77 units delivered (124) 1 681 · Revenues NOK 361 (636) - Other revenues NOK 16m (19) 1 337 · Project costs NOK 255m (456) - Of which NOK 9m is interest (12) 636 645 · Other costs NOK 57m (65) 361 ·
Slide 62: Income statement IFRS
Income statement IFRS (figures in NOK million) Q1 2022 Q1 2021 2021 Total operating revenues 356.2 567.9 3 402.7 Project expenses (253.2) (401.2) (2 617.4) Other operating expenses (46.3) (54.7) (236.4) Associated companies and joint ventures (5.0) 6.0 109.7 EBITDA 51.8 117.9 658.6 Depreciation and
Slide 63: Balance sheet
Balance sheet (figures in NOK million) Q1 2022 Q1 2021 2021 Intangible assets 383.4 383.4 383.4 Property, plant and equipment 8.2 7.1 7.4 Investments in associated companies and joint ventures 239.4 407.9 354.7 Other non-current assets 340.5 255.9 302.3 Total non-current assets 971.5 1 054.3 1 047.7
Slide 64: Cash flow statement
Cash flow statement (figures in NOK million) Q1 2022 Q1 2021 2021 Net cash flow from operating activities (308.5) (87.8) 392.6 Net cash flow from investment activities 86.4 (5.6) 167.1 Net cash flow from financing activities 389.1 (94.0) (917.6) Net change in cash and cash equivalents 167.0 (187.4)
Slide 65: Operational highlights – key operating figures
Operational highlights – key operating figures Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 22 Units sold 248 173 125 276 201 Construction starts 134 142 148 456 113 Units completed 95 120 318 334 74 Units deliv ered 124 132 314 324 77 Units under construction 1 349 1 371 1 201 1 323 1 361 Proportion of sold units un
Slide 66: EBITDA Q1 2022
EBITDA Q1 2022 Property (figures in NOK million) development Other Total Operating revenues 745.0 12.9 757.9 Project expenses (602.9) (0.1) (603.0) Other operating expenses (5.9) (42.7) (48.6) EBITDA (percentage of completion) 136.2 (30.0) 106.2 Note: Construction costs are exclusive of financial ex
Slide 67: Norwegian housing market
Norwegian housing market · Low risk for housebuilders · Advance sales: banks require that 50-70% of homes are sold before construction starts · Binding offers: offer to purchase is a binding sales contract, and requires a minimum 10% cash deposit · High level of home ownership · 85% (one of the worl
Slide 68: Total household debt and homeownership
Total household debt and homeownership 257% 247% 236% 223% 91% 80% 200% 82% 79% 74% 76% 75% 71% 71% 72% 69% 69% 64% 65% 64% 61% 149% 55% 142% 51% 131% 123% 122% 117% 42% 105% 98% 96% 90% 88% 83% 76% 76% Household debt in % of net disposable income (2020) Homeownership rate (2019) Source: OECD, Stati
Slide 69: Shift in demographics trigger new housing needs
Shift in demographics trigger new housing needs Annual population growth* by age Number of people by age in 2020 6% 200 000 150 000 4% 100 000 2% 50 000 0% 0 -2% OSLO STAVANGER BERGEN TRONDHEIM OSLO STAVANGER BERGEN TRONDHEIM 19-23 24-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ 16-23 24-34 34-44 45-54 55-64 65-7
Slide 70: Price development Norway and selected regions (2005-22)
Price development Norway and selected regions (2005-22) Price development (rebased 1.1.2005) 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Norway Oslo Bergen Stavanger-area* Trondheim Source: Eiendomsverdi. * Stavanger area includes: Randaberg, Sandnes, Sola, Stavanger. 70
Slide 71: Increasing share of population growth in Oslo and Akershus
Increasing share of population growth in Oslo and Akershus 55% 55% 45% 43% 42% 40% 25.3 % 38% 35% 35% 25.1 % 35% 24.9 % 33% 24.8 % 24.6 % 24.5 % 24.3 % 24.0 % 24.2 % 23.9 % 23.7 % 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Share of total population in Oslo and Akershus Share of total pop
Slide 72: Immigration increases demand over time
Immigration increases demand over time Homeownership rate among immigrants in Norway (per year living in Norway) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
Slide 73: Norway – relatively limited volatility
Norway – relatively limited volatility GDP growth 2013 - 2023e Unemployment 2013 - 2023e 10% 10% 8% 5% 6% 0% 4% -5% 2% -10% 0% 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023e 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023e Norway Sweden Denmark Germany UK Norway Sweden Denmark Germany UK Population growth 2020 - 2030e and 2040e
Slide 74: Norway – moving back to normal through 2022
Norway – moving back to normal in through 2022 Real economy 2019 - 2024e Demand 2019 - 2024e 6% 10% 4% 5% 2% 0% 0% -5% -2% -4% -10% 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024E 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e GDP GDP mainland Unemployment rate Mainland demand Household consumption Housing investment Wages &
Slide 75: SELVAAG BOLIG
SELVAAG BOLIG