Slide 1: Earnings Presentation – 2020 Q4 & Full Year Results
Earnings Presentation – 2020 Q4 & Full Year Results March 4, 2021
Slide 2: Cautionary Statement
Cautionary Statement Certain statements in this presentation are “forward looking statements,” which reflect the expectations of management regarding the Company's future growth, results of operations, performance and business prospects and opportunities. These forward-looking statements are made as
Slide 3: Key Terms
Key Terms • Buses manufactured by New Flyer and ADL's single and double deck buses are classified as "transit buses". ARBOC manufactures body on- chassis or “cutaway” and "medium-duty" buses that service transit, paratransit, and shuttle applications. Collectively, transit buses, medium- duty buses
Slide 4: Electric Bus Mobility and ZEB Leadership
20+ million Electric service miles completed(1) 1,371 Leading ZEBs delivered since 2015(2) Electric Bus Mobility 389 ZEBs delivered in 2020 (9% of total deliveries) 80+ 50+ Cities with an NFI ZEB in service or on order Years of electric bus experience 632 105k ZEBs in backlog (5.8% of total backlog)
Slide 5: Q4 2020 Executive Summary
Q4 2020 Executive Summary • Solid performance exceeded revised 2020 Adjusted EBITDA guidance; positions NFI for recovery • NFI Forward transformation achieved its targets in Fiscal 2020 • $17.0 million in Adjusted EBITDA savings from 2019 levels • Additional $1.0 million in annualized Free Cash Flow
Slide 6: Backlog and Q4 2020 New Vehicle Deliveries
Backlog and Q4 2020 New Vehicle Deliveries BACKLOG – FIRM AND OPTION BACKLOG – TIMING BACKLOG – BY PRODUCT Medium- Firm Options Duty and Low-Floor 12,157 Cutaway 10,833 10,742 4% 8,504 7,971 7,184 6,518 Motor 5,264 Coach 14% 4,186 3,649 4,224 3,240 Q4 ‘20 YTD Option Conversion Rate = 38% HD Transit
Slide 7: Q4 2020 Income Statement and Balance Sheet
Q4 2020 Income Statement and Balance Sheet Q4 2020 Performance Q4 2020 Cash Flow & Liquidity Q4 2019 Q4 2020 Cash Flow ($M) Sales $917.7M $711.5M 2019 Q4 2020 Q4 $103.9 Adjusted EBITDA $103.9 $65.0 Adjusted 11.3% 9.1% Interest Expense ($15.6) ($15.2) EBITDA(1) ROS $65.0 ROS Current Income Tax ($30.9
Slide 8: FY 2020: Income statement and balance sheet
FY 2020: Income statement and balance sheet FY 2020 Performance FY 2020 Cash Flow & Liquidity FY 2019 FY 2020 Cash Flow ($M) Sales $2,893.4M $2,419.2M FY 2019 FY 2020 $322.2 Adjusted EBITDA $322.2 $157.7 Adjusted 11.1% 6.5% Interest Expense ($50.5) ($61.8) EBITDA(1) ROS $157.7 ROS Current Income Tax
Slide 9: Net Earnings and Adjusted Net Earnings
Net Earnings and Adjusted Net Earnings Net Earnings ($M) Adjusted Net Earnings ($M)(1) Q4 '19¹ $34 $0.55 per share Q4 '19 $31 $0.49 per share Q4 '20¹ $9 $0.14 per share Q4 '20 $8 $0.13 per share LTM Q4 '19 $58 $0.93 per share LTM Q4 '19 $102 $1.65 per share LTM Q4 '20 ($158) ($2.52) per share LTM Q4
Slide 10: NFI Forward Update
NFI Forward Update Timing for 2020-2023 Benefits Cumulative $10.0 ($M) $8.6 $6.8 All NFI Forward $60 $67 Initiatives $1.0 $47 At or Above In Year In Year In Year Targets $17 ~$30M ~$13M ~$7M 2020 2021 2022 2023 Cash Flow on Track for Adjusted EBITDA Free Cash Flow (FCF) $10M+ • Solid NFI Forward pro
Slide 11: 2021 Guidance
2021 Guidance • Driven by market recovery in NA Bus and Revenue Coach and UK transit $2.8 billion to $2.9 billion • Continued growth of ARBOC in cutaway and ZEBs expected to make up 20% to 25% medium-duty markets of 2021 manufacturing revenue • ADL’s international expansion in Europe and APAC • Expe
Slide 12: Bid Universe Declines Driven largely by Coach Market
Bid Universe Declines Driven largely by Coach Market, but Overall Levels Remain Strong Canada and US Public Market Bid Universe 35,000 297 EUs Bids in Process Bids Submitted 5 Year Forecast Bids in Process 30,000 25,000 3,735 EUs 20,000 Bids Submitted 15,000 20,346 EUs Five Year Procurement Outlook
Slide 13: Positive Political Momentum Supports Capital Purchases
Positive Political Momentum Supports Capital Purchases Unprecedented government support for zero-emission transit $14.9B transit funding Proposed $494B Ten Point Plan for a program (Feb 2021 announcement) INVEST in America Act; Green Industrial including a 5x increase Revolution (Nov 2020) $1.5B CIB
Slide 14: Market Update: North American Heavy Duty Transit
Market Update: North American Heavy Duty Transit 41% Market Share (2019) * waiting on final external 2020 data Source: Metro Magazine / Management Estimates 1 All Deliveries in Equivalent Units. *2020 Volume Range Projection is Management Estimates 1 All Deliveries in Equivalent Units. 14 *2020-2024
Slide 15: Market Update: Private Under Continued Pressure
Market Update: Private Under Continued Pressure Canada and U.S. Motor Coach Market(1) COVID-19 Impact on NA Coach Market • Total market decreased by 58.1% year-over-year • 193 EUs delivered in Q4 2020 (vs 330 EUs in 2019 Q4) 2,470 2,385 2,357 2,324 2,305 2,274 • Starting to see slow recovery with re
Slide 16: Positioned for Growth and Margin Enhancement
Positioned for Growth and Margin Enhancement Recovery, NFI Forward, and Leading the ZEvolution 2020 – 2025 REVENUE ($M) $3,900 to $4,100 $2,800 to $2,900 $2,419 16% - 20% 8%+ CAGR Growth (2021-2025) 2020 2021 2025 Guidance Target ADJ EBITDA ($M)(1) $400 to $450 $220 to $240 $158 40% - 50% 16%+ CAGR
Slide 17: NFI Summary & Outlook
NFI Summary & Outlook • Current backlog and 2020 deferrals provide base for 2021 volumes, but anticipate 2021 deliveries will remain lower than pre-COVID-19 levels Solid Q4 and FY 2020 • Positioning for market recovery with a streamlined, leaner operation to drive volume Results leverage Significant
Slide 18: Appendices
Appendices ‘NFL Leading the ZEvolution.
Slide 19: Forward-Looking Statements and Non-IFRS Measures
Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements in this presentation are “forward-looking statements”, which reflect the current expectations of management regarding the Company's future growth, financial performance and financial position and the Company’s strategic initiatives, plans, business prosp
Slide 20: Appendix: Key Definitions
Appendix: Key Definitions • Adjusted EBITDA: Earnings before interest, income taxes, depreciation and amortization after adjusting for the effects of certain non- recurring and/or non-operations related items that do not reflect the current ongoing cash operations of the Company. These adjustments i
Slide 21: Appendix: Financial Highlights
Appendix: Financial Highlights $M (except EU a nd EPS) Q4 YTD 2020 2019 Change 2020 2019 Change Deliveries (EUs) 1,230 1,845 (33.3%) 4,371 5,315 (17.8%) Revenue $711.5 $917.7 (22.5%) $2,419.2 $2,893.4 (16.4%) Gross Profit $86.2 $138.0 (37.6%) $199.3 $413.5 (51.8%) Gross Profit % 12.1% 15.0% (1945bps
Slide 22: Appendix: Non-IFRS Reconciliation (2020)
Appendix: Non-IFRS Reconciliation (2020) Reconciliation of IFRS to non-IFRS As of December 27 2020 First Second Third Forth In '000 Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Full Year Net Sales $ 710,384 $ 333,334 $ 663,922 $ 711,523 $ 2,419,163 Net Earnings $ (67,239) $ (74,049) $ (24,913) $ 8,465 $ (157,736
Slide 23: Appendix: Non-IFRS Reconciliation (2019)
Appendix: Non-IFRS Reconciliation (2019) Reconciliation of IFRS to non-IFRS Year Ending December 29, 2019 First Second Third Fourth Full In '000 Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Year Net Sales $ 566,995 $ 683,353 $ 725,347 $ 917,741 $ 2,893,436 Net Earnings $ 16,149 $ 8,507 $ (1,085) $ 34,127 $ 57,69
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