BankGuam Holding Co. · OTC:BKGM
BankGuam — Economic Forum (March 2026)
25 slides from BankGuam's conference presentation, Mar 31, 2026
Slide 1: Global Outlook 2026
Global Outlook 2026 Paul Ma, CFA® Lead Portfolio Strategist Fidelity Institutional For investment professional use only.
Slide 2: The Feel Bad, Strong Economy in the US
The Feel Bad, Strong Economy in the US
Slide 3: Hard data vs Soft data: Consumer Spending
Hard data vs Soft data: Consumer Spending Source: Factset Aug 19, 2025 3 For investment professional use only.
Slide 4: Why no recession? Strong Balance Sheet
Why no recession? Strong Balance Sheet ECONOMY Macro & Financial Differences vs. Recent History 2000–2019 Indicator 2024 Average Household Net Worth/ 6x 8x Balanced Sheet Disposable Inocme More manageable consumer Household Credit/GDP 85% 74% leverage More manageable corporate Interest Coverage 2.9x
Slide 5: Jobs Data
Jobs Data Source: Factset. Bureau of Labor Statistics. As of 1/6/2026 5 For investment professional use only.
Slide 6: What's driving US Growth, if jobs market is no good
What’s driving US Growth, if jobs market is no good SUMMARY Labor Income Wealth Factors Influencing Potential Consumption 79% 24% Share Share 77% 22% 75% 20% 73% 18% 71% 16% 69% 14% 67% 12% 65% 10% 2005 2023 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2025 Source:
Slide 7: Affordability: Wage Growth vs Inflation
Affordability Affordability: SUMMARY Wage Growth vs. Common Man Wage Growth vs Inflation Inflation Inflation Wage Growth Common Man CPI Wage Growth 1.3 1.3 1.25 1.25 1.2 1.2 1.15 1.15 1.1 1.1 1.05 1.05 1 1 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Slide 8: Trump's average net approval ratings on issues
Trump’s average net approval ratings on issues 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 Source: Real clear politics 9/10/2025. 8 For investment professional use only.
Slide 9: Global Economy: Global Rising Tide
Global Economy: Global Rising Tide
Slide 10: Europe and Japan looking better Economically
Europe and Japan looking better Economically ECONOMY EU Economic Sentiment Japan Forecast: Profits as a Share of Sales Global Business and Investor Sentiment Forecasts 40 8% Index 30 1-Year Moving Average 20 7% 10 0 6% -10 -20 5% -30 -40 4% -50 -60 3% 2024 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 202
Slide 11: However, Japanese stimulus not good for the Yen
However, Japanese stimulus not good for the Yen Fiscal policy impulse Cyclically adjusted primary balance % of GDP Germany 3% Japan United States IMF Forecast 1% China -1% -3% -5% -7% -9% 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 Source: Fiscal impulse as measured by cyclically adj
Slide 12: China Export increased 5.5% globally to $1.2T surplus
China Export increased 5.5% globally to $1.2T surplus in 2025 Beneficiaries: China, Copper, Gold. Hurt: Other exporters China Export: 2025 vs 2024 30% 26% 20% 13% 10% 8% 7% 0% -10% -20% -20% -30% ASEAN EU US Latam Africa Source: General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China. 1/
Slide 13: Tariff
Tariff
Slide 14: I am a Tariff Man: Trump 1.0
I am a Tariff Man: Trump 1.0 Tariff and the Fed Inflation impact from China Tariff FedFunds Rate Core PCE US Effective Tariff Rate on China US Effective Tariff Rate on China 2.15 25.00 2.50 25.00 2.10 2.00 20.00 20.00 2.05 1.50 15.00 2.00 15.00 1.00 10.00 1.95 10.00 1.90 0.50 5.00 5.00 1.85 0.00 0.0
Slide 15: The Original Tariff Man: Alexander Hamilton
The Original Tariff Man: Alexander Hamilton Source: Wikipedia 15 For investment professional use only.
Slide 16: Tariff is driving down Trade Deficit
Tariff is driving down Trade Deficit ($ bil in 2025) Export Import Deficit 40 450 20 400 0 350 -20 300 -40 250 -60 200 -80 150 -100 100 -120 50 -140 0 Apr Mar May Jan Feb Aug Sep Oct June July -160 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis.. 16 For investment p
Slide 17: Tariff Backup Plan: Section 338 of Tariff Act of 1930
Tariff Backup Plan: IEEPA replaced with section 338 of Tariff Act of 1930 Brazil 50% 50% India 39% 35% Switzerland 30% Canada 30% 25% South Africa 20% 20% China 19% 19% Mexico 19% Taiwan 15% 15% Vietnam 15% 15% Indonesia 10% Malaysia 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 17 For investment professional use only
Slide 18: Inflation
Inflation
Slide 19: Sticky Inflation?
Sticky Inflation? ECONOMY Source: Factset as of 01/06/2026. 19 For investment professional use only.
Slide 20: What Market may be missing: Shelter Inflation trend
What Market may be missing: Shelter Inflation trend ECONOMY Source: Factset as of 01/06/2026. 20 For investment professional use only.
Slide 21: Fed: To cut or not to cut
Fed: To cut or not to cut SUMMARY Global Short-Term Policy Rates U.S. Eurozone UK Canada Japan Rate 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Dotted lines represent market rate expectations using OIS swaps. They end at the peak expected policy rate by the market
Slide 22: Tax Cut Impact
Tax Cut Impact
Slide 23: Corporate Tax Cut Impact on Economy (1962-2024)
Corporate Tax Cut Impact on Economy (1962-2024) Capex/Sales GDP 3% 2.50% 5% 5% 2% 4.50% 4% 1% 4% 0% 3% 0% 3% 3% -1% 2% -2% 2% 1% -3% 1% -3.30% -4% 0% Baseline Corporate Tax Corporate Tax Baseline Year after Corporate Increase Decrease Tax Decrease Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Slide 24: Corporate Tax Cut Impact on Market (1962-2024)
Corporate Tax Cut Impact on Market (1962-2024) S&P 500 return 14% 10.60% 8.90% 7.40% BASELINE YEAR OF CORPORATE YEAR OF CORPORATE YEAR AFTER COPORTATE TAX INCREASE TAX DECREASE TAX DECREASE Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. All mar
Slide 25: Important Information
Important Information Safir: Fidelity Investments that is comprised of several legal entities that provide a variety of services to intermediaries and other institutional clients including but not limited to clearing, custody, and brokerage services provided by National Financial Services LLC or Fid