Mosaic Company (the) · NYSE:MOS
Mosaic Company (the) — Investor Day (February 2012)
116 slides from Mosaic Company (the)'s investor day presentation, Feb 22, 2012
Slide 1: Mosaic Analyst Day 2012 Presentation
Mosaic Analyst Day 2012 Presentation Exhibit 99.1 The Mosaic Company
Slide 2: Safe Harbor
Safe Harbor This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results. Such statements are based upon the current beliefs a
Slide 3: Mosaic Analyst Day 2012 Presentation
Mosaic Analyst Day 2012 Presentation The Mosaic Company
Slide 4: Growth
Growth The Mosaic Company
Slide 5: 2010 Potash Industry Capacity
2010 Potash Industry Capacity • Mosaic MOP production: – 12% Globally – 38% North America Source: IFA, Fertecon, Company Reports and Mosaic. (a) (a) (a) Reflects capacity related to Esterhazy tolling agreement between Mosaic and PotashCorp in which up to 1.3 million tonnes will revert to Mosaic at t
Slide 6: Impact of Tolling Agreement Settlement
Impact of Tolling Agreement Settlement PotashCorp 47.4% + Tolling Tolling Agreement 6.2% Mosaic 37.1% Agrium 9.3% The actual effect of the tolling agreement reversion is dependent on members’ proven capacity expansions in 2012. Source: Mosaic 2012 Canpotex Export Entitlements
Slide 7: New Capacity Driven by Available Returns
New Capacity Driven by Available Returns
Slide 8: Aggressive Expansion Program
Aggressive Expansion Program Source: Mosaic as of Nov. 30, 2011, all periods fiscal.
Slide 9: For Mosaic, it Starts with Potash Expansion
For Mosaic, it Starts with Potash Expansion
Slide 10: Locations
Locations • Belle Plaine • Colonsay • Esterhazy
Slide 11: Belle Plaine
Belle Plaine Source: Mosaic as of Nov. 30, 2011, all periods fiscal. $0.0 $0.5 $1.0 $1.5 $2.0 $2.5 $3.0 $3.5 Projected Investment Billion USD Completed Committed Future 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Projected Peaking Capacity MillionTonnes Existing Committed Future
Slide 12: Belle Plaine
Belle Plaine
Slide 13: Belle Plaine – 2011 Additions
Belle Plaine – 2011 Additions
Slide 14: Colonsay
Colonsay Source: Mosaic as of Nov. 30, 2011, all periods fiscal. $0.0 $0.2 $0.4 $0.6 $0.8 $1.0 $1.2 $1.4 Projected Investment Billion USD Completed Committed Future 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Projected Peaking Capacity Million Tonnes Existing Committed Future
Slide 15: Colonsay
Colonsay
Slide 16: Colonsay
Colonsay
Slide 17: Esterhazy
Esterhazy Source: Mosaic as of Nov. 30, 2011, all periods fiscal. $0.0 $0.5 $1.0 $1.5 $2.0 $2.5 Projected Investment Billion USD Completed Committed 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 Projected Peaking Capacity Million Tonnes Existing Tolling Committed
Slide 18: Esterhazy K2
Esterhazy K2
Slide 19: Esterhazy K3
Esterhazy K3
Slide 20: Esterhazy K3 Mine Site Service Shaft
Esterhazy K3 Mine Site Service Shaft
Slide 21: Projected Peaking Capacity
Projected Peaking Capacity Source: Mosaic as of Nov. 30, 2011, all periods fiscal. 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 Million Tonnes Existing Tolling In Progress Future
Slide 22: Innovation
Innovation The Mosaic Company
Slide 23: Innovation At Mosaic
Innovation At Mosaic • UNIQUELY POSITIONED • Value for Growers & Distributors • Value for Shareholders
Slide 24: Our Innovation Focus – Delivering the "Best Total Solution"
Our Innovation Focus – Delivering the “Best Total Solution” Source: Adapted from Treacy and Wiersema, “The Discipline of Market Leaders”
Slide 25: Our Innovation Focus – Delivering the "Best Total Solution"
Our Innovation Focus – Delivering the “Best Total Solution” Source: Adapted from Treacy and Wiersema, “The Discipline of Market Leaders”
Slide 26: Innovation is Critical to:
Innovation is Critical to: • Accomplish our Mission • Differentiate Mosaic • Enhance Sustainable Options • Increase Value Strategic Drivers
Slide 27: It Starts with Identifying a Need
1 2 3 Sulfur Deficiencies Zinc Deficiencies Boron Deficiencies It Starts with Identifying a Need Mosaic’s products, knowledge & services are designed to address these needs and create value Sources: (1) Mosaic Agronomy R&D derived from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Harmoni
Slide 28: Crop Nutrient Needs
Crop Nutrient Needs • Guides systems approach • Goal to maximize profitability Seasonal Sulfur Uptake* Source: 2011 Nutrient Uptake Study, University of Illinois, Dr. Fred Below Note: This study was proprietary to Mosaic. Seasonal Phosphorus Uptake* * Advanced Technology Corn Model
Slide 29: Innovation – Our Portfolio Evolution
Innovation – Our Portfolio Evolution Consistent development of new products and services that provide additional value to the grower, distributor and Mosaic
Slide 30: Innovation – More Than Just Products
Innovation – More Than Just Products Tools to Educate and Differentiate
Slide 31: Innovation At Mosaic
Innovation At Mosaic • Uniquely Positioned • VALUE FOR GROWERS & DISTRIBUTORS • Value for Shareholders
Slide 32: Adding Value For Growers
Net Return $28,000 Assumptions: Corn Acres: 1,000 Yield Target: 200 bushels/acre MicroEssentials ® Yield Advantage: 5% Corn Price: $5.00/bushel ROI (%) 27% 3% to 7% yield gains based on comprehensive performance trials Source: 2009 Advanced Agronomic Practices Study, University of Illinois, Dr. Fred
Slide 33: Distribution Value
Distribution Value • Retailer Differentiation – Maintain current growers – Gain new growers • Incremental margin/tonne • Incremental sales tonnes
Slide 34: Brazil Value Creation
Brazil Value Creation 3.32 Total Value 2.29 Grower Value 1.03 MOS Distribution Value Value Created • Higher Yield • Quicker Planting • Customer Services & Education NPK Blend w/SSP NPK Blend w/S9 Brazil Soybean MicroEssentials ® Demo Plots (2008 -2011) +3.32 Bags/Ha Diesel fuel & labor savings bags/
Slide 35: What do our Grower & Distributor Customers Have to Say?
What do our Grower & Distributor Customers Have to Say?
Slide 36: Innovation At Mosaic
Innovation At Mosaic • Uniquely Positioned • Value for Growers & Distributors • VALUE FOR SHAREHOLDERS
Slide 37: Innovation – We're Outpacing Our Competitors
Innovation – We’re Outpacing Our Competitors Investments • Research & Development • Production Capacity • Customer Service & Education Source: Mosaic Estimate Basis June 2012 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 Top Global Phosphate Fertilizer Suppliers DAP/MAP Enhanced Phosphate
Slide 38: Mosaic Phosphate Sales by Product
Source: Mosaic, all periods fiscal. (1) Crop nutrient products, excluding non-phosphate component of blends and other 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 2012 (Q2) Mosaic Phosphate Sales by Product (1) MicroEssentials® MAP DAP MicroEssentials® % Total P Netback $
Slide 39: Innovation – What We Are Achieving
Innovation – What We Are Achieving Source: Mosaic, all periods fiscal. FY11 Milestones • MicroEssentials ® net sales exceed $500 million • Three new launches – MicroEssentials ® S9 – MicroEssentials ® S5 – Nexfos ® 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 MicroEssentials ® Sales and Capacity MicroEssentials® MicroEs
Slide 40: Estimated Incremental Production Margin
Estimated Incremental Production Margin (1) Granular MIcroEssentials ® Dollars per tonne P 2 O MIcroEssentials ® Dollars per tonne Granular MIcroEssentials ® Percent $155 $38 Margin over DAP Source: Mosaic $0 $20 $40 $60 0.0% 4.0% 8.0% $0 $60 $120 $180 (1) Estimated margin based on average MicroEsse
Slide 41: MicroEssentials: Driving Results
MicroEssentials ® : Driving Results • Proven benefits to growers • Acknowledged benefit to distributors • Clear benefit to shareholders
Slide 42: Bottom Line on Innovation
Bottom Line on Innovation Accomplishing our MISSION Fulfilling our VISION Achieving our STRATEGIC PRIORITIES Living our CORE VALUES Delivering MORE VALUE “Help the world grow the food it needs.” “Be recognized globally as the best crop nutrition company.” “Grow Phosphates & Potash, build a culture o
Slide 43: Operational Excellence
Operational Excellence The Mosaic Company
Slide 44: Phosphates
Phosphates ROICworks!
Slide 45: Leveraging Operational Excellence To Overcome Challenges in Phosphates
Challenge Solution Leveraging Operational Excellence To Overcome Challenges in Phosphates ROIC works! Maintain 1 st Quartile Cost Position Mitigate the Impact of South Fort Meade Rock Production in other Florida mines
Slide 46: Initial Aspirations for ROICworks!
Initial Aspirations for ROICworks! Reduce controllable annual cost base by $100 million within ~18 months of launch Reduce invested capital by $300 million Create a “Burning Platform” ROIC WACC even in down cycles
Slide 47: Multiple Focus Areas & Waves Start the Journey to Continuous Improvement
Multiple Focus Areas & Waves Start the Journey to Continuous Improvement Spare Parts Inventory Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Contractor Management Ops/Wrench Time Other Initiatives Support Groups Process Chemicals September 2009 Kickoff 2010 - Future Waves Cogeneration Prep Work
Slide 48: me Sli starts here
me Sli starts here Over 20 Initiatives Spare Parts Process Chemicals Contractor Management Support Groups Tracking and Support Mosaic
Slide 49: Annual Efficiency Gains
$188 MILLION $125 MILLION $29 MILLION $10 MILLION $24 MILLION (1) Gains are based on annualized run-rate operating savings and cost avoidance from ROIC initiatives. in Annual Efficiency Gains (1) at December, 2011
Slide 50: What Was Our Primary Rock Objective?
What Was Our Primary Rock Objective? To Increase Rock Production at Lowest Possible Cost Main Areas of Focus: • Utilization of Draglines • Improved Maintenance Workflow & Logistics • Beneficiation Plant Efficiency • Improved Performance Management • Pumping Efficiency
Slide 51: Increased Dragline Utilization
Increased Dragline Utilization To 65% from Baseline 41% Reduction in Unproductive Time Reduction in Maintenance Downtime Quality Run Time
Slide 52: Improved Maintenance Workflow
Improved Maintenance Workflow Performance & Training are Driving Productivity and Lower Cost Maintenance Process Permit Process Procurement Kitting Process Supervisor Focus Performance Management Best Practice Sharing Reduced Contractors Reduced Overtime Improved Productivity Improved Engagement Cha
Slide 53: ROICworks! Leading the Way in Phosphate
—— Roicworks! Leading the Way in Phosphate
Slide 54: Four Corners Outstanding Results: Increasing Volume and Lowering Costs
131 84 306 318 523 628 730 894 1,240 Four Corners Outstanding Results: Increasing Volume and Lowering Costs Total yards moved increased from approximately 7 million to in excess of 10 million annualized. Source: Mosaic 1,000 1,200 1,400 Mar- Apr-11 May- Jun Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Four Corners Annu
Slide 55: Four Corners Outstanding Results: Increasing Volume and Lowering Costs
Four Corners Outstanding Results: Increasing Volume and Lowering Costs Source: Mosaic, all periods fiscal. $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 2012ytd Four Corners Rock Production Costs/Ton Cash Costs Other Costs
Slide 56: ROICworks! Supporting Journey to Self-Sufficiency in Power
160 Mines (1) 156 Plants 178 32 53 53 ROICworks! is Supporting our Journey to Self-Sufficiency in Power and Lower Cost! Total Energy Cost ~$185 million (1) Excludes Hopewell mine closed FY 2011 Pre-ROICworks! ROICworks! Opportunity Source: Mosaic Consumption Generation Already Implemented Current &
Slide 57: Significant Productivity Improvements
5% 17% +22% Significant Productivity Improvements Reduction Direct Work Baseline Indirect Work (Feb 2010) Non-Contributory Direct Work Current (Q2 2011-12) Reduction 30% 52%
Slide 58: Significant Improvements Achieved in Workflow
Significant Improvements Achieved in Workflow Processes Have Increased Productivity: • Performance Management Scorecards & Dialogues • Permitting Process Improvements • Procurement & Kitting Process Improvements Performance Management Kitting
Slide 59: Monthly Maintenance Savings
~$1 million Monthly maintenance savings Maintenance labor down 600 manhours/day Monthly Maintenance Savings Source: Mosaic 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 Combined Phosphates Maintenance Daily Manhours / month
Slide 60: What's Next: Continue Transformation in Mines & Plants
Four Corners Wingate South Fort Meade Hookers Prairie New Wales Riverview Bartow Louisiana What’s Next: Continue Transformation in Mines & Plants • Reliable Operations • Maintenance Productivity • Reduced Waste • Disciplined Performance Culture
Slide 61: We'll Get There with Many Small Wins
We’ll Get There with Many Small Wins Wingate Flotation Capacity Upgrade Results Source: Mosaic 50% Increase in Historic Feed Rates Monthly Production Record 136,700 tons in December 2011
Slide 62: What's Next?
What’s Next? BROADER APPLICATION Across Mosaic Operations Series of Initiatives FROM A TO Sustainable CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT TARGET $100 MILLION FROM TARGET BY 2015 $250 MILLION TO
Slide 63: Mosaic Analyst Day 2012 Presentation
Mosaic Analyst Day 2012 Presentation The Mosaic Company
Slide 64: Brine Inflow Management
Brine Inflow Management The Mosaic Company
Slide 65: Saskatchewan Focus with Regina & Saskatoon Overlay
Saskatchewan Focus with Regina & Saskatoon Overlay Dawson Bay Aquifer
Slide 66: Aquifer Composition Advantages
Aquifer Composition Advantages Dawson Bay Formation • Saturated solution • Contains calcium sulfate Gypsum Crystals SATURATION Management Calcium Chloride Calcium Sulfate GYPSUM CRYSTALS Precipitate
Slide 67: Elevation Advantage
Inflow point is over 20,000 fee t from the shaft and over 150 feet below the shaft elevation Elevation Advantage Distance from the Mine Shaft (in feet) -200 -150 -100 -50 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
Slide 68: Costs of Brine Management
Category 2011 Gross Cost Costs of Brine Management Pumping Grouting Backfill Monitoring $36 million $48 million $44 million $24 million TOTAL $152 million $33 $56 $72 $81 $133 $152 GROSS COSTS (Millions)
Slide 69: Pumping Capacity
National Pumps at K2 Shaft Brine Ponds at K2 Pumping Capacity
Slide 70: Grouting
Grout Injection Site Horizontal Drilling Technology Grouting
Slide 71: Cement Grouting Surface Setup
Cement Storage (Class G Cement) Pumper Truck Well Batch Mixer Wireline (Pressure Gauge) ADDITIVES FL-63 CD-31 Water Cement Grouting Surface Setup Cement Grout Density Waste/Cement 1901 kg/m3 0.44
Slide 72: Backfill
Backfill Backfill
Slide 73: Monitoring: Pressure & Saturation
Monitoring: Pressure & Saturation 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 NaCI (wt%) Gypsum Solubility vs. NaCI Saturation
Slide 74: Summary: Brine Inflow Management
Summary Brine Inflow Management Natural characteristics have facilitated brine inflow management for over 25 years • Elevation characteristics of mine • Saturation and sulfate content of Dawson Bay brine Brine Management Costs Costs of brine management are expected to continue $170-180 MILLION For F
Slide 75: A Permitting Update
A Permitting Update The Mosaic Company
Slide 76: Mosaic's Permitting
Mosaic’s Permitting • 100+ Years of Successful Mining • DNA Embedded in Local Communities and State of Florida • Importance to U.S. Agriculture and Trade • Recent Short Term Anomalies – Long Term Track Record of Success – County | State | Federal Permits • Most Strategic Phosphate Rock Reserve in U.
Slide 77: Mosaic's Permitting: South Fort Meade Update
Mosaic’s Permitting • United States Federal District Court (Jacksonville, Florida) – Waiting for Merits Ruling on South Fort Meade Permit • United States Eleventh Circuit Court of Appeals (Atlanta, Georgia) – Pending Motion for Limited Stay of Preliminary Injunction (Uplands Mining) – Pending Appeal
Slide 78: Mosaic Holdings Mine Locations
Mosaic Holdings Mine Locations Mosaic – The Past, Present and Future
Slide 79: Future Permits
FUTURE MINE DATE NEEDED RESERVE TONNES Future Permits DeSoto 81.7 million Ona 157.0 million Wingate East 32.7 million DeSoto 81.7 million Ona 157.0 million Wingate East 32.7 million
Slide 80: Area-wide Environmental Impact Statement
Area-wide Environmental Impact Statement Areawide Environmental Impact Statement (AEIS) Update AEIS Area of Consideration
Slide 81: AEIS Milestones (Actual & Planned)
AEIS Milestones (Actual & Planned) AEIS Public Scoping Meeting in Lakeland & Punta Gorda March 23 & 25, 2011 Close of Initial AEIS Public Comment Period April 25, 2011 Issuance of Draft AEIS & Draft Permit Notices May 2012 Public Meetings in Lakeland & Punta Gorda End of June 2012 Planned Issuance o
Slide 82: AEIS Public Comment Summary
91% 8% AEIS Public Comment Summary Supportive of the phosphate industry and continued mining Neutral or mixed feelings toward the phosphate industry Unsupportive or generally concerned about the impacts of the phosphate industry 1%
Slide 83: Permitting
Permitting SUCCESSES • Mosaic Track Record • Major Projects • Legislative Successes
Slide 84: Permitting – A Century of Success
Mosaic TRACK RECORD Permitting – A Century of Success • Every permit applied for – every permit received (100% success rate) • Mosaic has prevailed on four administrative challenges to State issued permits • Preliminary injunction on South Fort Meade - Hardee County Extension relates to ACOE federal
Slide 85: Permitting – A Century of Success
Permitting – A Century of Success Major PROJECTS (Permitted in FY 2011/2012) • Wingate Extension ERP • Wingate Extension Manatee County Planning Commission Approval • Hookers Prairie South Pierce Remnant ERP • Fort Green Plant Site • Hillsborough County Mining Units • Streamsong ® Resort and Confere
Slide 86: Permitting Strategy
Permitting STRATEGY • Timely Permitting • Maximize Reserves • Legislative Efforts • Relationship Building • Public Affairs Outreach • Litigation
Slide 87: Financial Implications
Financial Implications The Mosaic Company
Slide 88: Cyclical Business
Cyclical Business Cyclical business – with higher highs and higher lows Source: NYMEX and Green Markets.
Slide 89: Drivers of Value Creation
• Revenue Growth • Margin Expansion • Capital Management Drivers of VALUE CREATION
Slide 90: Capital, Execution & Innovation
Capital, Execution & Innovation
Slide 91: Potash Expansion Isolated Impact
Potash Expansion Isolated Impact *Prices and operating rates held at FY2011 actuals Source: Mosaic, all periods fiscal. $0.0 $1.0 $2.0 $3.0 $4.0 $5.0 $6.0 Potash Segment Revenue Growth*
Slide 92: Growing Phosphates Revenue: Premium Products Leverage
1.22 x Revenue/ P 2 O 5 Premium Products Leverage* Growing Phosphates Revenue 1.06 x Revenue/ Product Tonne 1.15 x Product Tonne/ P O = x *Compared to DAP, f.o.b. Florida Source: Mosaic
Slide 93: Execution & Innovation
Execution & Innovation
Slide 94: Phosphate Margins: Importance of Raw Material Costs
Phosphate Margins Importance of Raw Material Costs Source: Green Markets, Fertecon, Mosaic Stripping Margin = f.o.b. plant price less sulfur, ammonia and manufacturing cost. $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $ / ton DAP Stripping Margin Calculated from Published Spot Prices for a Central Fl
Slide 95: Phosphate Margins: Operational Excellence
Phosphate Margins Operational Excellence Maintain bottom quartile position while offering above “commodity” service and premium products $188 MILLION By December 2011 Expected Savings $250 MILLION By FYE 2015 Source: Fertecon, IFA and Mosaic. MAP delivered Brazil, Mosaic weighted average cost in Flo
Slide 96: Phosphates Margins Significant Opportunity
Opportunity 2011 Margin Impact* Phosphates Margins Significant Opportunity South Fort Meade Resolution 4% Double MicroEssentials ® Sales 2% Fully-Integrated Ammonia Production 17% Source: Mosaic *Impact on fiscal 2011 Phosphates segment operating margins assuming each change in isolation
Slide 97: Potash Margins: Operational Excellence
Potash Margins Operational Excellence Mitigating wage inflation – historical cost increases vs. expectations Economies of Scale $200 MILLION By FYE 2013 Expected Benefits Over MOP Delivered US Cornbelt weighted average cost as of June 30, 2009, excludes Canadian resource taxes and royalties for all
Slide 98: Capital Management
Capital Management Balance Sheet | Capital Allocation | Returns to Owners 2, Capital . Management | Mosaic
Slide 99: Balance Sheet
Balance Sheet Reflects a store of value Balance Sheet Targets Liquidity Rating Flexibility
Slide 100: Generating Value Over the Cycle
Generating Value Over the Cycle Future Drivers • Potash expansion • Margin expansion • Deployment of capital 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Nov. TTM Return on Invested Capital* Source: Mosaic, see reconciliation, all periods fiscal
Slide 101: Potash Expansion Return Sensitivities
Price FOB Mine ROIC Potash Expansion Return Sensitivities $200 9.3% $300 19.0% $400 25.6% $500 31.0% Source: Mosaic, Assumptions include holding prices constant, and continued on- time, on-budget execution.
Slide 102: Capital Allocation Hurdle Rates
Probability of meeting or exceeding required return Hurdle Rates (%) Capital Allocation Base Rate 11.8% Country/External Risk - 4.8% Project Risk - 9.7% Required Return 11.8% - 26.3% Source: Mosaic 0% 0%
Slide 103: Priorities for Capital Redeployment
Priorities for Capital Redeployment INVESTING for growth A committed, sustainable DIVIDEND – Competitive – Growing SHARE repurchases over special dividends – Manage cyclicality of cash flows
Slide 104: Summary
Mosaic has the opportunity , the vision and the capabilities to increase shareholder value exclusive of the impact of cyclical price and volume movements. Source: Mosaic Summary Mosaic has the opportunity , the vision and the capabilities to increase shareholder value exclusive of the impact of cycl
Slide 105: Mosaic Analyst Day 2012 Presentation
Mosaic Analyst Day 2012 Presentation The Mosaic Company
Slide 106: ROIC Non-GAAP Reconciliation
ROIC Non-GAAP Reconciliation FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 ($ in millions) Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual YTD Q4 YTD Q4 YTD Q4 YTD Q4 YTD Q4 YTD Q4 YTD Q2 Operating Profit $ 393.6 $ 616.3 $2,806.7 $2,400.9 $1,270.8 $2,664.2 $1,526.6 Taxes $ 154.4 162.4 714.9 436.
Slide 107: P&K Market Outlook
P&K Market Outlook The Mosaic Company
Slide 108: Safe Harbor
Safe Harbor This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results. Such statements are based upon the current beliefs a
Slide 109: Key Features
Key Features • Positive demand drivers • Expect pause in K shipment growth in 2012 • Forecast further P shipment growth in 2012 • 2012 – anticipate slow start but fast finish • 2013 – potential for strong demand growth • New capacity online but still several supply uncertainties
Slide 110: Positive demand drivers
Positive demand drivers 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 8.00 O N D J F M A M J J US$ BU New Crop Corn Prices Daily Close of the New Crop Option October 1 to June 30 Source: CBOT
Slide 111: Positive demand drivers
Positive demand drivers 2013/14 Grain and Oilseed Scenario Assumptions Low Medium High Harvested Area Change 0.00% 0.25% 0.50% Yield Deviation from Trend * Largest Negative 0.0% Largest Positve Demand Growth 1.75% 2.00% 2.25% * Largest deviation from the 11-year trend 2000-2010 10/11E11/12F12/13F13/
Slide 112: Expect pause in K shipment growth
Expect pause in K shipment growth 54-56 58-60 11E 12F 13F Mil Tonnes KCl World Muriate of Potash Shipments Source: Fertecon and Mosaic
Slide 113: Forecast P shipment growth
Forecast P shipment growth Mil Tonnes DAP/MAP/TSP World Processed Phosphate Shipments Source: Fertecon and Mosaic
Slide 114: MicroEssentials
MicroEssentials: Mgsaic aaes .
Slide 115: Slide 115
Slide 116: Forecast Phosphate Shipments
Forecast Phosphate Shipments Processed Phosphate Shipment Forecasts DAP/MAP/MES/TSP Shipments Dec '11 Feb '12 Dec '11 Forecast Feb '12 Forecast Feb '12 Forecast Mil Tonnes Actual Estimate Estimate Low High Low High Low High Asia and Oceania 33.6 33.8 34.1 35.1 36.7 35.7 37.2 37.4 38.7 China 16.0 17.