Thai Oil Public Co. Ltd. · SET:TOP
Thai Oil Public — Q1 2017 Earnings Presentation
59 slides from Thai Oil Public's earnings presentation, May 17, 2017
Slide 1: Thai Oil Public Company Limited Q1/2017 Analyst Presentation
-1- Thai Oil Public Company Limited Q1/2017 Analyst Presentation 17 May 2017 Time : 10.00am. - 12.00pm. Venue : PTT Auditorium, 2nd Floor @ PTT Head Office
Slide 2: Disclaimer
-2- Disclaimer The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it. Some statements mad
Slide 3: Corporate Vision, Mission and Values
-3- Corporate Vision, Mission and Values A LEADING FULLY INTEGRATED REFINING & PETROCHEMICAL VISION COMPANY IN ASIA PACIFIC • To be in top quartile on performance and return on investment • To create a high-performance organization that promotes MISSION teamwork, innovation and trust for sustainabil
Slide 4: Corporate Governance
-4- Corporate Governance Corporate Governance Policy Roles and Responsibilities The board of directors, management and all staff shall commit to moral principles, equitable treatment to all for Stakeholders stakeholders and perform their duties for the company’s interest with dedication, integrity,
Slide 5: Our Achievement in Sustainable Development
-5- Our Achievement in Sustainable Development The World Most Sustainable Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing Company (from 28 invited companies in oil & gas refining and marketing industry) For 4 consecutive years 60 industries 3,420 companies invited 2,473 companies assessed* For 4 consecutive years
Slide 6: Presentation Agenda
-6- Presentation Agenda Q1/17 KEY HIGHLIGHTS Q1/17 PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS 2H17 & 2017 MARKET OUTLOOK
Slide 7: Q1/17 Key Market Drivers Highlights
Key Highlights -7- Q1/17 Key Market Drivers Highlights Refinery Strong Market GRM supported by 1) lower crude premium Implication 1) following narrowing light-heavy crude price differential from Improved Mkt GRM at 6.5 $/bbl abundant light crude supply 2) strong gasoline spread from (Q4/16 = 6.0 $
Slide 8: Q1/17 Robust Performance Driven by Strong GIM & Operation
Key Highlights -8- Q1/17 Robust Performance Driven by Strong GIM & Operation Key Achievements Q1/17 TOP Group Net Profit Unit : million THB (MB) Operational Maintain high reliable production Excellence Q1/17 Q4/16 Net Operating Profit (before tax) Profitability Improvement Refinery 111 % 110 % Sto
Slide 9: Q1/17 Profitability Improvement (VS Corporate Plan)
Key Highlights -9- Q1/17 Profitability Improvement (VS Corporate Plan) Cost Management Margin Improvement (Supply & Marketing / Hydrocarbon Management / General & Admin , Procurement ) & warehouse , Operation & Maintenance , Project & LP Upgrading Model , Manpower management Unit: million THB Proces
Slide 10: Q1/17 Performance Analysis
-10- Q1/17 PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS
Slide 11: Refinery: Recorded High Quarterly Utilization Rate
Refining -11- Refinery: Recorded High Quarterly Utilization Rate TOP/ Domestic Refinery Utilization Rate Domestic Oil Demand Unit: % Utilization Rate Q1/16 Q1/17 110% 111% 107% 107% 109% 110% KBD 110% 106% 107% 107% 3.5% 800 600 2.6% 90% 94% 95% 94% 95% 95% 400 4.3% 91% 89% 88% 88% 5.8% 200 70% 0 Q1
Slide 12: Q1/17: Stronger Mkt GRM supported by Lower Crude Premium
Refining -12- Q1/17: Stronger Mkt GRM supported by Lower Crude Premium Dubai Crude Price & Key Petroleum Product Spreads Refinery Utilization 2016 2017 2016 Q1/17 Q4/16 Q1/16 $/bbl Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2TD* FY16 111% 110% 107% DUBAI (DB) 30.4 43.2 43.2 48.3 53.1 51.4 41.3 % MB Intake/OSP* ULG95 - DB 18.8
Slide 13: Q1/17: Robust Contribution supported by High BZ Spread
Aromatics/LAB -13- Q1/17: Robust Contribution supported by High BZ Spread Aromatics Spreads and Margins Aromatics Production 2016 2017 2016 Q1/17 Q4/16 Q1/16 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2TD* FY16 90% 82% 80% PX**-ULG95 332 315 341 280 312 257 317 Q1/17 Market BZ**-ULG95 156 138 174 185 346 212 163 + Stron
Slide 14: Q1/17: Improved Contribution supported by Rising Lube base & Bitumen spread
Lube Base Oil -14- Q1/17: Improved Contribution supported by Rising Lube base & Bitumen spread Base Oil & Bitumen Spreads & Margins Base oil Production 2016 2017 2016 Q1/17 Q4/16 Q1/16 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2TD* FY16 88% 88% 88% 500SN-HSFO 427 409 443 367 451 550 412 % Base Oil & Specialty Sales Vol
Slide 15: Q1/17 Power Sector Performance…Growing Contribution to the Group
Power -15- Q1/17 Power Sector Performance…Growing Contribution to the Group Power Business Sector Equity holding in SPP GPSC **** Power & Steam Sales ***TOP shareholding 24.29% (8.91% via TOP and 20.79% via TP) GPSC is an associate company of TOP. Electricity(1) 2,055 Equity method is applied to rec
Slide 16: Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost
Financial -16- Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost Gross Refining Margin Refinery’s Cash Cost (Unit: US$/bbl) (Unit: US$/bbl) Market GRM Accounting GRM (Market GRM + Stock G/L) Operating Cost Interest Expense (net) 9.5 (excl. one-time non- operating item) 7.8 6.8 6.5 5.9 6.0 6.3 5.7 5.2 2.3 2.
Slide 17: Q1/17: Performance Breakdown by Business Unit
Performance Breakdown -17- Q1/17: Performance Breakdown by Business Unit Utilization/Production (%) & Net Profit (million THB) Key Points • Refinery: better contribution driven by high u-rate and strong GRM • Aromatic/LAB: higher contribution from higher U-rate and improved product spreads • Lube: h
Slide 18: Q1/17 TOP Group Consolidated P&L
Financial -18- Q1/17 TOP Group Consolidated P&L (million THB) Q1/17 Q4/16 QoQ+/(-) Q1/16 YoY+/(-) A Higher overall product price Sales Revenue 87,596 77,104 10,492 A and sale volume due to strong 56,790 30,806 demand Hedging Gain / (Loss) (86) (330) 244 B 27 (113) B Mainly from loss in inventory EBI
Slide 19: Q1/17 TOP Group Consolidated Cash Flow
Financial -19- Q1/17 TOP Group Consolidated Cash Flow (Unit: Million THB) (Unit: Million THB) Investments Operating Cash Flow Q1/17 Q1/16 Q1/17 Q1/16 Investments (2,891) (18,725) Operating Cash Flow 10,089 9,763 ST investments 244 (16,293) Net income & non-cash adj. 10,047 6,378 + Private fund (2,01
Slide 20: Q1/17 TOP Group Strong Financial Position & Financial Ratios
Financial -20- Q1/17 TOP Group Strong Financial Position & Financial Ratios Statements of Financial Position Consolidated Long-Term Debt as at 31 Mar 17 1) (Unit: million THB) Total Long-Term Debt Net Debt 217,731 218,836 68,674 million THB 9,457 million THB (US$ 1,984 million (US$ 273 million Cash
Slide 21: 2H-17 & 2017 Market Outlook
-21- 2H-17 & 2017 MARKET OUTLOOK • Crude Oil • Petroleum Products • Aromatics • Base Oil & Bitumen • Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB)
Slide 22: Crude Oil
-22- CRUDE OIL
Slide 23: Higher Crude Oil Price from Healthy Demand and Supply Cut Deal Extensions
Crude Oil -23- Higher Crude Oil Price from Healthy Demand and Supply Cut Deal Extensions Dubai Price Movement $/BBL China’s stock OPEC failed to No consensus on 80 market crash output freeze OPEC agreed to cut Base Case: Supply Cut (1) agree on an 60 output ceiling BREXIT output to 32.5 MBD 40 Low C
Slide 24: Expectation of Supply Cut Deal Extension by 6-9 Months
Crude Oil -24- 1 Expectation of Supply Cut Deal Extension by 6-9 Months A High Compliance from OPEC Producers B Supply Cuts are Partly Offset Compliance Level with Supply Cuts OPEC & Non-OPEC Supply (Mar’17 vs. Oct’16) % Unit : MBD 120% 110% 104% Total : 1.72 MBD Total : 1.23 MBD 99% 100% 0.09 79% 8
Slide 25: Potential Uptick in Oil Supplies from U.S, Libya and Nigeria
Crude Oil -25- 2 Potential Uptick in Oil Supplies from U.S, Libya and Nigeria A Dakota Pipeline to Start Service in May B Recovery of Libyan and Nigerian Oil Supplies Dakota Access Pipeline & Energy Transfer Oil Pipeline Map MBD World Oil Supply Growth (QoQ) Capacity : 2.5 North Dakota (Bakken) 470
Slide 26: Petroleum Products
-26- PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
Slide 27: Still-High Margins from Stronger Demand Growth and Lower Refinery Addition
Refinery -27- Still-High Margins from Stronger Demand Growth and Lower Refinery Addition Singapore Cracking GRM ($/BBL) 8.5 8.0 7.9 7.6 7.7 6.7 6.2 6.4 6.4 6.1 5.0 5.2 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Y2015 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Y2016 Q1-17 Q2TD-17* ($/BBL) Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 2016 Q1-17 Q2TD- 17* Key
Slide 28: Steady Gasoline Cracks from Tight Market in Asia and the ME
Refinery -28- Steady Gasoline Cracks from Tight Market in Asia 1 and the ME A Tight Market on Strong Demand Growth C High U.S. Stocks from High Runs & Weak Demand Asia Pacific Gasoline Demand Total U.S. Gasoline Inventory MBD MBBL 7.5 2H-17 : 7.1 MBD (+5.3% YoY) 280 +20.23 MBBL above 260 7.0 5-year
Slide 29: Stable Middle Distillate Cracks from High Demand and Tight Supply
Refinery -29- Stable Middle Distillate Cracks from High Demand 2 and Tight Supply A Greater Demand from Improved Economy B Tight Supply from Heavier Maintenance Asia Pacific Middle Distillate Demand MBD Global Refinery Maintenance Percent MBD 2H-17 : 11.6 MBD (+2.2% YoY) 10.0 20% 13.0 8.0 15% 6.0 12
Slide 30: Still-High Refinery Margins in 2017 as Demand Outpaces Refinery Addition
Refinery -30- Still-High Refinery Margins in 2017 as Demand Outpaces Refinery Addition Lower refinery addition in 2017 due to regulatory restrictions in Japan and delayed startup of refineries in China and Vietnam CDU Addition VS Additional Demand – AP & ME Middle East China Other AP Japan India V
Slide 31: Thailand Oil Demand Growth
Domestic -31- Thailand Oil Demand Growth Thailand Oil Demand Growth Average (B) YTD 3M/2017(B) Year on Year Y 2016 Y2017F(C) 2011-2015(B) (vs 3M/2016) Mogas (A) +7.1% +9.8% +4.3% +3.1% Jet/Kero +4.4% +6.8% +5.8% +4.4% Diesel (A) +3.4% +3.1% +2.6% +2.3% Total +4.4% +5.4% +3.5% +2.8% GDP +3.4% +3.2% +
Slide 32: Aromatics
-32- AROMATICS
Slide 33: Soft Aromatics Market due to New Supply Pressure
Aromatics -33- Soft Aromatics Market due to New Supply Pressure Aromatics Market PX CFR Taiwan-ULG95 ($/TON) BZ FOB Korea-ULG95 ($/TON) 332 315 341 342 317 313 288 280 255 246 256 257 233 212 156 138 174 185 163 98 115 101 97 74 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Y2016 Y2015 Q2TD-
Slide 34: Softer PX Market on High Capacity Addition amid Lower Supply
Aromatics -34- Softer PX Market on High Capacity Addition amid 1 Lower Supply A Softer Sentiment in 2H-17 due to Capacity Addition B Supply Pressure in 2H-17 on Lower Maintenance AP & ME Effective PX Capacity Addition AP PX Plant Maintenance Mil TON Mil TON 2.5 2.5 2.3 1H: 2H: 1.95 1H: 2H: 2.0 2.0 0
Slide 35: Pressured BZ Market on Higher Supply amid Lower Maintenance
Aromatics -35- Pressured BZ Market on Higher Supply amid Lower 2 Maintenance A Softer Sentiment in 2H-17 due to Capacity Addition B Supply Pressure in 2H-17 on Lower Maintenance AP & ME Effective BZ Capacity Addition AP BZ Plant Maintenance Mil TON Mil TON 1.5 1.38 2.3 2.5 1H: 2H: 1H: 2H: 2.0 1.0 0.
Slide 36: Base Oil & Bitumen
-36- BASE OIL & BITUMEN
Slide 37: Softer Base Oil Market due to Lower Plant Maintenance
Base Oil & Bitumen -37- Softer Base Oil Market due to Lower Plant Maintenance 500SN – HSFO ($/TON) A AP Plant Maintenance (Effective Capacity) 550 Mil TON Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Net Capacity 506 450 431 427 409 443 451 369 399 367 412 1.5 1.1 0.98 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.02 0.0 Q2TD-17* Y2015 Y2016 Q
Slide 38: Softer Bitumen Market on Weaker Demand
Base Oil & Bitumen -38- Softer Bitumen Market on Weaker Demand Bitumen-HSFO ($/TON) A Rising Bitumen Demand of Major Asian Players Average Import Bitumen Volume of Major Asian Players 82 98 Mil TON/Month 56 Growth rate in 2013-2016: 22% CAGR 23 20 0.8 0.6 -7 -13 0.4 -48 -61 -49 -40 -80 0.2 0.0 Q1-15
Slide 39: Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB)
-39- Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB)
Slide 40: Stable LAB Market on Slightly Higher Maintenance despite Lower Demand
LAB -40- Stable LAB Market on Slightly Higher Maintenance despite Lower Demand LAB Market LAB Spread** ($/TON) AP/ME Effective Maintenance/Closure* KTA 250 654 666 675 627 656 635 627 619 606 631 200 543 539 150 100 50 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Y2015 Y2016 Q2TD-17* 1H-16
Slide 41: Conclusion
-41- CONCLUSION
Slide 42: 2H-17 Market Outlook Conclusion
Conclusion -42- 2H-17 Market Outlook Conclusion (vs. 1H-17) Crude Oil Stronger Crude Oil Price from Healthy Demand and Supply Cut Deal Extensions Still-High Margins from Stronger Demand Growth and Lower Refinery Refinery Addition Softer PX and BZ Market due to New Capacity Addition and Aromatics Les
Slide 43: Thank You
-43- Thank You Any queries, please contact: at email: ir@thaioilgroup.com Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961 Fax: 662-797-2976
Slide 44: Appendix
-44- APPENDIX • Strategic Investment Plan • Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance • CDU Addition VS Additional Demand – AP & ME • World GRM / Inventories • Thailand petroleum demand by products
Slide 45: Strategic Investment Plan Approved by Board of Directors
Updated CAPEX plan -45- Strategic Investment Plan Approved by Board of Directors CAPEX Plan (Unit US$ million) Remaining capital investment Projects 2016 2017 2018 Reliability, Efficiency and Flexibility Improvement 32 45 25 Benzene Derivatives – LAB 41 11 13 Power – 2 SPPs 43 Infrastructure Improve
Slide 46: Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance
Crude -46- Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance Crude Assays based on Sources of Product Domestic demand for Reference Price TOP configuration* Crude output petroleum products** % S = 1.43 % S = 2.52 % S = 0.78 % S = 1.97 SAUDI 1 LPG Others *** 9% 4% API = 32.0 API = 31.2 API = 39.4
Slide 47: Asia Pacific and Middle East Refinery Addition
Refinery -47- Asia Pacific and Middle East Refinery Addition CDU Addition VS Additional Demand – AP & ME Start-up Nameplate Middle East Other AP Country Company period) (KBD) China Japan India Teapot Q1-17 Iran 120 Bandar Abbas - PGSOC/1 Vietnam Net Addition Q2-17 Taiwan 47 CPC Dalin AP & ME Demand
Slide 48: Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin
World GRM -48- Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin U.S. Crude Refinery Input EU 16 Crude Refinery Input Japan Crude Refinery Input MBD MBD MBD 18 Source : EIA 12 Source : Euroil 4.5 Source : METI Total Capacity: 18.1 MBD 87.57% Total Capacity: 15.8 MBD 67.15% Total Capacity: 3.8 MBD 93.68% 17 11 4.0 16 15
Slide 49: Global Crude Oil Inventories
Inventories -49- Global Crude Oil Inventories U.S. Crude Stocks (excl. SPR) Crude Oil, Cushing, Oklahoma MBBL MBBL Source : EIA Source : EIA 600 80 550 70 500 60 50 450 40 400 30 350 20 300 10 250 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2016 2017 avg 12-16
Slide 50: Global Gasoline Inventories
Inventories -50- Global Gasoline Inventories U.S. Gasoline Stocks Singapore Gasoline Stocks MBBL MBBL Source : EIA Source : IE Singapore 280 20 260 240 10 220 200 180 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2016 2017 avg 12-16 5yr-range 2016 2017 avg 12-16
Slide 51: Global Middle Distillate Inventories
Inventories -51- Global Middle Distillate Inventories U.S. Diesel Stocks Singapore Middle Distillate Stocks MBBL MBBL Source : EIA Source : IE Singapore 180 20 160 140 10 120 100 80 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2016 2017 avg 12-16 5yr-range 2016
Slide 52: Global Fuel Oil Inventories
Inventories -52- Global Fuel Oil Inventories U.S. Residual Fuel Oil Stocks Singapore Residual Fuel Oil Stocks MBBL MBBL Source : EIA Source : IE Singapore 50 40 30 40 20 30 10 20 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2016 2017 avg 12-16 5yr-range 2016 20
Slide 53: China's Refined Product Exports
China Export -53- China’s Refined Product Exports KBD China’s Gasoline Exports KBD China’s Gasoil Exports Source : China Custom Source : China Custom 350 600 300 500 250 400 200 300 150 200 100 50 100 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Slide 54: Domestic LPG Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -54- Domestic LPG Demand Thailand LPG Demand LPG Demand Highlight • In Q1/17, LPG demand fell significantly by 2.6%YoY on account of 8.6%YoY lower usages in automobile sector, as a result of fuel switching from LPG to Mogas. Moreover, LPG demand in petrochemical
Slide 55: Domestic Gasoline/Gasohol Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -55- Domestic Gasoline/Gasohol Demand Thailand Gasoline/Gasohol Demand GASOLINE/Gasohol Demand Highlight • In Q1/17, Mogas demand rose moderately by 4.3%YoY to an average 29.4 ML/day. Although, the retail price of Mogas is higher, Mogas demand was still supporte
Slide 56: Domestic Jet Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -56- Domestic Jet Demand Thailand JET-A1 Demand JET Demand Highlight • In Q1/17, Jet consumption increased significantly by 5.8% over the corresponding period last year mainly owning to booming tourism industry, leading to 6.6%YoY higher aircraft movement. The e
Slide 57: Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -57- Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand Thailand Gasoil Demand Diesel Demand Highlight • In Q1/17, Diesel demand rose moderately by 2.6% YoY as a result of Thai economic recovery. However, Diesel demand was still pressured by flooding situation in Southern part of T
Slide 58: Domestic Fuel Oil Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -58- Domestic Fuel Oil Demand Thailand Fuel Oil Demand Fuel Oil Demand Highlight • In Q1/17, Fuel Oil consumption fell sharply by 7.7%YoY, as a result of sharply falling by 38.1%YoY of electricity sector demand which pressured by late gas field maintenance (25Ma
Slide 59: Thank You
-59- Thank You Any queries, please contact: at email: ir@thaioilgroup.com Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961 Fax: 662-797-2976
Thai Oil Public Company — Q1 2017 Earnings Presentation on 6ix