BP plc · LSE:BP.
BP — Corporate Update (2019)
29 slides from BP's corporate update, 2019
Slide 1: Spencer Dale, Group chief economist
Spencer Dale Group chief economist
Slide 2: Energy Outlook scenarios
Energy Outlook scenarios Primary energy consumption by fuel CO2 emissions Billion toe Gt of CO2 25 50 2040 Evolving transition (ET) More energy (ME) 20 Less globalization (LG) 40 Renew.* Rapid transition (RT) Hydro 15 30 Nuclear Coal 10 20 Gas Oil 5 10 0 0 2017 ET ME LG RT 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2
Slide 3: Three windows on the energy transition
Three windows on the energy transition Primary energy demand End-use sector Region Fuel Billion toe 20 20 20 Renewables Transport Other Africa Hydro Industry Other Asia Nuclear Non-combusted India 15 15 15 Coal Buildings China OECD Gas Oil 10 10 10 5 5 5 0 0 0 2019 BP Energy Outlook © BP p.l.c. 2019
Slide 4: Energy demand by sector
Energy demand by sector Primary energy consumption by Annual demand growth and end-use sector sector contributions Billion toe % per annum 20 2.5% Transport Industry Non-combusted 2.0% 15 Buildings 1.5% 10 1.0% 5 0.5% 0 0.0% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 1995-2017 2017-2040 2019 BP Energy
Slide 5: Regional energy demand
Regional energy demand Primary energy consumption Primary energy growth and regional by region contributions Billion toe % per annum 20 3.0% Other Other Asia 2.5% Africa 15 India 2.0% China OECD 1.5% 10 1.0% 0.5% 5 0.0% -0.5% 0 1990- 2000- 2010- 2020- 2030- 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2000 2010 20
Slide 6: Increase in primary energy demand
Increase in primary energy demand Increase in primary energy demand, 2017-2040 Billion toe Income per Energy efficiency 30 head 25 20 World population 15 10 5 0 2017 demand Primary energy Population GDP/capita Energy/GDP 2040 demand Primary energy 2017 2040 2019 BP Energy Outlook © BP p.l.c. 2019
Slide 7: Global energy by fuel type
Global energy by fuel type Primary energy consumption by fuel Shares of primary energy Billion toe 20 50% Renewables Hydro Nuclear 40% 15 Coal Gas 30% Oil 10 20% 5 10% 0 0% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2019 BP Energy Outlook © BP p.l.c. 2019
Slide 8: Three windows on the energy transition
Three windows on the energy transition Primary energy demand End-use sector Region Fuel Billion toe 20 20 20 Renewables Transport Other Africa Hydro Industry Other Asia Nuclear Non-combusted India 15 15 15 Coal Buildings China OECD Gas Oil 10 10 10 5 5 5 0 0 0 2019 BP Energy Outlook © BP p.l.c. 2019
Slide 9: Five key questions and uncertainties
Five key questions and uncertainties How much ‘more energy’ does the world need? How important are plastics for the future of oil demand? What might happen if the trade disputes escalate? How quickly could renewables grow? A low-carbon energy system: what more needs to be done? 2019 BP Ene
Slide 10: Five key questions and uncertainties
Five key questions and uncertainties How much ‘more energy’ does the world need? How important are plastics for the future of oil demand? What might happen if the trade disputes escalate? How quickly could renewables grow? A low-carbon energy system: what more needs to be done? 2019 BP Ene
Slide 11: Human development and energy consumption
Human development and energy consumption UN Human Development Index and energy consumption, 2017 HDI 1.0 Line of best fit 0.8 Sample of 0.6 countries 0.4 80% of 0.2 population 0.0 0 100 200 300 400 500 Gigajoules/head 2019 BP Energy Outlook © BP p.l.c. 2019
Slide 12: Dual challenge: more energy, less carbon
Dual challenge: more energy, less carbon Primary energy demand and carbon emissions Cumulative growth rate 70% 70% 50% Primary 50% energy more energy 30% 30% 10% 10% -10% -10% less carbon CO2 -30% -30% -50% -50% -70% -70% 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 Primary energy CO2 Evolving transition
Slide 13: Five key questions and uncertainties
Five key questions and uncertainties How much ‘more energy’ does the world need? How important are plastics for the future of oil demand? What might happen if the trade disputes escalate? How quickly could renewables grow? A low-carbon energy system: what more needs to be done? 2019 BP Ene
Slide 14: Demand for oil and other liquid fuels
Demand for oil and other liquid fuels Liquids demand Liquids demand growth Mb/d Mb/d, average annual growth 140 2.0 Power Buildings Power Industry Non-combusted 120 Non-road Trucks Buildings Cars 1.5 Industry 100 Non-combusted Transport 1.0 80 Total 60 0.5 40 Transport 0.0 20 0 -0.5 2010 2015 2020 2
Slide 15: Demand for liquid fuels and plastics
Demand for liquid fuels and plastics Demand for non-combusted liquid fuels Liquid feedstocks for single-use plastics Mb/d Mb/d 30 7 25 Impact of tighter 6 plastics regulations in ET scenario 5 20 Impact of single 4 use plastics ban 15 3 10 2 5 1 0 0 2017 2040 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2019 BP En
Slide 16: Demand and supply of oil
Demand and supply of oil Mb/d 140 More energy Evolving transition 120 Single-use plastics ban Greater reform 100 Less globalization Rapid transition 80 Supply with no investments in new fields Trillions 60 of $s 40 20 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2019 BP Energy Outlook © BP p.l.c. 2019
Slide 17: Five key questions and uncertainties
Five key questions and uncertainties How much ‘more energy’ does the world need? How important are plastics for the future of oil demand? What might happen if the trade disputes escalate? How quickly could renewables grow? A low-carbon energy system: what more needs to be done? 2019 BP Ene
Slide 18: Less globalization scenario
Less globalization scenario Reduced openness and trade leads to slight reduction in trend global GDP growth Concerns about energy security adds a small risk premium (10%) to imported energy 2019 BP Energy Outlook © BP p.l.c. 2019
Slide 19: Alternative scenario: Less globalization
Alternative scenario: Less globalization Difference relative to ET scenario in 2040: Net exports (oil & gas) Global GDP and energy Mtoe GDP Energy 0 1% ET China -300 0% Less globalization -600 -1% -900 -2% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 -3% 600 -4% US 300 -5% 0 Renewables Coal Gas Oil -300 -6% Total -600
Slide 20: Five key questions and uncertainties
Five key questions and uncertainties How much ‘more energy’ does the world need? How important are plastics for the future of oil demand? What might happen if the trade disputes escalate? How quickly could renewables grow? A low-carbon energy system: what more needs to be done? 2019 BP Ene
Slide 21: Renewable energy
Renewable energy Renewables share of power generation Fuel shares in power 30% 50% Gas Geothermal Coal 25% and biomass Renewables 40% Hydro & Nuclear Solar 20% Wind 30% 15% 20% 10% 5% 10% 0% 0% 1995 2010 2025 2040 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2019 BP Energy Outlook © BP p.l.c. 2019
Slide 22: Speed of energy transition
Speed of energy transition Speed of penetration of new fuels in global energy system Share of world energy 35% Oil (1877) Gas (1899) Nuclear (1974) Hydro (1922) Renewables (2006) 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0 10 20 30 40 50 Years from reaching 1% share 2019 BP Energy Outlook © BP p.l.c. 2019
Slide 23: Five key questions and uncertainties
Five key questions and uncertainties How much ‘more energy’ does the world need? How important are plastics for the future of oil demand? What might happen if the trade disputes escalate? How quickly could renewables grow? A low-carbon energy system: what more needs to be done? 2019 BP Ene
Slide 24: CO2 emissions in ET scenario
CO2 emissions in ET scenario CO2 emissions CO2 emissions by sector Gt of CO 2 Gt of CO2 40 40 Transport Evolving transition Industry Buildings 30 30 Power 20 20 10 10 0 0 1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040 1995 2017 2040 2019 BP Energy Outlook © BP p.l.c. 2019
Slide 25: Rapid transition scenario: policy measures
Rapid transition scenario: policy measures Wide range of policy measures: broadly equivalent in terms of their implied costs and effort No silver bullet: a comprehensive set of policy measures is needed Carbon prices are key, especially in the power and industrial sectors Role for targeted r
Slide 26: CO2 emissions
CO2 emissions CO2 emissions CO2 in 2040: ET vs RT scenario Gt of CO2 Gt of CO2 40 40 Evolving transition Rapid transtion 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 Industry & Transport ET 2040 Power RT 2040 Buildings 0 1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040 2019 BP Energy Outlook © BP p.l.c. 2019
Slide 27: Global energy demand and fuel mix
Global energy demand and fuel mix Primary energy consumption by fuel Billion toe 20 Renewables 16 Hydro 12 Nuclear Coal 8 Gas 4 Oil 0 2017 Rapid transition Evolving transition 2040 2019 BP Energy Outlook © BP p.l.c. 2019
Slide 28: Hard-to-abate carbon emissions
Hard-to-abate carbon emissions CO2 emissions in RT scenario in 2040 Gt of CO2 Decarbonise power sector 20 • Renewables • Gas (and coal) plus CCUS • Energy storage and demand-side-response 16 Buildings Other low-carbon energy sources and carriers • Hydrogen 12 Industry • Bioenergy Transport 8 Efficie
Slide 29: Spencer Dale, Group chief economist
Spencer Dale Group chief economist