BP plc · LSE:BP.
BP — Investor Presentation (January 2014)
42 slides from BP's investor presentation, January 2014
Slide 1: Energy Outlook 2035
January 2014 bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats © BP 2014
Slide 2: Contents
Contents Introduction Outlook 2035: Global energy trends Liquid fuels Natural gas Coal and non-fossil fuels Carbon emissions and the fuel mix Conclusion Energy Outlook 2035 © BP 2014
Slide 3: Introduction
Introduction Outlook 2035: Global energy trends Liquid fuels Natural gas Coal and non-fossil fuels Carbon emissions and the fuel mix Conclusion Energy Outlook 2035 © BP 2014
Slide 4: Primary energy consumption growth slows
Primary energy consumption growth slows Consumption by region Ten year increments by region Billion toe Billion toe 18 3.0 2.5 Other 15 Other non-OECD 2.0 12 India India 1.5 9 1.0 China China 6 0.5 0.0 3 OECD OECD -0.5 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 1965 2000 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP 2014
Slide 5: The strong impetus from industrialization starts to fade
The strong impetus from industrialization starts to fade Consumption by sector Ten year increments by sector Billion toe Billion toe 18 3.0 Transport 2.5 15 2.0 12 Other 1.5 Industry 9 1.0 Electricity Other 6 share 0.5 Transport Industry 0.0 3 -0.5 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 1965 2000 2035
Slide 6: The slowdown in China and industry is reflected in coal
The slowdown in China and industry is reflected in coal Consumption by fuel Ten year increments by fuel Billion toe Billion toe 18 3.0 Renew.* Renew.* Hydro 2.5 15 Nuclear Hydro 2.0 12 Nuclear Coal 1.5 9 1.0 Coal 6 Gas 0.5 Gas 0.0 Oil 3 Oil -0.5 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 1965 2000 2035 *I
Slide 7: New sources help to supply sufficient energy
New sources help to supply sufficient energy Primary energy production New energy forms Billion toe Billion toe 18 3 Renewables in power 18% FSU S & C America Shale gas 12 North America 2 Tight oil, oil sands, 12% biofuels Middle East 6 Europe 1 6% % of total Asia Pacific (RHS) Africa 0 0 0% 1990 20
Slide 8: Energy decouples from GDP and fuel mix evolves
Energy decouples from GDP and fuel mix evolves GDP and energy Shares of primary energy Trillion $2012 Billion toe 220 44 50% Oil GDP 40% 170 34 30% Coal 120 24 20% Gas 70 14 Energy 10% Hydro (RHS) Nuclear 20 4 0% Renewables* 1965 2000 2035 1965 2000 2035 *Includes biofuels Energy Outlook 2035 © BP 2
Slide 9: The power sector takes an increasing share of energy
The power sector takes an increasing share of energy Inputs to power as a share of Primary inputs to power total primary energy 50% 100% World Renew. OECD Gas 40% Non-OECD 75% Nuclear Oil 30% 50% 20% Coal 25% 10% Hydro 0% 0% 1900 1945 1990 2035 1965 2000 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP 2014
Slide 10: Energy security and sustainability pose challenges
Energy security and sustainability pose challenges Primary energy net balances Energy and CO2 emissions Billion toe Index: 1965 = 100 4 500 FSU 2 Africa 400 S&C America 0 Middle East 300 Energy N America Asia -2 200 Europe CO2 -4 100 1990 2005 2020 2035 1965 2000 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP 2014
Slide 11: Liquid fuels
Introduction Outlook 2035: Global energy trends Liquid fuels Natural gas Coal and non-fossil fuels Carbon emissions and the fuel mix Conclusion Energy Outlook 2035 © BP 2014
Slide 12: The global liquids balance
The global liquids balance Demand Supply Mb/d 110 2035 level 105 Other Crude NGLs 100 Mid East North 95 Other Asia America India Other 90 85 China 80 2012 OECD Non-OECD 2012 Non-OPEC OPEC decline growth growth growth Energy Outlook 2035 © BP 2014
Slide 13: Liquids demand growth is largest in non-OECD transport
Liquids demand growth is largest in non-OECD transport Demand by sector Five year increments Mb/d Mb/d 120 4 Non-OECD Industry 100 transport Transport 3 80 OECD transport 2 60 Non-OECD ind. & other 40 1 OECD 20 ind. & other 0 0 Power 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 1965 2000 2035 2015 2020 2025 2030 2
Slide 14: Supply growth is supported initially by unconventionals
Supply growth is supported initially by unconventionals Liquids supply by type Tight oil supply Mb/d Mb/d 120 12 10% Russia OPEC NGLs China % of total 100 (RHS) 8% South America OPEC crude 80 8 Canada & Mexico Biofuels US 6% 60 Oil sands 4% 40 4 Tight oil 20 2% Other non-OPEC 0 0 0% 1990 2005 2020 2
Slide 15: Oil balances suggest OPEC will be challenged
Oil balances suggest OPEC will be challenged OPEC spare capacity OPEC share of global supply Mb/d Mb/d 10 Spare capacity 40 50% Call on OPEC (RHS) 8 45% 30 6 40% 4 35% 20 2 30% 0 10 25% 1975 1995 2015 2035 1975 1995 2015 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP 2014
Slide 16: Supply disruptions reduce the immediate impact on OPEC
Supply disruptions reduce the immediate impact on OPEC Recent disruptions and US growth Historical disruptions Change since 4Q10, Mb/d Change from pre-disruption level*, Mb/d 3 2 Sudans Syria Iran (1979) Libya (1970) 2 Iran US 1 Iraq (1990) Russia (1991) Libya Net 0 1 -1 0 -2 -1 -3 -2 -4 -3 -5 3Q11
Slide 17: OPEC countries face pressure from rising populations
OPEC countries face pressure from rising populations Population GDP per capita OPEC exports Index: 1975 = 100 Index: 1975 = 100 Mb/d and Bcf/d 400 800 40 OPEC Oil Other non-OECD Gas OECD 300 600 30 200 400 20 100 200 10 0 0 0 1975 1995 2015 2035 1975 1995 2015 2035 1975 1995 2015 2035 Energy Outlook
Slide 18: Oil trade continues to shift from West to East
Oil trade continues to shift from West to East US Regional imbalances China Mb/d Mb/d Mb/d 30 75 Middle East FSU 30 Net imports Europe Asia Pacific 25 Tight oil Africa S&C America 25 Other supply 50 N America 20 20 25 15 15 0 10 10 5 -25 5 0 -50 0 1995 2015 2035 1995 2015 2035 1995 2015 2035 Energy
Slide 19: Vehicle numbers are set to grow rapidly in the non-OECD
Vehicle numbers are set to grow rapidly in the non-OECD Vehicle fleet Vehicle ownership Transport demand Billions Vehicles per 1000 people Billion toe 2.5 800 3 US 2.0 Germany 600 Japan 2 1.5 400 China Non-OECD 1.0 Non-OECD 1 200 0.5 India OECD OECD 0.0 0 0 1965 2000 2035 1965 2000 2035 1965 2000 20
Slide 20: Policy and technology enable efficiency improvements
Policy and technology enable efficiency improvements Fuel economy of new cars Vehicle sales by type Litres per 100 km* 20 100% Plug-ins incl. EU US light vehicles BEVs China 80% 15 Full hybrid 60% 10 40% Mild hybrid 5 20% Conventional 0% including stop-start 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 0 1975 1995
Slide 21: Global transport demand growth slows
Global transport demand growth slows Transport demand by fuel Five year increments by fuel Billion toe Mtoe 3 200 Electricity Gas 150 2 Coal Biofuels 100 Oil: 1 Road 50 Non-road 0 0 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 1980 1991 2002 2013 2024 2035 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP 2014
Slide 22: Natural gas
Introduction Outlook 2035: Global energy trends Liquid fuels Natural gas Coal and non-fossil fuels Carbon emissions and the fuel mix Conclusion Energy Outlook 2035 © BP 2014
Slide 23: Natural gas demand grows in all regions and sectors
Natural gas demand grows in all regions and sectors Demand by region Demand by sector Bcf/d 500 100% China Other non-OECD Other Transport 400 80% Middle East Other OECD 300 60% Power North America 200 40% 100 20% Industry 0 0% 1965 2000 2035 1965 2000 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP 2014
Slide 24: Shale gas shows the fastest production growth
Shale gas shows the fastest production growth Gas production by type and region Shale gas production Bcf/d Bcf/d 500 120 Rest of world 24% Non-OECD other China Non-OECD shale 400 Europe & Eurasia OECD shale Canada & Mexico OECD other 80 US 16% 300 200 % of total 40 8% (RHS) 100 0 0 0% 1970 1983 1996
Slide 25: Gas trade continues to expand
Gas trade continues to expand Regional net exports Imports share of consumption Bcf/d 120 FSU Africa 40% Middle East S&C America Total 80 N America Europe Asia Pacific 30% 40 Pipeline 0 20% -40 10% LNG -80 -120 0% 1990 2005 2020 2035 1990 2005 2020 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP 2014
Slide 26: Regional supply patterns differ
Regional supply patterns differ Sources of gas supply by region Bcf/d North America Bcf/d Europe Bcf/d China 120 120 120 Net pipeline import 100 100 100 Net LNG import Shale gas 80 80 80 Other unconventional Conventional 60 60 60 40 40 40 20 20 20 0 0 0 -20 -20 -20 1995 2015 2035 1995 2015 2035 1995
Slide 27: The US shale revolution leads to market adjustments
The US shale revolution leads to market adjustments US oil and gas supply Gas share of US sector demand Billion toe 1.6 45% Industry 1.2 30% Oil 0.8 Power 15% 0.4 Gas Transport 0.0 0% 1970 1983 1996 2009 2022 2035 1965 2000 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP 2014
Slide 28: Shale gas changes the US and global gas trade picture
Shale gas changes the US and global gas trade picture US natural gas exports Share of global LNG trade Bcf/d 15 80% Net LNG Net pipeline 10 60% US Net total Australia 5 40% Africa 0 20% Qatar -5 0% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP 2014
Slide 29: Coal and non-fossil fuels
Introduction Outlook 2035: Global energy trends Liquid fuels Natural gas Coal and non-fossil fuels Carbon emissions and the fuel mix Conclusion Energy Outlook 2035 © BP 2014
Slide 30: Coal consumption growth slows in the non-OECD
Coal consumption growth slows in the non-OECD Consumption by region Ten year increments by region Billion toe Billion toe 5 Other non-OECD 1.2 Other non-OECD India 4 0.9 China India OECD 3 0.6 LNG 0.3 2 China 0.0 FSU pipeline 1 OECD -0.3 0 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 1965 2000 2035 Energy Out
Slide 31: Non-fossil fuels grow rapidly
Non-fossil fuels grow rapidly OECD Non-OECD Billion toe Billion toe 2 2 Biofuels Renewables Nuclear Hydro 1 1 0 0 1965 2000 2035 1965 2000 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP 2014
Slide 32: Renewables in power gain share most rapidly in Europe
Renewables in power gain share most rapidly in Europe Renewables share of power Renewables growth 2012-35 Thousand TWh 40% 1.2 EU US 30% 0.9 China 20% 0.6 10% 0.3 0% 0.0 1990 2005 2020 2035 China EU US OECD India Asia Energy Outlook 2035 © BP 2014
Slide 33: Carbon emissions and the fuel mix
Introduction Outlook 2035: Global energy trends Liquid fuels Natural gas Coal and non-fossil fuels Carbon emissions and the fuel mix Conclusion Energy Outlook 2035 © BP 2014
Slide 34: CO2 emissions from energy use continue to rise
CO2 emissions from energy use continue to rise Emissions by region Emissions per capita Billion tonnes CO2 Tonnes CO2 45 25 36 20 US 27 15 IEA 450 Scenario EU China 18 10 Non-OECD 9 5 World OECD India 0 0 1965 2000 2035 1965 2000 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP 2014
Slide 35: Energy intensity and carbon intensity follow different patterns
Energy intensity and carbon intensity follow different patterns Energy intensity Carbon intensity Toe per thousand $2012 GDP Tonnes CO2 per toe 0.4 4 China US 0.3 India 3 EU World 0.2 2 0.1 1 0.0 0 1965 2000 2035 1965 2000 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP 2014
Slide 36: The fuel mix diversifies over time
The fuel mix diversifies over time Evolution of the fuel mix in 20 major countries Share of dominant fuel 100% Coal China Oil 80% Euro4* Gas Non-fossil China 60% US 40% US EU 20% 1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 2020 2035 *France, Germany, Italy and United Kingdom pre-1965 Energy Outlook 2035
Slide 37: The fuel mix diversifies over time
The fuel mix diversifies over time Evolution of the fuel mix in 20 major countries Share of dominant fuel 100% Coal China Oil 80% Gas Non-fossil Japan China 60% US 40% US 20% 1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 2020 2035 *France, Germany, Italy and United Kingdom pre-1965 Energy Outlook 2035 © B
Slide 38: The fuel mix diversifies over time
The fuel mix diversifies over time Evolution of the fuel mix in 20 major countries Share of dominant fuel 100% Coal China Oil 80% Euro4* Gas Non-fossil China 60% US 40% US EU 20% 1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 2020 2035 *France, Germany, Italy and United Kingdom pre-1965 Energy Outlook 2035
Slide 39: The power sector is the main driver of fuel mix changes
The power sector is the main driver of fuel mix changes Share of power sector fuel consumption North America EU China Other non-OECD 90% Asia Coal Gas 60% 30% 0% 1990 2035 1990 2035 1990 2035 1990 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP 2014
Slide 40: Energy efficiency and fuel mix restrain emissions growth
Energy efficiency and fuel mix restrain emissions growth GDP, energy and emissions Emissions growth 2012 to 2035 Index: 1990 = 100 Billion tonnes CO2 500 35 30 400 GDP 25 Energy intensity 20 300 15 Energy Fuel mix 200 10 5 CO2 100 0 1990 2005 2020 2035 GDP growth Projected effect growth Energy Outlo
Slide 41: Conclusion
Conclusion Meeting the global energy challenge Sufficient and available? − Yes – new energy sources and efficiency improvements Secure and reliable? − Mixed – improving for some, a concern for others Sustainable? − Room for improvement Energy Outlook 2035 © BP 2014
Slide 42: January 2014
January 2014 bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats © BP 2014