Slide 1: ASX announcement cover letter: FY16 Outlook & Guidance
26 February 2016 The Manager For personal use only Company Announcements Office ASX Limited 20 Bridge Street SYDNEY NSW 2000 GRAINCORP LIMITED: GNC INVESTOR PRESENTATION FY16 OUTLOOK & GUIDANCE Please find attached the Investor Presentation relating to GrainCorp’s FY16 outlook and guidance. GrainCor
Slide 2: FY16 Outlook & Guidance
FY16 Outlook & Guidance 26 February 2016 For personal use only
Slide 3: Disclaimer
Disclaimer For personal use only This presentation includes both information that is historical in character and information that consists of forward looking statements. Forward looking statements are not based on historical facts, but are based on current expectations of future results or events. T
Slide 4: Agenda
Agenda For personal use only • FY16 outlook • FY16 earnings guidance • Winter crop post-harvest review / strategic initiatives 3
Slide 5: Grains outlook – subdued export demand for Australian grain continues
Grains outlook – subdued export demand for Australian grain continues Market fundamentals GrainCorp FY16 outlook For personal use only • Eastern Australian crop production estimate of • Carry-in: 1.6mmt at historically low levels (FY15: 17.7mmt(1) (FY15: 16.5mmt) 1.9mmt) Storage & Logistics (S&L) •
Slide 6: Below normal grain stocks resulting in lower S&L volumes
Below normal grain stocks resulting in lower S&L volumes For personal use only FY16 FY16 Drivers (mmt) FY15 FY16 Outlook YTD(1) Outlook Eastern Australia Grain 16.5 17.7(2) Production • At historically low levels Grain carry-in (1-Oct) 1.9 1.6 • Limited early season export program Storage & Logistic
Slide 7: Processing outlook – well placed through strong competitive position
Processing outlook – well placed through strong competitive position For personal use only Market fundamentals GrainCorp FY16 outlook • Global barley crop production ~143.4mmt(1) • Forward sales of 1.2mmt YTD (FY15: 141.5mmt) • Malt sales volume: ~1.3mmt (FY15: 1.25mmt) • Beer demand in mature marke
Slide 8: FY16 Earnings Guidance
FY16 Earnings Guidance For personal use only EBITDA NPAT • Underlying EBITDA (before significant • Underlying NPAT (before significant items): Guidance items): $240M – $270M $40M – $55M • Includes 60% share of Allied Mills NPAT before significant items Variables • Depreciation & Amortisation: ~$140M
Slide 9: Winter crop post harvest review & strategic initiatives
Winter crop post harvest review & strategic initiatives For personal use only Production & Receivals • Slightly below average levels of grain production in eastern Australia with mixed quality • Winter receivals of 7.2mmt year-to-date, representing upcountry market share of ~45% in line with prior y