Origin Energy Limited · ASX:ORG

Origin Energy — Investor Day (December 2018)

87 slides from Origin Energy's investor day presentation, Dec 7, 2018

  1. Slide 1: ASX Company Announcements cover note

    To Company Announcements Office Facsimile 1300 135 638 Company ASX Limited Date 7 December 2018 From Helen Hardy Pages 87 Subject 2018 Investor Day Briefing Please find attached a release on the above subject. Regards Helen Hardy Company Secretary 02 8345 5000 Origin Energy Limited ABN 30 000 051 69

  2. Slide 2: 2018 Investor Briefing Day

    2018 Investor Briefing Day 7 December 2018

  3. Slide 3: Safety Moment

    Safety Moment Alert tone “beep, beep, beep” • Follow instructions of Wardens • Be ready to evacuate Evacuation tone “whoop, whoop, whoop” • Leave now via nearest exit • Proceed calmly to assembly area 2 7 December 2018 2018 Investor Briefing Day

  4. Slide 4: Agenda

    Agenda Time Duration Topic Presenter 9:30 5 mins Introduction Peter Rice (GM, Capital Markets) 9:35 20 mins Strategic overview Frank Calabria (CEO) 9:55 20 mins Capital management Lawrie Tremaine (CFO) 10:15 20 mins Integrated Gas Mark Schubert (EGM, Integrated Gas) 10:35 20 mins Q&A session 10:55 2

  5. Slide 5: Strategic Overview

    Strategic Overview Frank Calabria 4 7 December 2018 2018 Investor Briefing Day

  6. Slide 6: Where we are

    Where we are ➢ Target capital structure in sight ➢ Reducing costs and improving returns ➢ Two strong and diversified cash generating businesses ➢ Reliable performance and competitive cost position at APLNG ➢ Headwinds in Energy Markets – government intervention and lower forward wholesale prices ➢ B

  7. Slide 7: Our strengths

    Our strengths Energy Markets ➢ Electricity portfolio well positioned - renewables plus firming ➢ Strong gas supply position - length, cost and transport ➢ Large retail customer base positioned to capture future energy needs Integrated Gas ➢ APLNG – Australia’s largest CSG reserves base, performing i

  8. Slide 8: Fuels of the future

    Fuels of the future Renewables and gas growing in all scenarios World primary energy demand Global LNG supply and demand 20 17% 20% 15 25% 14% 25% 32% 5% Btoe 22% 10 5% 5% 29% 24% 32% 28% 5 9% 22% 25% 27% 22% 11% 0 2017 2040 2040 2040 Actual Current New Policies Sustainable Policies scenario Develop

  9. Slide 9: Global trends in energy markets

    Global trends in energy markets Opportunities from changes in technology and customer mindset • Renewables lowest cost form of new generation Decarbonisation • Gas as a firming fuel • Lower technology costs enabling new Decentralisation customer-led business models • Pervasive solar PV, and batterie

  10. Slide 10: Unprecedented government intervention

    Unprecedented government intervention • Addressing energy affordability requires a whole of industry response • ACCC noted key drivers of electricity price increases: – Network (38%), wholesale (27%), green schemes (15%), retail costs (8%) and retail margin (13%)1 • Lack of policy consistency from s

  11. Slide 11: Challenging regulatory environment

    Challenging regulatory environment Reference Price • Supportive - actively working on an industry-led comparison rate Default Market Offer • Impact depends on methodology, implementation & market response Underwriting generation • Potential to distort the market National energy policy • No clear pol

  12. Slide 12: Strategy to deliver value in the future energy world

    Strategy to deliver value in the future energy world Our strategies Connecting customers to the energy and technologies of the future Energy Markets Integrated Gas Leading Embrace a Develop Accelerate customer decentralised Low cost resources to towards clean experience and digital operator meet gro

  13. Slide 13: Energy Markets – Retail

    Energy Markets – Retail Simplified business centred around the customer ➢ Transform customer experience ➢ Target market leading cost position ➢ Grow new revenue streams – Centralised Energy Services (CES) – Solar and Storage – Adjacencies (e.g. NBN) – New energy solutions 12 7 December 2018 2018 Inv

  14. Slide 14: Energy Markets – Future Energy

    Energy Markets – Future Energy New business models to connect distributed assets and data to customers ➢ Develop platform to connect millions of distributed assets ➢ Develop leading digital and analytics capability – Leveraging machine learning and AI – Optimise future decentralised portfolio ➢ Inve

  15. Slide 15: Energy Markets – Energy Supply & Operations

    Energy Markets – Energy Supply & Operations Competitive cost of energy in a changing world ➢ Grow low cost renewables ➢ Increase generation flexibility – Optimising existing fleet – Brownfield opportunities ➢ Active management of fuel supply Quarantine Power Station Brisbane control centre 14 7 Dece

  16. Slide 16: Integrated Gas

    Integrated Gas Low cost onshore Australian producer ➢ APLNG – $500m cost reduction on track – Pursue further breakeven reductions – Invest in exploration Reedy Creek water treatment facility ➢ Replicate low cost model – Beetaloo – Other Australian onshore exploration Beetaloo Amungee well 15 7 Decem

  17. Slide 17: Transforming the business for all stakeholders

    Transforming the business for all stakeholders • Best ever safety performance in FY2018 (TRIFR 2.2) Employees • Improved employee engagement • New Purpose, Values and Behaviours • Customer culture Customers • ‘Good energy’ brand launched • Affordability – absorbing costs and helping customers that n

  18. Slide 18: Continuing our transformation

    Continuing our transformation >$150m Origin savings targeted by FY2021 ➢ Simplifying the business 1,221 1,200 ➢ Transforming culture 1,000 >$150m nominal saving ➢ >$150 million Origin-wide cost out 800 $m – Primarily retail cost to serve 600 – Excludes APLNG $500 million cost out 400 – FY2018 baseli

  19. Slide 19: Dividend update

    Dividend update Debt repayment continues to be prioritised until target capital structure is reached Provided that market conditions do not materially change or the regulatory and political environment does not adversely impact operations or prospects, we expect: FY2019 dividend • A fully franked 20

  20. Slide 20: Capital Management

    Capital Management Lawrie Tremaine 19 7 December 2018 2018 Investor Briefing Day

  21. Slide 21: Financial framework and objectives

    Financial framework and objectives 1st Quartile Total Shareholder Returns1 1. Resilient 2. Maximise cash 3. Disciplined 4. Portfolio capital structure & returns capital allocation management through cycles 5 YEAR AMBITION2 Underlying EPS Underlying ROCE Recommence & CAGR ≥ 5% ≥ 10% grow dividend 1)

  22. Slide 22: Approaching target capital structure

    Approaching target capital structure 6x Adjusted Net Debt/EBITDA2 5x • Capital management priority: - Investment grade credit through 4x business cycle - target BBB/Baa2 - Provides balance sheet resilience 3x Target (2.5 - 3.0x) - Currently BBB-/Baa31 both positive outlook 2x • Requires: 1x - Adj Ne

  23. Slide 23: Optimising our debt portfolio

    Optimising our debt portfolio • Reduce interest expense • Extend tenor Our Objectives • Maximum annual refinance <$1 billion • Reduce liquidity as leverage reduces • APLNG – lower distribution breakeven FY2019 interest expense $100 million lower: Our achievements ✓ Refinanced $4 billion bank debt at

  24. Slide 24: Optimising our debt portfolio

    Optimising our debt portfolio Existing debt maturity profile ($m) 2,500 Existing Debt Portfolio 2,000 • 3 years average maturity 1,500 (excluding hybrid) • A$3.0bn committed undrawn liquidity 1,000 • Current cost of debt 5.9% • ~50% fixed interest rate 500 - FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024

  25. Slide 25: Robust risk management

    Robust risk management Opportunity to adjust risk settings as balance sheet de-levers Commodity Business • Only hedge as required to protect investment grade • Oil, FX, LNG credit rating Margin Business • Natural gas, LNG trading, oil, FX • Hedge as required to protect margin • Electricity • Hedge t

  26. Slide 26: Maximising cash generation

    Maximising cash generation Proportionate Free Cash Flow1 and Yield2 APLNG estimated distribution3 and Origin oil (continuing operations) hedging (A$m) 2,000 15% 15% 1,000 1,500 981m 8% 800 10% 1,000 600 500 5% 400 - 200 (500) 0% - (1,000) -200 -2% FY18 FY19 FY19 FY19 (1,500) -5% US$56/bbl US$65/bbl

  27. Slide 27: Improving returns

    Improving returns Underlying ROCE1 (%) 10% • Returns trending in the right direction • Key drivers of growth: 7.7% - APLNG ramp up and higher commodity prices 5% - Eraring output step up 4.9% - Business gas sales growth 2.5% • A gap remains to > 10% aspiration 0% FY16 FY17 FY18 1) Adjusted to includ

  28. Slide 28: Disciplined capital allocation

    Disciplined capital allocation Debt servicing and reduction • Strong expected cash generation • Debt reduction requirement easing Sustaining capital • Continuing modest capital expenditure • Provides options for funding dividends and growth • Assess quality of growth opportunities against additional

  29. Slide 29: Improved Investment Decisions

    Improved Investment Decisions • Centralised capital allocation process Governance • Ranked on returns, risk and strategic fit Framework • Independent validation of economics • Periodic assessment of external environment Investment • Economic assumptions set independent to decisions Evaluation • Stan

  30. Slide 30: Capital Investment Pipeline

    Capital Investment Pipeline Moderate ongoing capex demands at <$500m Estimated annual spend FY2019 Project examples • Power of Choice Mandatory ~$50m • Ironbark permit commitments • Generation maintenance Sustain ~$250m • LPG • Solar and Energy Services • Digitisation Committed ~$150m • Beetaloo – s

  31. Slide 31: Continual assessment of portfolio

    Continual assessment of portfolio • Successful asset sale programme. Net proceeds $3.8 billion - Contact Energy, Lattice Energy, Acumen and other infrastructure assets. • Progressing potential divestment of Ironbark • Ongoing assessment of portfolio: – Ability to add value to existing assets – Growt

  32. Slide 32: Integrated Gas

    Integrated Gas Mark Schubert 31 7 December 2018 2018 Investor Briefing Day

  33. Slide 33: On track to meet commitments

    On track to meet commitments Operational commitments Financial commitments Delivering an aligned & simplified organisation, with Achieving a step change reduction in cost and breakeven streamlined processes FY18 June 2019 In the past IG today Metric Baseline Actual Run Rate Cost per Well1 2.4 1.9 1.

  34. Slide 34: Cost per well target on track

    Cost per well target on track Standard vertical unfracked Surat well FY2018 Actual Capital expenditure 2.4 (A$m/well) breakdown % Operated sustain 1 1.9 1.3 1.2 Exploration & 1.15 appraisal 1.1 Operated SIB Downstream Non-operated FY2018 FY2018 Run Rate June 2019 June 2019 Competitive 4 Baseline (Ac

  35. Slide 35: Operating cost target on track

    Operating cost target on track 1 FY2018 Actual Operating costs breakdown % Operating cost (A$/GJ) 1 Operated opex 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 APLNG corporate opex 1.0 Purchases Downstream opex Royalties & tariffs Non-operated opex FY2018 FY2018 Run Rate June 2019 Competitve Baseline (Actual) (Current) (Estimate

  36. Slide 36: Sustainable $500m p.a. cost out on track

    Sustainable $500m p.a. cost out on track • On track for a $2.8 billion run rate including benefit from well and operating cost savings • Actual cost base may vary year to year due to a number of factors including − royalties − gas purchases − scope of E&A and development (e.g. number of wells); and

  37. Slide 37: Improving prices

    Improving prices Average realised Average realised LNG Price Domestic Gas Price (US$/mmbtu) (A$/GJ) 10 6 8 4 6 4 2 2 0 0 FY17 FY18 Q1FY19 FY17 FY18 Q1FY19 36 7 December 2018 2018 Investor Briefing Day

  38. Slide 38: Production ramped up to stable operations

    Production ramped up to stable operations Spring Gully & • Thick coal seams, horizontal drilling Denison • Horizontal wells producing on average > 2x vertical wells Reedy Creek, • Various coal formations requiring tailored technologies APLNG Combabula & Peat • FY2019 development focus Asset Structur

  39. Slide 39: Connecting supply to processing capacity

    Connecting supply to processing capacity • Connecting excess supply in existing fields to processing capacity • Large bore pipeline infrastructure ~2-3x more capital efficient than constructing a new gas processing facility. Recent examples Processing capacity TCIP − TCIP pipeline: Talinga to Condab

  40. Slide 40: Stable reserves base since FID

    Stable reserves base since FID APLNG Reserves Position 20,000 15,000 3P Net PJ 10,000 2P 1P 5,000 Production 0 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 • Current gas production higher than FID assumption indicating robust reservoir and facilities performance • 1P continues to grow due to ong

  41. Slide 41: Focus on maturing new resources

    Focus on maturing new resources FY2019/FY2020 - testing six plays Westgrove 9 • Deep conventional exploration play • Currently being drilled Peat Flank • 3D Seismic currently being acquired • Two pilots commissioned, third on track for FY2019 South Burunga 2 • Deep conventional exploration play • Dr

  42. Slide 42: APLNG Commercial update

    APLNG Commercial update • Signed a long term infrastructure sharing agreement with QGC and an oil-linked gas purchase of up to 350PJ (2024-2034) • Refinanced US$1.4 billion project debt (reducing distribution breakeven by >US$2/boe) • An APLNG buyer has elected to defer delivery of 30 cargoes over 6

  43. Slide 43: Cost competitive with US shale into Asia

    Cost competitive with US shale into Asia APLNG operating 6.0 breakeven already competitive 5.0 0.8 1.8 30 4.0 0.5 US$/boe US$/mmbtu 3.0 20 4.5 2.0 3.4 3.0 10 1.0 0.0 Henry Var. Shipping Shipping US Benchmark FY2019 Guidance Hub OPEX US to Asia Glastone to Asia FOB Gladstone Midpoint SRMC Operating B

  44. Slide 44: Beetaloo – a multi decade opportunity to scale the low cost operating model

    Beetaloo – a multi decade opportunity to scale the low cost operating model Facts: • 70% interest in 18,500km2 permit • Four, stacked, unconventional hydrocarbons plays identified • Booked 6.6 TCF contingent resource relating to Velkerri B shale dry gas play Dry season CY2019 activity: • Enter Stage

  45. Slide 45: Beetaloo - multiple stacked plays increases chance of success

    Beetaloo - multiple stacked plays increases chance of success CY19 Velkerri CY19 Kyalla Shale Play1 Shale Play1 1) Well locations are illustrative only 44 7 December 2018 2018 Investor Briefing Day

  46. Slide 46: Beetaloo plan – focus on highest value plays

    Beetaloo plan – focus on highest value plays CY2018 CY2019 CY2020 CY2021 Stage 2 E&A Moratorium Velkerri liquids rich play well EPT1 Kyalla liquids rich play well Stage 3 E&A (two horizontal wells – target depends on EPT1 Stage 2) Further Development Subject to Northern Territory approvals 1) Extend

  47. Slide 47: Looking to the future

    Looking to the future • Pursuing further reductions in distribution breakeven to target APLNG ~US$35/boe via further cost outs and productivity improvements • Replicating and scaling the low-cost model Growth assets − Beetaloo - targeting two independent liquids rich gas plays − Other Australian ons

  48. Slide 48: Retail

    Retail Jon Briskin 47 7 December 2018 2018 Investor Briefing Day

  49. Slide 49: Retail overview

    Retail overview • Market remains highly competitive Market dynamics • Successfully managing share and value and progress • Improving customer experience • Growing Centralised Energy Services (CES), Solar and Broadband • Addressing customer affordability Regulation • Implications of a default offer •

  50. Slide 50: Managing share and value

    Managing share and value Improving customer Successfully managing Growing CES, Solar and experience with digital share and value Broadband investment Electricity and Natural Gas Digital Service Interactions CES Customers % Churn (weekly) 30% 85% 25% 8% 6% 20% 147K 157K 15% 125K 10% -20% 5% 30… 30… 3

  51. Slide 51: Addressing customer affordability

    Addressing customer affordability • From 1 Jan 2018: – 26% discount to VIC concession customers (standing and non-discounted offers) – 17% discount to other VIC customers (standing and non-discounted offers) – Low rate concession offers in SA • From 1 July 2018: – Lowered electricity prices in QLD a

  52. Slide 52: Implications of a Default Market Offer

    Implications of a Default Market Offer • Yet to determine default prices by region and network patch • Initial proposal: Top-down approach based on a range between AER Pricing – the median of current standing offers; and methodology – the median of current market offers • Bottom-up approach to be ex

  53. Slide 53: Potential impacts of a Default Market Offer

    Potential impacts of a Default Market Offer Estimated annual bill – Residential ($) • Origin has ~2.4 million residential customers 2,800 • Indicative impact of $60 million pre-tax for 2,600 residential customers (based on customers 2,400 above the AER midpoint) 2,200 – ~25% customers currently payi

  54. Slide 54: Step change in our Retail business

    Step change in our Retail business Simplified organisation driven by a customer and digital first mindset Transform Target market Grow new customer leading cost revenue streams experience position Maintain churn differential Targeting >$100m cost out New revenue streams to market by FY2021 • Simpler

  55. Slide 55: Moving to a simplified & digitised organisation

    Moving to a simplified & digitised organisation Today Tomorrow FY2021 Products • Multiple offers and price • Few simple offers points • Bundle benefits Channels • Digital interactions • Digital interactions dominant increasing • Brand + campaigns + targeted • Product campaigns marketing • ~8% third

  56. Slide 56: Investment in customer experience to maintain churn differential

    Investment in customer experience to maintain churn differential Good Energy brand Digitising customer Simpler offers Streamlined journeys interactions • Low rates expressed in dollars • Removing customer pain • Self-serve with rich online points information • Benefits for bundling • Digitally-led •

  57. Slide 57: Lowering cost to serve

    Lowering cost to serve Targeting >$100m cost reduction by FY2021 Energy Markets – Cost to serve • Reduction in labour ($171/cust) − Journey redesign − Shift to digital (<$145/cust) − Automate processes 46 − Outsource where appropriate • Reduction in support costs − Improve ways of working − Property

  58. Slide 58: Grow new revenue streams

    Grow new revenue streams Centralised Energy Solar Adjacencies Services and Storage • Integrated energy solutions • Opportunity to engage • Evolving customer value for high-rise developments beyond the meter proposition • Scale benefits • Strong market growth in • Low investment with • 157k residenti

  59. Slide 59: Energy Supply & Operations

    Energy Supply & Operations Greg Jarvis 58 7 December 2018 2018 Investor Briefing Day

  60. Slide 60: Australian market transitioning quickly

    Australian market transitioning quickly Renewables growing Lower forward prices Rooftop solar Rooftop changing solar NEM changing NEM demand demand Renewable capacity (GW) Electricity (A$/MWh) Average NEM Average NEM demand demand (GW) (GW) 80 28 70 150 26 60 24 50 40 22 100 30 20 20 Opportunity 10

  61. Slide 61: Energy Supply and Operations overview

    Energy Supply and Operations overview Cautious approach to investment in the current regulatory environment • 580MW of new contracted solar capacity online by Q1 2019 Renewables • 530MW of new contracted wind capacity expected online in 2020 • Australia’s largest gas-fired fleet (substantial firming

  62. Slide 62: The right portfolio for a changing market

    The right portfolio for a changing market Coal capacity factor High Strategy: Short energy, Long capacity Strategy: Long energy, Long capacity 2010 Origin portfolio Expected future state 2008 2017 OCGT capacity Volatility factor Dominant conditions since 2000 2018 Strategy: Short energy, balanced ca

  63. Slide 63: Covered for peak demand

    Covered for peak demand Capacity position • ~9,000 MW of exposure to peak prices 10,000 ($14,500/MWh) if unhedged • We manage this exposure through physical generation and hedge (swap and cap) 8,000 contracts • Cap contracts allow us to purchase energy when prices are low whilst providing 6,000 MW ‘

  64. Slide 64: Flexible energy position in a changing market

    Flexible energy position in a changing market Flexible energy position 40 SA Exposure managed • Able to flex the short energy position Short 35 position via peakers and via generation and hedging cap products • Generation is able to cover retail load VIC 30 Business Swap Hedging matching (recontract

  65. Slide 65: Long term PPAs underpin LREC requirements

    Long term PPAs underpin LREC requirements Bundled PPA prices ($) Origin’s LREC position (Large scale wind and solar) 160 (millions) 8 Thousands 120 Number of LRECs 6 80 4 40 2 - - Legacy & Contracts Recent solar deals Source: Origin and publicly released third party data Stockyard Hill Origin Demand

  66. Slide 66: Solar changing the shape of daily demand

    Solar changing the shape of daily demand Our fleet is adaptable to the changing market conditions Average day in the future NEM Evening peak provides opportunity for flexible capacity Strategy Increased solar generation creates • Maximise generation downward pressure on prices during the • Maximise

  67. Slide 67: Shoalhaven feasibility study

    Shoalhaven feasibility study Fast start pump hydro – ideally suited to changing markets Current operations • Located 150km south west of Sydney • 240MW (two units at both Kangaroo Valley and Bendeela) – Zero to full load within 15 minutes – Bendeela capable of 40MW in three minutes • Able to run for

  68. Slide 68: Potential to operate Eraring more flexibly

    Potential to operate Eraring more flexibly Short term shutdown and restart MW Short term shutdown and restart 2,800 Ramp down Ramp up 2,000 1,200 Current min generation Area of opportunity 0 • Exploring ability for Eraring to ramp up and down to intra-day price movements caused by solar • Opportunit

  69. Slide 69: Changing DDPS, freeing up gas

    Changing DDPS, freeing up gas Darling Downs Power Station (DDPS) volume and price 12 180 160 10 140 $/MWh 8 120 GWh 100 6 80 4 60 40 2 20 0 0 01/10/2018 06/10/2018 11/10/2018 16/10/2018 21/10/2018 26/10/2018 31/10/2018 05/11/2018 10/11/2018 15/11/2018 20/11/2018 25/11/2018 DDPS Volume (GWh) QLD Pric

  70. Slide 70: Our gas portfolio is a competitive strength

    Our gas portfolio is a competitive strength Energy Markets East Coast Gas Supply Portfolio PJ 300 SWQP 250 Moomba 200 Wallumbilla 150 100 50 0 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 APLNG purchase Fixed price (other) Oil linked Market/Price review Movement of gas • Strength of portfolio has enabled us to gro

  71. Slide 71: Virtual tour of the portfolio

    Virtual tour of the portfolio • As renewable penetration increases and coal generation plants retire the electricity market needs reliable flexible dispatchable generation • Origin has a range of generation and storage development opportunities but is cautious on investment in the current regulatory

  72. Slide 72: Wrap up

    Wrap up Frank Calabria 71 7 December 2018 2018 Investor Briefing Day

  73. Slide 73: FY2019 guidance re-affirmed

    FY2019 guidance re-affirmed Provided that market conditions do not materially change or the regulatory and political environment does not adversely impact operations: Origin expects Underlying Profit to be higher and further debt reduction in FY2019 Energy Markets Corporate/Other • Underlying EBITDA

  74. Slide 74: Wrap up

    Wrap up ➢ A simplified, more resilient organisation ➢ Two strong and diversified cash generating businesses – Further upside potential in Integrated Gas – Addressing headwinds and transforming Energy Markets ➢ Reducing costs and improving returns ➢ Disciplined approach to investing for growth, balan

  75. Slide 75: Appendix

    Appendix 74 7 December 2018 2018 Investor Briefing Day

  76. Slide 76: APLNG is a strong and aligned joint venture between Origin, ConocoPhillips and Sinopec

    APLNG is a strong and aligned joint venture between Origin, ConocoPhillips and Sinopec APLNG is underpinned by: Strong reserves1,3 13,310 PJ Quality assets Leading operators Upstream Operator Downstream Operator Aligned shareholders (SIPC)2 37.5% 37.5% 25% Strong offtake contracts ~7.6 mtpa ~1 mtpa

  77. Slide 77: Electricity forward price by state

    Electricity forward price by state NSW forward baseload energy prices Qld forward baseload energy prices $130 $130 $110 $110 $90 $90 A$/MWh A$/MWh $70 $70 $50 $50 $30 $30 F17 Swap F17 Average F18 Swap F18 Average F17 Swap F17 Average F18 Swap F18 Average F19 Swap F19 Average F20 Swap F20 Average F19

  78. Slide 78: Oil price risk management

    Oil price risk management FY2019 oil hedging payoff FY2020 oil hedging payoff 90 90 FY19 effective price FY20 effective price 85 FY19 effective price after hedging 85 FY20 effective price after hedging 80 80 1 1 Effective oil price (US$/bbl)1 Effective oil price (US$/bbl) 75 75 70 70 65 65 60 60 55

  79. Slide 79: Ironbark

    Ironbark • 100% owned Queensland CSG resource, adjacent to APLNG and QGC infrastructure • Ironbark is ideally located to supply to the east coast domestic market via the Wallumbilla Hub • Running a dual process: − Entered FEED for Stage 1 development − Progressing potential divestment Ironbark 30 Ju

  80. Slide 80: Glossary – Financial Terms

    Glossary – Financial Terms Term Meaning Adjusted Net Debt Net Debt adjusted to remove fair value adjustments on hedged borrowings. CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate. CPS Cents per share EPS Earnings per share Free Cash Flow Net cash from operating activities less capital expenditure. Gearing Adjusted

  81. Slide 81: Glossary – Non-Financial Terms

    Glossary – Non-Financial Terms Term Meaning 1P Proved Reserves are those reserves which analysis of geological and engineering data can be estimated with reasonable certainty to be commercially recoverable. There should be at least a 90 per cent probability that the quantities actually recovered wil

  82. Slide 82: Glossary – Non-Financial Terms

    Glossary – Non-Financial Terms Term Meaning GJ Gigajoule = 109 joules GW Gigawatt = 109 watts GWh Gigawatt hour = 103 megawatt hours JCC Japan Customs-cleared Crude LNG Liquified Natural Gas LPG Liquified Petroleum Gas LREC Large scale Renewable Energy Certificate LTM Last Twelve Months mmbbl Millio

  83. Slide 83: Important Notice

    Important Notice Forward looking statements This presentation contains forward looking statements, including statements of current intention, statements of opinion and predictions as to possible future events. Such statements are not statements of fact and there can be no certainty of outcome in rel

  84. Slide 84: Important Notice (cont)

    Important Notice (cont) All figures in this presentation relate to businesses of the Origin Energy Group (Origin, or the Company), being Origin Energy Limited and its controlled entities, for the financial year ended 30 June 2018 (the period) compared with the financial year ended 30 June 2017 (the

  85. Slide 85: Important Notice (cont)

    Important Notice (cont) Reserves Disclosures of Origin and APLNG’s reserves and resources are as at 30 June 2018. These reserves and resources were announced on 16 August 2018 in Origin’s Annual Reserves Report for the year ended 30 June 2018. Petroleum reserves and contingent resources are typicall

  86. Slide 86: For more information

    For more information Peter Rice General Manager, Capital Markets Email: peter.rice@originenergy.com.au Office: +61 2 8345 5308 Mobile: + 61 417 230 306 Liam Barry Senior Manager, Investor Relations Email: liam.barry@originenergy.com.au Office: +61 2 9375 5991 Mobile: + 61 401 710 367 www.originenerg

  87. Slide 87: Thank You

    Thank You es ©

Origin Energy — Investor Day (December 2018) on 6ix