Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.s. · BIST:TUPRS
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.s — Tüpraş — Q3 2022 Earnings Presentation
31 slides from Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.s's earnings presentation, Nov 3, 2022
Slide 1: Q3 2022 Earnings Presentation
Q3 2022 Earnings Presentation 3 November 2022 Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 2: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by variables and changes in und
Slide 3: Q3 2022 – Tüpraş Highlights
Q3 2022 – Tüpraş Highlights Crack Margin ($/bbl)* vs Energy Cost ($(bbl) Solid cracks supported profitability despite sharp hikes in natural gas Crack Margin ($/bbl) Energy Cost ($/bbl) 14.8 • Cracks continued to support profitability in Q3, uplifted by supply- 7.0 6.8 demand imbalance in mid-distil
Slide 4: Market
Market Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 5: Q3 2022 – Key Market Highlights
Q3 2022 – Key Market Highlights Brent prices were down in Q3 q-q with recession fears despite Elevated natural gas prices led to gas to oil switching, resulting in higher continued tight global supply refined product demand which was supportive for cracks Global Oil Market Global Crude stocks 1200 1
Slide 6: Quarterly Crack Margin Comparison ($/bbl)
Quarterly Crack Margin Comparison ($/bbl) Supply issues caused by Russia-Ukraine war and increasing refining costs continued to keep mid-distillate crack margins up in Q3 2022. Diesel Jet Fuel 2017-2019 • Tightened supply due to 2017-2019 2022 2021 2022 2021 • Strong diesel demand avg. decreased Rus
Slide 7: Heavy Crude Price Differentials to Brent ($/bbl)
Heavy Crude Price Differentials to Brent ($/bbl) Average differentials widened q-o-q in Q3’22. Between more US SPR releases and recession fears, Basrah heavy grade widened in the third quarter compared to the rest of the slate. 0 -4 Arab Heavy Basrah Heavy -8 Kirkuk CPC Average* -12 Russia Iran OPEC
Slide 8: Operations
Operations Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 9: Capacity Utilization and Quarterly Production Volume
Capacity Utilization and Quarterly Production Volume • Tüpraş produced 7.0 million tons in Q3 2022. • Capacity utilization for Q3 2022 was 98%, 2 percentage point higher y-o-y. Quarterly Production (Million Tons) Capacity Utilization (%) 2019 2020 2021 2022 Crude Oil Semi Product Feedstock Total 8 9
Slide 10: Product Sales in Q3 2022 (Million Tons)
Product Sales in Q3 2022 (Million Tons) • Tüpraş generated 8.5 million tons of sales in Q3 2022, 7% higher y-o-y. • Domestic jet fuel and international sales posted strong y-o-y growth with robust demand. Bitumen sales were also better q-o-q. Total Product Sales Domestic Sales of Selected Products D
Slide 11: Electricity Production & Sales in 9M 2022 (GWh)
Electricity Production & Sales in 9M 2022 (GWh) • Entek generated 1,190 GWh electricity in 9M 2022. • Total Zero Carbon Electricity (ZCE) sales from production increased 7.2% y-o-y in 9M’22 to 969 GWh. Total Production (GWh) Total ZCE Sales from Production (GWh) Entek’s Installed Capacity 1,190 1,08
Slide 12: Financials
Financials Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 13: Income Statement (Million TL)
Income Statement (Million TL) Q3 Q3 9M 9M Million TL % % 2022 2021 2022 2021 Net Sales 150,609 41,493 263% 365,739 95,600 283% COGS -131,111 -38,276 243% -322,428 -87,713 268% Gross Profit 19,498 3,217 506% 43,311 7,886 449% Operating Expenses -1,989 -806 147% -5,150 -2,080 148% Income/Loss from oth
Slide 14: Profit Before Tax Bridge (Q3 2021 – Q3 2022)
Profit Before Tax Bridge (Q3 2021 – Q3 2022) Strong cracks and sales volumes together with wider differentials boosted PBT, despite elevated energy expenses, TL devaluation and RUP malfunction. Entek positively contributed to PBT in Q3. Million TL 03/11/2022 Hizmete Özel / Confidential www.tupras.co
Slide 15: Financial Highlights
Financial Highlights EBITDA (mn TL) Net Income¹ (mn TL) 8,908 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 H1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q4 Q3 H1 23,456 39,221 1,887 17,812 11,554 3,778 4,039 14,067 3,713 738 956 545 1,766 2,210 7,342 21,409 526 3,495 11,902 1,495 383 542 -2,494 1,424 977 2,873 1,027 186 870 1,043 1,033 851 3,852 378 376 1,
Slide 16: Balance Sheet Analysis
Balance Sheet Analysis Net Debt bn TL In Billion TL In Billion $ bn $ Redemption Schedule (Billion TL) TL Hard Currency $ equivalent 12.0 12.0 40 2.0 8.4 9.4 37.5 30 0.7 0.8 0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 20 13.5 14.9 2.3 1.4 1.3 0.9 10 6.2 -5.8 0.4 0.3 1.2 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21* Sep-22* 0 Cash & 1 year
Slide 17: FX Exposure Management (30 September 2022)
FX Exposure Management (30 September 2022) Consolidated Hard Consolidated Hard Currency Assets Currency Liabilities Million $ Payables & Other Cash Liabilities 1,501 3,357 Tüpraş continues to employ strict FX Receivables & Other Assets ST Financial Loans policies to mitigate currency risks 269 327 •
Slide 18: Outlook for 2022
Outlook for 2022 Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 19: 2022 Refinery Maintenance Schedule
2022 Refinery Maintenance Schedule Refinery Unit Starting Quarter Duration (weeks) Purpose Status Crude Oil & Vacuum Q1 15 Done Batman Seasonal Crude Oil & Vacuum Q4 2 Planned Vacuum Q1 6 Periodic Done Lube Complex Q1 7 Maintenance Done İzmir Crude Oil Q4 7 Planned CCR & Isom. & Desulp. Revamp Q4 7
Slide 20: 2022 Expectations
2022 Expectations Med Complex Refining Margin Expectation Withdrawn Tüpraş Net Refining Margin 13 - 14 $/bbl • 26-27 mt production, 28-29 mt sales and 90 - 95% capacity utilization Consolidated Capex ~200 million $ • ~45% of capex for sustainability focused energy efficiency and environmental projec
Slide 21: 9M 2022 Results
9M 2022 Results Refining Margins ($/bbl) Capacity Utilization (%) 18.0 Tüpraş Net Margin 16.0 14.0 Tüpraş FY 100 Target 90 94.2 % total capacity 12.0 80 utilization in 9A 2022 10.0 70 8.0 60 14.9 50 6.0 40 94.2 22.3 mn tons of 4.0 30 sales and 20.1 mn 2.0 20 tons of production 0.0 10 in 9A 2022 0 9M
Slide 22: Strategic Transition Plan - Latest Updates
Strategic Transition Plan - Latest Updates ZERO CARBON ELECTRICITY BIOFUELS The takeover process of Entek, our first breakthrough in the field of zero-carbon electricity generation, Basic engineering studies were completed completed. to produce sustainable aviation fuel, We will use Honeywell's UOP
Slide 23: www.tupras.com.tr
www.tupras.com.tr 03/11/2022 Hizmete Özel / Confidential www.tupras.com.tr 23 Earnings Presentation
Slide 24: Appendix
Appendix Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 25: Turkish Market, 8M 2022
Turkish Market, 8M 2022 Q1 Q2 July-Aug Diesel 16.9 Jet1 Million 16.0 15.9 15.9 Tons 4.9 3.5 4.8 5.0 4.5 3.1 1.2 + 44.7% - 5.9% 2.1 1.0 6.1 5.3 6.3 6.1 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.4 1.2 0.2 0.7 5.2 5.6 5.6 5.4 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.6 2019 2020 2021 2022 2019 2020 2021 2022 Gasoline LPG 2.8 2.1 2.6 2.6 2.5 1.8 1.6 1.6 0.8
Slide 26: OPET
OPET Opet has 1,851 fuel stations as of September 2022 end. Opet Sunpet Total 1,851 1,766 1,802 Market Share 1,670 as of August 2022 1,615 1,560 1,504 1,444 588 611 1,393 563 1,325 1,356 463 495 18.9% 25.7% 434 431 427 435 410 418 White Black Product Product 1,240 1,073 1,126 1,152 1,175 1,203 1,214
Slide 27: Q3 Product Yields
Q3 Product Yields Q3 2021 Q3 2022 Other Bitumen 2% LPG Other 11% 3% Bitumen 2% LPG Kok 3% Gasoline 14% 3% Other 21% Gasoline white Kok Other Fuel Oil Black Prod. 2% Light white 22% 3% 5% 19% Distil. 2% Light 25% Black Prod. Distil. Fuel Oil Naphtha 22% 25% 6% 1% Naphtha Mid. Distil. 0% Jet 54% 13% M
Slide 28: Tüpraş Balance Sheet (Million TL)
Tüpraş Balance Sheet (Million TL) 30.09.2022* 31.12.2021* Diff. Diff. (%) Current Assets 121,809 66,515 55,294 83 Cash & C. Equivalents 42,320 21,176 21,144 100 Trade Receivables 29,300 13,797 15,503 112 Derivatives 3,806 3,824 -18 0 Inventories 35,169 23,758 11,411 48 Pre-paid expenses 853 193 660
Slide 29: Tüpraş and Med Margins ($/bbl)
Tüpraş and Med Margins(*) ($/bbl) Average Margins Tüpraş Net Margin Med Margin 29.8 18.3 5.7 3.7 1.7 1.3 1.6 -0.2 2019 2020 2021 Q3 2022 Gross Inventory Clean Gross Clean NET Net ($/bbl) Med Margin Margin Effect Margin Margin Margin Q3 2022 24.8 -1.5 26.4 19.8 18.3 29.8 9M 2022 21.2 0.9 20.3 14.0 14
Slide 30: Finished Product and Semi Product Imports (Thousand Tons)
Finished Product and Semi Product Imports (Thousand Tons) Product Imports Q3 2022 Q3 2021 918 489 243 149 126 120 63 60 60 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 Diesel Jet Fuel HVGO ASR F. Oil LSFO Naphtha Alkylate MTBE 03/11/2022 Hizmete Özel / Confidential Earnings Presentation www.tupras.com.tr 30
Slide 31: www.tupras.com.tr
www.tupras.com.tr 03/11/2022 Hizmete Özel / Confidential www.tupras.com.tr 31 Earnings Presentation