Expand Energy Corporation · NASDAQ:EXE
Expand Energy — Q4 2025 Earnings Presentation
37 slides from Expand Energy's earnings presentation, Feb 18, 2026
Slide 1: 4Q & FY 2025 Earnings
4Q & FY 2025 Earnings FEBRUARY 17, 2026
Slide 2: Forward-Looking Statements
Forward-Looking Statements This presentation includes “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”). Forward-looking statements include our current expectations or forecasts of
Slide 3: Operational and Financial Highlights
Operational and Financial Highlights Largest domestic natural gas 2026 outlook: ~7.5 Bcfe/d Improved Haynesville producer: ~7.4 Bcfe/d for ~$2.85bn capex breakeven by ~15% Flexed productive capacity for 4Q25: Inclusive of ~$75mm Western Haynesville Haynesville capital efficiency improvements yieldin
Slide 4: 2026 Outlook
2026 Outlook 4Q & FY 2025 EARNINGS
Slide 5: 2026 Capital Outlook
2026 Capital Outlook 2026 Capital Expenditures (Implied Midpoints of 2026 Guidance, $mm) ▪ ~$2.85bn FY26 capex inclusive of ~$75mm Western Haynesville ~$225mm ~$2.85bn improvement to ~7.5 Bcfe/d appraisal spend maintenance program ~$150 since merger close ~$400 ▪ Continued operational performance an
Slide 6: Optimizing Maintenance Production to Maximize Free Cash Flow
Optimizing Maintenance Production to Maximize Free Cash Flow (1) Centering activity to deliver ~7.5 Bcfe/d through-cycle maximizes FCF at mid-cycle prices between $3.50 to $4.00 Illustrative Annual FCF(2) at Various Mid-cycle Prices, Maintenance Production and Capital Mid-cycle Price, $/Mcf $2.50 $2
Slide 7: Attractive, Connected Portfolio
Attractive, Connected Portfolio 4Q & FY 2025 EARNINGS
Slide 8: Attractive, Connected Portfolio
Attractive, Connected Portfolio NORTHEAST APPALACHIA ~704,000 net acres >1,500 gross locations Superior Portfolio Characteristics FY26E Prod: ~2,675 MMcfe/d SOUTHWEST APPALACHIA Scale: Largest natural gas Location: Geographically ~592,000 net acres producer in North America diverse portfolio colocat
Slide 9: Consistently Outperforming Peers
Consistently Outperforming Peers Capital Efficiency Leader Across the Premier Gas Basins ($/12-month Mcfe) (1) Haynesville Northeast Appalachia Southwest Appalachia(2) $3.47 $3.52 $3.37 $3.23 $2.97 $2.76 $2.41 $2.30 $2.20 $2.20 $2.04 $2.05 $1.89 $1.90 $1.80 $1.45 EXE Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 Peer
Slide 10: Haynesville: Premium Markets with Scalable Growth
Haynesville: Premium Markets with Scalable Growth Haynesville Production (MMcfe/d) 2025 Actuals 2026 Guidance LOUISIANA 3,193 ~ 3,175 ~ 3,200 3,000 TEXAS 4Q25 4Q25 FY25 FY25 1Q26 1Q26 FY26 FY26 Rig Count 7 7 7 7 Crew Count 3 3.5 3 3 EXE Acreage ▪ Moving beyond synergy capture to operational and high
Slide 11: Haynesville Capital Efficiency Improvements Yielding <$2.75 Breakeven
Haynesville Capital Efficiency Improvements Yielding <$2.75 Breakeven Productivity Improving Through Time Demonstrating Continued Capital Improvements (12 mo. Mcfe/ft.) ($/ft.) (2) ~11% increase ~19% reduction in well performance since 2022 in well costs since 2022 ~900 $1,847 806 812 ~835 $1,657 $1
Slide 12: Haynesville Basin-Leading Breakevens
Haynesville Basin-Leading Breakevens ▪ ~22 years of derisked inventory, the deepest and highest quality in basin Average inventory breakeven has improved by ~15% > 2,000 > 2,000 ▪ Operational efficiencies and lateral since merger close extensions reducing breakevens ~1,770 ~1,440 ▪ Significantly inc
Slide 13: Northeast Appalachia: Low Breakeven, Cash Flow Machine
Northeast Appalachia: Low Breakeven, Cash Flow Machine Northeast Appalachia Production (MMcfe/d) 2025 Actuals 2026 Guidance NEW YORK ~ 2,800 ~ 2,675 2,610 2,624 4Q25 4Q25 FY25 FY25 1Q26 1Q26 FY26 FY26 PENNSYLVANIA Rig Count 3 2–3 3 3 Crew Count 2 2 2 2 EXE Acreage ▪ DTIL activation, operational effi
Slide 14: Southwest Appalachia: Liquids Exposure and Upside Potential
Southwest Appalachia: Liquids Exposure and Upside Potential Southwest Appalachia Production (MMcfe/d) 2025 Actuals 2026 Guidance OHIO PENNSYLVANIA ~65% Gas 1,597 1,559 ~ 1,625 ~30% NGLs ~ 1,475 ~5% Oil 4Q25 4Q25 FY25 FY25 1Q26 1Q26 FY26 FY26 Rig Count 2 2 2 1–2 Crew Count 1 2 2 1–2 WEST VIRGINIA ▪ A
Slide 15: 20+ Years of Appalachia Breakeven Inventory Below $3.50/Mcf
20+ Years of Appalachia Breakeven Inventory Below $3.50/Mcf Northeast Appalachia Southwest Appalachia (Avg. LL: ~13,250′) (Avg. LL: ~14,000′) >1,500 >1,500 ~1,420 ~1,360 ~1,300 ~1,180 ~1,200 ~880 ~890 ~600 $2.50 $2.75 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00+ $2.50 $2.75 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00+ ▪ Breakevens improved ~6% driven
Slide 16: Marketing & Commercial: Answering the Call for Growing Demand
Marketing & Commercial: Answering the Call for Growing Demand 4Q & FY 2025 EARNINGS
Slide 17: Connecting Lower Carbon Energy to Growing Markets
Connecting Lower Carbon Energy to Growing Markets Dynamics of Significant Growth Markets 2025 Demand Bcf/d GLOBAL LNG 2030 Demand Gain Bcf/d ▪ More than 40% demand growth by 2030, an increase of 27 Bcf/d NE APP ▪ Opportunity for Expand: Connect reliable, lower-carbon supply to global customers, dive
Slide 18: Positioned to Supply an Increasingly Tight Gulf Coast Market
Positioned to Supply an Increasingly Tight Gulf Coast Market EXE Haynesville has access to tangible LNG, power and industrial demand GULF COAST DEMAND DYNAMICS 2025 Demand Bcf/d Perryville ▪ Concentrated demand growth within Louisiana and immediate 2030 Demand Gain Bcf/d +2.3 Bcf/d adjacent regions
Slide 19: Expanding the Value of Natural Gas
Expanding the Value of Natural Gas Guiding Principles of Value Creation Mitigate Volatility Provide Customers Facilitate Premium Act on Global Enhance and Capture of Cash Flows Reliability and Flexibility Market Demand Fundamental Insights Optionality Value COMPREHENSIVE RISK MANAGEMENT Sample Comme
Slide 20: Resilient Financial Foundation
Resilient Financial Foundation 4Q & FY 2025 EARNINGS
Slide 21: Investment Grade Balance Sheet Supports Through-Cycle Value Creation
Investment Grade Balance Sheet Supports Through-Cycle Value Creation ▪ Current balance sheet is strong, however additional Debt Maturity Profile (BBB-, Baa3, BBB-) ($mm)(1) deleveraging creates more capacity at cycle-lows ~5.17% EXE RBL Capacity ▪ Deleveraging should occur at favorable prices facili
Slide 22: Balancing Debt Reduction and Shareholder Returns
Balancing Debt Reduction and Shareholder Returns ▪ Annual Base Dividend Historical Shareholder Returns • Remains priority and is paid through-cycle ($mm) • $2.30/share annually Gross Debt Reduction • 4Q25 DPS of $0.575/sh to be paid in March Share Repurchases Increased focus on $2,285 debt reduction
Slide 23: Hedge Position Preserves Upside and Provides Downside Protection
Hedge Position Preserves Upside and Provides Downside Protection Hedged Natural Gas Volumes 46 132 168 163 186 Added since 376 175 3Q Earnings (Bcf) 305 277 Last Public 230 94 Disclosure (Bcf) 163 95 28 53 23 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26 4Q26 1Q27 2Q27 3Q27 4Q27 Current Hedge Book Supports Near-Term Realizations
Slide 24: Expanding Returns, Expanding Opportunities
Expanding Returns, Expanding Opportunities Attractive, Peer-leading Resilient Responsible Connected Returns Financial Stewardship Portfolio Foundation Premium rock, returns, Most efficient operator Investment Grade Connecting affordable, runway with access to with proven track record balance sheet p
Slide 25: Appendix
Appendix 4Q & FY 2025 EARNINGS
Slide 26: Management's Guidance as of February 17, 2026
Management’s Guidance as of February 17, 2026 Production (MMcfe/d) 4Q25A 1Q26E 2026E Operating Costs (per Mcfe of Projected Production) 4Q25A 2026E Total Production 7,400 7,400 – 7,500 7,400 – 7,600 Production Expense $0.25 $0.23 – $0.28 Haynesville 3,193 ~3,175 ~3,200 Gathering, Processing and Tran
Slide 27: 4Q25 EXE Business Unit Results
4Q25 EXE Business Unit Results Haynesville Northeast Appalachia Southwest Appalachia Production (MMcfe/d) 3,193 2,610 1,597 Production Expense ($/Mcfe) $0.28 $0.19 $0.29 Differential to NYMEX ($/Mcf) $(0.20) $(0.31) $(0.38) GP&T ($/Mcfe) $0.79 $0.87 $1.37 Rigs 7 3 2 Spuds (by zone) Haynesville 12 Bo
Slide 28: 2026 Modeling Assumptions
2026 Modeling Assumptions Haynesville Northeast Appalachia Southwest Appalachia Haynesville Bossier Lower Marcellus Upper Marcellus Marcellus Utica 2026 PDP Decline (12-month decline) ~55% ~25% ~30% Differential(1) to NYMEX ($/Mcf) ($0.31) – ($0.41) ($0.25) – ($0.35) ($0.36) – ($0.46) Production Exp
Slide 29: Haynesville Drilling Excellence Enhances Returns
Haynesville Drilling Excellence Enhances Returns Key Factors for Leading Drilling Performance ▪ Superior expertise in deep, high temperature areas of Haynesville play such as the NFZ People Processes ▪ Efficiencies and lateral length extensions driving breakeven • >15-year basin experience • Tempera
Slide 30: Differentiated Haynesville Productivity and Rig Efficiency
Differentiated Haynesville Productivity and Rig Efficiency Illustrative Productive Capacity of an Average Haynesville Rig Year 100 (Cumulative Net Production, Bcf) ▪ EXE produces more volume per rig than peer average 75 ~50% more production over a two-year period compared to average Haynesville peer
Slide 31: Connecting Affordable, Reliable and Lower Carbon Energy to Growing Demand
Connecting Affordable, Reliable and Lower Carbon Energy to Growing Demand Five fundamentals that drive our decision-making and increase our ability to deliver for our stakeholders: 1 Ensure a safe and inclusive workplace, promoting collaboration and innovation Our Commitments: 2 Take meaningful acti
Slide 32: Haynesville, Northeast and Southwest Appalachia Sales Points
Haynesville, Northeast and Southwest Appalachia Sales Points NEW YORK LOUISIANA PENNSYLVANIA OHIO TEXAS WEST VIRGINIA PENNSYLVANIA Haynesville Sales Points Northeast Appalachia Sales Points Southwest Appalachia Sales Points DEDUCT FROM NYMEX ($)(1) DEDUCT FROM NYMEX ($)(1) DEDUCT FROM NYMEX ($)(1) H
Slide 33: Reducing Risk, Protecting Returns Through Hedge Program
Reducing Risk, Protecting Returns Through Hedge Program NATURAL GAS ESTIMATED NYMEX GAS SETTLEMENT ($mm) SWAPS COSTLESS COLLARS THREE-WAY COLLARS $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 Date Bought Bought Date Volume Price Volume Sold Call Volume Sold Call Sold Put NYMEX NYMEX NYMEX NYMEX Put Put Bcf $/Mcf Bcf $/Mc
Slide 34: Hedged Financial Basis
Hedged Financial Basis HAYNESVILLE NORTHEAST APPALACHIA TETCO WLA TGT Z1 TETCO M3 LEIDY EASTERN GAS Date Volume Avg. Price Volume Avg. Price Volume Avg. Price Volume Avg. Price Volume Avg. Price Bcf $/Mcf Bcf $/Mcf Bcf $/Mcf Bcf $/Mcf Bcf $/Mcf 1Q 2026 1.4 0.11 14.9 (0.22) 36.2 0.47 23.0 (0.73) 13.5
Slide 35: Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Non-GAAP Financial Measures As a supplement to the financial results prepared in accordance with U.S. GAAP, Expand Energy’s quarterly earnings presentations contain certain financial measures that are not prepared or presented in accordance with U.S. GAAP. These non-GAAP financial measures include A
Slide 36: Reconciliation of Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities to Adjusted Free Cash Flow
Reconciliation of Net Income (Loss) to Adjusted Reconciliation of Net Cash Provided by Operating EBITDAX (Unaudited) Activities to Adjusted Free Cash Flow (Unaudited) Three Months Three Months Three Months Three Months Ended Ended Year Ended Year Ended Ended Ended Year Ended Year Ended December 31,
Slide 37: Reconciliation of Total Debt to Total Capitalization
Reconciliation of Net Cash Provided by Operating Reconciliation of Total Debt to Total Capitalization Activities to Adjusted EBITDAX (Unaudited) (Unaudited) Three Months Three Months Ended Ended Year Ended Year Ended December 31, December 31, December 31, December 31, 2025 2024 2025 2024 December 31