Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation · NYSE:AGM
Federal Agricultural Mortgage — Investor Presentation (2017)
24 slides from Federal Agricultural Mortgage's investor presentation, 2017
Slide 1: What to Watch in 2017 – Corn Prices and Corn Acres are Down
Eric Snodgrass Co-Founder and Senior Atmospheric Scientist of Agrible, Inc Director of Undergraduate Studies Department of Atmospheric Sciences University Of Illinois Urbana-Champaign snodgrss@illinois.edu eric@agrible.com What to Watch in 2017 – Corn Prices and Corn Acres are Down 2012 – Mega Droug
Slide 2: What to Watch in 2017 – Corn Prices and Corn Acres are Down
What to Watch in 2017 – Corn Prices and Corn Acres are Down Any stress in July weather corn prices will respond quickly. Must watch August rain for beans Source: http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/ @FarmPolicy
Slide 3: US Corn Yield 1948-2016
Corn Yield (bpa) 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 y = 1.9180x - 3,700.2137 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 July - It’s all about July for corn 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
Slide 4: The Good Years…
The Good Years… July 2004 May 1 Aug 31 May 1 2014 Aug 31 2016 May 1 Aug 31
Slide 5: 2012 – Drought Monitor (July 3)
2012 – Drought Monitor (July 3) Wettest year Normal 2012 Driest year What causes this?
Slide 6: What types of weather patterns shut off the rain and bring in the heat?
So what types of weather patterns shut off the rain and bring in the heat? Flow of the Jet Stream Trough L L H Ridge Block storm systems Move heat north What to Watch in 2017 – Record Soybean Acres + Record 2016 US Yields + Record 2017 South American Crop Soybean Acres = 89.5 Million (up 7% on 201
Slide 7: US Soybean Yield 1948-2016
Soybean Yield (bpa) 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 y = 0.3912x - 743.82 2017 South American Crop 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 19
Slide 8: Record Soybean Acres + Record 2016 US Yields + Record 2017 South American Crop
What to Watch in 2017 – Record Soybean Acres + Record 2016 US Yields + Record 2017 South American Crop 85+% Harvested Estimates = 110+ Million Metric Tons Weak La Niña, No heat stress, timely rains Source: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Source: http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/
Slide 9: Early Market Weather Impacts El Niño/Drought/Flood/Frost
What to Watch in 2017 – Early Market Weather Impacts El Niño/Drought/Flood/Frost +PDO Weak La Niña Source: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
Slide 10: Weak/Moderate Strength El Niño by Summer
Weak/Moderate Strength El Niño by Summer Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/seasanom.shtml Correlation of July Temperatures and Precipitation Rate with El Niño (MEI) ***Very weak correlation. Secondary predictor of July weather at best. Source: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/corr
Slide 11: Early Market Weather Impacts El Niño/Drought/Flood/Frost
What to Watch in 2017 – Early Market Weather Impacts El Niño/Drought/Flood/Frost Source: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ What to Watch in 2017 – Early Market Weather Impacts El Niño/Drought/Flood/Frost Source: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
Slide 12: Early Market Weather Impacts El Niño/Drought/Flood/Frost
Thanks for sharing this pic Angie Setzer @GoddessofGrain What to Watch in 2017 – Early Market Weather Impacts El Niño/Drought/Flood/Frost Source: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
Slide 13: Early Market Weather Impacts El Niño/Drought/Flood/Frost
What to Watch in 2017 – Early Market Weather Impacts El Niño/Drought/Flood/Frost 90 Trillion Gallons since Oct 2016
Slide 14: Planting Progress Through Week #15
Planting Progress Through Week #15 Source: http://www.agweb.com/corn-planting-map/
Slide 15: US Week 15 Corn Planting Progress
US Week 15 Corn Planting Progress ~April 15 (USDA NASS) 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 What to Watch in 2017 – Early Market Weather Impacts El Niño/Drou
Slide 16: Early Market Weather Impacts El Niño/Drought/Flood/Frost
What to Watch in 2017 – Early Market Weather Impacts El Niño/Drought/Flood/Frost Source: www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Source: www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
Slide 17: Elevated Severe Weather Threat
What to Watch in 2017 – Early Market Weather Impacts El Niño/Drought/Flood/Frost Source: NOAA What to Watch in 2017 – Elevated Severe Weather Threat US Tornado Risk 2017: Above average April 2017 = +0.42 sd March 2017 = +0.04 sd February 2017 = +0.04 sd January 2017 = +0.03 sd Dec 2016 Forecast = +0
Slide 18: Monitoring Severe Weather Threats – Agrible Hail Detection Software
Look for Radar Reflectivity Values greater than 60 dBZ Monitoring Severe Weather Threats – Agrible Inc. Hail Detection Software
Slide 19: Spring Forecast
Severe Threat! – http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ What to Watch in 2017 – Spring Forecast Source: https://www.usanpn.org/data/spring
Slide 20: Spring Forecast
What to Watch in 2017 – Spring Forecast Source: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snowfall_v2/ What to Watch in 2017 – Spring Forecast Source: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/
Slide 21: Spring Forecast
What to Watch in 2017 – Spring Forecast What to Watch in 2017 – Spring Forecast Source: NOAA
Slide 22: Source: http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/
Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/seasanom.shtml Source: http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/
Slide 23: Summer Forecast
What to Watch in 2017 – Summer Forecast Source: IRI and NMME Agrible, Inc June-August Temperature Pattern Forecast +PDO + +/= + Warm Atlantic SSTs + Weak – Moderate Strength EL Niño
Slide 24: FREE SOFTWARE – Promo Code
FREE SOFTWARE – Just enter “ERIC” in the Promo Code and get a free 1-year subscription to our expansive product line
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