Slide 1: Global Market Forecast 2014-2033
Global Market Forecast 2014-2033 Presented by: Andrew Gordon Director Strategic Marketing & Analysis Global Market Forecast Drivers & Results © AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Airbus GMF14 - Flying on Demand September 14
Slide 2: The first commercial flight was 100 years ago
The first commercial flight was 100 years ago Aviation’s benefit - 23 minutes 2 hours 4 – 12 hours 20 hours © AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Airbus GMF14 - Flying on Demand September 14
Slide 3: Air travel has proved to be resilient to external shocks
Air travel has proved to be resilient to external shocks World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions) Asian Financial Oil Crisis Oil Crisis Gulf Crisis 9/11 SARS Crisis Crisis 6.0 73% 5.0 growth through multiple crises over 73% the last ten years 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 200
Slide 4: World inflation adjusted average yield stabilising after strong decrease in the 80s and 90s
World inflation adjusted average yield stabilising after strong decrease in the 80s and the 90s Cents per RPK in 2013 US$ 25 20 15 Fairly stable 10 5 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: ICAO, IATA, Airbus © AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Slide 5: More movements, more connectivity…
More movements, more connectivity…. Airport movements Airport connectivity Avg. number of movements per airport Avg. number of destinations per airport 20,000 14 18,000 12 16,000 14,000 10 x2.4 x1.8 12,000 8 10,000 8,000 6 6,000 4 4,000 2 2,000 0 0 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2
Slide 6: More seats, more seats filled…
More seats, more seats filled… Offered seats per aircraft Load factors Avg. number of offered seats per aircraft (000) World passenger load factors (%) 250 85% 80% 200 75% 150 +17.4 70% percentage points 65% 100 60% 50 55% 0 50% 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 1980 1983 1
Slide 7: Less fuel burn, therefore less emissions…
Less fuel burn, therefore less emissions… Fuel consumption CO2 emissions Kilograms per passenger per trip (avg.) Kilograms per passenger per trip (avg.) 120 350 100 300 -31% -31% 250 80 200 60 150 40 100 20 50 0 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: ICAO, IA
Slide 8: High oil prices here for the long term…
High oil prices here for the long term… Brent oil price (nominal US$ per bbl) History Forecast 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: IHS Global Insight Energy, Airbus * Currency in nominal terms © AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and
Slide 9: Passenger traffic is outperforming GDP growth
Passenger traffic is outperforming GDP growth World real GDP and passenger traffic August 2014 Passenger Traffic % (year-over-year) 8% 8% +5.6% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% 0% 0% World real GDP World passenger traffic (ASKs) -2% -2% -4% -4% JQ1MQ2 M JQ3S Q4 N JQ1MQ2 M JQ3S Q4 N JQ1MQ2 M JQ3S Q4 N JQ1MQ2 M JQ3S
Slide 10: Underlying drivers indicate a positive economic outlook
Underlying drivers indicate a positive economic outlook Year-over-year quarterly evolution (%) World GDP* 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus * Values corrected for inflation Page 10 © AIRBUS all rights rese
Slide 11: The World of 2033 will be very different from today
The World of 2033 will be very different from today 2013 2023 2033 1- US 1- China 1- China 2- China 2- US 2- US 3- Japan 3- India 3- India 4- Germany 4- Japan 4- Japan 5- France 5- Germany 5- Brazil 6- UK 6- UK 6- Germany 7- Brazil 7- France 7- UK 8- Russia 8- Brazil 8- Russia 9- Italy 9- Russia 9-
Slide 12: A two-speed economic world
A two-speed economic world Comparison of year-over-year GDP growth Real GDP growth (%) History Forecast 10% Emerging 8% economies will Emerging economies* continue to 6% lead the pack 4% 2% Advanced 0% economies** -2% -4% 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 * 54 emerging economies ** 3
Slide 13: Diverse emerging economies spread across the globe
Diverse emerging economies spread across the globe Emerging economies (54 countries) Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus All other countries (150 countries) Page 13 © AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. September 14
Slide 14: Emerging economies are driving future growth
Emerging economies are driving future growth Today 36% 69% 42% 38% 2033 54% 67% 59% 50% GDP Population Passengers In-service fleet trips Emerging economies (54 countries) Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus All other countries (150 countries) * Nominal GDP in US$ Page 14 © AIRBUS all rights reserved.
Slide 15: Emerging regions will account for the largest share of origin and destination traffic worldwide
Emerging regions will account for the largest share of origin and destination traffic worldwide World annual RPK (trillion) 16 ICAO Airbus total traffic GMF 2014 14 Advanced – Advanced 12 2.6% p.a. 10 Emerging – Advanced 8 5.0% p.a. 6 4 Emerging – Emerging 2 6.8% p.a. 0 Source: ICAO, Sabre GDD, Airb
Slide 16: Air transport growth is highest in expanding regions
Air transport growth is highest in expanding regions Yearly RPK growth Emerging/Developing China India 2014 - 2033 Middle East Asia 6.2 Africa CIS billion people +6.0 % Latin America 2014 Eastern Europe 1 Advanced Western Europe North America Japan billion people +4.2 % 2014 Billions of people will
Slide 17: Urbanisation to increase
Urbanisation to increase World population and share of urban agglomeration evolution 10 billion 80% History Forecast 9 Rural 67% 70% Urban 8 Urban share 60% 7 60% 6 50% 49% 5 40% 4 30% 3 20% 2 1 10% - 0% 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Urban population: 1.3B 2.3B 3.5B 5.0B 6.4
Slide 18: Global Middle Class to more than double
Global Middle Class to more than double Global Middle Class** (Millions of people) 5,375 5,000 4,000 3,740 Emerging 3,000 4,450 countries 2,356 2,782 2,000 1,413 1,000 264 261 252 North America 679 697 673 Europe 0 2013* 2023 2033 7,200 7,900 8,500 World Population 33% 48% 63% % of world population
Slide 19: North Americans and Europeans are the most willing to fly today…
North Americans and Europeans are the most willing to fly today… 2013 trips per capita 10.00 22% of the population of the emerging countries took a North America 1.00 1.6 trips per capita trip a year in Europe ~1 trip per capita 2013 China 0.25 trips per capita 0.10 India 0.06 trips per capita Sourc
Slide 20: …but by 2033, China's potential will reach European levels
…but by 2033, China’s potential will reach European levels 2033 trips per capita 10.00 66% of the population of the emerging countries will take 1.00 a trip a year in China 2033 0.95 trips per capita 2033 India 2033 0.26 trips per capita 0.10 Source: Sabre (annualized September 2013 data), IHS Globa
Slide 21: International tourist arrivals expected to reach 1.6 billion people by 2020
International tourist arrivals expected to reach 1.6 billion people by 2020 International tourist arrivals (million) History Forecast 1,800 1,600 1.6 billion tourists arrivals 1,400 expected by 2020 47% 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Source: World Tourism Organization, A
Slide 22: Tourism stimulates economic and air transport growth
Tourism stimulates economic and air transport growth Economic growth catalyst Air transport growth catalyst Real GDP (CAGR* 1995-2012) ASKs (CAGR* 1995-2012) 20% 20% 18% 18% 16% 16% 14% 14% 12% 12% 10% 10% 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Internatio
Slide 23: International students have taken advantages of increased mobility
International students have taken advantages of increased mobility Number of international students and share of World Population International students (Thousands) International Students / World population ratio (Base 1 in 1975) 4,000 4.0 3,500 3.5 3,000 3.0 2,500 2.5 2,000 2.0 1,500 1.5 1,000 1.0
Slide 24: Long-haul traffic grows stronger than short haul traffic
Long-haul traffic grows stronger than short haul traffic Evolution of long-haul vs short-haul traffic (ASKs), 1973-2013, (Base 100 in 1973) Long-haul Since 1973, Long- 1000 traffic haul traffic has 900 x9.1 1% grown 800 700 per year 600 faster than short- 500 haul traffic 400 300 Short-haul traffic
Slide 25: 42 Aviation Mega-Cities in 2013
42 Aviation Mega-Cities in 2013 2013 Aviation Mega-Cities 0.8M 90%+ 42 Daily Passengers: of long-haul traffic Aviation Long Haul traffic on routes to/ from/via Mega Mega-cities Cities to/from/via 42 cities 22% of World GDP in 2013 • >50 000 daily long-haul passengers • >20 000 daily long-haul passen
Slide 26: Larger aircraft will help Aviation mega-cities and their airports grow and prosper
Larger aircraft will help Aviation mega-cities and their airports grow and prosper 2013 Aviation Mega-Cities* On the 42 Aviation Mega- Cities’ airports in 2013, 36 have scheduling constrained today *Aviation Mega-Cities International Airports IATA WSG level 1: airport infrastructure is adequate
Slide 27: The bigger the city, the wealthier the population
The bigger the city, the wealthier the population 2013 Aviation Mega-Cities and 2013 GDP per capita (real 2010 $US, thousands) Europe (9 AMC) 60 North America (12 AMC) 40 CIS (1 AMC) GDP per capita in 60 40 40 30 Aviation mega-cities 20 20 20 0 AMC Other large Region 0 AMC Other large cities Region
Slide 28: Routes between Aviation Mega-cities have higher percentages of premium pax
Routes between Aviation Mega-cities have higher percentages of premium pax Percentage of premium passengers on route types Based on 2012 Aviation Mega-Cities Percentage of 14% premium passengers 12% between AMCs 10% 8% 13% 6% 4% 2% 0% Aviation Mega-City to Aviation Aviation Mega-City <> Secondary Ci
Slide 29: … and 91 Mega-Cities by 2033
… and 91 Mega-Cities by 2033 2033 Aviation Mega-Cities 2.2M 95%+ 91 Daily Passengers: of long-haul traffic Aviation Long Haul traffic on routes to/ from/via Mega Mega-cities Cities to/from/via 91 cities 35% of World GDP in 2013 • >50 000 daily long-haul passengers • >20 000 daily long-haul passenger
Slide 30: Airbus Global Market Forecast: a 20 year aircraft demand and passenger traffic forecast
Airbus Global Market Forecast A 20 year aircraft demand and passenger traffic forecast Market Research Forecast Trends Analysis Traffic • Consumer & Travel • Economics and Surveys Econometrics • Tourism • Fuel costs • Migration • Yields • Traffic flows • Load Factors • Passenger demands • Trade and
Slide 31: Air traffic will double in the next 15 years
Air traffic will double in the next 15 years World annual RPK* (trillion) ICAO Airbus 16 total traffic GMF 2014 14 12 10 8 6 2013-2033 4 2 4.7% 0 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2014 Page 33 © AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and prop
Slide 32: Domestic PRC to become number one within 10 years
Domestic PRC to become number one within 10 years Billion RPKs 20-year annual growth* Domestic PRC 7.1% Domestic USA 1.9% Intra Western Europe 2.9% Western Europe - USA 2.9% Domestic Asia Emerging 6.9% Asia Emerging - Western Europe 4.0% Domestic India 9.5% Indian Sub-Continent - Middle East 6.8% We
Slide 33: Domestic PRC to become number one within 10 years
Domestic PRC to become number one within 10 years 2013 – 2033 Billion RPK 20-year annual growth* Domestic India 9.5% Asia Emerging - PRC 7.5% Domestic PRC 7.1% Domestic Asia Emerging 6.9% Indian Sub-Continent - Middle East 6.8% Asia Emerging - Middle East 6.8% PRC - USA 6.6% Indian Sub-Continent - U
Slide 34: Asia-Pacific to lead in world traffic by 2033
Asia-Pacific to lead in world traffic by 2033 RPK traffic by airline domicile (billions) % of 2013 20-year % of 2033 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 world RPK growth world RPK Asia-Pacific 2013 traffic 2014-2033 traffic 30% 36% 5.7% Europe 25% 3.6% 20% North America 24% 2.9% 17% Middle East 8% 7.1%
Slide 35: Global Market Forecast 2014: Highlights
Global Market Forecast 2014: Highlights GMF 2014 key numbers and 20-year change % change New aircraft deliveries World Fleet Forecast 2013 2033 2013-2033 - RPK (trillion) 5.8 14.6 151% +2,132 aircraft GMF 2014 vs. GMF 2013 Passenger Aircraft Fleet 16,855 34,818 107% New passenger aircraft 30,555 del
Slide 36: Single-aisle: 70% of units; Wide-bodies: 55% of value
Single-aisle: 70% of units; Wide-bodies: 55% of value 20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft 24,000 20,000 22,100 31,400 16,000 New Deliveries 12,000 GMF 2014 -2033 7,800 8,000 4,000 1,500 0 Single-aisle Twin-aisle Very Large Aircraft % units 70% 25% 5% Passenger aircraft (≥ 100
Slide 37: Demand for around 31,400 new aircraft
Demand for around 31,400 new aircraft Fleet in service evolution; 2014-2033 40,000 37,500 35,000 30,000 19,000 Growth 25,000 31,400 New 20,000 18,500 aircraft 15,000 12,400 Replacement 10,000 5,000 6,100 Stay in service 0 Beginning 2014 2033 Source: Airbus Note: Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats, Freigh
Slide 38: …to estimate global demand
…to estimate global demand 20-year demand by category CIS Worldwide Europe Demand North America 1,241 - Single-aisle: Asia Pacific 22,071 5,871 6,253 Middle East Twin-aisle & VLA: Aircraft Demand Africa 9,287 Latin 2,242 America 985 Twin-aisle/ VLA Single- aisle 2,294 12,472 Source: GMF 2013 Total a
Slide 39: Airbus backlog well aligned with demand forecast
Airbus backlog well aligned with demand forecast Airbus backlog - 5,892 aircraft Source: Airbus, Airbus GMF As at end August 2014 Total backlog includes undisclosed Page 41 © AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Airbus GMF14 - Flying on Demand September 14
Slide 40: Summary
Summary • Strong growth in passenger traffic – resilient growth through a difficult, but improving economic period • Demand for 31,400 new aircraft by 2033 – ~30,600 passenger aircraft and nearly 800 freighter aircraft • Replacement of ageing fleets – 20 year demand for 12,400 passenger aircraft for
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