ASML Holding NV · EURONEXT:ASML
ASML Holding NV — Investor Day (November 2022)
24 slides from ASML Holding NV's investor day presentation, Nov 11, 2022
Slide 1: Business model and capital allocation strategy
Business model and capital allocation strategy Roger Dassen Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Investor Day Veldhoven Public
Slide 2: Business model and capital allocation strategy: Key messages
Business model and capital allocation strategy Key messages Investments create Our continued investments in technology leadership have created significant shareholder value value Growth in Growth in semiconductor end markets and increasing lithography intensity on future nodes fuel demand for our pr
Slide 3: Historical shareholder value creation
Historical shareholder value creation Continuing growth Continued shareholder value creation November 11, 2022 Page 3 Public
Slide 4: ASML's technology leadership comes from strategic investments
ASML’s technology leadership comes from strategic investments that enable cost-effective innovations for our customers Growth methods Investments Organic growth by investments in R&D and Capex 4.7 Berliner Glas acquisition (€0.3bn) Strategic acquisitions and Carl Zeiss SMT Holding acquisition 24.9%
Slide 5: ASML's EPS has grown at a CAGR of 18% since 2010
ASML’s EPS has grown at a CAGR of 18% since 2010 driven by revenue growth, improved margins and share buybacks Growth drivers Revenue/Gross margin/EPS 14.36 32.0 • Systems revenue grew at a 12% CAGR since 2010 54% • Installed Base Management* grew 27.0 8.49 53% at a 21% CAGR since 2010 driven 6.10 6
Slide 6: ASML created significant shareholder value over the period 2010-2022
ASML created significant shareholder value over the period 2010-2022* ASML outgrows markets indices Total Shareholder Return 3,000 Total Shareholder Return (TSR) annualized compounded : 2,500 • ASML (Nasdaq) : 24% • Semiconductor index - SOX 18% 2,000 • Technology index - Nasdaq 14% in $ 1,500 1,000
Slide 7: Continuing growth
Historical shareholder value creation Continuing growth Continued shareholder value creation November 11, 2022 Page 7 Public
Slide 8: Model scenarios
Model scenarios Model assumptions Scenarios End markets Wafer demand Litho spend 2025 2030 Start with end markets Convert to wafer demand: Translate to worldwide High High High – Low scenarios units, convert to ASML Low Low share Installed Base Estimate growth of our Management Installed Base busine
Slide 9: Semi end markets expected to grow 9% through 2030
Semi end markets expected to grow 9% through 2030 All markets contributing; Datacenter, Automotive and Industrial expected to outperform Smartphone ($bn) Personal Computing ($bn) Consumer Electronics ($bn) 21 +6% +3% 125 12 12 1 1 1 150 15 115 10 11 1 5 12 1 +9% 11 102 100 10 115 105 11 2 1 2 50 5 1
Slide 10: Translating to expected growth of wafer demand in all segments
Translating to expected growth of wafer demand in all segments Higher growth for advanced Logic, mature markets and Technological sovereignty and foundry competition compared to CMD 2021 Capacity (million wafer/year) 300 mm equivalent Cost-effective innovations ~10% inefficiency or an additional • T
Slide 11: Lithography spend increasing on future nodes
Lithography spend increasing on future nodes Advanced Logic (≤ 28 nm) DRAM NAND 45 kwspm* 100 kwspm 120 kwspm 100% 100% 100% Spend % by Wavelength 80% 80% 80% 60% 60% 60% 40% 40% 40% 20% 20% 20% 0% 0% 0% 7 nm 5 nm 3 nm 2 nm 1.x nm 1 nm 1Z 1A 1B 1C 0A 0B 0C 92L 128L 176L 2xxL 3xxL 4xxL 5xxL Lithograp
Slide 12: Mature markets drive DUV spend
Mature markets drive DUV spend Power Mature Logic/Analog Sensors 45K wafers/month Non-Optical Optical 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 250 nm 130 nm 45 nm 250 nm 40 nm ArFi ArF KrF i-line November 11, 2022 Page 12 Public
Slide 13: Installed Base Management: growing installed base provides opportunity for growth
Installed Base Management*: growing installed base provides opportunity for growth in service and upgrades Growth drivers: Installed Base Management: services and upgrades • Growing installed base 14 population • Service: move to value-based Installed Base Management revenue (€bn) 12 services • Upgr
Slide 14: Model assumptions 2025 & 2030
Model assumptions 2025 & 2030 Market share assumptions: EUV 100%, ArFi 90%, Dry 65% Advanced Logic (≤ 28 nm) DRAM NAND General • EUV High-NA high volume from 2025/2026 • EUV High-NA from 2026 • Storage class memory remains a niche • 2-year cadence • <2-year cadence • 3D NAND: stack of stacks & CMOS
Slide 15: Our updated model for 2025 goes beyond our high-market scenario from CMD 2021
Our updated model for 2025 goes beyond our high-market scenario from CMD 2021 Market System units Total sales opportunity (in €bn) CMD 2021 CMD 2022 CMD 2022 CMD 2021 CMD 2022 CMD 2022 High Units ASML Units ASML Units ASML Sales Sales Sales 2025 2025 2030 2025 2025 2030 EUV High-NA 0.55 5 5 30 Syste
Slide 16: Higher sales across all product portfolio in 2025 and 2030 modeled scenario
Higher sales across all product portfolio translates to increase in 2025 and 2030 modeled scenario Growth drivers ASML 2025 - 2030 sales build up (mid point of range) CMD CMD 2022 CMD 2022 • Increase in EUV and 2021 Sales development Sales development Non EUV* is driven by 2025 2025 2030 increase in
Slide 17: And increasing litho as a percentage of semi market
And increasing litho as a percentage of semi market Drivers Litho/Semi industry sales ratio • Semi industry sales growing faster this decade than in previous decades 6% • Higher semi market growth requires increased upfront Capex 5% investments to enable future semi growth 4% • Equipment portion wit
Slide 18: ASML updated financial model
ASML updated financial model CMD 2021 CMD 2022 CMD 2022 Actuals Low - High market Low - High market Low - High market 2021 2025 2025 2030 Total sales 18.6€bn ~24 – 30€bn ~30 – 40€bn ~44 – 60€bn Installed Base 5.0€bn ~6 – €bn ~7 – €bn ~11 – 1 €bn Management* System sales 1 . €bn ~18 – 2 €bn ~23 – 2€b
Slide 19: Our flexible operating model can deal with the industry volatility and uncertainties
Our flexible operating model can deal with the industry volatility and uncertainties Flexible workforce Outsourced R&D Systems Cost of Goods (COG) at Employees R&D spend, B€ Standard, composition Additional flexibility through the Majority of systems COG is hour bank and other measures externally so
Slide 20: Continued shareholder value creation
Historical shareholder value creation Continuing growth Continued shareholder value creation November 11, 2022 Page 24 Public
Slide 21: ASML's capital return policy
ASML’s capital return policy Maintain a strong and flexible balance sheet Focused investment in our business through R&D, Capex Excess cash distribution • Combination of growing dividends and share buybacks 4.7 • A new share buyback program, effective today, to be executed by Berliner Glas acquisiti
Slide 22: Business model and capital allocation strategy: Key messages
Business model and capital allocation strategy Key messages Investments create Our continued investments in technology leadership have created significant shareholder value value Growth in Growth in semiconductor end markets and increasing lithography intensity on future nodes fuel demand for our pr
Slide 23: Forward Looking Statements
Forward Looking Statements This document and related discussions contain statements that are forward-looking within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements with respect to expected trends, including trends in end markets and the technology indus
Slide 24: Public
Public