Cmb.tech Nv · EURONEXT:CMBT
Cmb.tech Nv — Euronav — Investor Presentation (November 2015)
19 slides from Cmb.tech Nv's investor presentation, November 2015
Slide 1: Investor Presentation November 2015
Investor Presentation November 2015
Slide 2: Forward looking statements
Forward looking statements Matters discussed in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements under U.S. federal securities laws, including the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events
Slide 3: Euronav – Largest quoted tanker company in world
Euronav – Largest quoted tanker company in world •Additional increase to order book over •Agencies consensus forecast 1.5m bpd summer driven by Tier III legislation growth 2015 & 1.3m bpd 2016; base •Order book moderate at 17% VLCC & case of 1m bpd 2017-2020 18% Suezmax fleet - natural fleet •Lower
Slide 4: Demand – robust outlook from refinery expansion & low oil price
Demand – robust outlook from refinery expansion & low oil price Demand for Oil has ALWAYS been robust Refinery Throughputs and Tanker Earnings Only 2 negative growth years since 1990 Source: Citi Demand consistently upgraded during 2015 Refinery expansion in Asia & Middle East key driver Oil @ $60
Slide 5: Demand – 1m bpd = demand for 30-40 VLCCs pa
Demand – 1m bpd = demand for 30-40 VLCCs pa 648 VLCCs Global Fleet 30 = 4.6% 40 = 6.2% 1m bpd of additional exports x 365 days = 365m barrels Source: Morgan Stanley 365m barrels / 2m barrel capacity per VLCC = 180 cargoes 180 cargoes / 4.5 average no of journeys pa for VLCC (Atlantic – Far East) = 4
Slide 6: Supply – VLCC Order book – growing but moderate
Supply – VLCC Order book – growing but moderate Source: Clarksons 5
Slide 7: Supply – Suezmax Order book – more of a 2017 story
Supply – Suezmax Order book – more of a 2017 story Source: Clarksons 6
Slide 8: Vessel Supply – manageable: financing now a barrier to entry
Vessel Supply – manageable: financing now a barrier to entry IMPORTANT - New era of financing is restrictive Order book is back end loaded Bank Debt as % of Total Shipping Finance 25 90 20 20 19 85 16 15 80 15 26% 12 75 down 10 10 10 VLCC 10 9 9 70 8 84% Suezmax 65 4 4 4 44 5 60 1 1 55 62% 0 50 Q4 Q
Slide 9: Supply of Oil = more cargoes = more demand for shipping
3 - Supply of Oil = more cargoes = more demand for shipping Oil supply growth HUGE +6.6m bpd past two years Supply outlook – Robust: hard to see output cuts Output m bpd 2013 2014 2015 2016 Comment North America 17.2 18.9 19.7 19.5 Shale growth likely negative but small % FSU 13.8 13.9 13.9 13.7 Rou
Slide 10: China – solid demand: structural support from SPR & reforms
China – solid demand: structural support from SPR & reforms Base effect: China imports 7m bpd China imports diversification continues Russia, 14% Libya, 1% Others, 20% Source: Energy Intelligence Kazakhstan, 1% Saudi Arabia, 7m bpd = 30.1 metric ton Brazil, 3% 14% Kuwait, 4% Venezuela, 6% Oman , 11%
Slide 11: What does it all mean? Freight rates will remain volatile
What does it all mean? Freight rates will remain volatile as they are set on a daily basis via an auction Source: Clarksons 10
Slide 12: What does it all mean? Rates are seasonal as well
What does it all mean? Rates are seasonal as well 11
Slide 13: Potential for Powerful Cash Generation
Potential for Powerful Cash Generation Euronav is well positioned for strong cash flow generation ■ Breakeven (including debt service): ~$27,000 for VLCC - opex $8,000 ~$22,000 for Suezmax - opex $7,400 ■ FSOs generate a consistent, high quality income stream – $52mm of EBITDA ■ Dividend policy – to
Slide 14: Company overview
Company overview
Slide 15: Chartering strategy – opportunistic rather than strategic
Chartering strategy – opportunistic rather than strategic Chartering strategy seeks to maximize returns through optimal mix of spot and fixed charters Deliberately positioned itself toward more spot exposure at this stage of the cycle Look to maximize earnings through combining high-quality as
Slide 16: Maximizing value through size – Tankers International Pool
Maximizing value through size – Tankers International Pool Fragmented Global VLCC Fleet Overview of the Tankers International Pool NIOC, 37 1 ship owner, 37 vessels China Merchants 56 Grp, 32 2 ship owner, 52 MOL; 32 3 ship owner, 24 40 16 Bahri, 31 Angelicoussis Top 10 Owners Group, 29 control 42%
Slide 17: Euronav – substantial increase in total liquidity – shares fully fungible
Euronav – substantial increase in TOTAL liquidity – shares fully fungible 70 Total value traded in Dollars in Euronav shares since January 2014* 60 EURN US 50 value traded per day EURN Average $21.4m BB 40 $Million 30 20 10 0 Source: Bloomberg based on Exchange volumes * Does not include day 1 tradi
Slide 18: Potential disruptive factors
Potential disruptive factors • OPEC production cut could drive oil price higher Oil price increase • Shale production stable above $40 per barrel • Instability in specific oil producing states cuts output • Slowdown is relative – base effect on absolute numbers is key China - slowdown • Strategic cr
Slide 19: Summary – Euronav – the largest crude tanker equity platform
Summary – Euronav – the largest crude tanker equity platform •Additional increase to order book over •Agencies consensus forecast 1.5m bpd summer driven by Tier III legislation growth 2015 & 1.3m bpd 2016; base •Order book moderate at 17% VLCC & case of 1m bpd 2017-2020 18% Suezmax fleet - natural f