Elia Group SA/NV · EURONEXT:ELI
Elia Group SA/NV — presentations elia adequacy study 2018 sr design en
45 slides from Elia Group SA/NV's investor presentation, Jul 9, 2018
Slide 1: Task Force Implementation of Strategic Reserve
Task Force Implementation of Strategic Reserve Task Force – July 9, 2018
Slide 2: Meeting Agenda
Meeting Agenda Status Tender 2019 Adequacy study 2019 Market response study update Results of public consultation on methodology Launch of public consultation on the input data SR design Winter 2019/20 Transfer of Energy for SDR Emergency Generators Other Task Force iSR - July 9, 2018 2
Slide 3: Status Tender 2019
xia Status Tender 2019
Slide 4: Timeline 2018
Timeline 2018 (15.02.2018) Possible review of volume by Minister (following Ministerial Decree) Entry into force Ministerial Decree 1/9/2018 15/1/2018 Contracts Call for Candidates Deadline Submission offers CREG advice reasonability prices signed 15/2/2018 16/4/2018 28/6/2018* 31/10/2018 Call for T
Slide 5: Adequacy Study 2019
Adequacy Study 2019 Update market response study - Presentation E-CUBE
Slide 6: Public consultation on methodology and input data
Adequacy Study 2019 Public consultation on methodology and input data
Slide 7: Reactions on the public consultation on methodology
4 reactions on the public consultation on methodology 23 April 2018 – 21 May 2018 4 answers • Stakeholders acknowledge the FEBELIEC – Michaël Van Bossuyt continuous improvements and effort to increase CREG – Bart De Waele transparency by Elia FEBEG – Steven Harlem Dominique Woitrin Answers cluster
Slide 8: Iteration step smaller than 100MW in volume assessment
Assumptions Does it make sense to have an iteration step smaller than 100MW in the volume assessment study? There‘s a distinction between hypotheses errors and modelisation accuracy and robustness. We should and can only discuss the latter for answering this question. When increasing the SR step, th
Slide 9: LOLE_AVG analysis
Assumptions LOLE_AVG analysis 33 66 99 132 1320 1980 9
Slide 10: LOLE95 analysis
Assumptions LOLE95 analysis 33 66 99 132 1320 1980 10
Slide 11: Answer in consultation report
Assumptions Answer in consultation report 1. The iterative process proceeds in blocks of 100 MW, and therefore the resolution of the results is thus also on 100 MW blocks. 2. This step size was chosen as small as possible, but still ensuring statistically robust results for the determination of the
Slide 12: Remarks on forced outage rates and nuclear availability
Assumptions Remarks on forced outage rates and on availability of nuclear power plants “Official” rates/availability figures given by power plants producers are not “reliable” and can lead to wrong assessments . Assessments might thus be too optimistic. A specific “low probability-high impact” sensi
Slide 13: Remark on Emergency Generators
Assumptions Remark on Emergency Generators The approach used in this study makes sure that all production units reported to Elia by DSOs (whether or not aggregated) are taken into account. Data provided by DSOs consists mainly of small distributed generators, which production is mainly related to en
Slide 14: Effect of updates on Market Response volumes
Market Response Comment on effect of updates on the Market Response volumes within the following years (both volumes and the % projected evolutions) Volumes and projected evolutions have been updated by ECube consultants, (see previous presentation within the TF iSR). The method is conceived to take
Slide 15: Usage of demand growth data from IHS MARKIT
Demand growth Comments regarding usage of demand growth data from IHS MARKIT On weather correction factors: Elia makes sure that no double counting is made between considerations made by IHS MARKIT when using “weather correction factors” and Elia’s temperature sensitivity of load. On usage of demand
Slide 16: Effect of NEMO, ALEGrO and BeDeLux on SR volumes
Flow Based Comments on the effect of NEMO and ALEGrO and BeDeLux on SR volumes Flow based domains used to evaluate the volume of strategic reserve are constructed with the current rules for the calculation of the day-ahead flow based domain including the LTA patch and MinRAM patch. The effect of the
Slide 17: Implementation of flow based methodology
Flow Based Comments on implementation of flow based methodology Only winter 2017 typical days to be used. The latest set of typical days as defined within the CWE SPAIC process will be used. This means that a new set of typical days based on 2017 will be used compared to the ones used for winter 201
Slide 18: Comment on publication of results
Publication of Results Comment on publication of results Elia should provide 0,1 hours and 0,1 GWh resolution. Elia takes note of this comment by the CREG and will publish its results to 1 decimal value accuracy. Elia should publish in the volume assessment report, the activation criteria, equivalen
Slide 19: Volume determination: two public consultations
Volume determination: two public consultations are held Stakeholder comments were taken into account: sufficient duration of consultations is foreseen. 23.04 21.05 21.08 27.08 24.09 9.07 1 2 19
Slide 20: Data for Belgium categories
2 Data for Belgium will be prepared in the following categories Available sources Needs Variables Demand Outages Generation • Forced outages • Hourly profile • Nuclear and fossil production • Total demand growth • Renewables, CHP • Market response • Pump/turbine/Hydro Interconnections • Flow
Slide 21: SR design Overview
xia SR design Overview
Slide 22: Upcoming Electricity Law Amendment related to Strategic Reserves
Upcoming Electricity Law Amendment related to Strategic Reserves • Drivers for amendments Implement engagements taken in the context of the EC State Aid Inquiry Improve the framework after some years of experience • Status 4/7/2018: Discussion of E-law amendment on SR in Parliamentary Commissi
Slide 23: Main changes covered by the amendments
Upcoming Electricity Law Amendment related to Strategic Reserves Overview of main changes covered by the amendments • Changed notification regime for capacity going out-of-market Changed timings for temporary / definitive closures Also applicable on structural reductions (as from 5 MW) • Timing
Slide 24: Administrative Imbalance Price (AIP)
Administrative Imbalance Price (AIP) • In the Task Force of February 8, 2018, Elia presented its last proposal for the AIP, resulting in • Elia’s tariff modification proposal submitted to CREG on 08/06/2018 • CREG’s decision on 28/06/2018 • A price floor of “at least 10.500 €/MWh” replaces the price
Slide 25: Workplan SR Design Winter 2019/20
Workplan SR Design Winter 2019/20 Topic Trigger Planning Modification E-Law + Public consultation on ToE-rules 1. Application of Transfer of Energy for SDR Transfer of Energy Rules ongoing. Discussion in TF 9/7 2. Emergency Generators Modification E-Law Presentation proposal in TF 9/7 3 Divisibility
Slide 26: Transfer of Energy for SDR
SR design Winter 2019/20 Transfer of Energy for SDR Feasibility analysis
Slide 27: ToE aspects similar for SDR and mFRR (1/2)
Many ToE-relevant aspects are similar when applying ToE on SDR compared to mFRR (1/2) • Both products are contracted by Elia, both with a prequalification procedure and comparable contractual framework • ToE-arrangements can be put in the Procedure for Constitution / SDR-contract in a similar way as
Slide 28: ToE aspects similar for SDR and mFRR (2/2)
Many ToE-relevant aspects are similar when applying ToE on SDR compared to mFRR (2/2) • Similar delivery points are used for both products • Delivery points can be located in DSO, CDSO and TSO grids, requiring similar data transfers • Both product are evaluated on a 15min basis • Similar metering re
Slide 29: Aspects to evaluate versus ToE for mFRR (1/3)
Few aspects should be considered and evaluated whether changes compared to ToE for mFRR are needed (1/3) • mFRR is activated within the 15mins before the delivery period, whereas for SDR a longer notification period is applicable: should this impact on different process steps related to ToE? SDR act
Slide 30: Aspects to evaluate versus ToE for R3 (2/2)
Few aspects should be considered and evaluated whether changes compared to ToE for R3 are needed (2/2) AS IS • For SDR on TSO access points a perimeter correction is already applied (cf. ARP contract) (but no other ToE- aspects are applied) • The ARP-contract (Art. 11.1.4) today foresees in a perime
Slide 31: Aspects to evaluate versus ToE for mFRR (3/3)
Few aspects should be considered and evaluated whether changes compared to ToE for mFRR are needed (3/3) Cf. E-law Art. 19 bis, §3, 2°-3°: • CREG determines the standard price for ToE in case of SDR • CREG determines the rules for the financial and contractual guarantees to be provided by the FSP
Slide 32: Impact ToE rules and framework
Transfer of Energy for SDR Impact ToE rules and framework
Slide 33: Indicative planning ToE in SDR for W 19-20
Indicative planning ToE in SDR for W 19-20 Go live TOE R3 1/12/2018 2018 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 Feb Mar 2019 1/12/2018 Today 15/3/2019 Submission Functionning Rules Launch of to CREG Tender Public Consultation Procedure for Constitution 15/9/2018 15/11/2018 Public consultation ARP ARP cont
Slide 34: Public consultation ToE-rules and principal changes
Public consultation ToE-rules and principal changes • Consultation period from 28/6/2018 – 18/7/2018 • Main track changes in the ToE-rules w.r.t. public consultation: Section 4: application field • Extension of the field of application towards the market segment of tertiary control by non-CIPU Techn
Slide 35: Notification procedure SDR
Notification procedure SDR Elia -> ARP Begin End of Action activation activation requested period period (effective by Elia (effective delivery) delivery) FSP -> Elia 13h45 14h00 18h00 13h57 14h03 18h03 SDR activation • When: within 3 min. after end of effective delivery. procedure • What: confirmat
Slide 36: Emergency Generators
SR design Winter 2019/20 Emergency Generators
Slide 37: Emergency Generators: Modification E-Law
Emergency Generators: Modification E-Law • Modification of the E-Law will facilitate the participation of Art.7quiquies § 2. “Iedere speler die beschikt over vermogen gelokaliseerd Emergency Generators in Strategic Reserves as SDR. in de Belgische regelzone, en die beantwoordt aan de specificaties z
Slide 38: Emergency Generators: Certification
Emergency Generators: Certification Procedure of Constitution (+framework in functioning rules) Constraints for Participation • provided by Electricity Law: Candidate supplier has to specify for each delivery point the capacity in demand response, and the capacity in emergency generators 1. installa
Slide 39: Emergency Generators: Availability
Emergency Generators: Availability DROP-TO POOL DROP-BY POOL EG POOL (DROP-BY) Off-take Off-take Off-take Target** EG Rref Rref Target Activation Activation Rref Target** Activation EG SL UM EG* EG Target** UM** A certified capacity* of emergency generators A certified capacity* of emergency generat
Slide 40: Availability of Emergency Generators
Availability of Emergency Generators Off-take • A SDR-supplier is remunerated following the availability of the capacity • Available capacity can be lower as the Rref (reduced remuneration) Available Rref • No incentive/obligation to consume Target / SL • Certification ensures availability during sc
Slide 41: Next steps
Next steps • The proposed modification will impact : • Functioning Rules: Concrete text proposals will be presented where possible • Procedure for Constitution • Contracts • Market parties are invited to provide feedback (before or during the next task force) Task Force iSR - July 9, 2018 41
Slide 42: Other
xia Other
Slide 43: Divisibility of offers
Divisibility of offers High-Level SDR Bidding Principles: For each (combination of) Delivery Point having Art. 7 quinquies: […] received a maximum SDR Reference Power as a result of the Certification, the SDR Candidate can submit one §3bis De volumes aangeboden door de deelnemers aan de procedure vo
Slide 44: Impact assessment of divisibility
Impact assessment of divisibility Illustrative example of a power plant which can offer in different configurations. • A power plant must offer all technical configurations possible at the moment of leaving the market. Reservation Cost [€/h] Pmax Config A power plant cannot offer all other technic
Slide 45: Market requests
Market requests • Combo AS-SDR? • A constructive exchange between Elia & Febeliec revealed that it is very hard to find straightforward solutions that safeguards the out-of-market character within the boundaries of the product philosophy. In contrast, it might be worthwhile for demand response provi