Norsk Hydro Asa · OSL:NHY
Norsk Hydro Asa — CRU World Aluminium 2013
18 slides from Norsk Hydro Asa's conference presentation, May 15, 2013
Slide 1: Impacts of the EU/ETS in Northern Europe
Impacts of the EU/ETS in Northern Europe Bjørn Kjetil Mauritzen, Head of Climate Office, Hydro May 15, 2013
Slide 2: Hydro Value Chain
Hydro Value Chain Bauxite & Alumina Energy Primary Metal Rolled
Slide 3: Attractively positioned, global reach
Attractively positioned, global reach Norway Continental Europe • Leading upstream, midstream and • 900 000 tpy hydro-powered aluminium production Rolled Products positions • Technology centre, R&D for next-generation smelter • Recycling network • Hydropower developments North America • Alouette alu
Slide 4: Hydro's value chain in Norway
Hydro’s value chain in Norway From hydropower to primary metal to products the world is demanding Telemark 3,0 0,5 No reversion 2044- Karmøy 2049 Normal production Sogn 9.5 3,2 Høyanger 2051-2057 Export Røldal-Suldal 2,8 Sunndal 2023 Stakraft 6,4 TWh (2000-2020) Årdal (4)
Slide 5: Nordics turn towards considerable surplus
Nordics turn towards considerable surplus 4 key developments Consequences Global middeltemperatur Climate change Considerable surplus in Warmer, wetter, wilder– the Nordic power market more hydropower, less consumption for heating New renewables Green certificates result in increased production Drop
Slide 6: Significant increase in power capacity
Significant increase in power capacity • El-certificate market and RES- 30 directive gives increased hydro- Hydro power Wind power Nuclear power Thermal power (incl CHP) and wind- power production 25 • Increased nuclear power 20 production in Sweden and Finland 15 • Analysis by Statnett, Svenska 10
Slide 7: Lower demand growth
Lower demand growth • Mature Nordic economies in combination with energy efficiency gives lower demand growth • Reduced demand from industry induced by financial crisis • Weaker elasticity to GDP- growth over time • Climate change gives more production and lower demand
Slide 8: Nordic power production
Nordic power production Dominated by hydro and nuclear power Observations 2011
Slide 9: Indirect cost
Indirect cost • Indirect cost can be 5-6 times larger than cost of direct emissions • Varies over time and markets • Effect is based on fuel used by marginal power production rather than fuel mix • Impact of power production based on coal is twice as high power production based on gas Oil CO2 cost F
Slide 10: Historical marginal cost of coal power and Spot power at EEX
Historical marginal cost of coal power and Spot power at EEX Forward ---> CO2 cost based on EUA-price, Coal cost based on CIF ARA coal price, Production cost Coal power based on efficiency 40% Prices based on closing April 29th 2013
Slide 11: Coal power, price setter for Nordic power price
Coal power, price setter for Nordic power price Forward ---> CO2 cost based on EUA-price, Coal cost based on CIF ARA coal price, Production cost Coal power based on efficiency 40% Prices based on closing June 26th 2012
Slide 12: CO2 share of Nordic electricity prices, calculated by transfer factor
CO2 share of Nordic electricity prices, calculated by transfer factor Actual power price, Nord Pool, and CO2 share calculated by transfer factor at 0,67
Slide 13: Interconnectors are no one-way street…
Interconnectors are no one-way street… Power flows both ways in accordance with supply and demand Considerable focus on interconnectors... 70 ...but power will flow both ways €/MWh 60 Eksisterende kabler 50 Eksisterende sjøkabler 40 Nye sjøkabler 30 20 10 0 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday S
Slide 14: Towards a low-carbon economy
Towards a low-carbon economy Transition period until the rest of the world follows Europe is critical • Hydro supports a global quota regime • No level playing field before 2030 • Main challange is power sourcing until 2030 • CO2-compensation essential to avoid carbon leakage in transtion period • I
Slide 15: Energy and climate in a global perspective
Energy and climate in a global perspective Carbon footprint should become key location factor in the future In tonnes CO2-equivalents per tonne aluminium Kina Australia USA EU27 Canada Norge Island Source: Institut für angewendte Ökologie (Öko-institut e.V.), 12.5.2011 (15)
Slide 16: Infinite Aluminium Hydro
INFINITE ALUMINIUM HYDRO
Slide 17: www.hydro.com
www.hydro.com
Slide 18: World Aluminium 2013 sponsors
E) World Aluminium 2013 14-16 May 2013, The Tower Guoman, London Platinum sponsors: dubaL Dubai Aluminium Gold sponsor: ata for the world attal gtriot IU slyloUl Emirates Aluminium Silver sponsors: Power and productivity ABB — KT i 19 for a better world™ mes Kizad al + massac ance enasiattnnsnine