Duke Energy Corporation (Holding Company) · NYSE:DUK
Duke Energy Corporation (Holding Company) — Duke Energy Indiana — Investor Presentation (August 2015)
48 slides from Duke Energy Corporation (Holding Company)'s investor presentation, Aug 4, 2015
Slide 1: 2015 Integrated Resource Plan Stakeholder Workshop #3
2015 Integrated Resource Plan Stakeholder Workshop #3 Aug 4, 2015 Plainfield, IN
Slide 2: Welcome
a. o. oe hey fe Welcome DUKE & ENERGY.
Slide 3: Welcome
Welcome Safety message Why are we here today? Objectives for stakeholder process Introduce the facilitator 3
Slide 4: The Facilitator
The Facilitator Duke Energy Indiana hired Dr. Marty Rozelle of The Rozelle Group and her colleagues to: Help us develop the IRP stakeholder engagement process Facilitate and document stakeholder workshops 4
Slide 5: Why are we here today?
Why are we here today? Duke Energy Indiana developing 2015 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Proactively complying with proposed Commission IRP rule Today is the 3rd of 4 stakeholder workshops prior to filing the IRP by November 1, 2015 5
Slide 6: Objectives for Stakeholder Process
Objectives for Stakeholder Process Listen: Understand concerns and objectives Inform: Increase stakeholders’ understanding of the IRP process, key assumptions, and challenges we face Consider: Provide a forum for productive stakeholder feedback at key points in the IRP process to inform Duke E
Slide 7: Agenda
Agenda 08:30 Registration & Continental Breakfast 09:00 Welcome, Introductions & Agenda 09:20 Meeting 2 Comments & Responses 09:45 Scenario Review 10:15 Break 10:30 Portfolio Review 11:30 Lunch 12:15 Modeling (Results; Observations; Next Steps) 01:30 Sensitivity Exercise 02:45 Closing Comments 7
Slide 8: Meeting 2 Comments & Responses
Scott Park, Director IRP Analytics - Midwest Meeting 2 Comments & Responses 8
Slide 9: Meeting Comments and Response
Meeting 2 Comments and Response Topic We heard/observed… Response Conference Call Poor sound quality Raised issue with IT and corrected Since internet access is not critical to the meeting, Wi-Fi Poor Wi-Fi connectivity stakeholders will now be responsible for providing for their own internet access
Slide 10: Meeting Comments and Response
Meeting 2 Comments and Response Topic We heard/observed… Response We felt that having stakeholders develop specific input Stakeholder and present that to the group was very productive and Exercise was very helpful and informative Exercise we will make use of a similar exercise format in future meeti
Slide 11: Scenario Review
Jim Hobbs, Lead Engineer Scenario Review 11
Slide 12: Seven Scenarios
Seven Scenarios Core Scenarios 1. No Carbon Regulation 2. Carbon Tax 3. Clean Power Plan (Proposed Rule) Change of Outlook Scenarios 4. Hybrid scenario 1 (No Carbon Regulation changing to Carbon tax) 5. Hybrid scenario 2 (Carbon tax changing to No Carbon Regulation) Stakeholder-Inspired Scenarios 6.
Slide 13: Core Scenarios
Core Scenarios No Carbon Regulation No carbon tax/price or regulation Moderate levels of environmental regulation No Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard (REPS) Carbon Tax Carbon tax $17/ton in 2020, rising to $50/ton Increased levels of environmental regulation 5% REPS Clean Power
Slide 14: Change of Outlook Scenarios
Change of Outlook Scenarios Hybrid scenario 1 (No Carbon Regulation changing to Carbon tax) No Carbon Regulation scenario initially Change to Carbon Tax scenario for latter part Demonstrates impact of delayed carbon regulation Hybrid scenario 2 (Carbon tax changing to No Carbon Regulation)
Slide 15: Stakeholder-Inspired Scenarios
Stakeholder-Inspired Scenarios Increased Customer Choice Carbon Tax scenario basis Roof top solar serves additional 1% of load per year beginning 2020 Customers adopt higher levels of Energy Efficiency New utility-scale generation served by merchant generators, e.g., Dynegy or Calpine Cl
Slide 16: Break
Break DUKE 6 & ENERGY.
Slide 17: Portfolio Review
Brian Bak, Lead Planning Analyst & Jim Hobbs, Lead Engineer Portfolio Review 17
Slide 18: Nine Portfolios
Nine Portfolios 1. Optimized No Carbon Tax 2. Optimized Carbon Tax 3. Optimized Clean Power Plan 4. Portfolio 1 w/ CC’s 5. Portfolio 2 w/ CC’s 6. Portfolio 3 w/ CC’s 7. Stakeholder Distributed Generation 8. Stakeholder Green Utility 9. High Renewables 18
Slide 19: Portfolio Template
Portfolio Template ADDITIONS (MW) Total 2016-20 2021-25 2026-30 2031-35 CT CHP CC EE & IVVC Solar Wind Biomass RETIREMENTS Unit MW MARKET (Annual average GWh) Market Purchases Market Sales 19
Slide 20: Optimized No Carbon Tax Portfolio
Optimized No Carbon Tax Portfolio ADDITIONS (MW) Total 2016-20 2021-25 2026-30 2031-35 CT 1,040 208 208 416 208 CHP 44 29 15 CC EE & IVVC 220 / 3.1% 126 / 1.9% 82 / 3.1% 11 / 3.1% 1 / 3.1% Solar Wind Biomass RETIREMENTS Unit WR2-6 Oil CTs MW (834) (834) MARKET (Annual average GWh) Market Purchases 3
Slide 21: Optimized Carbon Tax Portfolio
Optimized Carbon Tax Portfolio ADDITIONS (MW) Total 2016-20 2021-25 2026-30 2031-35 CT 734 318 (WR6) 416 CHP 44 29 15 CC 448 448 EE & IVVC 224 / 3.1% 126 / 1.9% 82 / 3.1% 11 / 3.1% 5 / 3.2% Solar 270 20 180 70 Wind 400 250 150 Biomass 14 2 6 6 RETIREMENTS Unit WR2-6 Oil CTs Gal2,4 Gib5 MW (1,424) (1
Slide 22: Optimized Clean Power Plan Portfolio
Optimized Clean Power Plan Portfolio ADDITIONS (MW) Total 2016-20 2021-25 2026-30 2031-35 CT 208 208 CHP 29 15 15 CC 896 896 EE & IVVC 220 / 3.1% 126 / 1.9% 82 / 3.1% 11 / 3.1% 1 / 3.1% Solar 290 20 130 110 30 Wind 400 300 100 Biomass 14 2 6 6 RETIREMENTS Unit WR2-6 Oil CTs Gal2,4 Gib5 MW (1,424) (1
Slide 23: Portfolio 1 w/ CC's Portfolio
Portfolio 1 w/ CC’s Portfolio ADDITIONS (MW) Total 2016-20 2021-25 2026-30 2031-35 CT 624 416 208 CHP 44 29 15 CC 448 448 EE & IVVC 220 / 3.1% 126 / 1.9% 82 / 3.1% 11 / 3.1% 1 / 3.1% Solar Wind Biomass RETIREMENTS Unit WR2-6 Oil CTs MW (834) (834) MARKET (Annual average GWh) Market Purchases 2,521 4
Slide 24: Portfolio 2 w/ CC's Portfolio
Portfolio 2 w/ CC’s Portfolio ADDITIONS (MW) Total 2016-20 2021-25 2026-30 2031-35 CT 208 208 CHP 44 29 15 CC 896 448 448 EE & IVVC 224 / 3.1% 126 / 1.9% 82 / 3.1% 11 / 3.1% 5 / 3.2% Solar 300 20 200 80 Wind 400 250 150 Biomass 14 2 6 6 RETIREMENTS Unit WR2-6 Oil CTs Gal2,4 Gib5 MW (1,424) (1,114) (
Slide 25: Portfolio 3 w/ CC's Portfolio
Portfolio 3 w/ CC’s Portfolio ADDITIONS (MW) Total 2016-20 2021-25 2026-30 2031-35 CT CHP 29 15 15 CC 1,344 896 448 EE & IVVC 220 / 3.1% 126 / 1.9% 82 / 3.1% 11 / 3.1% 1 / 3.1% Solar 320 20 140 120 40 Wind 400 300 100 Biomass 14 2 6 6 RETIREMENTS Unit WR2-6 Oil CTs Gal2,4 Gib5 MW (1,424) (1,424) MAR
Slide 26: Intentionally left blank
Intentionally left blank 1. Ps » Nifics ee DUKE * & ENERGY.
Slide 27: Stakeholder Distributed Generation - Target vs Model
Stakeholder Distributed Generation - Target vs Model 2025 2035 Energy Mix (%) Target Model Target Model Market Purchases 11% 9% 8% 13% Coal 36% 42% 19% 16% Hydro 1% 1% 1% 1% CC 8% 12% 9% 17% CT 1% 0% 1% 0% EE 11% 5% 16% 8% Solar 7% 7% 10% 10% Wind 10% 10% 13% 13% CHP 9% 8% 12% 11% Nuclear 0% 0% 3% 3
Slide 28: Stakeholder Distributed Gen Portfolio
Stakeholder Distributed Gen Portfolio ADDITIONS (MW) Total 2016-20 2021-25 2026-30 2031-35 CT 832 208 624 CHP 609 131 290 15 174 CC 1,344 896 448 EE & IVVC 650 / 8.5% 189 / 2.8% 203 / 5.7% 138 / 7.3% 120 / 8.5% Solar 2,480 670 970 420 420 Wind 2,050 450 800 550 250 Biomass 303 106 137 60 RETIREMENTS
Slide 29: Stakeholder Green Utility - Target vs Model
Stakeholder Green Utility - Target vs Model 2025 2035 Energy Mix (%) Target Model Target Model Market Purchases 16% 16% 13% 19% Coal 50% 58% 38% 36% Hydro 1% 1% 1% 1% CC 18% 13% 19% 20% CT 3% 0% 6% 0% EE 5% 6% 8% 8% Solar 2% 2% 4% 4% Wind 3% 3% 6% 6% CHP 2% 2% 5% 5% Nuclear 0% 0% 0% 0% Battery/Fuel
Slide 30: Stakeholder Green Utility Portfolio
Stakeholder Green Utility Portfolio ADDITIONS (MW) Total 2016-20 2021-25 2026-30 2031-35 CT 624 624 CHP 261 29 73 73 87 CC 1,344 896 448 EE & IVVC 650 / 8.5% 189 / 2.8% 203 / 5.7% 138 / 7.3% 120 / 8.5% Solar 930 40 380 300 210 Wind 800 250 300 250 Biomass 16 2 6 8 RETIREMENTS Unit WR2-6 Oil CTs Gal2
Slide 31: High Renewables Portfolio
High Renewables Portfolio ADDITIONS (MW) Total 2016-20 2021-25 2026-30 2031-35 CT 526 318 (WR6) 208 CHP 44 29 15 CC 448 448 EE & IVVC 220 / 3.1% 126 / 1.9% 82 / 3.1% 11 / 3.1% 1 / 3.1% Solar 1,010 20 130 260 600 Wind 2,300 300 500 1,500 Biomass 14 2 8 4 RETIREMENTS Unit WR2-6 Oil CTs Gal2,4 Gib5 MW
Slide 32: EE Summary
EE Summary EE % of Available Retail Sales 25% 2013 LoReg 2013 Ref 20% 2013 Env 2015 Base 15% 2015 High 2015 SH 10% 5% 0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 32
Slide 33: Energy Efficiency Bundles
Energy Efficiency Bundles In order to model utility sponsored EE as a resource, this portion of EE needs to be removed from the load forecast and put into bundles for economic selection by the resource planning model. 33
Slide 34: Lunch
Lunch DUKE a & ENERGY.
Slide 35: Modeling
Scott Park, Director IRP Analytics – Midwest & Brian Bak, Lead Planning Analyst Modeling 35
Slide 36: Modeling Overview
Modeling Overview Modeling to date, has been conducted using System Optimizer and results should be viewed as preliminary System Optimizer is a long term optimization model for resource selection Prosym is a detailed dispatch model to better measures detailed system performance 7 scenarios
Slide 37: No CO2 Scenario
No CO2 Scenario PORTFOLIOS METRIC No CO2 Opt w/ Stakeholder Stakeholder High No CO2 Opt CO2 Opt CPP Opt CO2 Opt w/ CC CPP Opt w/ CC 2016-2035 CC Dist Gen Green Utility Renewables PVRR ($MM) 16,832 17,313 17,355 16,875 17,277 17,380 23,202 19,429 17,617 CO2 Emissions (+/-) 15% 4% 1% 12% 1% -2% -49% -
Slide 38: CO2 Tax Scenario
CO2 Tax Scenario PORTFOLIOS METRIC No CO2 Opt w/ Stakeholder Stakeholder High No CO2 Opt CO2 Opt CPP Opt CO2 Opt w/ CC CPP Opt w/ CC 2016-2035 CC Dist Gen Green Utility Renewables PVRR ($MM) 23,402 23,196 23,224 23,447 23,248 23,243 27,237 24,345 23,445 CO2 Emissions (+/-) 2% -4% -9% -3% -9% -13% -5
Slide 39: CPP Scenario
CPP Scenario PORTFOLIOS METRIC No CO2 Opt w/ Stakeholder Stakeholder High No CO2 Opt CO2 Opt CPP Opt CO2 Opt w/ CC CPP Opt w/ CC 2016-2035 CC Dist Gen Green Utility Renewables PVRR ($MM) 19,498 19,185 18,664 19,221 18,913 18,686 23,010 19,853 19,470 CO2 Emissions (+/-) -3% -7% -11% -7% -11% -13% -52
Slide 40: No CO2/CO2 Scenario
No CO2/CO2 Scenario PORTFOLIOS METRIC No CO2 Opt w/ Stakeholder Stakeholder High No CO2 Opt CO2 Opt CPP Opt CO2 Opt w/ CC CPP Opt w/ CC 2016-2035 CC Dist Gen Green Utility Renewables PVRR ($MM) 21,672 21,705 21,742 21,704 21,718 21,766 26,080 23,089 21,930 CO2 Emissions (+/-) -4% -4% -9% -9% -13% -1
Slide 41: CO2/No CO2 Scenario
CO2/No CO2 Scenario PORTFOLIOS METRIC No CO2 Opt w/ Stakeholder Stakeholder High No CO2 Opt CO2 Opt CPP Opt CO2 Opt w/ CC CPP Opt w/ CC 2016-2035 CC Dist Gen Green Utility Renewables PVRR ($MM) 18,495 18,598 18,761 18,540 18,635 18,786 23,558 20,703 18,953 CO2 Emissions (+/-) 13% 9% 2% 9% 0% -1% -47
Slide 42: Increased Customer Choice Scenario
Increased Customer Choice Scenario PORTFOLIOS METRIC No CO2 Opt w/ Stakeholder Stakeholder High No CO2 Opt CO2 Opt CPP Opt CO2 Opt w/ CC CPP Opt w/ CC 2016-2035 CC Dist Gen Green Utility Renewables PVRR ($MM) 25,321 25,138 25,136 25,339 25,147 25,157 28,090 26,017 25,349 CO2 Emissions (+/-) -18% -23
Slide 43: Climate Change Scenario
Climate Change Scenario PORTFOLIOS METRIC No CO2 Opt w/ Stakeholder Stakeholder High No CO2 Opt CO2 Opt CPP Opt CO2 Opt w/ CC CPP Opt w/ CC 2016-2035 CC Dist Gen Green Utility Renewables PVRR ($MM) 23,800 23,702 23,559 23,815 23,605 23,606 27,391 24,647 23,905 CO2 Emissions (+/-) -3% -9% -19% -9% -2
Slide 44: Modeling Next Steps
Modeling Next Steps Extend scenario-portfolio modeling into Prosym Supplement with sensitivity analysis Analyze and evaluate the output data How variables change over time Hot summer and polar vortex years in Climate Change scenario Aggregate and package data into a usable format that su
Slide 45: Stakeholder Exercise
Scott Park, Director IRP Analytics - Midwest Stakeholder Exercise 45
Slide 46: Sensitivity Development Exercise
Sensitivity Development Exercise Whereas scenarios are a set of correlated assumptions and describe possible futures Sensitivities are meant to assess a portfolios response to changes in a key variable Not so much of an expectation of the future But rather a view into “what happens if…” Stak
Slide 47: Closing Comments, Stakeholder Comments
Marty Rozelle, President, Rozelle Group Closing Comments, Stakeholder Comments 47
Slide 48: Next Steps
Next Steps Please complete comment cards or send by August 11 to Marty at: RGL97marty@rozellegroup.com Meeting summary and other materials will be posted on website by August 18 (http://www.duke-energy.com/indiana/in-irp-2015.asp) Next workshop is scheduled for the Friday, October 16th 48
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