Commonwealth Bank Of Australia · ASX:CBA

Commonwealth Bank Of Australia — Debt Investor Presentation (February 2016)

73 slides from Commonwealth Bank Of Australia's debt investor presentation, Feb 10, 2016

  1. Slide 1: Debt Investor Update Results Presentation

    Debt Investor Update Results Presentation FOR THE HALF YEAR ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2015 For the half year ended 31 December 2009 COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA | ACN 123 123 124 | FEBRUARY 2016 10 February Commonwealth Bank of Australia ACN 123 123 124 2010

  2. Slide 2: Notes and Disclaimer

    Notes Disclaimer The material that follows is a presentation of general background information about the Group’s activities current at the date of the presentation, 10 February 2016. It is information given in summary form and does not purport to be complete. It is not intended to be relied upon as

  3. Slide 3: Results

    Results

  4. Slide 4: CBA Overview

    Additional CBA Overview Snapshot FY15 1 information Our Vision  Market Cap US$106bn1 (#1 in ASX)  Leading customer satisfaction – To excel at securing and # 1 “main financial institution”2 enhancing the financial  # 1 in home lending3 wellbeing of people, businesses  # 1 in household deposits4 a

  5. Slide 5: Good operating result

    Good operating result Dec 15 vs $m Dec 15 Dec 14 Dec 14 Operating income 12,362 11,647 6% Operating expenses (5,216) (4,914) 6% Operating performance 7,146 6,733 6% Investment experience 58 80 (28%) Loan impairment expense (564) (440) 28% Tax and non-controlling interests (1,836) (1,750) 5% Cash NPA

  6. Slide 6: Divisional contribution

    Divisional contribution Cash NPAT 1H16 1  Income  7%  C:I 80 bpts to 32.8%  Transaction Deposits  29%  Income  5%  C:I 70 bpts to 41.5%  Deposits 10%  Slower lending volumes +8%  Subdued lending growth  Income (ex CVA/FVA)  8%  Lending (avg)  17%  Loan impairment  44%  Home loan

  7. Slide 7: Ongoing volume growth

    Ongoing volume growth Balance Growth1 Continued strong growth 12 months to Dec 15 Reflects long in Transaction Accounts term investment in frontline A balanced Growth in line volume/margin outcome with system Good growth in 12.0% 10.6% target sectors 9.3% 7.7% 7.7% 7.8% 7.4% 6.5% 6.8% 6.3% Household

  8. Slide 8: Operating Income and Expenses

    Operating Income and Expenses Operating Income Operating Expenses $m +6.1% +6.1% Underlying +5% before FX +3.8% 69 5,216 44 60 5,103 1,519 34 1,386 +10% 95 2,479 4,914 2,386 +4% 7,875 +6% 8,364 1H15 Staff Amortisation Other 1H16 Investment FX 1H16 1H15 1H16 underlying Spend Net Interest Income incre

  9. Slide 9: Investment Spend

    Additional information Investment Spend Continuing to Invest Gross Investment Spend Investment Spend $m % of total 1,286 1,246 1,237 1,179 1,182 Branches 13% 12% 12% & Other 639 655 651 24% 28% Risk & 2nd Half 638 593 36% Compliance 63% Productivity 681 60% 647 52% & Growth 1st Half 541 582 589 595

  10. Slide 10: Group NIM

    Group NIM bpts Group NIM (Six Months) bpts Group NIM (12 Months) 214 12 month NIM 209 211 214 214 1 211 206 206 206 (1) (5) 210 210 209 204 209 204 204 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16 1H15 Funding Basis Capital & 1H16 costs risk Other Treasury & Markets Treasury & Markets 1 1 bpts 206 206 (2) Group NIM  1

  11. Slide 11: Sound credit quality

    Sound credit quality Loan Impairment Expense Consumer Arrears CBA Group (bpts) Personal Loans 90 Days+ Credit Cards Home Loans 1.34% Consumer (bpts) 1.09% 1.06% 17 19 17 18 18 16 1.05% 73 1.21% FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 1H16 0.91% 0.92% 0.89% Corporate (bpts) 0.52% 43 0.52% 0.49% 0.47% 24 23 19 Jun 1

  12. Slide 12: Strong provisioning

    Strong provisioning Individual Provisions Collective Provisions $m $m 2,763 2,762 2,801 1,116 Overlay 790 755 774 357 887 909 264 232 Bankwest 306 219 267 128 132 Consumer 983 128 942 981 631 558 492 Commercial 725 762 812 Dec 14 Jun 15 Dec 15 Dec 14 Jun 15 Dec 15 12

  13. Slide 13: Funding, Liquidity and Capital

    Funding, Liquidity and Capital

  14. Slide 14: Funding and Liquidity

    Funding and Liquidity Funding Liquidity 2 $bn $bn Source of funds Use of funds LCR 116% 120% 123% 136 140 132 16 (15) 64% Deposit 66 Funded CLF 70 66 22 (30) HQLA3 66 66 74 (1) 2 7 (1) Equity IFRS & FX Net short Customer New long 1 Long term 1 Lending Other Assets Dec 14 Jun 15 Dec 15 on ST & LT ter

  15. Slide 15: Liquidity Coverage Ratio

    Liquidity Coverage Ratio LCR Qualifying Liquid Assets1  LCR 123% at 31 Dec 2015 $bn  HQLA increased 12% while Net Cash Outflows increased 3% 136 140 132 Liquidity Coverage Dec 15 Jun 15 Change Ratio ($bn) 43 Internal High Quality Liquid Assets 74 66 12% 43 41 RMBS Committed Liquidity Facility 66 6

  16. Slide 16: Funding portfolio

    Funding portfolio Funding Funding Composition Average Long Term Funding Costs Margin to BBSW (bpts) Customer Deposits 64% 2.00 200 1.75 175 ST Wholesale Funding 1 17% 1.50 150 LT Wholesale Funding ≥ 12 months 9% 1.25 125 Covered Bonds 4% 1.00 100 Predicted LT LT Wholesale Funding < 12 months 3% 0.75

  17. Slide 17: Deposits

    Deposits Deposits Australian Deposits vs Peers1 Treatment of Deposits in LCR Dec 15 $bn calculation2 $bn As at 30 September 2015 ($bn) 427 160 CBA overweight more 364 140 stable deposits CBA Other 120 202 295 Peer 1 deposits Peer 2 184 100 Peer 3 245 80 183 140 60 Household 225 40 deposits 180 112 1

  18. Slide 18: Funding - Portfolio

    Funding - Portfolio Term Wholesale Funding by Currency1 Wholesale Funding by Product Vanilla MTN 25% Dec 15 Commercial Paper 16% AUD Certificate of Deposit 14% Jun 15 USD FI Deposits 2 13% Covered Bonds 10% EUR Jun 14 Securitisation 5% Other Debt Capital 5% Jun 13 Structured MTN 5% Other 7% 0% 20% 4

  19. Slide 19: Strong Capital Position

    Strong Capital Position bpts CET1 Mortgage RWA change has no impact on internationally comparable ratio Group’s mortgage portfolio average risk 14.3% weight increases from ~16% to ~25% July 2016 122 (28) (38) (77) 10.2% (100) 9.1% 131 9.2% Entitlement offer (Aug-15) raised $5.1bn or 131 bpts Jun 15

  20. Slide 20: Leverage Ratio

    Leverage Ratio CBA Leverage Ratio well above prescribed Basel Committee minimum Leverage ratio introduced to constrain the build-up of leverage in the banking system. Reconciliation ($m) – APRA basis Dec 15 Scheduled to be introduced as a minimum requirement Tier 1 Capital 47,972 from 1 January 2018

  21. Slide 21: Strong Capital – International Basis

    Strong Capital – International Basis 17.5%  In July 2015, APRA published a study 15.3% 1.6% Tier 2 that compared the major banks’ 1.6% Tier 1 13.9% capital ratios against a set of 2.3% 0.1% 0.7% international peers 0.6% Aust major bank  CBA’s internationally comparable CET1 avg 11.7% ratios align

  22. Slide 22: International Peer Basel III CET1

    International Peer Basel III CET1 18.3 Peer bank top quartile G-SIBs in dark grey 12.7%1 16.0 14.3 14.2 14.0 13.7 13.5 13.2 13.2 12.7 12.7 12.4 12.3 12.0 11.8 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.1 11.1 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.4 10.3 10.3 10.3 9.9 9.8 9.7 Santander 3 ING 3 SocGen 3 Co

  23. Slide 23: APRA & International Comparison

    APRA & International Comparison The following table provides details on the differences, as at 31 December 2015, between the APRA Basel III capital requirements and internationally comparable capital ratios1. CET1 Basel III (APRA) 10.2% Equity investments 0.9% Capitalised expenses 0.1% Deferred tax

  24. Slide 24: Dividend per Share

    DividendsDividend per Share Payout 75.0% 78.2% 73.9% 73.2% 75.8% 75.9% 75.1% 75.1% ratio (cash) 81% 81% 90% 81% 70% 71% 84% 70% 84% 71% 87% 62% 62% 63% 63% 84%74% cents 113 153 113 115 120 170 132 188 137 197 164 200 183 218 198 222 198 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 Interim Final 24

  25. Slide 25: Capital structure to absorb losses

    Capital structure to absorb losses CBA APRA % of earnings able to be capital requirements used for discretionary structure at 1 Jan 2016 payments1 Management 100% 1H16 Buffer Cash NPAT Potential loss A$4.8bn absorption 4th (PCR+3.5%) 60% quartiles 3rd (PCR+2.625%) 40% CCB2 Total CET1 to satisfy PCR

  26. Slide 26: Regulatory Change

    Regulatory Change APRA 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Leverage ratio First disclosed Implementation CCB + D-SIB Implementation 1 Jan 2016 – CCB CET1 2.5% + D-SIB CET1 1.0% Counter Cyclical Implementation 1 Jan 2016 – CCYB CET1 0% Capital Buffer LCR Implementation Level 3 Implementation – min 12 months aft

  27. Slide 27: Strategy

    Strategy

  28. Slide 28: Strategy

    Strategy Customer Focus People Productivity Technology Strength Capabilities “One CommBank” Growth Continued growth in business and institutional banking Opportunities Disciplined capability-led growth outside Australia TSR Outperformance 28

  29. Slide 29: CBA Overview

    CBA Overview Australia NZ Other Total People, Customers 13.0m 2.2m 0.5m 15.7m Customers & Staff 41,400 5,700 4,600 51,700 Delivery Branches 1,148 134 147 1,429 ATMs 4,393 460 174 5,027 Retail #1 Customer Business = #1 Satisfaction Internet Banking #1 Main Financial Institution (MFI) 34.1% #1 Market

  30. Slide 30: Opportunity gap

    Opportunity gap % MFI Share MFI Share by Age Overall 34.1% 34.0 34.2 34.1 Dec 14 Jun 15 42.7% Dec 15 45.2% 42.5% Opportunity 20.0 19.4 19.4 Gap MFI Share 13.3 13.5 13.7 30.2% 29.4% 11.4 11.6 11.8 28.1% CBA Peer 3 Peer 1 Peer 2 14-17 18-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+ (incl. Bankwest) Customer lifecycle (ag

  31. Slide 31: Customer needs met

    Customer needs met By Age Internet Banking Age Band Products per Customer 4.17 14 – 17 1.41 3.11 3.15 18 – 24 2.66 2.25 25 – 34 3.33 35 – 49 3.38 50 – 64 3.34 65+ 2.49 Overall Non-Internet Mobile App Website and Users Only Users Mobile App Total 18+ 3.11 Users Share of Product Wealth – Share of Prod

  32. Slide 32: Continuous Innovation

    Continuous Innovation 2010 – 2015 1H16 Everyday settlement, Online origination, MyWealth, • Innovating in Wealth, ASB & IFS Pi & Leo, Touch ID, Portfolio View, Small Business • Expanding the digital wallet app, Daily IQ, PayTag, Tap&Pay, VC in branches, Apps for smart watches and tablets, PEXA prope

  33. Slide 33: Growing Mobile

    Additional information Growing Mobile Growing Mobile Cardless Cash Tap & Pay Pay Tag Total number of Number of cards Number of Pay Tags in transactions (quarterly figures) 1 market 361K 313K 5.3m 385K 256K 245K 176K 2.7m 155K 0.1m 1.2m 90K Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun 15 Dec 15 Mar 15 Jun 15 Sep 15 Dec 15 Jun

  34. Slide 34: Productivity

    Productivity Case Study Enabling Reinvestment Gross Investment Spend ($m) % of total Retail Collections & Other 13% Risk & 24% 12% 12% 28% Customer Solutions1 Compliance 36% Productivity & Growth 63% 60% 52% Continuous improvement culture, 1H14 1H15 1H16 process simplification and elimination 1,286

  35. Slide 35: Distribution Transformation

    Distribution Transformation Smaller, smarter branch design Video Conferencing 68 express Self Service 1 In all branches - branches – access to CBA focus on specialists self service ~ 32,000 calls in 1H16 Tablets and software for branch Over 597 Intelligent concierges to Deposit Machines enhance cust

  36. Slide 36: Transaction Banking

    Transaction Banking Group Transaction Balances Strong growth across divisions $m 1H16 v 1H15 +21% 34% 29% 97,327 Group 80,758 21% +21% 71,039 14% 15% Ex 5% offset 9% accounts 2% 1 1H14 1H15 1H16 RBS BPB IB&M BWA NZ RBS New Transaction Accounts 2 • Fast, simple processes in real time # +27% 3 • Growi

  37. Slide 37: Transaction volumes

    Transaction volumes Number % Value % Percentage of total transactions by number Percentage of total transactions by $ value 64% 65% 52% 50% 36% 34% 21%23% 12% 10% 10% 10% 4% 4% 3% 2% Internet Point of sale ATM Branch Internet Point of sale ATM Branch Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 14 Dec 15 $ Transaction for ATM

  38. Slide 38: CBA in Asia and South Africa

    CBA in Asia and South Africa China ♦ Bank of Hangzhou (20%): 171 branches ♦ Qilu Bank (20%): 113 branches ♦ County Banking - Henan: 7 banks and 7 branches (5 banks and 6 branches @ 80% and 2 banks and 1 branch @ 100% holding) - Hebei: 8 banks (5 banks @ 80% and 3 banks @ 100% shareholding). ♦ CBA Be

  39. Slide 39: Outlook

    Outlook  Steady transition, driven by sound monetary policy and lower AUD  Global volatility warrants caution, but overreaction also a threat  Long term policy needed for on-going transition: tax, infrastructure, spending  Financial services a prevailing strength – must be forward looking post F

  40. Slide 40: Credit and Housing

    Credit and Housing

  41. Slide 41: Market Share

    Market Share % Dec Jun Dec Home Loan Market Share 15 15 14 Home loans CBA Peer 1 25.1 25.3 25.4 Peer 2 Peer 3 Credit cards – RBA2 24.4 24.3 25.1 27% Other household lending3 16.6 16.3 16.6 25% 25.1% Household deposits4 29.3 29.5 29.1 Business lending – RBA 17.0 17.1 17.1 23.2% 23% Business lending -

  42. Slide 42: Credit Exposures by Industry

    Credit Exposures by Industry Jun 15 Jun 15 Dec 15 Dec 15 Consumer 54.2% 54.0% Agriculture 1.8% 1.8% Mining 1.9% 1.8% Manufacturing 1.7% 1.8% Energy 0.9% 1.1% Construction 0.9% 0.8% Retail & Wholesale 2.3% 2.3% Transport 1.5% 1.5% Banks 8.6% 7.8% Finance – other 4.6% 5.1% Business Services 1.2% 1.3%

  43. Slide 43: Sector Exposures

    Sector Exposures Commercial Exposures by Industry Top 20 Commercial Exposures AAA A+ BBB+ A- to to to AA- TCE $bn AA- A- BBB- Other Dec 15 BBB+ Banks 30.9 38.5 9.7 2.2 81.3 BBB AA Finance Other 22.9 17.4 9.8 3.0 53.1 A Property 1.6 6.0 13.5 44.8 65.9 A BBB- Sovereign 82.7 6.7 0.5 0.4 90.3 BBB+ Manuf

  44. Slide 44: Mining, Oil and Gas

    Mining, Oil and Gas Overview Group Exposure  Exposure of $18.9bn (1.8% of Group TCE) % of Group % of Portfolio rated % of Portfolio TCE investment grade impaired  Sound portfolio that continues to perform acceptably notwithstanding recent deterioration in commodity prices: 79 74  74% investment g

  45. Slide 45: Commercial Property

    Commercial Property Overview Group Exposure  Exposure of $65.9bn (6.4% of Group TCE) diversified across sectors/geography/counterparties % of Group % of Portfolio rated % of Portfolio TCE investment grade impaired  Less than 0.3% of total exposures impaired; less than 3% of sub-investment grade ex

  46. Slide 46: Australian Home Loan Portfolio

    Australian Home Loan Portfolio1 Dec Jun Dec Dec Jun Dec Portfolio1 New Business1 14 15 15 14 15 15 Total Balances - Spot ($bn) 370 383 393 Total Funding ($bn) 46 94 50 Total Balances - Average ($bn) 365 371 388 Average Funding Size ($’000) 269 274 302 Total Accounts (m) 1.7 1.7 1.7 Serviceability Bu

  47. Slide 47: Australian Home Loans

    Australian Home Loans Balance Growth State Profile 1H16 Balance Growth % of Portfolio 15 18% 50 (47) 32% (8) 26% 4.3% 18% 6% 383 393 3.2% $bn 1.9% 1.9% 1.4% Jun 15 New Redraw & Repayments External Dec 15 NSW/ACT SA/NT QLD VIC/TAS WA Fundings Interest & Other Refinance Arrears Arrears by State 90+ da

  48. Slide 48: Australian Investment Home Loans

    Australian Investment Home Loans Overview Relatively low arrears Arrears (90+ days) Owner Occupied 1.00% Portfolio  Modest balance growth <10% 0.80% Investment Loan 0.60%  Arrears lower than overall portfolio 0.40% 0.20%  Strong borrower profile – skewed to 0.00% Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun 15 Dec 1

  49. Slide 49: RBS Home Loan Growth Profile

    RBS Home Loan Growth Profile Home Loan Balances Broker Share of Fundings1 $bn 53% 52% 44 14 (42) 50% 51% (6) 47% 331 44% 44% 321 39% 39% 38% Jun 15 New Redraw Repayments External Dec 15 Dec 13 Mar 14 Jun 14 Sep 14 Dec 14 Mar 15 Jun 15 Sep 15 Dec 15 fundings & / Other refinance interest Market CBA Ho

  50. Slide 50: Group Consumer Arrears

    Group Consumer Arrears Consumer Portfolios Home Loans 90+ days 90+ days 2.0% Personal Loans 2.0% Bankwest Credit Cards RBS Home Loans ASB 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Jun 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun 15 Dec 15 Jun 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun 15 Dec 15 Credit Cards Personal Loans 90+ days 90+ days Group 2.0% 2

  51. Slide 51: Australian Home Loans – Stress Test

    Australian Home Loans – Stress Test Assumptions and Outcomes Net Losses $m Assumptions (%) Base Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 490 2,343 19 2,362 1,983 (130) Cash Rate 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 Unemployment 6.1 7.5 9.5 11.0 Hours under- 10.7 13.1 16.1 18.4 Jun 15 Revised Add AddBankwest Bankwest Jun 15 Portfolio Dec 15

  52. Slide 52: Funded Assets

    Funded Assets Dec Jun $bn $bn 15 15 Transactions 2 97 89 22 2 1 7 (1) Savings 190 176 60 Equity Investments 196 195 Long term1 144 wholesale (incl IFRS Other 17 18 MTM & FX) Total customer 500 478 843 842 138 Short term deposits 811 wholesale Wholesale 282 280 funding Customer Total funding 782 758

  53. Slide 53: UK and US Balance Sheet Comparison

    UK and US Balance Sheet Comparison 1,2 United Kingdom USA Assets Liab + Equity Assets Liab + Equity Cash & 8% 8% Cash & Equity equivalents Equity 12% 12% equivalents Home Loans 17% Home Loans 13% 57% Deposits Deposits 57% 43% Other Lending 39% Other Lending 7% Long Term3 Other Fair Other Fair 17% Lo

  54. Slide 54: Australian Banks – Safe Assets, Secure Funding

    Australian Banks – Safe Assets, Secure Funding Commonwealth Bank Balance Sheet Comparisons Assets – CBA has a safe, conservative asset profile: Assets Liab + Equity  51% of balance sheet is home loans, which are stable/long Cash & equivalents 4% term. 7% Equity  Trading securities and other fair v

  55. Slide 55: Economic Indicators

    Economic Indicators

  56. Slide 56: Economic Indicators

    Additional information Economic Indicators 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 World GDP 4.2 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.3 Australia Credit Growth % – Total 2.6 4.4 3.1 5.0 6.0 5½-6½ 4¾-6¾ Credit Growth % – Housing 6.1 5.0 4.6 6.4 7.3 6-7 5-7 Credit Growth % – Business -2.3 4.4 1.2 3.4 4.5 5½-6½ 5-7 Credit

  57. Slide 57: Australia remains well placed

    Australia remains well placed Australia is now well into its 24th year of continuous economic growth. The lower Australian dollar is helping and Australian policy makers retain some firepower. GDP1 Unemployment Rate2 Global Interest Rates1 (annual % change) (%) (%) 10 12 8 6 6 8 2 4 -2 2 4 -6 0 -10

  58. Slide 58: Chinese economic growth is slowing

    Chinese economic growth is slowing The global economy has become increasingly dependent on China and the rest of emerging Asia to drive economic growth and commodity demand. Therefore, the slowdown in Chinese economy is a concern. We expect the Chinese economy to grow by 6½% in 2016, assisted by int

  59. Slide 59: Growth in China is shifting away from resource-intensive industries

    Growth in China is shifting away from resource-intensive industries China is transitioning from infrastructure/investment led growth to consumption/services led growth. This process means lower demand for resource-based goods. However, the transition also offers opportunities to Australia. Rising Ch

  60. Slide 60: The domestic growth transition continues

    The domestic growth transition continues The transition from mining to non-mining led growth is proceeding. We are further through the mining capex downturn than most were expecting. Australia is currently 70% of the way through the anticipated decline in mining capex. At the same time, we are also

  61. Slide 61: But the transition is uneven

    But the transition is uneven A major residential construction boom is underway. Building houses is an effective generator of jobs and activity. But other parts of the transition have failed to fire. Businesses have been reluctant to invest and governments have cut capex. Dwelling construction1 Trans

  62. Slide 62: Consumer spending has lifted & the lower currency is supporting service industries

    Consumer spending has lifted & the lower currency is supporting service industries Other parts of the transition are more encouraging. An improvement in the labour market is positive for consumer spending, despite the weakness in wages growth. The Australian dollar is declining and is an important d

  63. Slide 63: There is an income threat because of the declines in commodity prices

    There is an income threat because of the declines in commodity prices Income weakness is a key source of risk to the economy in 2016. Falling commodity prices are driving the terms-of-trade lower. And a falling term-of-trade weighs on incomes. Real gross domestic income per capita has been falling f

  64. Slide 64: The housing market is slowing

    The housing market is slowing Population growth slowed as migration has eased. Therefore, the underlying demand for new dwellings has stepped down. Housing supply is now running ahead of housing demand satisfying some past backlog. Dwelling construction will still remain high in 2016 because of appr

  65. Slide 65: Dwelling price growth stabilising nationally

    Dwelling price growth stabilising nationally Dwelling price growth varies widely by region. House and apartment price growth is now stabilising, rather than lifting. Higher dwelling prices and a nudge up in variable mortgage rates is reducing the incentive for owner-occupiers. And slower rental grow

  66. Slide 66: Household balance sheets remain strong

    Household balance sheets remain strong Volatility in global markets remains high, driven by concerns about US Federal Reserve interest rate rises and uncertainty over China’s growth story. But Australian businesses and households are well placed to deal with these global risks. Households have cut b

  67. Slide 67: Households in better shape in net terms

    Households in better shape in net terms Household net worth has improved despite an increase in debt, driven by a large increase in the value of residential assets. Financial assets have also been improving. Households would be vulnerable to a fall in asset values and/or a rise in interest rates. Ho

  68. Slide 68: New Zealand

    New Zealand Dairy prices weakened over 2014 and 2015. A gradual recovery is expected over 2016, with the lagged impact of the lower NZD/USD further boosting local currency revenues. Meanwhile, tourism (2nd biggest foreign exchange earner) is going from strength to strength. Chinese visitor numbers h

  69. Slide 69: New Zealand

    New Zealand The inflation environment remains very subdued, even with the impact of the NZ dollar depreciation. The RBNZ has cut the Official Cash Rate from 3.5% to 2.5%. Risks are the RBNZ will eventually cut the OCR even further in 2016. NZ CPI inflation1 OCR forecasts2 (%) (ASB forecast and impli

  70. Slide 70: New Zealand

    New Zealand Auckland-only investor lending restrictions and nationwide tax changes (including the requirement for all investors to have tax numbers to complete property transactions) are biting in the Auckland housing market. The relaxing of ex-Auckland lending restrictions is, in contrast, contribu

  71. Slide 71: Appendix

    Appendix

  72. Slide 72: Sydney

    \ i i 2 Silverdale | o a> he Ny es v e Ss ’ Bankstown Greendale \ a , Bringelly Pine Me } he z va Ses Werombi : ="70km Oaks 72 CommonwealthBank +

  73. Slide 73: Melbourne

    Melbourne 7% [aas0 ; Korumbu 73 CommonwealthBank +

Commonwealth Bank of Australia — Debt Investor Presentation (February 2016) on 6ix