Thai Oil Public Co. Ltd. · SET:TOP
Thai Oil Public — Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation
52 slides from Thai Oil Public's earnings presentation, Nov 11, 2021
Slide 1: Q3 & 9M/21 Analyst Presentation
Thai Oil Public Company Limited Q3 & 9M/21 Analyst Presentation 11 November 2021 Time : 10:00 - 12:00 hrs. Online Channel : TOP IR Application, Facebook Live, MST
Slide 2: Disclaimer
-2- Disclaimer The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it. Some statements mad
Slide 3: Presentation Agenda (Q3 & 9M/21)
-3- Presentation Agenda (Q3 & 9M/21) KEY HIGHLIGHTS PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OUTLOOK FINAL REMARKS
Slide 4: Key Highlights
-4- KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Slide 5: Pandemic Recovery – The Worst Is Over
-5- Pandemic Recovery – The Worst Is Over Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Market Highlight Q3 & 9M/21 Highlight 1 COVID-19 Pandemic Recovery Improving Petroleum Demand Accelerated Widespread Immunization Improving Gasoline Demand Vaccination rate Share of people vaccinated against C
Slide 6: Energy Crisis – A Tailwind
-6- Energy Crisis – A Tailwind Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Market Highlight Q3 & 9M/21 Highlight 2 Energy Crisis Impact to Oil Prices & Refining Margin Shortages of Global Gas & Coal Crude Oil Prices Hit Multi-Year High $/bbl Dubai Price Dec’20 Oct’21 100 DB 49.8 81.5 +64% 80 CO
Slide 7: Recovery On Its Way
-7- Recovery On Its Way Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Market Highlight Q3 & 9M/21 Highlight • More stock gain from rising crude oil prices • Higher gasoil & fuel oil sales on high potential gas-to-oil substitution • Improving domestic sales from reopening country to fully vaccinat
Slide 8: Q3 & 9M/21 Performance
-8--8- Q3 & 9M/21 Performance Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Market Highlight Q3 & 9M/21 Highlight QoQ Dubai rose from $71.6/bbl to $72.6/bbl Dubai ($/bbl) (ending price) YoY Dubai rose from $41.5/bbl to $72.6/bbl 71.6 72.6 72.6 Crude • Oil demand recovery from improving COVID-19 s
Slide 9: Q3 & 9M/21 Performance
Q3 & 9M/21 Performance -9- Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Market Highlight Q3 & 9M/21 Highlight TOP Group Net Profit Unit :Million Baht (MB) Q2/21 Q3/21 9M/20 9M/21 Net Profit Contributions *Excluding Stock g/(l) & one-time items 2,123 MB 2,063 MB (10,559) MB 7,545 MB 7% 9% 22% 22%
Slide 10: Performance Analysis
-10- PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS
Slide 11: Refinery: Lower Utilization as Softening Domestic Oil Demand
-11- Refinery: Lower Utilization as Softening Domestic Oil Demand Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Refinery Aromatic Base Oil GIM Power Olefins All Business F/S & Others TOP/ Domestic Refinery Utilization Rate Domestic Oil Demand Unit: % Utilization Rate Mogas Jet/Kero Gasoil Total Q
Slide 12: Refinery: Stronger Mkt GRM On Improving Petroleum Demand
-12- Refinery: Stronger Mkt GRM On Improving Petroleum Demand Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Refinery Aromatic Base Oil GIM Power Olefins All Business F/S & Others Dubai Crude Price & Key Petroleum Product Spreads Refinery Utilization 2020 2021 2020 Q2/21 Q3/21 9M/20 9M/21 $/bbl Q1
Slide 13: Aromatic: Softening Contribution Pressured by BZ Margin
-13- Aromatic: Softening Contribution Pressured by BZ Margin Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Refinery Aromatic Base Oil GIM Power Olefins All Business F/S & Others Aromatic Spreads and Margins Aromatics Production 2020 2021 2020 Q2/21 Q3/21 9M/20 9M/21 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 9M
Slide 14: Base Oil: Softening Contribution Pressured by Lower Lube Spread
-14- Base Oil: Softening Contribution Pressured by Lower Lube Spread Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Refinery Aromatic Base Oil GIM Power Olefins All Business F/S & Others Base Oil & Bitumen Spreads & Margins Base oil Production 2020 2021 2020 Q2/21 Q3/21 9M/20 9M/21 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3
Slide 15: Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost
-15- Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Refinery Aromatic Base Oil GIM Power Olefins All Business F/S & Others Gross Refining Margin Refinery’s Cash Cost (Unit: US$/bbl) (Unit: US$/bbl) Market GRM Accounting GRM (Market GRM + Stock G/L) Interes
Slide 16: Power Sector Performance…Stable Contribution to the Group
-16- Power Sector Performance…Stable Contribution to the Group Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Refinery Aromatic Base Oil GIM Power Olefins All Business F/S & Others Power Business Sector Equity holding in SPP (4) (5) 74% 100% Power & Steam Sales Electricity(1) 2,544 2,491 2,455 (4)
Slide 17: Olefins Business: Softening Petrochemical Spreads
-17- Olefins Business : Softening Petrochemical Spreads Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Refinery Aromatic Base Oil GIM Power Olefins All Business F/S & Others Olefins Product Spreads Q3 & 9M/21 Performance Highlight HDPE CFR SEA - NaphJ ($/TON) CAP Performance TII Performance % Util
Slide 18: Performance Breakdown
-18- -18- Performance Breakdown Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Refinery Aromatic Base Oil GIM Power Olefins All Business F/S & Others Petrochemical & (2) Others & (3) Consolidated Stock Gain/ Consolidated Petroleum Power Net Profit Net Profit Lube Base (1) New Business (incl. Stock
Slide 19: Q3 & 9M/21 TOP Group Consolidated P&L
-19- Q3 & 9M/21 TOP Group Consolidated P&L Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Refinery Aromatic Base Oil GIM Power Olefins All Business F/S & Others (Unit : million baht) Q2/21 Q3/21 QoQ+/(-) Q3/20 YoY+/(-) 9M/20 9M/21 YoY+/(-) Represented Represented (A) (C) Sales Revenue 78,120 79,96
Slide 20: Q3 & 9M/21 Consolidated Cash Flow
-20- Q3 & 9M/21 Consolidated Cash Flow Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Refinery Aromatic Base Oil GIM Power Olefins All Business F/S & Others 9M/20 9M/21 9M/20 9M/21 (Unit: MB) Represent Represent Represent Operating Cash Flow (CFO) (2,568) 4,234 Investing Cash Flow (CFI) (71,846) (
Slide 21: Strong Financial Position & Financial Ratios
-21- Q3/21 TOP Group Strong Financial Position & Financial Ratios Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Refinery Aromatic Base Oil GIM Power Olefins All Business F/S & Others Statements of Financial Position Consolidated Long-Term Debt as at 30 Sep 21 (Unit: million THB) Total IBD Net Deb
Slide 22: 2022 Outlook
-22- 2022 OUTLOOK • Crude Oil • Refinery • Petrochemical • Base Oil & Bitumen
Slide 23: Remain High Oil Prices During Winter, Softer Prices in 2022
Remain High Oil Prices During Winter due to Gas-to-Oil Switch and Expected -23- Softer Prices in 2022 from Higher Supply Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Crude Refinery Petchem Lube&Bitumen Conclusion A Additional Gas-to-Oil Switching Demand Q4/21 to Q1/22 B Continue Growth in Econom
Slide 24: Refinery Margin Returns to Pre-COVID in 2022
-24- Refinery Margin Returns to Pre-COVID in 2022 Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Crude Refinery Petchem Lube&Bitumen Conclusion Singapore Cracking GRM ($/BBL) Avg. 2017: $7.1/BBL Avg. 2018: $5.9/BBL Avg. 2019: $3.7/BBL Avg. 2020: $0.4/BBL Avg. 2021E: $3.8/BBL 8.2 7.5 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.
Slide 25: Improving Gasoline and Jet Markets
Improving Gasoline Market on Easing Lockdown in Asia and Lower China’s Exports -25- Recovering Jet Demand on Less Restrictive Travelling Activity Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Crude Refinery Petchem Lube&Bitumen Conclusion Increasing Global Mobility to Support Gasoline Demand Incr
Slide 26: Improving Gasoil Market and Fuel Oil Demand
Improving Gasoil Market on Recovering Economic Activities and Lower China’s Exports -26- Increasing Fuel Oil Demand on Gas-to-Oil Switch Despite Higher Refinery Run Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Crude Refinery Petchem Lube&Bitumen Conclusion Improving Gasoil Demand on Economic Rec
Slide 27: Recovering Domestic Demand on Economic Improvement
-27- Recovering Domestic Demand on Economic Improvement Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Crude Refinery Aromatics Lube&Bitumen Conclusion A Higher Gasoline Demand on Higher Consumer's Spending on Goods B Recovering Jet Demand on the Improvement of Tourist Sector Gasoline Demand vs. N
Slide 28: More Aromatics Supply from Mega Capacity amid High Demand Growth
-28- More Aromatics Supply from Mega Capacity amid High Demand Growth Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Crude Refinery Petchem Lube&Bitumen Conclusion A Short MoreTerm SupportAddition Capacity by SM Run Rate amid and LowerDemand Recovered BZ Stock B Improved market in More Capacity 20
Slide 29: More Asian Olefins Capacity Addition in 2022
-29- More Asian Olefins Capacity Addition in 2022 amid High Demand Level Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Crude Refinery Petchem Lube&Bitumen Conclusion A ShortCapacity More Term Support by SM Addition Run from Rate New andStart-up Plant Lower BZ Stock esp. China B Improved More mark
Slide 30: Softer Base Oil Market on Weaker Demand Growth
Softer Base Oil Market on Weaker Demand Growth and Potential of Higher -30- Lube Feedstock Supply Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Crude Refinery Petchem Lube&Bitumen Conclusion A Weaker Demand Growth amid Lower Capacity Addition in 2022 B Higher Feedstock Supply on Higher Refinery R
Slide 31: 2022 Outlook Conclusion
-31- 2022 Outlook Conclusion (vs. 2021) Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Crude Refinery Petchem Lube&Bitumen Conclusion Crude Oil Short Term Additional Gas-to-Oil Switching During Winter and Economic Growth to Support Demand amid More Supply from OPEC+ Improving Refinery Margin on Ea
Slide 32: Final Remarks
-32- FINAL REMARKS
Slide 33: Near-Term Perspective
-33- -33- Near-Term Perspective Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Key Market Highlights • Synchronising recovery from economic re-opening across all regions boosts up demand to pre-COVID levels • Border re-opening is expected to refuel Jet demand • Current energy crisis further provid
Slide 34: Longer-Term Perspective
-34- -34- Longer-Term Perspective Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Key Market Highlights Q4/21 to 1H/22 2H/22 to 2023 2024 to 2030 Promising Rebalancing to Strong Refining Recovery Pre-COVID Level Margins Period Coinciding with CFP’s completion • Prolonged weakness in GRM causing 2.3
Slide 35: Appendix
-35- APPENDIX • Dividend Payment • CAPEX • Financial Performance • Optimised & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance • CDU Addition VS Additional Demand – AP & ME • World GRM / Inventories • Thailand petroleum demand by products
Slide 36: Dividend Payment
Dividend Payment -36- Dividend Payment Dividend Policy : Not less than 25% of consolidated net profit after deducting reserves, subject to cash flow and investment plan Unit : THB/share EPSR 2H dividend 1H dividend Year Dividend 12.18 10.40 9.19 9.40 8.66 7.82 7.28 5.91 6.04 5.97 4.57 4.97 4.39 2.75
Slide 37: TOP Group Strategic Investment Plan
CAPEX -37- TOP Group Strategic Investment Plan CAPEX Plan (Unit US$ million) Updated as of October 2021 Estimated Budgeting for Actual Investment Plan Project 9M/21 2021 - 2024 CFP project * 802 1,902 Total Ongoing CAPEX 37 201 Reliability, Efficiency and Flexibility Improvement 6 48 Infrastructure
Slide 38: Q3 & 9M/21 Financial Performance
Financial Performance -38- Q3 &9M/21- Financial Performance TOP Group Net Profit Gross Refining Margin - GRM Unit : million THB (MB) 9M/20 9M/21 $/bbl Q2/21 Q3/21 9M/20 9M/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 2,123 MB 2,063 MB (10,559) MB 7,545 MB Market GRM 0.4 1.6 0.1 0.9 Stock 4.9 5.1 (3.8) 5.4 Gain/(Loss) 12,354 Acco
Slide 39: Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance
Crude & Production -39- Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance Thai Oil is able to diversify its type of crude intake and product outputs to maximize demand and margin Crude Assays based on Sources of Product Reference Domestic demand for TOP configuration* Crude output Price petroleum
Slide 40: Demand Growth to Outpace Refining Capacity Addition in Medium Term
CDU Addition VS Additional Demand – AP & ME -40- Demand Growth to Outpace Refining Capacity Addition in Medium Term Asia Pacific and Middle East Effective CDU Addition VS Additional Demand AP & ME Demand Growth Middle East China Key Projects : New Addition Japan India Vietnam Thailand Philippines Ne
Slide 41: Asian Margin Vs. US-EU Margin
World GRM -41- Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin $/BBL $/BBL SINGAPORE GRM EU – US Margins 70 15 60 10 50 5 40 0 30 20 -5 10 -10 0 -15 -10 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 SING CRACK SING HYDRO BRENT CRACK BRENT
Slide 42: Global Crude Oil Inventories
Inventories -42- Global Crude Oil Inventories MBBL U.S. Crude Stocks (excl. SPR) MBBL Crude Oil, Cushing, Oklahoma 600 Source : EIA 80 Source : EIA 550 70 500 60 50 450 40 400 30 350 20 300 10 250 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2019 2020 2021 avg
Slide 43: Global Gasoline Inventories
Inventories -43- Global Gasoline Inventories U.S. Gasoline Stocks Singapore Gasoline Stocks MBBL Source : EIA MBBL 280 20 Source : IE Singapore 260 240 10 220 200 180 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2019 2020 2021 avg 16-20 5yr-range 2019 2020 2021
Slide 44: Global Middle Distillate Inventories
Inventories -44- Global Middle Distillate Inventories U.S. Diesel Stocks Singapore Middle Distillate Stocks MBBL MBBL 200 Source : EIA 20 Source : IE Singapore 180 160 140 10 120 100 80 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2019 2020 2021 avg 16-20 5yr-r
Slide 45: Global Fuel Oil Inventories
Inventories -45- Global Fuel Oil Inventories U.S. Residual Fuel Oil Stocks Singapore Residual Fuel Oil Stocks MBBL MBBL Source : IE Singapore Source : EIA 50 40 30 40 20 30 10 20 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2019 2020 2021 avg 16-20 5yr-range 20
Slide 46: China's Refined Product Exports
Inventories -46- China’s Refined Product Exports China’s Gasoline Exports China’s Gasoil Exports KBD KBD Source : China Custom Source : China Custom 600 800 500 700 600 400 500 300 400 200 300 200 100 100 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 2019 2020 2
Slide 47: Domestic LPG Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -47- Domestic LPG Demand Thailand LPG Demand LPG Demand Highlight KT/Day 2021 2019 2018 2020 • In 8M’21, LPG demand increased by 9.8% YoY mainly following the increase in industrial and petrochemical sectors. LPG 20 demand in the industry and petrochemical secto
Slide 48: Domestic Gasoline/Gasohol Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -48- Domestic Gasoline/Gasohol Demand Thailand Gasoline/Gasohol Demand GASOLINE/GASOHOL Demand Highlight MML/Day • In 9M’21, Gasoline demand was decreased by 8.9% YoY to an 2021 2020 2019 2018 average of 29.7 MML/day while Gasohol demand decreased 36 33.9 by 8.7
Slide 49: Domestic Jet Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -49- Domestic Jet Demand Thailand JET Demand JET Demand Highlight MML/Day 2021 2020 2019 2018 • In 9M’21, Jet consumption decreased by 44.7% YoY. Due to 24 Covid-19 pandemic situation, the demand continually decreased since May’21. The strict control on domestic
Slide 50: Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -50- Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand Thailand Gasoil Demand Gasoil Demand Highlight MML/Day 2021 2020 2019 2018 • In 9M’21, Gasoil demand decreased by 5% YoY. The demand was 72 69.3 70.5 impacted by third and forth wave of COVID-19 pandemic situation. It 68 was r
Slide 51: Domestic Fuel Oil Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -51- Domestic Fuel Oil Demand Thailand Fuel Oil Demand 2021 2020 2019 2018 Fuel Oil Demand Highlight MML/Day • In 9M’21, Fuel Oil consumption rose by 14.1 YoY, as the demand 8 in the transportation sector, which accounted for 58% of total 5.9 5.6 Fuel Oil demand
Slide 52: Thank You
-52- Thank You Any queries, please contact: at email: ir@thaioilgroup.com Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961 Fax: 662-797-2976
Thai Oil Public Company — Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation on 6ix